Cheltenham Festival
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10 Mar 11
22:15
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20 Sep 06
this year more than ever cheltenham bankers seem thinner and thinner on the ground. I don't really believe in the concept of a cheltenham
"banker" in any case given the competitive nature of the races there, but it seems to me given the unconvincing profile of many of the
favourites this year we could well be looking at some big priced shocks.
my best outsiders are:
khyber kim champion hurdle
the trainer is very bullish about this one and although you can say that's pretty much his outlook all the time when it comes to his runners, the vibes coming out of the stable are most positive. Clearly comes to himself in the spring and if he hadn't run so poorly at kempton 18s would look ridiculous. ok menorah, peddlers cross and hurricane fly could all be very special but equally that could turn out to be not the case. horses that do well at cheltenham tend to repeat the does year on year and although it seems a hard task to reverse the form with binocular, that's factored into the price. my recommendation is that you back khyber kim each way.
mad max champion chase.
ran a very good race indeed in last years arkle before clouting the 2nd last. his huge size makes him tailor made for cheltenham and although his lack of turn of foot will make it difficult for him to win, the seemingly complete lack of public confidence behind any of the front few in the market gives the race a very open look.
quito de la roque rsa chase
although this does feature one of the main bankers in the shape of time for rupert, who does look seemingly bomb proof, this one might represent some each way value. I was impressed with his professionalism and attitude last time and if he does take his chance, will be staying on up the hill, as he clearly stays very well.
gold cup china rock
i'm not convinced by any of the market leaders here. kauto and denman are clearly looking long in the tooth, imperial commander obviously has a good chance on the form book but can you see him as a dual gold cup winner? i can't. long run has poor course form and the fact that he has an amateur in the saddle for this massive test is another worry. so then you look further down the list, nothing looks convincing, until I came to china rock. this one probably won't stay the distance but ran very well for a long time on his last start and I can see him trading very short in running (went to at least 1.5 last time)
any other ideas?[smiley:crazy]
"banker" in any case given the competitive nature of the races there, but it seems to me given the unconvincing profile of many of the
favourites this year we could well be looking at some big priced shocks.
my best outsiders are:
khyber kim champion hurdle
the trainer is very bullish about this one and although you can say that's pretty much his outlook all the time when it comes to his runners, the vibes coming out of the stable are most positive. Clearly comes to himself in the spring and if he hadn't run so poorly at kempton 18s would look ridiculous. ok menorah, peddlers cross and hurricane fly could all be very special but equally that could turn out to be not the case. horses that do well at cheltenham tend to repeat the does year on year and although it seems a hard task to reverse the form with binocular, that's factored into the price. my recommendation is that you back khyber kim each way.
mad max champion chase.
ran a very good race indeed in last years arkle before clouting the 2nd last. his huge size makes him tailor made for cheltenham and although his lack of turn of foot will make it difficult for him to win, the seemingly complete lack of public confidence behind any of the front few in the market gives the race a very open look.
quito de la roque rsa chase
although this does feature one of the main bankers in the shape of time for rupert, who does look seemingly bomb proof, this one might represent some each way value. I was impressed with his professionalism and attitude last time and if he does take his chance, will be staying on up the hill, as he clearly stays very well.
gold cup china rock
i'm not convinced by any of the market leaders here. kauto and denman are clearly looking long in the tooth, imperial commander obviously has a good chance on the form book but can you see him as a dual gold cup winner? i can't. long run has poor course form and the fact that he has an amateur in the saddle for this massive test is another worry. so then you look further down the list, nothing looks convincing, until I came to china rock. this one probably won't stay the distance but ran very well for a long time on his last start and I can see him trading very short in running (went to at least 1.5 last time)
any other ideas?[smiley:crazy]
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China Rock might well get the goodish ground it wants looking at the forecast. Definitely a shout for a place.
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China Rock by the same sire as WOA, Presenting, and I think the dam is a stronger influence for stamina than the 2006 winner. 5 years on, I too think it could be Mouse again in the Gold Cup.
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I'm a Quito de la Roque fan but would have preferred him in the 4 miler.
