Cheltenham Festival
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11 Mar 11
10:28
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Date Joined:
11 Mar 11
As it stands I couldn't be in a much better position betting wise for the Ryanair.
Things started off terrible. In January and early February I decided that Albertas Run was still the horse to beat and was over priced. I placed 2pts e/w at 16/1 as well as putting him in some multiples at nice prices. Since then I found out that Albertas Run was touch and go whether he'd make Cheltenham and if he did whether he'd go for the Gold Cup instead. Readind some quotes from connections it seems that they are making Aintree their priority.
So back to the drawing board for me. Looking at the remaining field I discounted Poquelin on the grounds of not being convinced that he should improve on last years running (I believe last years run to be the best that he can offer) and I just see him as a classy hadicapper, nothing more.
I couldn't have Riverside Theartre as top class either and Tranquil Sea would only be a threat in a bog which we are never likely to get at the festival. Somersby would be a threat, but I felt that they would run in the Champion Chase so left that alone.
I liked J'Y Vole's run last year and was badly hampered at two key stages last year. He would have definately finished 2nd at the least. How close he would have been to Albertas i'm not sure, but it was enough for me to invest 1 pt e/w at 16/1 and later another 2pts e/w at 12/1 as well as including in some multis.
Having looked closer at the race I really liked the look of Kalahari King. IMO this is his trip and could never understand why Ferdy persisted running against the top 2 mile chasers. Even though it's patently clear a Champion Chase finishes too soon he still managed to get a 3rd place in last years running finishing ahead of Master Minded. The fact that the Ryanair was his only entry helped make my decision and the more I have looked into the race the more Kalahari King has become my NAP for the meeting. I have placed 5 pts e/w at 9/1 and a further 3 pts e/w at 8/1 including him in some multiples.
So my overall picture for the race is:
Kalahari King 5pts e/w at 9/1
Kalahari King 3 pts e/w at 8/1
J'Y Vole 1 pt e/w at 16/1
J'Y Vole 2pts e/w at 12/1
Albertas Run 2 pts e/w at 16/1
Now my dilemma is this...with the race cutting up as badly as it is. Should I do anything about Poquelin. My opinion of him hasn't changed in that I don't think he is good enough to win, but with him being the only horse at the top of the market I would feel really bad not having done something to insure my other bets.
What should I do?
Things started off terrible. In January and early February I decided that Albertas Run was still the horse to beat and was over priced. I placed 2pts e/w at 16/1 as well as putting him in some multiples at nice prices. Since then I found out that Albertas Run was touch and go whether he'd make Cheltenham and if he did whether he'd go for the Gold Cup instead. Readind some quotes from connections it seems that they are making Aintree their priority.
So back to the drawing board for me. Looking at the remaining field I discounted Poquelin on the grounds of not being convinced that he should improve on last years running (I believe last years run to be the best that he can offer) and I just see him as a classy hadicapper, nothing more.
I couldn't have Riverside Theartre as top class either and Tranquil Sea would only be a threat in a bog which we are never likely to get at the festival. Somersby would be a threat, but I felt that they would run in the Champion Chase so left that alone.
I liked J'Y Vole's run last year and was badly hampered at two key stages last year. He would have definately finished 2nd at the least. How close he would have been to Albertas i'm not sure, but it was enough for me to invest 1 pt e/w at 16/1 and later another 2pts e/w at 12/1 as well as including in some multis.
Having looked closer at the race I really liked the look of Kalahari King. IMO this is his trip and could never understand why Ferdy persisted running against the top 2 mile chasers. Even though it's patently clear a Champion Chase finishes too soon he still managed to get a 3rd place in last years running finishing ahead of Master Minded. The fact that the Ryanair was his only entry helped make my decision and the more I have looked into the race the more Kalahari King has become my NAP for the meeting. I have placed 5 pts e/w at 9/1 and a further 3 pts e/w at 8/1 including him in some multiples.
So my overall picture for the race is:
Kalahari King 5pts e/w at 9/1
Kalahari King 3 pts e/w at 8/1
J'Y Vole 1 pt e/w at 16/1
J'Y Vole 2pts e/w at 12/1
Albertas Run 2 pts e/w at 16/1
Now my dilemma is this...with the race cutting up as badly as it is. Should I do anything about Poquelin. My opinion of him hasn't changed in that I don't think he is good enough to win, but with him being the only horse at the top of the market I would feel really bad not having done something to insure my other bets.
What should I do?
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Replies: 30
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You've already invested 26 points, in order to cover that you would have to lay out another 7 odd.
