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Cheltenham Festival
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Personally, I think this will be the most tactical race of the week, so hows it going to unfold? (Let's start at the top of the hill)
For me...
Overturn will lead with Peddlers Cross and Thousand Stars close in behind, Mille Chief and Dunguib heading Menorah with Binocular and Hurricane Fly in behind, followed by Oscar Whiskey and Khyber Kim.
Overturn and Thousand Stars will be first off the bridle, Peddlers Cross will sit in behind eager not to hit the front too soon, Dunguib will improve his position up the inside with Mille Chief who will be pushed along, Menorah, Binocular and Hurricane Fly will come swinging, stalking in behind the leading group. Mille Chief will drop away with Thousand Stars and Overturn, Peddlers Cross will hit the front with Dunguib for company, Khyber Kim and Oscar Whiskey will be ridden closer to the challengers as they jump the 2nd last. Peddlers Cross will be ridden to get a lead, Dunguib will attempt to go with him, Menorah will begin to quicken and be followed through by Binocular and Hurricane Fly both still swinging. Menorah will come back on the bridle as he reaches Peddlers Cross, followed in behind by Binocular and Hurricane Fly, Johnson will hit go on Menorah who will take off and find himself three lengths in front, McCoy will hit go on Binocular who won't quicken as impressively, Townend will come through seemingly cruising up along side Menorah who now hard ridden but staying on, Binocular is one paced in behind, passed by a staying on again Peddlers Cross and Dunguib. Menorah draws a length ahead of Hurricane Fly jumping the last, Townend hits go and finds nothing. Peddlers Cross continues to stay on past Hurricane Fly who stops up the hill, Menorah goes on to win, Peddlers Cross 2nd, Dunguib takes Hurricane Fly for third.
There you go, no need to watch it now!! ;o)
For me...
Overturn will lead with Peddlers Cross and Thousand Stars close in behind, Mille Chief and Dunguib heading Menorah with Binocular and Hurricane Fly in behind, followed by Oscar Whiskey and Khyber Kim.
Overturn and Thousand Stars will be first off the bridle, Peddlers Cross will sit in behind eager not to hit the front too soon, Dunguib will improve his position up the inside with Mille Chief who will be pushed along, Menorah, Binocular and Hurricane Fly will come swinging, stalking in behind the leading group. Mille Chief will drop away with Thousand Stars and Overturn, Peddlers Cross will hit the front with Dunguib for company, Khyber Kim and Oscar Whiskey will be ridden closer to the challengers as they jump the 2nd last. Peddlers Cross will be ridden to get a lead, Dunguib will attempt to go with him, Menorah will begin to quicken and be followed through by Binocular and Hurricane Fly both still swinging. Menorah will come back on the bridle as he reaches Peddlers Cross, followed in behind by Binocular and Hurricane Fly, Johnson will hit go on Menorah who will take off and find himself three lengths in front, McCoy will hit go on Binocular who won't quicken as impressively, Townend will come through seemingly cruising up along side Menorah who now hard ridden but staying on, Binocular is one paced in behind, passed by a staying on again Peddlers Cross and Dunguib. Menorah draws a length ahead of Hurricane Fly jumping the last, Townend hits go and finds nothing. Peddlers Cross continues to stay on past Hurricane Fly who stops up the hill, Menorah goes on to win, Peddlers Cross 2nd, Dunguib takes Hurricane Fly for third.
There you go, no need to watch it now!! ;o)
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Overturn will lead with Peddlers Cross and Thousand Stars close in behind, Mille Chief and Dunguib heading Menorah with Binocular and Hurricane Fly in behind, followed by Oscar Whiskey and Khyber Kim.
No way Oscar Whiskey gonna be held up that far back. Also no way Dunguib that far forward. If the tactics are to go quick on Overturn then Peddlars won't be close up in behind, if they control the race with Overturn then yes Peddlars sits right there. For me Thousand Stars and Overturn won't go that quick and will suit handier types. Have a feeling AP will ride Bino quite handy, perhaps stalking Peddlars as they will be aware that Overturn will run to suit Peddlars. But the quicker they go the more that suits Bino, Hurricane Fly and Menorah. So I would suspect its going to be a fairly slow first half mile.
No way Oscar Whiskey gonna be held up that far back. Also no way Dunguib that far forward. If the tactics are to go quick on Overturn then Peddlars won't be close up in behind, if they control the race with Overturn then yes Peddlars sits right there. For me Thousand Stars and Overturn won't go that quick and will suit handier types. Have a feeling AP will ride Bino quite handy, perhaps stalking Peddlars as they will be aware that Overturn will run to suit Peddlars. But the quicker they go the more that suits Bino, Hurricane Fly and Menorah. So I would suspect its going to be a fairly slow first half mile.
Sorry I meant to say all in all nice post, you've clearly thought about it :-)
Interesting - But believe Binocular is the Nap of the meeting, menhorah second with Peddlers in third.
Yeah, I must admit I struggled to place Oscar Whiskey, although I do think Peddlers Cross will want to be up near with the pace; surely with the speed of the market principles he'll want to ensure the test remains once Overturn has burnt out?