Like Lord Nellerie at a big price in X-Country Chase. |
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on tidal bay £500 ew at 33/1 nr n/bet in the gold cup
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Pearlysteps
my stairway to heaven in the 4miler |
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Coral Cup
Arcalis e/w A speculative punt but he is one i've been waiting on for a while with this race in mind - just hope he turns up for the gig Form at Cheltenham reads 6-2-7-5-4-5-1 Was 6th/14 in the Cleeve hurdle last time here over 3m Granted at 11 he is nt getting any younger but off a mark of 138 he has to be of interest here as he ran to a mark much higher than that at Newbury 2 runs ago over 3m 1f when 3rd to Big Bucks beaten over 5l Duc Du Regniere 154 was 3l in front in 2nd Duke Of Lucca 148 was over 4l behind Arcalis and Kayf Aramis 148 was over 9l behind Was 2nd here last year in the County Hurdle off a 2lb lower mark behind Thousand Stars - made up a staggering amount of ground from 2 out that day to go down but just 2l in 2nd Followed that up by going on to finsh a decent 3rd at Ayr in the Scottish Champion hurdle handicap G2 off this mark of 138 beaten just 6l - behind Overturn and Gloucester when giving them 8+9lbs respectively Likes the track, will like the ground, fair mark, think the trip will be perfect Decent e/w claims Champion Bumper Divine Rhapsody 33/1 e/w Have no idea if this is an intended runner but can take the chance with NRNB Put up a massive effort fto to win the Goffs Land Rover bumper at Punchestown in April on debut, on good ground and has been put away since After race at Punchestown Tue, 20th Apr, 2010 (1st) He's a gorgeous horse. Richard Walshe has been an unlucky owner and it's great for him,. My brother Ronan broke him after the Land Rover last year and said of all the horses he's broken that this horse was mighty. I'm delighted. I said to Richard that's he's a big weak baby as he was born in June. He's only had one canter on grass, when he worked with Rathlin, and I was pleased with what he did. He hasn't eaten the last few days and was only on hay and grass. He's a big baby and had done enough work. I think he'll be a lovely horse next year and today is just a bonus. P J Rothwell So sounds like he is a very good prospect with more to come this year The form of that race could nt have worked out better and Divine Rhapsody has some of the best for on show in the bumper imo Divine Rhapsody was an easy winner and was stil as green as grass Double Double 3l behind in 2nd won nto Earls Quarter 5 1/2l behind in 3rd won nto Scoter Fontaine 8l behind in 4th won nto Dylan Ross 8 1/2l behind in 5th won nto and follwed up the time after again So the form looks rock solid Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Mossley e/w Been a serious overreaction to this fellas last run imo where he quite clearly got bogged down in attrocious ground so that run can be quiet easily forgiven i think The only Course and Distance winner in the field which must be a big plus and looked to really appreciate the trip That was in the G2 AB trial- he was coming off 2 easy wins, 1 in a bumper and 1 in a hurdle - when he easily disposed of Join Together who is as low as 8/1 for the race now and Mossley was giving him 4lbs as well Mossley still looked green on this occasion, he travelled beautifully but idled once he hit the front but i thought the way he quickened clear under easy hand riding when joined on the run in was impressive and gave the idea there was plenty more in the tank Join Together(receiving 4lbs from Mossley) 1,1/4l behind in 2nd won nto Teaforthree 3 1/4l behind behind - 2nd nto Highland Valley 9 1/4l behind in 4th - won nto beating Ardalur who won the weekend Golden Chieftan 22l behind in 7th - won lto Badgers Cover 22 1/2l back in 8th - was 2nd nto and won lto Back in Focus?? Doubts whether it'll turn up depending on ground Johnson said: "He would run in the Albert Bartlett if it was easy ground, it would have to be on the soft side - he loves heavy ground. Bobs Worth?? Undecided what race he goes for Oscars Well - going for the Neptune Court in Motion - well beaten on 1st try over 3m in conditions that would have suited So Young - going for Neptune I think all things considered he offers a lot of e/w value with doubts over some of those at the top of the market and i think the race is going to cut up a good bit with some of those towards the head of the market taking up alternative engagements. |
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China Rock to trade @ 1.5 in running?!! Hope so I'm on at 610 could get a good trade out of that!
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Supreme - Dunraven Storm - for me his 2nd to Cue Card, although well beaten, is similar form to the best of the Irish/Henderson, he's also the only horse to have beaten Recession Proof this season, a fast run 2m should suit him well and he's still open to improvement. A forgotten horse at a big price.
