Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
seaserpent Joined: 07 Mar 04
Replies: 94 03 Mar 11 00:41
I have just attended the Oswestry preview night for which a summary is detailed below :-
PANEL :-
Mark Winstanley ( MW )
Richard Johnson ( RJ )
Paul Ferguson ( PF )
Noel Fehily ( NF )
Chairman of the Panel Mark Ball ( MB )
SUPREME NOVICES - RJ said Cue Card best horse in the race, NF agreed and couldnt see it getting beat, PF has backed Zaidpour but also thinks Cue Card will win, but can make a case for Megans Star e/w at a big price. MW thinks Henderson has the race by the balls and has been told that Geraghty will ride Spirit Son.
ARKLE - With the forecast dry for the next 2 weeks RJ thinks Captain Chris will go for the Jewson. Ghizao cant win unless soft and picked Medermit as did MW as the best hurdler invariably wins the Arkle and Medermit would be his bet of the day. NF cant have Ghizao and he would select Finians Rainbow to ride, whilst PF has backed Medermit & Finians Rainbow and his preference would be for the former.
CHAMPION HURDLE - RJ predctably selected Menorah and said the normally calm Hobbs was really excited after his racecourse gallop this week. NF said Paul Townend & the Irish are really sweet on the Fly yet he would prefer Binocular. PF said Menorah was a really good each way bet but sided with the Fly whilst MW went for Binoular and would be laying Peddlers Cross all day long.
SUN ALLIANCE HURDLE - or whatever they call it now. PF thinks that the Irish horses are superior here, but Oscars Well was too short and sided with So Young but didnt discount First Lieutenenat. RJ said Megans Star would be value if lining up here instead of Supreme, but Bobs Worth is the one to beat as did MW. NF thinks Ireland will win and went for Oscars Well.
RSA - 3 of the panel went for Time for Rupert who MW predicted would go off 5/4 or 11/8 on the day. RJ has been trying to convince Hobbs to run Wishful Thinking here, however he said TFR is his banker of the meeting. Odd one out was NF who said 1833 would have a major chance with juice in the ground.
CHAMPION CHASE - RJ said Sommersby should be in Ryanair, both him PF & NF went for Big Zeb if the ground is good. MW thinks Woolcombe Folly would win as the old guard are not that good anymore.
After the first 2 days RJ had to leave, but he did suggest Kilcrea Kim would have a good chance whichever race he went for, if he had the choice in the Gold Cup would ride Imperial Commander. Snap Tie worked with Menorah this week and if good ground would have an excellent chance in the County.
RJ NAP - Time for Rupert.
Paul Jones ( PJ ) of the Cheltenham Betting Guide now took RJ's place
RYANAIR - MW stated that Poquelin would take the world of beating, NF agreed that he looked rock solid, wheras PJ & PF both went for Kalahari King with the likely good ground conditions
WORLD HURDLE - Unmnous decsion that Big Bucks would win, however they were split on the betting without the favourite, 2 went for Solwhit and 2 for Mourad. There was a lot of negativity regarding Grand Crus that his speed figures were not very special and his requirement for soft ground.
JEWSON - MW & PJ both thougt that Mr Gardner would reverse form with Captain Chris here and that he is currently trading at good odds as he will go off a lot shorter, NF went for Captain Chris, though did say De Bromhead is quietly confident in Loosen my Load. PF went for Hells Bay.
TRIUMPH - NF thinks disregard Sam Winners last run, PF agreed and said it was the best single piece of form this season on his first run. PJ dosnt fancy any of the market leaders and would back Smad Place. MW went for an outsider in Moose Moran of Hendersons who runs on Friday. He said that it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Geraghty would ride this instead of Gandouet or a Media a Luz.
ALBERT BARTLETT - PJ said Kilcream Kim will run here and is the most likely winner, if he dosnt run Champion Court would be his selection. NF has been impressed by Back in Focus. MW & PF both suggested Bobs Worth if he runs here and if not Mossley, also from hendersons each way.
GOLD CUP - MW cant have Long Run, Kauto Star or Imperial Commander. Denman is a watching brief and has backed Kempes but also on good ground put up China Rock e/w at 66/1. PJ was totally against Kauto Star and to a lesser extent Denman, worried about Imperial Commanders preparation so has seleted Long Run by default. NF believes the younger horses still have a bit to find with the older brigade and went for Denman. PF does not have a strong view on the race, but went for Imperial Commander.
SHOULDER RACES SUMMARY - General Consensus was that whichever races Aigle d'or or Quantiveasing go for they would be a hughe gamble and McManus plot horses. Tanks for that was a good fancy for the Grand Annual. Owners are very keen on Galant Nuit in the Kim Muir as has been laid out for the race. David Pipe says Junior is his best handicap bet of the meeting in the Kim Muir, but make of that what you will.Chartreaux was fancied in the Pertemps. Tullymore Dew was fancied whereever he turns up.Aegean Dawn & Psycho for the Morals Cup. The Irish horse for the bumper is Allure of Illusion. Great Endeavour was fancied of his current mark for the handicap chase on the first day.
NAPS
MW - Tanks for That
NF - Sam Winner
PJ - Medermit
PF - Time for Rupert
Sorry if it is a lot to take in, I have summarised as best I could !!
__________________________________________________________________________________
Paul carberry,
thinks realt Dubh great bet ew @ 9/1
thinks peak reader has great ew chance in johnny henderson @ 14/1,horse has deliberately not run over fences to protect mark
thinks pandorama needs at least good to soft!got impression if ground got soft there would be serious confidence behind pandorama
his nap of meeting is cue card
Robbie "puppy" Power
Oscar wells his banker,reckons he'll improve loads with good ground.
gave cork all star a good metion in the foxhunters
he heard geraghty likes sprinter sacre
reckons irish 4 year olds not up to much
wasnt gone on long run,reckons he runs bad everytime at cheltenham
thinks boston angels a real tough horse,will ratlle time for rupert,has ew chance @ 16/1 in his opinion
Gordon Elliot
Dirar has ew chance in county
reckons he'll have a good few entered in martin pipe conditional.
chicago grey has a great chance,derek o connor rides
jessies dream will put it up to time for rupert
plan a would have a chance with carberry off 125 in fred winter
his nap was junior ew @ 20/1 kim muir
Kevin Oryan
likes allure of illusion in bumper,it & Lord Gayle are suposed to be willies best 2 horses for numper
his charity bet was 100 ew on china rock 66/1(carberry said china took a good blow after irish hennessey,so wasnt fully revved up for it)
gary oBroen nap was medermit
paul ryan PP nap is cork all star
will from ATR liked noble prince
All the panel worried about grand crus not settling,they reckon he'll use too much petrol trying to settle
everyone seemed to have a different tip for champion hurdle,puppy liked peddlers cross alot
panel seem to think zaidpour is going in wrong direction,won a poor royal bond
no-one seemed to fancy diamond harry for gold cup
panel felt time for rupert will be alot shorter on day
puppy got impression henderson camp wasnt overly impressed with finians rainbow,they were well disappointed
riverside theatre seemed very popular with panel @ 7/1
panel feel bobs worth might run in albert bartlett..
____________________________________________________________________________
Exeter Preview night, not bad at all:
Panel:
MC – Zoey Bird (ZB)
David Pipe (DP)
Nick Williams (NW)
Paul Nicholls (PN)
Philip Hobbs (PH)
Andrew King (AK)
Paddy Power, represented by Paul Binfield (PB)
TUESDAY
ZB: Let’s start with the first race of the 2011 Festival, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle…Cue Card sets a very high standard…
NW: His best form was shown before Christmas so that would be a worry for me. Nicky Henderson’s horses are flying and both of his (Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre) can shake up the favourite.
AK: Both of Henderson’s horses are high class. Sprinter Sacre potentially better of the pair but whether they can deal with Cue Card is another matter.
PB: Barry Geraghty has a tough choice between the two Henderson horses but it’ll take a good one to Beat Cue Card
PN: For me Spirit Son is the best of the two Henderson horses. He killed Cedre Bleu here (at Exeter) and I think quite a lot of Cedre Bleu. Al Ferof is a big price though, he jumps really well but he does have to improve.
PH: Cue Card is very good but I agree with Nick that not running for a while may be an issue. Dunraven Storm has a squeak if I can get him there but he banged a joint this week.
ZB: On to the Arkle, Paul, what about Ghizao?
PN: He’s in good order and worked really well on Sunday. His form is good and he goes well fresh. He’s had a little break which was always the plan as we’re looking at good to Cheltenham then Aintree and then Punchestown. I can’t have Finian’s Rainbow so Medermit is the one to beat.
PH: We’ll decide after this weekend about whether Captain Chris goes here or the Jewson. I think 2m4f is his trip but Richard Johnson thinks 2m is! Jewson looks easier.
PB: Starluck is interesting if connections decide to come here, not Aintree.
AK: I thought Captain Chris was unlucky to be beaten by Medermit at Sandown last time but Ghizao is still the one to beat.
NW: Finian’s Rainbow has been running in uncompetitive heats and so Medermit shades it for me.
DP: I quite like Finian’s Rainbow but Ghizao is rock solid. I’d prefer Captain Chris in the 2m4f race (Jewson).
ZB: Champion Hurdle, the main race of the entire meeting?
PH: Menorah is great. Everything has gone to plan, I’m very happy with him and it’s all systems go.
AK: Binocular was very impressive last year and it’s tough to oppose him this year. Menorah and Peddlers Cross the obvious dangers.
PB: Hurricane Fly is a big loser for us but Dunguib is a big price for me.
NW: Front of the betting is solid but of that group I’d just give Menorah the edge.