Like I say, depends how fast Overturn goes. If he goes hard and takes on Thousand Stars then he'll sit front of mid div. If they go even or slow/fast then he'll be handy. I can't believe McCoy or Geraghty will let them get away with controlling the race though. Menorah is adaptable and RJ won't have him too far back. The one I would worry about is HF if PT wants to hold him up too far back believing its going to be a strong pace which doesn't materialise.
This is why ive backed Menorah; I think he has the most strings to his bow and agree however the race is run he should be able to give a good account of himself!
It might be naive, but I can't see Peddlers Cross winning the race unless it becomes a real test! Overturn will have to blunt the turn of foot of Binocular and Hurricane Fly!
It might be naive, but I can't see Peddlers Cross winning the race unless it becomes a real test! Overturn will have to blunt the turn of foot of Binocular and Hurricane Fly!
Gash Boy - Thousand Stars participation could well be the key to the race if he's sacrificed as a pacemaker which is likely - I hope he doesn't harry Overturn too much. You'd think connections of Hurricane fly would know exactly what's best for him as he probably has more speed AND (perceived) stamina than anything else in the race. That doesn't make him infallible though as there are other considerations that must be a concern with him, such as the undulating course, the quicker ground and whether he would be suited by an end-to-end gallop. So what do they want? A speed test in a falsely run race (which I'd doubt, but I'm hoping for) or a true test of stamina? The latter could possibly blunt his finishing speed as he doesn't convince me as being a thorough stayer, even though he's won over much further in very soft ground. He's a fascinating contender though, in a fascinating race and is for me, the classiest horse in the line-up.
I think a strongly run race will play into the hands of all three rather than Peddlars. The way Peddlars wins is by slow first half mile and nicking lengths down the hill.
DWM767 - I agree with you about Menorah in that he won't care how the race will be run.....no farting about with him as he'll just get on with the job like a real professional. Whether he's good enough to win, I still have doubts.
Yeah, I am hoping the course will take something out of Hurricane Fly, and I don't feel without hope, and im hoping Binocular isn't at his brilliant best, but at the prices I feel Menorah represented the best value, given he will be there or there abouts!
if i was the owner of thousand stars no way in the world would i all ow him to be used as a pacemaker he is only rated 2lb below peddlers cross has course form and if ruby rides no way can i see him being told ruby you go make the running and set it up for a.p and paul townend, theres a good boy ruby do as your told lad , , think you will find that overturn will make the running at a fast pace and thousand stars will be in midfield .
FW - I hope you're right about those tactics and I'm wrong. It's all about opinions and I don't fancy Thousand Stars a bit. Does anyone think (what I do) and that Overturn will set a strong gallop (if left alone) and then have a breather on the downhill run? I can't believe he will be an out & out pacemaker, and he could leave himself with some gas in the tank on the run to the last. As I've mentioned, it may well not be enough but that's how I see this race panning out - the others may give him a squeak.
Think it is conceivable that Overturn could get an easy lead here and the others may be watching each other too much - McCoy was very wary of this at Kempton but he has more concerns to deal with here. He will need to be in better form than at Wincanton to profit from it though.
There's no way other jockeys are going to let Overturn dictate the pace on his own cos that's how he wins his races. Thousand Stars can be handy, like he was time before last at Leopardstown and still run his race. He would have a better chance going from the front and trying to control the pace than mixing it with the closers. And fwiw if Overturn is the only one to go on there's no way it's going to be scorching, that won't be in the interest of Peddlars. It will only be scorching if TS (or another) and Overturn take each other on.
This'll be my first Festival on the forum and I'm fascinated as to how many are really savouring this race and anticipating how it'll be run. I haven't experienced this before, though there was some debate about the Hennessy, but nothing compared to this. I really hope the ground is good and Thousand Stars isn't prominent.....I can't wait! 
Ive taken a punt on it not raining Harchi and backed Clerks Choice ew at 80-1, could run into a place if they go off too fast,only other bet so far is Junior at 13-1 and 10-1
You played yet??
You played yet??
gashboy, i dont think thousand stars will be at all prominent as all his races exept the last one and i think he was in front more on sufferance than intent, he is clearly a much better horse with waiting tactics he is my ew choice for the race ,thinkn overturn will lead but he could be strongley pressed by oscar whiskey who stays well and it may be that b.geraghty stays right on peddlers cross quarters and these 2 make it a grinding race from the 2nd last similar to when punjabi, c.halo,and bino fought out the finish a few years back its such a hard race to call so many ifs and buts ,i
i will have another bet in the race but i still have not made up my mind yet .
i think binocular has a much stiffer test than last year and he is a much shorter price than last year ,think ill wait till on the day and see what drifts to a value price as can see strong irish money for h.fly .
i will have another bet in the race but i still have not made up my mind yet .
i think binocular has a much stiffer test than last year and he is a much shorter price than last year ,think ill wait till on the day and see what drifts to a value price as can see strong irish money for h.fly .
Zilzal - I've had whopper prices about both of them but my judgement's been rank lately and I've totally fcuked up my ante-post portfolio, even though I'm £34 up on the race right now, whoever wins! I had four figures sums on both and they were FREE bets! I thought since they'd come in, I'd be able to back again at the bigger odds and I've collapsed my potential profit. I'm now gonna have to go in again in the next few days, but at those prices, I won't be needing to stake much for a handsome profit. I've had many bets at 200+ on Clerk's Choice and I've had Overturn at 200+, 300+ and even 490!
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