Cheltenham Festival
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10 Mar 11
01:40
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Date Joined:
28 Jun 10
I must admit, I'm getting older and the old certainty with which I used to view things isn't what it was but I am of the honestly held view that only Hurricane Fly could theoretically be good enough to down a 100% Binocular on the day.
Somewhat like Imperial Commander (who I also fancy atrongly) I don't think Binocular gets the credit he deserves because when he isn't on his game he can look very average. In my view he needs certain conditions to show his best. He needs a strong gallop and on decent ground and he often doesn't get that outside of the festival.
Granted there are some talking horses with big reputations but there were a few of those last year as well and like last year I expect those to go away with excuses ringing in their ears:
Menorah, Oscar Whiskey, Dunguib. Based on last years Supreme is there really any reason why one of these should be much better than the others? I don't really think so. Perhaps it really was that good a race. I'm inclined to think not.
Peddlers Cross. Clearly a decent sort over further but I remain to be convinced that he has the raw speed to beat a champion of the calibre of Binocular in a Champion Hurdle.
Hurricane Fly. This for me is the potential fly in the ointment. That Go Native could go on and win a Supreme after this one kicked him off the track tells me that this one could just be anything.
So why do I feel so strongly about Binocular? Get the tape out or watch last years Champion on you tube and look at McCoy's reaction after he asks Binocular for a big one two out. Ask yourself how many times do you see a jockey strangling a horse at that point in a Champion so as not to play his hand too soon? This year I expect McCoy to let the horse stride on at this point and I expect the horse to be capable of posting a mark around 177. If something else can better than that fair enough.
Somewhat like Imperial Commander (who I also fancy atrongly) I don't think Binocular gets the credit he deserves because when he isn't on his game he can look very average. In my view he needs certain conditions to show his best. He needs a strong gallop and on decent ground and he often doesn't get that outside of the festival.
Granted there are some talking horses with big reputations but there were a few of those last year as well and like last year I expect those to go away with excuses ringing in their ears:
Menorah, Oscar Whiskey, Dunguib. Based on last years Supreme is there really any reason why one of these should be much better than the others? I don't really think so. Perhaps it really was that good a race. I'm inclined to think not.
Peddlers Cross. Clearly a decent sort over further but I remain to be convinced that he has the raw speed to beat a champion of the calibre of Binocular in a Champion Hurdle.
Hurricane Fly. This for me is the potential fly in the ointment. That Go Native could go on and win a Supreme after this one kicked him off the track tells me that this one could just be anything.
So why do I feel so strongly about Binocular? Get the tape out or watch last years Champion on you tube and look at McCoy's reaction after he asks Binocular for a big one two out. Ask yourself how many times do you see a jockey strangling a horse at that point in a Champion so as not to play his hand too soon? This year I expect McCoy to let the horse stride on at this point and I expect the horse to be capable of posting a mark around 177. If something else can better than that fair enough.
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Just made me laugh your post.
Spent this evening working on Tuesday's card and the last race I looked at (finished 20mins ago or so) was the Champion Hurdle. I've not read this 'Cheltenham' forum once all year but I thought well I'll have a gander at it, first post I read is yours.
Having just 'done' the race over the last few hours I've drawn 100% the exact same opinion on the race as you, with exactly the same reasons for siding with Binocular and similarly with HF being the only serious danger to it assuming Binocular runs to the level he did last year.
I see no reason why he shouldn't given the ground is increasingly likely to be almost identical, he's still young enough and seems to have been trained as he was last year with just the one race in mind....it looks all set for an encore performance.
Much the same as you I don't see the argument for any of last years Supreme candidates, sure Menorah has almost certainly strengthened up and improved a few lbs but his Supreme form isn't good enough, beating Bothy marginally albeit giving lumps isn't good enough and although the win against Cue Card was smart enough, the time of the race and the fact that CC is taking the novice route with the dissapointing Nicholls beast not far behind hardly matches what Binocular has achieved to date. Menorah fans will argue otherwise but those are the facts and the clock as always in championship races, doesn't lie, he has lengths to make up.
I'm a bit gutted in many respects to have drawn the 'Binocular conclusion' as I'm no fan of the horse having had him cost me mortgage money last year through his Lazarus like return (Khyber Kim and Imperial Commander in a serious Ante Post Win double) but despite a dislike for him I can't see any faults in his chance and he looks the winner to me with the as yet unknown full potential of HF as the chief threat...rest not good enough imo but the game's all about opinions and I'm sure plenty will disagree with us.
Best of luck to all.
Spent this evening working on Tuesday's card and the last race I looked at (finished 20mins ago or so) was the Champion Hurdle. I've not read this 'Cheltenham' forum once all year but I thought well I'll have a gander at it, first post I read is yours.
Having just 'done' the race over the last few hours I've drawn 100% the exact same opinion on the race as you, with exactly the same reasons for siding with Binocular and similarly with HF being the only serious danger to it assuming Binocular runs to the level he did last year.
I see no reason why he shouldn't given the ground is increasingly likely to be almost identical, he's still young enough and seems to have been trained as he was last year with just the one race in mind....it looks all set for an encore performance.
Much the same as you I don't see the argument for any of last years Supreme candidates, sure Menorah has almost certainly strengthened up and improved a few lbs but his Supreme form isn't good enough, beating Bothy marginally albeit giving lumps isn't good enough and although the win against Cue Card was smart enough, the time of the race and the fact that CC is taking the novice route with the dissapointing Nicholls beast not far behind hardly matches what Binocular has achieved to date. Menorah fans will argue otherwise but those are the facts and the clock as always in championship races, doesn't lie, he has lengths to make up.
I'm a bit gutted in many respects to have drawn the 'Binocular conclusion' as I'm no fan of the horse having had him cost me mortgage money last year through his Lazarus like return (Khyber Kim and Imperial Commander in a serious Ante Post Win double) but despite a dislike for him I can't see any faults in his chance and he looks the winner to me with the as yet unknown full potential of HF as the chief threat...rest not good enough imo but the game's all about opinions and I'm sure plenty will disagree with us.
Best of luck to all.
Peddlers will see them all off...still underated and a value bet..
silky
On what basis? I remember not long ago this forum was a place of serious and informed discussion. Maybe we can buck the current trend?
On what basis? I remember not long ago this forum was a place of serious and informed discussion. Maybe we can buck the current trend?
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