PN: It’s a good renewal. Menorah and Peddlers Cross are the two I’d like and if Jason Maguire’s ban is upheld I wouldn’t be surprised if Ruby (Walsh) took the ride on Peddlers Cross.
Other Tuesday action…
ZB: David, Great Endeavour for the Andy Stewart sponsored race?
DP: He’s crying out for the step up in trip over fences so we’ll either run here or the Gold Cup.
ZB: Reve De Sivola for the same race Nick?
NW: Off a mark of 140 he should be competitive, the step up in trip will really help.
ZB: Anything else on day one for you Paul?
PN: Definity will run in the Centenary Novices’ Chase. His current mark is very nice.
WEDNESDAY
ZB: Let’s start with the Neptune…
PB: Oscar Wells has been impressive so far but favourites don’t have a great record in this race (two wins in last 10 years).
AK: Minella class didn’t look great when beaten at Huntingdon so now it’s very open.
ZB: So Young?
PB: It’s tricky because we don’t know what might run in the Albert Bartlett. That said, Bobs Worth will be tough to beat in either race!
PN: Rock On Ruby ran well at Cheltenham last time and on better ground I think we can bridge the 2 length gap with Bobs Worth. The form of that race is solid and we have a great chance.
ZB: Time For Rupert sets a solid standard in the RSA?
NW: He’s a strong contender but, like Cue Card, he hasn’t run for a while which could be a problem. Aiteen Thirtythree’s price is wrong compared to the likes of Wymott and Wayward Prince, he should be shorter.
PN: Aiteen Thirtythree is rated 159 which is only 2lbs behind Time For Rupert so the handicapper has them close. I’ve always thought he was a good horse, ever since his Point-to-Point days and he’s done nothing wrong so far. Time For Rupert is the one to beat.
AK: I’d love to see Wishfull Thinking here as for me he as a massive e/w chance. Jessies Dream has a very good chance.
PB: Jessies Dream has a massive chance, along with Master Of The Hall who did it nicely in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last weekend.
ZB: On to the Champion Chase, how is Master Minded Paul?
PN: I don’t think we’ll ever repeat his performance from 3 years ago. He’s had a nice break since Ascot and looked really well at evening stables tonight. I think everyone has us to beat. Woolcombe Folly, on good ground, will go very well. His progress this year has amazed me.
PB: Somersby should run in the Ryanair but Master Minded will be tough to beat. Big Zeb is Paddy Power’s NAP of the meeting.
AK: Master Minded has an excellent chance but Captain Cee Bee is interesting at a price, I know AP McCoy likes him. It’s completely ridiculous that Somersby is running here and not the Ryanair.
ZB: Champion Bumper anyone…?!
PH: Persian Snow’s Ascot defeat was due to the ground but he wouldn’t have a strong chance anyway.
AK: I’d like to see Knight Pass win but Allure Of Illusion is apparently ‘the one’ for Ireland.
PB: Star Neuville is interesting, Shark Hanlon think he’s the best of the Irish. Samain did it nicely last time but who knows what Willie Mullins’ best bumper horse is! I have no idea about Raise The Beat despite there being plenty of money for him recently.
Other Wednesday action…
NW: For Non Stop will definitely run in the Coral Cup. I’m keen on his chances off 135.
PN: Pistolet Noir has a genuine e/w chance in the Coral Cup at a nice price.
DP: Chartreux has been put away deliberately for the Festival, he’s a very nice horse. He’ll make a lovely chaser next year.
THURSDAY
PH: The Jewson is easier than the Arkle and RSA so makes sense so run Wishfull Thinking here.
AK: Captain Chris a cracking bet if running here, the race is tailor-made for him.
NW: ***** Bay is extremely consistent but Wishfull Thinking is the one.
PN: I’m having a tough job getting Royal Charm right. Robinson Collonges is the interesting one. He’s been deliberately kept fresh and he’d have a good chance on good ground.
ZB: Ryanair, Poquelin Paul?
PN: He’s improved since last year and worked really well on Sunday so he’s got a leading chance. Tranquil Sea needs it soft, Riverside Theatre is a ‘maybe’ and Kalahari King has become disappointing so it looks a weak Grade 1.
AK: Poquelin has a massive chance on good ground.
ZB: On to the World Hurdle…a duel between Big Buck’s and Grands Crus?
PN: Big Buck’s is in good form and I’m very happy with him.
DP: There’s maybe more to come from Grands Crus, he’s only had 6 races. Big Buck’s is one of the best and it will be great if we can get both of them there in one piece.
PN: If he doesn’t win it’ll be because he’s beat himself by not being relaxed. The better the race the better he’ll win.
PB: Fiveforthree has had plenty of problems but has always been held in high regard. This looks a proper contest though as Solwhit would be another interesting runner.
ZB: So let’s have a quick head count of the panel, Bucks or Crus? I’m with Big Buck’s.
PB: Big Buck’s
AK: Big Buck’s
NW: Grands Crus
PH: Big Buck’s
FRIDAY
ZB: What wins the Triumph?
PB: Maybe hold your bets on Unaccompanied who I’ve heard a rumour about may go to the Supreme. Be careful.
AK: Grandouet would be choice of the Henderson runners (A Media Luz the other) but not sure of their plans yet. I like Brampour though, the race should suit Paul?
PN: He’s improved since Kempton and better ground will suit. In an open race he has a chance. I shouldn’t have run Sam Winner at Chepstow on soft ground and as it stands he’s the best of mine.
NW: I think that form shown in the 6 weeks prior to the race is very important and so Unaccompanied gets my vote.
PN: The Adonis at Kempton is normally very informative so keep an eye on Saturday’ race.
ZB: Albert Bartlett…
NW: I like Back In Focus, he was impressive at the weekend.
PN: Join Together runs. He has good course form and is improving. Again, it looks an open race so he’d have a chance.
PB: Tricky. First Lieutenant may go for the Neptune but if he line sup here would be interesting.
AK: I liked Court In Motion until he got beat at the weekend! I can’t work him out!
ZB: On to the Gold Cup…
PN: Denman is in good form and working well, he looks great. I didn’t think he was finishing his races so we’ve operated on him. I’m hopeful of a big run, on Hennessy weights he can win.
ZB: Diamond Harry Nick?
NW: 3 weeks after the Hennessy he was still flying and I wish I’d never said he’ll come here fresh. Keeping him at that level for the last 3/4 months has been impossible as he’s galloped far more than I would have wanted and a run would have suited him much better. As a result, I was much happier with him a month after the Hennessy than I am now – I’ve mismanaged him. We got the run of the race in the Hennessy as not only did we get 2st off Denman he basically gave us 10 lengths too by going wide. For him to finish in 3rd was amazing considering everything that happen and the fact we were at our best that day. It was a great effort from him.
PN: Kauto Star’s blood was not right after the King George but he seems fine now. He always works well at home so appears as good as ever. Overall it looks an open race. Long Run’s Cheltenham form is disappointing
AK: Imperial Commander has a big question mark over him as apparently his recent work at Warwick was poor. Not sure Denman and Kauto can win at their age and Long Run is probably better on a flat track so maybe Midnight Chase. He has cracking course form and has a great chance to get in the frame.
PB: Of the Irish, I’d have Pandorama over Kempes but this race looks a cracker with so many potential winners.
CHARITY BETS
PN: Aiteen Thirtythree (RSA)
DP: Midnight Chase e/w (Gold cup)
PH: Menorah (Champion Hurdle)
NW: For Non Stop (Coral Cup)
AK: Captain Cee Bee (Champion Chase)
ZB: Kilcrea Kim (Albert Bartlett)
______________________________________________________________________________
Naas Cheltenham preview-
Davy Russell and Paul Townend very keen on Day Of A Lifetime, both not keen on Zaidpour..
All the panel very keen on Realt Dubh and think he has the best chance of the irish runners..
Davy Russell likes Starluck if he runs..
Paul Townend would love to ride Hurricane Fly, but Willie hasn't told him if he rides yet..
Davy Russell quote regarding Hurricane Fly 'I hav a pain in me hole looking at his ****'..
Dessie Hughes keen on Hurricane Fly, also thinks Dunguib no chance cos of his jumping..
First Lieutenant undecided between Supreme and Neptune, worked very well this morning..
Paul Townend loves So Young, thinks he's a very very good horse, couldn't believe how he picked up at Punchestown..
Jessies Dream hasn't won over fences going left handed says trainer..
Paul Townend thinks Mikael had plenty left last time out when getting hampered..
Davy Russell makes the point that u need a horse capable of winning on winter soft who improves massively for good ground..
Davy Russell likes 1833..
Paul Townend not sounding confident regarding Golden Silver in Queen Mother..
Davy Russell thinks if its good ground Big Zeb wins, if its soft Master Minded wins..
Bumper- Samain and Lovethehigher dont run, Davy Russell likes Cheltenian, Paul Townend thinks there's no standout and Allure Of Illusion would be his pick..
Quevega is as good as last year says Paul Townend..
World Hurdle- Davy Russell likes Mourad, says he was weak last season, impressive this, got a huge chance..
Paul Townend prefers Mourad to 543..
Triumph- Irish not great says Paul Townend, Unaccomp best of a bad lot tho worried about faster ground..
Davy Russell likes Unaccomp and aint keen on Sam Winner and Grandouet..