If you dont think it can win then stand by your opinion, if the unexpected happened then you are losing more |
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Another thing that i'll hopefully have to think about is my multiples. The above runners are tied in with a lot of races on the Tuesday and Wednesday so I could have a large amount running onto at least one of them.
Agree with your sentiments about having already layed out a lot. I'm now at the stage where I have finished my betting and studying and now I am doubting what I have done! |
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Happens a lot with self doubt
 You cant cover every eventuality and could drive yourself crazy trying to, ask yourself this, would i back Poquelin under normal circumstances in this field??, if its no then you have answered your questionIf you do have a few quid running on then you could always place lay your three at the off(im assuming your multiples are ew) I could understand a cover on a big priced horse, but a fav id leave out, you've convinced yourself he's made the market and bet accordingly |
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Thanks Zilzal.
I made a thread with my multiples last night to keep tabs with whether they are profitable or not. They are all each way bar one. |
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Personally I can't see Kalahari King finishing outside the places, so you could have a win bet on Poquelin if you're as confident as I am about that; you're only trying to cover 10pts then, 3pts win.
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That's an interesting idea dwm.
To be fair Zilzal is right in what he is saying. I didn't back Poquelin in the first place because I don't see him as the winner so I shouldn't change my mind on that. If Albertas Run turns up fully fit, which I don't think we'll happen, I think he will win. If AR misses the race I am close to certain that KK will win. |
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If you don't think Poquelin can win then backing him with 1 point is a waste. For me personally he has done nothing wrong and brings in solid form. However if you have a different opinion then surely anything on Poquelin is giving away profit. You are backing him at effectively the shortest price that has been available even though you don't think he's good enough.
You have two bets which are in-the-money, if you really want to hedge out, lay your own selections in-running which if supported by your analysis of the race should trade alot shorter. |
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I have heard that there is going to be a very interesting
Last minute entry by mr Henderson! |
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Didn't know that there was a late entry stage!
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VOY POR!
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Supplementary stage today,VPU is you thinking of??
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;-) I backed him last night at 120s so hopefully all goes to plan. We'll have to wait and see!
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voy por ustedes has been supplimented
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Nice price baduk, but VPU's best days are well behind him.
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If Henderson has got a tune out of VPU to justify a supplementary entry then we should all sit up and take note.
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Was just about to say the same thing. They wouldn't have paid the 13k if that was the case and I have heard they're v happy with him.
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voy por supplemented because... Henderson no longer has a runner or Voy por showing him signs.. or both?
Still think he might struggle to win it, unless the change of scene has revived the old boy. I'd cheer him in though he deserves one more big one imo. |
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VPU is my favourite horse of all time behind Azertyuiop. There is no way on God's green Earth that VPU will be able to win at Cheltenham again. I think it's shameful that he's still running. He owes connections nothing.
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Tranquil Sea definately out now.
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At what point in the next week does captain cee bee become the obvious favourite for the ryanair?
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If CCB was confirmed for the Ryanair he'd only be a 10/1 shot in my book.
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ill be surprised if albertas doesnt line up now after AP's comments the last day, he obviously wants him to..
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Poquelin's price is no good now but to beat Great Endeavour, a very highly thought of horse, off 163 is Grade 1 form I'd say and he's clearly improved as an 8 year old. There are no good things in this race and he was clearly outpointed by Albertas Run last year but I feel he's a better horse now and Albertas Run's form this year has been very poor.
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Looking at the running styles and tactics I can't fit Poquelin as the winner.
Albertas Run is the horse that ensures a fast, true run race, where I believe Poquelin will show his best running, but still not quite good enough to reverse form with Albertas Run. I believe the race run at anything slower than that will play into Kalahari King's hands. |
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I have been all over Gauvain since his run over 3M at Ascot against Riverside and 25/1 very nice thank you.
Turning in for home he was going as well and just didn't get home. Riverside is probable the most improved horse this term and Gauvain must go well on that evidence and now only 12/1. Got cheltenham form and will go on ground and has a hell of a chance. Had he been a Nicholls horse he would be 5/1 so value even at this late stage. |
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I thought Gauvain's run at Ascot was 2 1/2 miles not 3. Doubt he'll be good enough but good luck.
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That'll do nicely
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great performance by albertas
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Well done CE, if you look at the politice forum i had the f/c
Hope you didnt waste any money on Poquelin |
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Well done zilzal1!
No I didn't put any money on Poq. I stuck to my original decision. This is identical to last year in that I was losing at the festival until after the Ryanair. Thank you Albertas Run....although I was screaming for Kalahari King to nut him on the line...is that greedy?! |