Arkle - Blazing Tempo 40/1 - maybe more likely to go the hcp route, but given this isn't an exceptional race, field won't be large, it's not impossible she comes here, and in an average renewal I don't think she's as far away as her price suggests. Mares Hurdle - Santera 40/1 - has improved an infeasible amount this season having been a fairly rubbish horse for 3 years, so plenty doubts, but looks a big price on her close 3rd to Caroles Legacy & Banjaxed Girl in Nov. RSA - Quito De La Roque 20/1 - agree with comms above, for me only a couple of lbs behind TFR on form, will improve for a proper pace/stiff track but yes ground is the worry. But overpriced. Fred Winter - What A Charm 33/1 - disappointing all 3 hurdle runs, but he's been ridden from the front (2m November Hcp winner on flat) to make it a test. Wont need to do that here -p lenty pace on in this race, big field, stiffer course, and a 105 flat horse running off 115 I can see a big run. Pertemps Final - Kayf Aramis 25/1 - won it in '09, 5th last year, down 7lbs and running up to his best on ground he hates recently. Gold Cup - Pandorama 14/1 - well Kauto/Denman can't win, Long Run won't run anywhere near his best here, so apart from Imperial (likely winner) and maybe Kempes I dont see what else he has to beat. |
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Kim Muir - Saddlers Storm, still 20s [;)]
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Crescent Island in the 3m H'cap chase on Tuesday
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what a charm in the fred winter. currently available at 33/1 (just had 130e/w) Won the irish nov handicap off 97 and gets into what is prob the weakest race at the festival off 115. had its 3 runs to get a mark and connections will surely reach back for the cheek pieces. can see this being heavily backed.
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Double Double in the Bumper @ 25/1.
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Local Hero hated the ground last time but is still a class act 33/1 nrnb available.
Nomecheki 20/1 for the Grand Annual is held in high regard by his trainer. Galaxy Rock Jonjo seldom goes home without a winner 20/1 looks worth a few quid. |
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As posted on other threads French Opera in Champion Chase @ 25/1 is huge
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Local Hero has tended to jump right so that would be a bit fo a worry, 33-1 could still be value though
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I like Local Hero, and I noticed someone gave a shout for Quito De La Roque; im on a massive prices but we need them to forget to turn the hoses off!!
I'd like to chuck in West With The Wind for the Arkle? Been quietly going about his business improving each time; he's got to improve hugely once again, but in a race with not much depth I think he could run a place! Been money for him in recent days too I hear! |
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like the rationale with the race not looking too strong, problem is west with the wind has had so many runs, i'd actually like something with a more lightly raced profile and for me, finians rainbow has much the most potential of anything in the field.
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Rondetto - where's Galaxy Rock running?
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Although im heavily into Midnight Chase for the GC, im starting to fear Tidal Bay, have watched this muppet fly up the cheltenham hill before, and if he could just spend a little less time in the air when fencing, and managed to keep interested for 3m 2f he would have a great shout.
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Superior Wisdom in Pertemps ( 33s ew )
Not much mileage on the clock despite 11 yo . Has run well in previous festival ( staying on 5th in CORAL Cup ) Just getting into race lto when fell. Consistent, rarely out of frame. Had a spell novice chasing, and ran in last years Scottish National ( fell early on ) but connections wisely reverted back hurdling.Won Pertemps qualifier at Exeter. No doubts about trip, or course, and small yard add value to price. |
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Kayef in the Fred Winter, will love the hill.
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La Vecchia Scuola Mares Hurdle. The only other classy mare in the race imo 2nd in the cesarewitch, if returning to hurdles in the same form and improving jumping could run a massive race at 33/1!
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Not very imaginative but Tiday Bay is still a very good e/w shout for the Gold Cup. Yes, he's a monkey but is proven to come up that hill just about as well as any chaser in training. In a renewal where none of the market leaders fit the key trends for GC winner, Tiday Bay is well worth an e/w nibble at the 20's still available.
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star neuville at 14 , i paid for the preview night reports and its tipped up in nearly all of them , could well be competing for fav/ 2nd fav on the day, im on at 25s not for much , but as fred says , value
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rose of the moon but all his fancys prices have gone now
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Arcalis at 40s e/w in Coral
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Tarablaze @ 33's in the Pertemps
Horner Woods @ 25's in the Kim Muir if he gets in |
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weird al and what a friend
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Any idea who rides Saddlers Storm in the Kim Muir Satellite?
Derek O'Connor or Andrew Duff perhaps? Or maybe AJ Martin will give it to Nina? |
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Derek O Connor rides [;)]
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I also fancy Tidal Bay to run a big race but I would not back it now as I can see going a lot bigger in running
Also Ashkazar in the World Hurdle |
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Zanir in vob.... and sir harry ormesher in his chosen race (CORAL OR PERTEMPS)
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ashkazar world hurdle although the really big prices are gone now 25s and 14s hills w/o big bucks
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what a result. hope a couple of you followed me in. Indian and a few beers for me. enjoy the rest of the festival.
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Wedontneednostinkinbadges
take a bow sir |
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I didnt even see this thread, top bombing Wedontneednostinkinbadges
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aye top tipping there wedontneed
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Mythical Dunce to back a winner?
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were you born an obnoxious troll and keyboard cowboy kev or did you just become one through choice? i'd love to see you front up to me so bold in real life, would be well funny
 anyway have emailed betfair asking them to boot your little self off the forum to make everyone else's enjoyment of it so much better. |