Matt Chapman says Nicky Henderson prefers Spirit Son to Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme
Charity bets:
Matt Chapman- Baby Run
Paul Townend- So Young
Dessie Hughes- Magnanimity
Gordon Elliott- Plan A e/w in Fred Winter
Davy Russell- Gagewell Flyer in Albert Bartlett
________________________________________________________________________
Westmondstown one:
BG – Barry Geraghty
DR – Davy Russell
CM – Colm Murphy
EW – Evan Williams
DMC – Don McClean
Supreme Novice Hurdle :
BG - dunno what he will ride - prob Sprinter by way he talking Cue Card he likes esp on quick ground
DR - Day of lifetime But CC he thinks wins this
CM - CC looks the one Resession proof could be one though
EW - Resession proof will go well Hendersons will go well
DMC - Whatever Barry rides Thinks Spirit Son
ARKLE :
DR - Starluck or Medermit
BG – Finians Rainbow schooled well very good & take beating
EW - Starluck but worried bout only 1 race but his own West with the wind will run well
CM - Finians rainbow
DMC - Medermit
PP - fin rainbow
WILLY MULLINS CALL :
Quevega - very pleased done very good piece yesterday
Kempes - thinks he will improve
Quel Esprit - Rsa chase
Blazing Tempo - small setback but defo bringing her over (gonna back her whatever she runs in)
Backstairs Mountain in coral
Bumper - 3 or 4 runners Ceol rua for Aintree Allure of Illusion like ground
CHAMPION HURDLE :
DR – HURRICANE FLY WILL WIN CH - Only thing to beat him if he gets upset before race
BG - Bino very good, Menorah rock solid & Peddlers Thinks Oscar Whisky will be there jumps better but Bino one to beat
EW - Menorah not for him Khyber Kim overpriced @ 25/1
CM - Bino for him - Peddlers could be ok
DMC - not convinced for HF PP - Peddlers for him
NEPTUNE NOVICES :
BG - Bobs worth prob best he rode If good ground will run in 3 mile but Oscar Wells ticks all boxes
DR - So Young is best horse Mullins has goin to Cheltenham so townend said
EW - Irish horses hold key
CM - Oscar wells
DMC - Oscars Well but afraid of So Young
RSA CHASE :
BG - TFR very solid
DR - Jessies dream not good enough
EW - 1833 classy horse likes him alot but might not run Likes Wymott
CM - Quito de la Roque ground dependent but would love this trip
DMC – Jessies Dream is one on better ground and pace he likes
CHAMPION CHASE :
BG - mm not near what he was Big Zeb better on Better ground
DR - All ground dependent good ground BZ, softish MM, Sizing Europe has a chance
EW - Big Zeb
CM - Zeb is very well couldn't be happier with him
DMC - betting is wrong way round Big Zeb takes a lot of beating
PAUL NICHOLLS CALL :
MM good form & happy with him Needs bit of cut
Happy with 2 in Gc Denman & Kauto
Al Ferof - needs to improve better chaser next yr
Ghizao - great chance Love ground & track Nothing in handicap that sticks out Not worried bout Grands Cru but he is good
Big Zeb one to beat in champ
BUMPER :
BG - Ericht runs Won well good race & gallop Nothing standing out Twiston Davies one looks good
DR - no ride in race Star Neuville ridden by McCoy Wandering Angus
EW - Keys good flat speed and could be good enough
CM – Raise The Beat goes on nice ground Will get trip and will like pace
DMC - Ericht
WORLD HURDLE :
BG - Big Bucks for short price cannot see him beaten Buying money
DR - Looking forward to Solwith Charles Byrnes’ Horses are turning corner and coming into fom. Ridden to be placed. Don't give out if he flies up hill Has his chance High class and beautiful animal
CM - BB banker
DMC – Grands Cru underpriced now Interesting to see Solwith goin in this Mourad real player in this
TRIUMPH :
BG - sweet on Grandouet Best ride and not dependent on ground
DR - fancies Unaccompanied very impressed with her but likes Zarkander too
EW - likes Zarkander and will improve
DMC - Zarkander and Unaccompanied against the field
RYANAIR :
BG – Riverside Theatre arkle too slow for him would want bit of juice will take beating if good ground
DR - Bet of meeting Tranquil Sea
EW - very impressed with Riverside Theatre Kalahari King not good enough
CM - AJ mc bullish bout Tranquil
DMC - riverside sticking out mile Kalahari King is one he likes Trip is key Loves ground & cheltenham
GOLD CUP :
BG - Denman if all fit and well in pick of field
DR - love to ride Long Run but hisrider is penalty on him. Big Denman fan and would love to see him win
EW - Long Run good enough but Imperial Commander takes all the beating
CM - Tidal Bay at big price rode for place
DMC – Imperial Commander is one for him Kempes didn't get credit for winning Hennessy and came up hill well Ground will be in his favour
Ephorus in Gowran Saturday
Dry ground at weekend RESOLUTE BAY
Gagewell Flyer in Neptune - DR
CHARITY BET :
Each panellist had €150 charity bet for festival all went €150 win except Davy Who said if Gagewell Flyer doesn’t run he put the €150 on Hurricane then �
BG - Big Zeb Champion Chase
DR - gagewell flyer 25ew 100 hurricane fly
EW - Williams Wishes Grand Annual
CM - Tranquil sea Ryanair
DMC - Some Target NH chase
BF - plan a Fred winter
PP - Recession Proof
JM - Just Amazing Foxhunters
_____________________________________________________________________
Wincanton Preview 03/03/11
Just to precis very briefly this evening....
Joe Tizzard : reported that Cue Card had galloped at Wincanton earlier in the day and was brilliant.... advised all present to take out a 2nd mortgage and whack it all on..... The more you put on the more you get back......!!
Paul Nicholls : Al Ferof would run well but was only running for 2nd place... He advised that Ruby thought that Cue Card was impossible to beat.
Tom Scu & Tanya Stevenson : Cue Card could not be opposed and would win despite bookies without A/P liabilities trying to get him beat on the day
Plenty of banter between Tom Scu and Nicholls regarding World Hurdle.... It was quite apparent that Nicholls thought that Big Bucks was the best he had ever had him and he would win.... The Panel apart from Scu concurred.....
Nicholls very bullish about 1833 running a very big race ( not ground dependant )... and bid me us farewell with the words " get on 1833 lads "
____________________________________________________________________
Panel: Kevin O’Ryan, John Carr, Ado Mc****ss, Paul Nolan, Ryan McElligott, Robbie McNamara, Patrick Mullins.
Supreme Novices:
All of the panel thought Cue Card was the one to beat. Paddy Mullins said that Day Of A Lifetime holds a better chance than Zaidpour who won a weak Royal Bond and needs heavy ground. Robbie McNamara said Hidden Universe will improve for the better ground and the step back in trip, he expects to be placed. Nolan said the vibes from Gigginstown are that First Lieutenant will run here rather than the Neptune and that Mouse is sweet on his chances.
Arkle:
All in agreement that it was a poor renewal and it was worth taking on those at the head of the betting. Nolan went with Starluck (Now a NR). John Carr said that Meade has always thought a lot of Realt Dubh and he was a big each way price. Robbie expects Medermit to take all the beating.
Champion Hurdle:
Nobody was that keen on Binocular. Paddy Mullins was very bullish about Hurricane Fly. Said he won a bumper on Menorah when he was with Tom Mullins and that he’d go to lectures in a pair of speedos if he beat Hurricane Fly! Doesn’t know who rides him yet though. McElligott and Robbie went with Peddlers Cross. Carr went for Menorah. Nolan was keen on Hurricane Fly.
Neptune:
Mullins can’t have Oscars Well. Said he couldn’t win a bumper and got beaten in some moderate races earlier on in the season. He said So Young doesn’t do a tap at home but that Ruby always rated him as the best novice in the yard – better than Zaidpour. Gagewell Flyer goes for the three miler. Nolan, Carr and McElligott went for Jessies’ horse. Robbie thinks Bobs Worth will beat the Irish contingent.
RSA:
General consensus was that Time For Rupert was poor value. Mullins said Mikael D’Haguenet and Quel Esprit will run in this. He seemed much more confident about Quel Esprit who he said worked very well at Leopardstown. Robbie was in agreement about Quel Esprit. Nolan and Ado went with Jessies Dream – both said Elliot rates him a stone and a half better than Chicago Grey who chased home the favourite before Christmas. McElligott gave a good word for The Giant Bolster e/w.
Champion Chase:
Ado tipped up Sizing Europe who will improve for the ground and the fast pace. John Carr stuck with Big Zeb. Robbie said the wind op has transformed Master Minded and that he’d win if anywhere near his form of old. Mullins thought Golden Silver beat Big Zeb fair and square the last day and he expects to confirm form with him. Said they initially thought he was a staying mudlark but that he won on quick ground at Punchestown and that the change of tactics has worked wonders for him. Paul Townend thought they’d been riding him all wrong in England and that he’s a different horse when held up. Nolan also went with Golden Silver.
Bumper:
Robbie said the Irish contingent were much better than last year. He rides a horse for Eddie Hales in the race and he gives him an e/w squeak. Said Star Neuville was the one to beat. McElligot and Ado said Colm Murphy was quietly confident about Raise The Beat’s chances. Mullins said that Michael O’Leary didn’t want to fork out the air fare for either of the Gigginstown pair but that they were worth following wherever they run because they are up there with the best bumper horses he’d ever ridden. Said Allure Of Illusion had been burning up the gallops recently. Also gave good word for the Shark’s horse. Said he beat Luska Lad easily in a recent gallop.
Stayers Hurdle:
Paddy was very sweet on Fiveforthree who he thinks is a massive price. Doesn’t think Mourad has beaten anything. Said David Casey will ride whatever Townend doesn’t ride. Carr and Nolan went with Big Bucks. Both Robbie and Ado went with Solwhit who they think is underrated in England. Said Byrnes was quietly confident of a big run.
Triumph:
Most of the panel think it’s between Unaccompanied and Zarkander. Robbie said Unaccompanied was very good at home but she’d like a bit of cut in the ground.
Gold Cup:
Ado went with Kauto Star. Paddy Mullins said he expects a big run from Kempes. McElligot went for Imperial Commander to retain. John Carr and Paul Nolan said the vibes behind Pandorama were very positive and they think he’d go very well. Robbie said he saw Pandorama work at Leopardstown and he couldn’t believe the speed he was going at. Robert Bagnall (owner of Pandorama) also spoke at this point. Said the horse definitely runs and that they were very sweet on him. Said Noel Meade texted him after he worked at Leopardstown on Monday and told him to ‘get on’!
Other races:
Robbie said Andrew McNamara was very bullish about Tranquil Sea. Mullins said that Call The Police would be their best chance in the handicaps, he’ll go for either the Conditionals Hurdle or the Coral Cup. He doesn’t know if Sir Des Champs runs but he’s a serious horse and he should be followed. Paul Nolan said Noble Prince has a good chance and he also runs a horse called Westmeath.
Best Bets:
John Carr – Tranquil Sea (O’Grady very bullish apparently)
Ado Mc****ss – Peddlers Cross
Paul Nolan – Hurricane Fly and Tranquil Sea
Ryan McElligott – Raise The Beat and Solwhit
Patrick Mullins – Hurricane Fly and Fiveforthree
Robbie McNamara – Alfa Beat (rides him in the four miler and expects him to take all the beating)
_______________________________________________________________________
Cut, copied, pasted from everywhere so hope them peoples dont mind [;)]
Replies: 94 03 Mar 11 00:41
I have just attended the Oswestry preview night for which a summary is detailed below :-
PANEL :-
Mark Winstanley ( MW )
Richard Johnson ( RJ )
Paul Ferguson ( PF )
Noel Fehily ( NF )
Chairman of the Panel Mark Ball ( MB )
SUPREME NOVICES - RJ said Cue Card best horse in the race, NF agreed and couldnt see it getting beat, PF has backed Zaidpour but also thinks Cue Card will win, but can make a case for Megans Star e/w at a big price. MW thinks Henderson has the race by the balls and has been told that Geraghty will ride Spirit Son.
ARKLE - With the forecast dry for the next 2 weeks RJ thinks Captain Chris will go for the Jewson. Ghizao cant win unless soft and picked Medermit as did MW as the best hurdler invariably wins the Arkle and Medermit would be his bet of the day. NF cant have Ghizao and he would select Finians Rainbow to ride, whilst PF has backed Medermit & Finians Rainbow and his preference would be for the former.
CHAMPION HURDLE - RJ predctably selected Menorah and said the normally calm Hobbs was really excited after his racecourse gallop this week. NF said Paul Townend & the Irish are really sweet on the Fly yet he would prefer Binocular. PF said Menorah was a really good each way bet but sided with the Fly whilst MW went for Binoular and would be laying Peddlers Cross all day long.
SUN ALLIANCE HURDLE - or whatever they call it now. PF thinks that the Irish horses are superior here, but Oscars Well was too short and sided with So Young but didnt discount First Lieutenenat. RJ said Megans Star would be value if lining up here instead of Supreme, but Bobs Worth is the one to beat as did MW. NF thinks Ireland will win and went for Oscars Well.
RSA - 3 of the panel went for Time for Rupert who MW predicted would go off 5/4 or 11/8 on the day. RJ has been trying to convince Hobbs to run Wishful Thinking here, however he said TFR is his banker of the meeting. Odd one out was NF who said 1833 would have a major chance with juice in the ground.
CHAMPION CHASE - RJ said Sommersby should be in Ryanair, both him PF & NF went for Big Zeb if the ground is good. MW thinks Woolcombe Folly would win as the old guard are not that good anymore.
After the first 2 days RJ had to leave, but he did suggest Kilcrea Kim would have a good chance whichever race he went for, if he had the choice in the Gold Cup would ride Imperial Commander. Snap Tie worked with Menorah this week and if good ground would have an excellent chance in the County.
RJ NAP - Time for Rupert.
Paul Jones ( PJ ) of the Cheltenham Betting Guide now took RJ's place
RYANAIR - MW stated that Poquelin would take the world of beating, NF agreed that he looked rock solid, wheras PJ & PF both went for Kalahari King with the likely good ground conditions
WORLD HURDLE - Unmnous decsion that Big Bucks would win, however they were split on the betting without the favourite, 2 went for Solwhit and 2 for Mourad. There was a lot of negativity regarding Grand Crus that his speed figures were not very special and his requirement for soft ground.
JEWSON - MW & PJ both thougt that Mr Gardner would reverse form with Captain Chris here and that he is currently trading at good odds as he will go off a lot shorter, NF went for Captain Chris, though did say De Bromhead is quietly confident in Loosen my Load. PF went for Hells Bay.
TRIUMPH - NF thinks disregard Sam Winners last run, PF agreed and said it was the best single piece of form this season on his first run. PJ dosnt fancy any of the market leaders and would back Smad Place. MW went for an outsider in Moose Moran of Hendersons who runs on Friday. He said that it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Geraghty would ride this instead of Gandouet or a Media a Luz.
ALBERT BARTLETT - PJ said Kilcream Kim will run here and is the most likely winner, if he dosnt run Champion Court would be his selection. NF has been impressed by Back in Focus. MW & PF both suggested Bobs Worth if he runs here and if not Mossley, also from hendersons each way.
GOLD CUP - MW cant have Long Run, Kauto Star or Imperial Commander. Denman is a watching brief and has backed Kempes but also on good ground put up China Rock e/w at 66/1. PJ was totally against Kauto Star and to a lesser extent Denman, worried about Imperial Commanders preparation so has seleted Long Run by default. NF believes the younger horses still have a bit to find with the older brigade and went for Denman. PF does not have a strong view on the race, but went for Imperial Commander.
SHOULDER RACES SUMMARY - General Consensus was that whichever races Aigle d'or or Quantiveasing go for they would be a hughe gamble and McManus plot horses. Tanks for that was a good fancy for the Grand Annual. Owners are very keen on Galant Nuit in the Kim Muir as has been laid out for the race. David Pipe says Junior is his best handicap bet of the meeting in the Kim Muir, but make of that what you will.Chartreaux was fancied in the Pertemps. Tullymore Dew was fancied whereever he turns up.Aegean Dawn & Psycho for the Morals Cup. The Irish horse for the bumper is Allure of Illusion. Great Endeavour was fancied of his current mark for the handicap chase on the first day.
NAPS
MW - Tanks for That
NF - Sam Winner
PJ - Medermit
PF - Time for Rupert
Sorry if it is a lot to take in, I have summarised as best I could !!
__________________________________________________________________________________
Paul carberry,
thinks realt Dubh great bet ew @ 9/1
thinks peak reader has great ew chance in johnny henderson @ 14/1,horse has deliberately not run over fences to protect mark
thinks pandorama needs at least good to soft!got impression if ground got soft there would be serious confidence behind pandorama
his nap of meeting is cue card
Robbie "puppy" Power
Oscar wells his banker,reckons he'll improve loads with good ground.
gave cork all star a good metion in the foxhunters
he heard geraghty likes sprinter sacre
reckons irish 4 year olds not up to much
wasnt gone on long run,reckons he runs bad everytime at cheltenham
thinks boston angels a real tough horse,will ratlle time for rupert,has ew chance @ 16/1 in his opinion
Gordon Elliot
Dirar has ew chance in county
reckons he'll have a good few entered in martin pipe conditional.
chicago grey has a great chance,derek o connor rides
jessies dream will put it up to time for rupert
plan a would have a chance with carberry off 125 in fred winter
his nap was junior ew @ 20/1 kim muir
Kevin Oryan
likes allure of illusion in bumper,it & Lord Gayle are suposed to be willies best 2 horses for numper
his charity bet was 100 ew on china rock 66/1(carberry said china took a good blow after irish hennessey,so wasnt fully revved up for it)
gary oBroen nap was medermit
paul ryan PP nap is cork all star
will from ATR liked noble prince
All the panel worried about grand crus not settling,they reckon he'll use too much petrol trying to settle
everyone seemed to have a different tip for champion hurdle,puppy liked peddlers cross alot
panel seem to think zaidpour is going in wrong direction,won a poor royal bond
no-one seemed to fancy diamond harry for gold cup
panel felt time for rupert will be alot shorter on day
puppy got impression henderson camp wasnt overly impressed with finians rainbow,they were well disappointed
riverside theatre seemed very popular with panel @ 7/1
panel feel bobs worth might run in albert bartlett..
____________________________________________________________________________
Exeter Preview night, not bad at all:
Panel:
MC – Zoey Bird (ZB)
David Pipe (DP)
Nick Williams (NW)
Paul Nicholls (PN)
Philip Hobbs (PH)
Andrew King (AK)
Paddy Power, represented by Paul Binfield (PB)
TUESDAY
ZB: Let’s start with the first race of the 2011 Festival, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle…Cue Card sets a very high standard…
NW: His best form was shown before Christmas so that would be a worry for me. Nicky Henderson’s horses are flying and both of his (Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre) can shake up the favourite.
AK: Both of Henderson’s horses are high class. Sprinter Sacre potentially better of the pair but whether they can deal with Cue Card is another matter.
PB: Barry Geraghty has a tough choice between the two Henderson horses but it’ll take a good one to Beat Cue Card
PN: For me Spirit Son is the best of the two Henderson horses. He killed Cedre Bleu here (at Exeter) and I think quite a lot of Cedre Bleu. Al Ferof is a big price though, he jumps really well but he does have to improve.
PH: Cue Card is very good but I agree with Nick that not running for a while may be an issue. Dunraven Storm has a squeak if I can get him there but he banged a joint this week.
ZB: On to the Arkle, Paul, what about Ghizao?
PN: He’s in good order and worked really well on Sunday. His form is good and he goes well fresh. He’s had a little break which was always the plan as we’re looking at good to Cheltenham then Aintree and then Punchestown. I can’t have Finian’s Rainbow so Medermit is the one to beat.
PH: We’ll decide after this weekend about whether Captain Chris goes here or the Jewson. I think 2m4f is his trip but Richard Johnson thinks 2m is! Jewson looks easier.
PB: Starluck is interesting if connections decide to come here, not Aintree.
AK: I thought Captain Chris was unlucky to be beaten by Medermit at Sandown last time but Ghizao is still the one to beat.
NW: Finian’s Rainbow has been running in uncompetitive heats and so Medermit shades it for me.
DP: I quite like Finian’s Rainbow but Ghizao is rock solid. I’d prefer Captain Chris in the 2m4f race (Jewson).
ZB: Champion Hurdle, the main race of the entire meeting?
PH: Menorah is great. Everything has gone to plan, I’m very happy with him and it’s all systems go.
AK: Binocular was very impressive last year and it’s tough to oppose him this year. Menorah and Peddlers Cross the obvious dangers.
PB: Hurricane Fly is a big loser for us but Dunguib is a big price for me.
NW: Front of the betting is solid but of that group I’d just give Menorah the edge.
PN: It’s a good renewal. Menorah and Peddlers Cross are the two I’d like and if Jason Maguire’s ban is upheld I wouldn’t be surprised if Ruby (Walsh) took the ride on Peddlers Cross.
Other Tuesday action…
ZB: David, Great Endeavour for the Andy Stewart sponsored race?
DP: He’s crying out for the step up in trip over fences so we’ll either run here or the Gold Cup.
ZB: Reve De Sivola for the same race Nick?
NW: Off a mark of 140 he should be competitive, the step up in trip will really help.
ZB: Anything else on day one for you Paul?
PN: Definity will run in the Centenary Novices’ Chase. His current mark is very nice.
WEDNESDAY
ZB: Let’s start with the Neptune…
PB: Oscar Wells has been impressive so far but favourites don’t have a great record in this race (two wins in last 10 years).
AK: Minella class didn’t look great when beaten at Huntingdon so now it’s very open.
ZB: So Young?
PB: It’s tricky because we don’t know what might run in the Albert Bartlett. That said, Bobs Worth will be tough to beat in either race!
PN: Rock On Ruby ran well at Cheltenham last time and on better ground I think we can bridge the 2 length gap with Bobs Worth. The form of that race is solid and we have a great chance.
ZB: Time For Rupert sets a solid standard in the RSA?
NW: He’s a strong contender but, like Cue Card, he hasn’t run for a while which could be a problem. Aiteen Thirtythree’s price is wrong compared to the likes of Wymott and Wayward Prince, he should be shorter.
PN: Aiteen Thirtythree is rated 159 which is only 2lbs behind Time For Rupert so the handicapper has them close. I’ve always thought he was a good horse, ever since his Point-to-Point days and he’s done nothing wrong so far. Time For Rupert is the one to beat.
AK: I’d love to see Wishfull Thinking here as for me he as a massive e/w chance. Jessies Dream has a very good chance.
PB: Jessies Dream has a massive chance, along with Master Of The Hall who did it nicely in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last weekend.
ZB: On to the Champion Chase, how is Master Minded Paul?
PN: I don’t think we’ll ever repeat his performance from 3 years ago. He’s had a nice break since Ascot and looked really well at evening stables tonight. I think everyone has us to beat. Woolcombe Folly, on good ground, will go very well. His progress this year has amazed me.
PB: Somersby should run in the Ryanair but Master Minded will be tough to beat. Big Zeb is Paddy Power’s NAP of the meeting.
AK: Master Minded has an excellent chance but Captain Cee Bee is interesting at a price, I know AP McCoy likes him. It’s completely ridiculous that Somersby is running here and not the Ryanair.
ZB: Champion Bumper anyone…?!
PH: Persian Snow’s Ascot defeat was due to the ground but he wouldn’t have a strong chance anyway.
AK: I’d like to see Knight Pass win but Allure Of Illusion is apparently ‘the one’ for Ireland.
PB: Star Neuville is interesting, Shark Hanlon think he’s the best of the Irish. Samain did it nicely last time but who knows what Willie Mullins’ best bumper horse is! I have no idea about Raise The Beat despite there being plenty of money for him recently.
Other Wednesday action…
NW: For Non Stop will definitely run in the Coral Cup. I’m keen on his chances off 135.
PN: Pistolet Noir has a genuine e/w chance in the Coral Cup at a nice price.
DP: Chartreux has been put away deliberately for the Festival, he’s a very nice horse. He’ll make a lovely chaser next year.
THURSDAY
PH: The Jewson is easier than the Arkle and RSA so makes sense so run Wishfull Thinking here.
AK: Captain Chris a cracking bet if running here, the race is tailor-made for him.
NW: ***** Bay is extremely consistent but Wishfull Thinking is the one.
PN: I’m having a tough job getting Royal Charm right. Robinson Collonges is the interesting one. He’s been deliberately kept fresh and he’d have a good chance on good ground.
ZB: Ryanair, Poquelin Paul?
PN: He’s improved since last year and worked really well on Sunday so he’s got a leading chance. Tranquil Sea needs it soft, Riverside Theatre is a ‘maybe’ and Kalahari King has become disappointing so it looks a weak Grade 1.
AK: Poquelin has a massive chance on good ground.
ZB: On to the World Hurdle…a duel between Big Buck’s and Grands Crus?
PN: Big Buck’s is in good form and I’m very happy with him.
DP: There’s maybe more to come from Grands Crus, he’s only had 6 races. Big Buck’s is one of the best and it will be great if we can get both of them there in one piece.
PN: If he doesn’t win it’ll be because he’s beat himself by not being relaxed. The better the race the better he’ll win.
PB: Fiveforthree has had plenty of problems but has always been held in high regard. This looks a proper contest though as Solwhit would be another interesting runner.
ZB: So let’s have a quick head count of the panel, Bucks or Crus? I’m with Big Buck’s.
PB: Big Buck’s
AK: Big Buck’s
NW: Grands Crus
PH: Big Buck’s
FRIDAY
ZB: What wins the Triumph?
PB: Maybe hold your bets on Unaccompanied who I’ve heard a rumour about may go to the Supreme. Be careful.
AK: Grandouet would be choice of the Henderson runners (A Media Luz the other) but not sure of their plans yet. I like Brampour though, the race should suit Paul?
PN: He’s improved since Kempton and better ground will suit. In an open race he has a chance. I shouldn’t have run Sam Winner at Chepstow on soft ground and as it stands he’s the best of mine.
NW: I think that form shown in the 6 weeks prior to the race is very important and so Unaccompanied gets my vote.
PN: The Adonis at Kempton is normally very informative so keep an eye on Saturday’ race.
ZB: Albert Bartlett…
NW: I like Back In Focus, he was impressive at the weekend.
PN: Join Together runs. He has good course form and is improving. Again, it looks an open race so he’d have a chance.
PB: Tricky. First Lieutenant may go for the Neptune but if he line sup here would be interesting.
AK: I liked Court In Motion until he got beat at the weekend! I can’t work him out!
ZB: On to the Gold Cup…
PN: Denman is in good form and working well, he looks great. I didn’t think he was finishing his races so we’ve operated on him. I’m hopeful of a big run, on Hennessy weights he can win.
ZB: Diamond Harry Nick?
NW: 3 weeks after the Hennessy he was still flying and I wish I’d never said he’ll come here fresh. Keeping him at that level for the last 3/4 months has been impossible as he’s galloped far more than I would have wanted and a run would have suited him much better. As a result, I was much happier with him a month after the Hennessy than I am now – I’ve mismanaged him. We got the run of the race in the Hennessy as not only did we get 2st off Denman he basically gave us 10 lengths too by going wide. For him to finish in 3rd was amazing considering everything that happen and the fact we were at our best that day. It was a great effort from him.
PN: Kauto Star’s blood was not right after the King George but he seems fine now. He always works well at home so appears as good as ever. Overall it looks an open race. Long Run’s Cheltenham form is disappointing
AK: Imperial Commander has a big question mark over him as apparently his recent work at Warwick was poor. Not sure Denman and Kauto can win at their age and Long Run is probably better on a flat track so maybe Midnight Chase. He has cracking course form and has a great chance to get in the frame.
PB: Of the Irish, I’d have Pandorama over Kempes but this race looks a cracker with so many potential winners.
CHARITY BETS
PN: Aiteen Thirtythree (RSA)
DP: Midnight Chase e/w (Gold cup)
PH: Menorah (Champion Hurdle)
NW: For Non Stop (Coral Cup)
AK: Captain Cee Bee (Champion Chase)
ZB: Kilcrea Kim (Albert Bartlett)
______________________________________________________________________________
Naas Cheltenham preview-
Davy Russell and Paul Townend very keen on Day Of A Lifetime, both not keen on Zaidpour..
All the panel very keen on Realt Dubh and think he has the best chance of the irish runners..
Davy Russell likes Starluck if he runs..
Paul Townend would love to ride Hurricane Fly, but Willie hasn't told him if he rides yet..
Davy Russell quote regarding Hurricane Fly 'I hav a pain in me hole looking at his ****'..
Dessie Hughes keen on Hurricane Fly, also thinks Dunguib no chance cos of his jumping..
First Lieutenant undecided between Supreme and Neptune, worked very well this morning..
Paul Townend loves So Young, thinks he's a very very good horse, couldn't believe how he picked up at Punchestown..
Jessies Dream hasn't won over fences going left handed says trainer..
Paul Townend thinks Mikael had plenty left last time out when getting hampered..
Davy Russell makes the point that u need a horse capable of winning on winter soft who improves massively for good ground..
Davy Russell likes 1833..
Paul Townend not sounding confident regarding Golden Silver in Queen Mother..
Davy Russell thinks if its good ground Big Zeb wins, if its soft Master Minded wins..
Bumper- Samain and Lovethehigher dont run, Davy Russell likes Cheltenian, Paul Townend thinks there's no standout and Allure Of Illusion would be his pick..
Quevega is as good as last year says Paul Townend..
World Hurdle- Davy Russell likes Mourad, says he was weak last season, impressive this, got a huge chance..
Paul Townend prefers Mourad to 543..
Triumph- Irish not great says Paul Townend, Unaccomp best of a bad lot tho worried about faster ground..
Davy Russell likes Unaccomp and aint keen on Sam Winner and Grandouet..
Matt Chapman says Nicky Henderson prefers Spirit Son to Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme
Charity bets:
Matt Chapman- Baby Run
Paul Townend- So Young
Dessie Hughes- Magnanimity
Gordon Elliott- Plan A e/w in Fred Winter
Davy Russell- Gagewell Flyer in Albert Bartlett
________________________________________________________________________
Westmondstown one:
BG – Barry Geraghty
DR – Davy Russell
CM – Colm Murphy
EW – Evan Williams
DMC – Don McClean
Supreme Novice Hurdle :
BG - dunno what he will ride - prob Sprinter by way he talking Cue Card he likes esp on quick ground
DR - Day of lifetime But CC he thinks wins this
CM - CC looks the one Resession proof could be one though
EW - Resession proof will go well Hendersons will go well
DMC - Whatever Barry rides Thinks Spirit Son
ARKLE :
DR - Starluck or Medermit
BG – Finians Rainbow schooled well very good & take beating
EW - Starluck but worried bout only 1 race but his own West with the wind will run well
CM - Finians rainbow
DMC - Medermit
PP - fin rainbow
WILLY MULLINS CALL :
Quevega - very pleased done very good piece yesterday
Kempes - thinks he will improve
Quel Esprit - Rsa chase
Blazing Tempo - small setback but defo bringing her over (gonna back her whatever she runs in)
Backstairs Mountain in coral
Bumper - 3 or 4 runners Ceol rua for Aintree Allure of Illusion like ground
CHAMPION HURDLE :
DR – HURRICANE FLY WILL WIN CH - Only thing to beat him if he gets upset before race
BG - Bino very good, Menorah rock solid & Peddlers Thinks Oscar Whisky will be there jumps better but Bino one to beat
EW - Menorah not for him Khyber Kim overpriced @ 25/1
CM - Bino for him - Peddlers could be ok
DMC - not convinced for HF PP - Peddlers for him
NEPTUNE NOVICES :
BG - Bobs worth prob best he rode If good ground will run in 3 mile but Oscar Wells ticks all boxes
DR - So Young is best horse Mullins has goin to Cheltenham so townend said
EW - Irish horses hold key
CM - Oscar wells
DMC - Oscars Well but afraid of So Young
RSA CHASE :
BG - TFR very solid
DR - Jessies dream not good enough
EW - 1833 classy horse likes him alot but might not run Likes Wymott
CM - Quito de la Roque ground dependent but would love this trip
DMC – Jessies Dream is one on better ground and pace he likes
CHAMPION CHASE :
BG - mm not near what he was Big Zeb better on Better ground
DR - All ground dependent good ground BZ, softish MM, Sizing Europe has a chance
EW - Big Zeb
CM - Zeb is very well couldn't be happier with him
DMC - betting is wrong way round Big Zeb takes a lot of beating
PAUL NICHOLLS CALL :
MM good form & happy with him Needs bit of cut
Happy with 2 in Gc Denman & Kauto
Al Ferof - needs to improve better chaser next yr
Ghizao - great chance Love ground & track Nothing in handicap that sticks out Not worried bout Grands Cru but he is good
Big Zeb one to beat in champ
BUMPER :
BG - Ericht runs Won well good race & gallop Nothing standing out Twiston Davies one looks good
DR - no ride in race Star Neuville ridden by McCoy Wandering Angus
EW - Keys good flat speed and could be good enough
CM – Raise The Beat goes on nice ground Will get trip and will like pace
DMC - Ericht
WORLD HURDLE :
BG - Big Bucks for short price cannot see him beaten Buying money
DR - Looking forward to Solwith Charles Byrnes’ Horses are turning corner and coming into fom. Ridden to be placed. Don't give out if he flies up hill Has his chance High class and beautiful animal
CM - BB banker
DMC – Grands Cru underpriced now Interesting to see Solwith goin in this Mourad real player in this
TRIUMPH :
BG - sweet on Grandouet Best ride and not dependent on ground
DR - fancies Unaccompanied very impressed with her but likes Zarkander too
EW - likes Zarkander and will improve
DMC - Zarkander and Unaccompanied against the field
RYANAIR :
BG – Riverside Theatre arkle too slow for him would want bit of juice will take beating if good ground
DR - Bet of meeting Tranquil Sea
EW - very impressed with Riverside Theatre Kalahari King not good enough
CM - AJ mc bullish bout Tranquil
DMC - riverside sticking out mile Kalahari King is one he likes Trip is key Loves ground & cheltenham
GOLD CUP :
BG - Denman if all fit and well in pick of field
DR - love to ride Long Run but hisrider is penalty on him. Big Denman fan and would love to see him win
EW - Long Run good enough but Imperial Commander takes all the beating
CM - Tidal Bay at big price rode for place
DMC – Imperial Commander is one for him Kempes didn't get credit for winning Hennessy and came up hill well Ground will be in his favour
Ephorus in Gowran Saturday
Dry ground at weekend RESOLUTE BAY
Gagewell Flyer in Neptune - DR
CHARITY BET :
Each panellist had €150 charity bet for festival all went €150 win except Davy Who said if Gagewell Flyer doesn’t run he put the €150 on Hurricane then �
BG - Big Zeb Champion Chase
DR - gagewell flyer 25ew 100 hurricane fly
EW - Williams Wishes Grand Annual
CM - Tranquil sea Ryanair
DMC - Some Target NH chase
BF - plan a Fred winter
PP - Recession Proof
JM - Just Amazing Foxhunters
_____________________________________________________________________
Wincanton Preview 03/03/11
Just to precis very briefly this evening....
Joe Tizzard : reported that Cue Card had galloped at Wincanton earlier in the day and was brilliant.... advised all present to take out a 2nd mortgage and whack it all on..... The more you put on the more you get back......!!
Paul Nicholls : Al Ferof would run well but was only running for 2nd place... He advised that Ruby thought that Cue Card was impossible to beat.
Tom Scu & Tanya Stevenson : Cue Card could not be opposed and would win despite bookies without A/P liabilities trying to get him beat on the day
Plenty of banter between Tom Scu and Nicholls regarding World Hurdle.... It was quite apparent that Nicholls thought that Big Bucks was the best he had ever had him and he would win.... The Panel apart from Scu concurred.....
Nicholls very bullish about 1833 running a very big race ( not ground dependant )... and bid me us farewell with the words " get on 1833 lads "
____________________________________________________________________
Panel: Kevin O’Ryan, John Carr, Ado Mc****ss, Paul Nolan, Ryan McElligott, Robbie McNamara, Patrick Mullins.
Supreme Novices:
All of the panel thought Cue Card was the one to beat. Paddy Mullins said that Day Of A Lifetime holds a better chance than Zaidpour who won a weak Royal Bond and needs heavy ground. Robbie McNamara said Hidden Universe will improve for the better ground and the step back in trip, he expects to be placed. Nolan said the vibes from Gigginstown are that First Lieutenant will run here rather than the Neptune and that Mouse is sweet on his chances.
Arkle:
All in agreement that it was a poor renewal and it was worth taking on those at the head of the betting. Nolan went with Starluck (Now a NR). John Carr said that Meade has always thought a lot of Realt Dubh and he was a big each way price. Robbie expects Medermit to take all the beating.
Champion Hurdle:
Nobody was that keen on Binocular. Paddy Mullins was very bullish about Hurricane Fly. Said he won a bumper on Menorah when he was with Tom Mullins and that he’d go to lectures in a pair of speedos if he beat Hurricane Fly! Doesn’t know who rides him yet though. McElligott and Robbie went with Peddlers Cross. Carr went for Menorah. Nolan was keen on Hurricane Fly.
Neptune:
Mullins can’t have Oscars Well. Said he couldn’t win a bumper and got beaten in some moderate races earlier on in the season. He said So Young doesn’t do a tap at home but that Ruby always rated him as the best novice in the yard – better than Zaidpour. Gagewell Flyer goes for the three miler. Nolan, Carr and McElligott went for Jessies’ horse. Robbie thinks Bobs Worth will beat the Irish contingent.
RSA:
General consensus was that Time For Rupert was poor value. Mullins said Mikael D’Haguenet and Quel Esprit will run in this. He seemed much more confident about Quel Esprit who he said worked very well at Leopardstown. Robbie was in agreement about Quel Esprit. Nolan and Ado went with Jessies Dream – both said Elliot rates him a stone and a half better than Chicago Grey who chased home the favourite before Christmas. McElligott gave a good word for The Giant Bolster e/w.
Champion Chase:
Ado tipped up Sizing Europe who will improve for the ground and the fast pace. John Carr stuck with Big Zeb. Robbie said the wind op has transformed Master Minded and that he’d win if anywhere near his form of old. Mullins thought Golden Silver beat Big Zeb fair and square the last day and he expects to confirm form with him. Said they initially thought he was a staying mudlark but that he won on quick ground at Punchestown and that the change of tactics has worked wonders for him. Paul Townend thought they’d been riding him all wrong in England and that he’s a different horse when held up. Nolan also went with Golden Silver.
Bumper:
Robbie said the Irish contingent were much better than last year. He rides a horse for Eddie Hales in the race and he gives him an e/w squeak. Said Star Neuville was the one to beat. McElligot and Ado said Colm Murphy was quietly confident about Raise The Beat’s chances. Mullins said that Michael O’Leary didn’t want to fork out the air fare for either of the Gigginstown pair but that they were worth following wherever they run because they are up there with the best bumper horses he’d ever ridden. Said Allure Of Illusion had been burning up the gallops recently. Also gave good word for the Shark’s horse. Said he beat Luska Lad easily in a recent gallop.
Stayers Hurdle:
Paddy was very sweet on Fiveforthree who he thinks is a massive price. Doesn’t think Mourad has beaten anything. Said David Casey will ride whatever Townend doesn’t ride. Carr and Nolan went with Big Bucks. Both Robbie and Ado went with Solwhit who they think is underrated in England. Said Byrnes was quietly confident of a big run.
Triumph:
Most of the panel think it’s between Unaccompanied and Zarkander. Robbie said Unaccompanied was very good at home but she’d like a bit of cut in the ground.
Gold Cup:
Ado went with Kauto Star. Paddy Mullins said he expects a big run from Kempes. McElligot went for Imperial Commander to retain. John Carr and Paul Nolan said the vibes behind Pandorama were very positive and they think he’d go very well. Robbie said he saw Pandorama work at Leopardstown and he couldn’t believe the speed he was going at. Robert Bagnall (owner of Pandorama) also spoke at this point. Said the horse definitely runs and that they were very sweet on him. Said Noel Meade texted him after he worked at Leopardstown on Monday and told him to ‘get on’!
Other races:
Robbie said Andrew McNamara was very bullish about Tranquil Sea. Mullins said that Call The Police would be their best chance in the handicaps, he’ll go for either the Conditionals Hurdle or the Coral Cup. He doesn’t know if Sir Des Champs runs but he’s a serious horse and he should be followed. Paul Nolan said Noble Prince has a good chance and he also runs a horse called Westmeath.
Best Bets:
John Carr – Tranquil Sea (O’Grady very bullish apparently)
Ado Mc****ss – Peddlers Cross
Paul Nolan – Hurricane Fly and Tranquil Sea
Ryan McElligott – Raise The Beat and Solwhit
Patrick Mullins – Hurricane Fly and Fiveforthree
Robbie McNamara – Alfa Beat (rides him in the four miler and expects him to take all the beating)
_______________________________________________________________________
Cut, copied, pasted from everywhere so hope them peoples dont mind [;)]
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 128
|
By:
BJG (and original contributors) - an excellent summary of the previews - thanks for all the hard work (scissors and pritt stick included[;)]
|
|
By:
Masterminded Joined: 24 Jun 08
Replies: 1892 06 Mar 11 19:47 PFN-Paul Nicholls AP-Alice Plunkett TS- Tanya TOM- Tom Scu JT- Joe Tizz PP- Paddy Power rep supreme- All liked Cue Card. PFN- Thinks Cue Card is a certainty. Al Ferof running for 2nd. TS- thinks Spirit Son is a hype horse. Tom- liked Sprinter Sacre but concerned about his lack of experience in big races. Thinks Recession Proof could chase could chase Cue Card home. JT- Cue Card worked like pegasus in a racecourse gallop PP- suprised they are giving the 'if cue card wins money back offer'. stats against cue card favs dont do well and winners have usually won lto. Arkle- PFN- Thinks Ghizao one to beat. Worked well with Poquelin. In good form. Had a nice break very happy. Behind on hurdles form but was choking before breathing op. Medermit has best form. Had a few digs at Finians Rainbow. Can't jump well enough. Think's it needs a longer trip!? And thinks Kilmurry would have won the Kingmaker. Ghizao to win. TS- Finians has only met about 9 horses. Medermit 2 and a half mile horse. Leaning towards Ghizao but goes for an outsider in Rock Noir who's 'done nothing right'. JT- Agrees he would have given Finians a run with Kilmurry had he not made mistakes. Beat Ghizao but was very fit at the time. Finians doesn't jump well enough. Likes medermit. travelled well over 2m4 at cheltenham when he beat it on hells bay and didnt get up the hill. thinks a drop back in trip might help. AP-loves Medermit yards really buzzing about him. TOM-Medermit fan. Doesn't think the drop in trip will be a disadvantage after running well in a supreme and being a champion hurdle candidate. Will probably be riding Dan Breen who has a chance at 33-1. whether he's good enough he's not sure. PP-Choc thinks Medermit best chance of the week. Realt Dubh won a few grade 1s maybe a bet at 9-1. only 1 fav in god knows how long has won the race. Champion Hurdle- PFN- Thinks Menorah will probably win. Likes PPeddlers Cross. TS- Menorah fan. Watch the betting for Binocular. Thinks NJH is worried about Peddlars Cross. Goes on to pick a no hoper in thousand stars each way. JT- Fan of peddlars cross. Not impressive at kelso but will come on for prep. AP- N twiston davis. khyber kim looks good and stable are bullish about him. then starts to go on about mille chief stable buzzing about him. personally doesn't think he's quite good enough. TOM- Ends the Mille Chief talk by saying he hasn't got a chance. Seemed keen on Binocular and thinks he's unlucky not to be going for his 3rd. Thinks he was ridden wrong in his first CH. Needs to be handy and ridden positively. Thinks come tuesday we will see the real binocular and he'll win again. PP- Menorah a serious horse. Dunguib a good chance at 10-1. Shark fancied Luska to beat him first time out. Not suprised if any of the leading chances won. Other- PP- Choc thornton said that Daryl Jacob thinks Maljimar is his best chance of the week in the cross country. PFN- Quantitive Easing entered in everything thinks it's one to watch. Then goes on to pretty much say Aigle D'or is a plot horse and he's better than what we have seen. He runs definity in a handicap and american trilogy. Thinks definity could be well in. He ran American Trilogy to get a hc mark at kempton going the wrong way round. (NOTE IMO HE HAS BEEN RUNNING THIS IN RACES IT CAN't WIN TO GET A NICE MARK)Dropped 4 lbs after Kempton. TS- watch JP horses in the market in the handicaps. Neptune- PFN- Rock on ruby not set in stone to run in this or supreme. ground makes a big difference. outstanding chance. TS- likes so young and court in motion if it runs. JT- likes court in motion. has scoped badly touch and go to make festival. Tom- likes oscars well and bobs worth. PP- Bobs worth looks good. lively outsider first lieutenant. beat hidden cyclone who shark hanlon thinks will win a gold cup. RSA- PFN- Likes 1833 since he won his p2p. Had sore shins all the time over hurdles. couldnt train him properly. won well over fences and is the finished article. ruby didn't like him much to start with thought he was babyish. now does like him and makes a decision to ride 1833 or Mikael Dhag. Time for rupert good. short enough. Thinks mikael dhag jumps to the right and isnt half the horse he was 2 years ago and thinks ruby will ride 1833. TS- Thinks Wymott is the best horse that ever lived bla bla bla bla bla Wymott Wymott Wymott. Nothing gone right for it Wymott is god of the horses. Basically if Wymott loses she's probably gna have a bad festival. Can't have Jessies Dream. Wymott is god the scopiest horse ever. Somehow thinks Time For Rupert has a better chance in the Gold Cup. She loves Wymott. Wymott Wymott. JT- All Will Kennedy talks about is bloody rupert. joes a fan. AP- time for rupert. francome rode him. fantastic attitude. very laid back. Scu- plenty of time for rupert. likes bostons angel. thinks hes a likely winner and price too big. PP- likes jessies dream. timmy murphy should have won on him lto. Champion Chase- PFN- horse not fit at ascot in jan. ground very deep. completely different animal to last year. worked with kauto went very nicely. never thinks he will repeat 08 performance but with a bit of cut in the ground he'll be hard to beat. slower on the old track. should be perfect. woolcombe folly done nothing wrong. had a little setback but now back in form. TS- seems to think somersby will be better than woolcombe folly. thinks sizing has been messed about. probs wont have a bet. JT- Master minded fan. if at his best will win. TOM- likes somersby. improving PP- big zeb is paddys nap. at a price sizing europe. arkle winners good record. bumper- TOM-likes cheltenian. a bit quirky but huge engine. JT- no cue card this year. likes persian snow. PFN- cant have persian snow on his form with balding banker. hasnt entered anything. pp- flags up star neuville. shark hanlon says its the best bumper horse in ireland. other- PFN possibly pistolet noir on good ground at 33-1. coral cup? JT- cannington brook in NH chase. going right way. pleased with him. Tom Scu- kalinas. might not get in fred w? pp- money for kalinas. nicky h likes celtus fred w TS- still rabbling about Wymott Jewson- PFN- Robinson collonges. should have won giving weight to wishful thinking. fell. travelled well made a mistake in the race poquelin won. Scu- rides mr thriller. on his day very good. bit of an enigma. runs the odd stinker now and again PP- choc thinks richard johnson fancied wishful thinking in the jewson rather than cap. chris. agrees with pfn on robinson collonges. dickie johnson wants cap. chris in arkle. Ryanair- PFN- Nightingale needs soft. breedsbreeze may run but would need a miracle. poquelin in the form of his life. probably won't ever be any better. thinks its a really strong race with lots of grade 1 horses. TS- Kalahari King. Checkered season. Nothing went right lto but still nearly came 3rd without many questions asked. JT- Albertas Run ground permitting. good ground only. Tom- big riverside theatre fan(now out of race). albertas run on good ground. PP-open. couldnt pick 1 World hurdle- They all discussed big bucks and grand crus. Tom- GC pulls hard but pleasure to ride. bb the champ but all greats get beatan. not a 2 horse race. zaynar solwhit 543. wouldnt swap. PFN- way hes working he will be very hard to beat. won 10 on the trot. anything that beats him is very very good. not a 2 horse race. ruby likes 543. if he gets beat he gos chasing. got a bit lazy at home but now as good as ever. JT- thinks grand crus will set it up for big bucks. big bucks will stalk him. gc a sitting duck pp- brilliant world hurdle. good price on big bucks. flags up 543. paul townend says its a machine. TS-thinks powerstation will place??? big bucks to win by more than 3 lengths. likes big bucks Triumph- PP- A media luz forced into race. Hendo likes Grandoet. Brampour no back runner. PFN- brampour best of his on flat. bit green and anfit first time out. will like better ground and will want further soon. ruby rides sam winner. shouldnt have run him at chelts. zarkander surprised him. got some class. daryl jacob rides. harry skelton rides brampour. were going to run sam winner in the supreme but ruby (apparently(£500 bet on recession proof at paddy power preview night))thinks cue card is impossible to beat. JT- third intention. likes him lovely big strong horse. lost nothing in defeat. crying out for a strong run race. Tom- mightily impressed with brampour. thinks marsh warblers done nothing wrong. TS- Local Hero. Liked his attitude at Chelts. Albert Bartlett- PFN- Open race. Kilcrea Kim of P Hobbs one to beat. Join together has kept on improving and has a good chance TS- Join Together. PP- Interested in neptune equestor of brian ellisons. back in focus needs cut in ground. TOM- likes bobs worth JT- fan of court in motion. but as mentioned earlier not sure if it will run as its on antibiotics. Foxhunters- JT- Gone to lunch very good. Baby run very good. W twiston davis one for the future very good jock. AP- Baby run. W twiston davis very good pilot. better than sam? PFN- runs just amazing. likes chelts and good ground. baby run one to beat but could set it up for others. Matin pipe- TOM- if shoe gazer gets in could go well. PP- arayan? Gold Cup- AP- P Brennan very happy with Imperial C. NTD thinks denman and kauto biggest threats. Backed Midnight Chase. PFN- Neptune runs will go a good gallop. Kauto wants good ground in good form. Never thought kempton suits him. Denman wants soft. had a breathing op. long run very good. good king george. the best of the younger ones. TS- Midnight Chase EW. Tidal Bay phenomenal record at cheltenham 33s EW. JT- Paddy likes IC. worked with oscar magic who won a good bumper. good vibes big fan. Long Run hill???????? TOM- Midnight Chase. Handicapper comes through now and again. More than EW chance. PP- Pandorama. Only lost once over fences and you can write it off. Noel Meade very confident. Maybe EW. |
|
By:
very well done bjg ,thanks for the reports , much appreiciated top man
|
|
By:
excellent thread as always, bump.
|
|
By:
BJG
Will you be getting info from tonights preview night in Ireland? B J Curley is on the panel which will be interesting Good luck and keep the good work up |
|
By:
day of a lifetime
|
|
By:
W11
Galway Preview is on tonight - boards.ie should have a write-up tomorrow. |
|
By:
anyone know if theres a link to the preview night at the red cow dublin tonight?like there was in dublin last week
|
|
By:
TTT
|
|
By:
bump
|
|
By:
has ted walsh done a preview night i remember last year he said that ruby had told him Sanctuaire could not get beat just wondered if ruby had told him anything this year
|
|
By:
Anyone at bangor on Dee last Thursday night to hear what Donald McCain had to say ?
|
|
By:
BANGOR-ON-DEE RACECOURSE CHELTENHAM PREVIEW EVENING
The panel comprised leading trainer Donald McCain Jnr (DM), broadcaster and commentator Stewart Machin (SM) who won a strong running of the most dapper looking shirt contest, local stud owner and influential breeder Richard Aston (RA) and Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author Paul Jones (PJ). The evening was chaired by racecourse commentator Darren Owen (DO). SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE DM: I couldn’t believe they were considering the Champion Hurdle for Cue Card – the form wasn’t good enough. It was a no brainer that he should go for this and he’ll take the world of beating. I was very taken with Recession Proof at Newbury as you could call him the winner half-way down the back. It’s top-class handicap form. SM: I couldn’t back Cue Card at the price. Spirit Son has a high cruising speed and jumps quickly and Henderson can’t wait to get him on better ground. I’d rather take 6/1 Spirit Son than 9/4 Card Card. RA: I helped sell Cue Card as a foal so have watched him very closely and to have achieved what he has achieved so far is extraordinary given his make and shape. He is my Day 1 nap. PJ: On official ratings, there are grounds for arguing that Cue Card is too big at 9/4 but I’ve seen so many shorties beaten in this race. I respect Spirit Son a lot but the value here and now if he runs is Day Of A Lifetime at 25/1 for Mullins who has twice won the race with outsiders and very impressive only hurdles start where he wore earplugs having proven unsteerable in the Champion Bumper. He is the best each-way Play when non-runner no-bet comes into force as still in Neptune. ARKLE TROPHY DM: I was very taken with Medermit at Sandown. I couldn’t have Finian’s Rainbow because of the way he jumps – he’s too straight backed. Ghizao strikes me as very tough. I was standing at the last when he won at Cheltenham and he wasn’t stopping. SM: Medermit is the most likely winner. He stays further, has a high cruising speed, his jumping is getting better with every race and I liked the way he found more when Captain Chris challenged him at Sandown. Finian’s Rainbow was fizzy going to the start at Warwick and had no cover in the race and I don’t think it is a given he would have beaten Kilmurry if that horse did not break down. If he runs here, Captain Chris’ jumping is an issue for me as he is better right-handed and that underlying problem could see them take the easier race on paper instead (Jewson). RA: I know connections of Captain Chris are very sweet on him as an individual and believe there is a lot more improvement to come when he gets better ground. He is getting better from race to race as is his jumping. PJ: Goodish ground would concern me a little for Ghizao, Realt Dubh has been beating the worst lot of Irish 2m novice chasers I’ve seen for a long time and Finian’s Rainbow’s jumping went to pieces at Warwick when he couldn’t get his own way so it has to be Medermit for all the reasons Stewart has already outlined plus he is likely to be the highest rated hurdler in the field by a huge margin if Starluck doesn’t run, and I don’t think he will, and they have won half of the last ten runnings. CHAMPION HURDLE DM: I’m absolutely relieved that Jason’s ban has been revised and he can ride Peddlers Cross. It hasn’t been pleasant the last few days. To be honest, I think I was worse than Jason, who didn’t show much, but he was very subdued the last couple of days when I think it suddenly hit him he might not be riding. It’s a massive relief – we were only trying to do our best. I think Peddlers Cross’ defeat of Binocular at Newbury has been under-rated. Before the race everyone was saying the small field was not going to suit us but we did the donkey work and won it the hard way, then afterwards people said it did suit us! The way he gets himself to the front and travels is mind blowing and we don’t know how good he is. He was 85-90% at Newbury – he didn’t have an edge on him. He had a blow turning in and pickled up three times in the straight. The better the ground, the better he’ll be but he will cope with bad ground. At Kelso it was very deep and the performance of the 2nd, Bygones of Brid, has been under-rated. Everyone in the north knows he’s a very good horse on bad ground. Peddlers came out of Kelso tremendously well. Who do I fear? I think it’s between us, Binocular and Menorah. Hurricane Fly has only won in a bog in Ireland beating the same horse. I can’t have him. That’s the theory and it sounds good at the moment! Regards Overturn, he was beaten the moment he jumped off at Wincanton according to Jason. And previously at Kempton, Timmy Murphy said he was very disappointed with Starluck, which is not what I was hoping to hear. SM: I do like track form here and Hurricane Fly doesn’t have any whereas his three main rivals have all put up their best performance here. I just wonder if this may come a year too soon for Menorah as reigning Supreme winners haven’t won for 40 years but the likes of Brave Inca and Hors La Loi won it later in their career and didn’t he only really beat novices last time? It’s between Binocular and Peddlers Cross for me and the latter is the better price but I would back them both. RA: I just love Peddlers Cross’ attitude to racing and would go for him but I have this down as just a three-horse race as wouldn’t fancy Hurricane Fly. PJ: Lack of track form is a worry for Hurricane Fly plus we only really know he is better than Solwhit who is vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot. Menorah will run well but just come up short for me as I don’t think his form is strong enough as he beat two embryo chasers last time. Before the start of the season I had it between Binocular and Peddlers Cross and what I have seen on the track has only reinforced that view. Peddlers Cross is the better priced so better value but in my gut I just think Binocular will pick him up on the run-in. He has been trained for one race only so runs this season not bother me. I’ve already backed both. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT HURDLE DM: Tornado Bob goes for this. He’s not done anything wrong. Originally, Jason didn’t think he was mature enough, but he’s matured a fair bit. He didn’t like the ground at Ascot last time but we were forced to go to get a run. He’s been running well despite the ground. He doesn’t lack foot and I didn’t think the Neptune was that strong a race. Until I saw Oscar Wells on the TV. Really he’s a chaser for next year. The RSA Chase nest year? Absolutely. SM: There is not much strength in depth to this race. If you push my arm I would go with So Young at the prices. The fact they are talking of switching Bobs Worth for the Albert Bartlett would worry me, it suggested to me they preferred Minella Class before he got beat at Huntingdon. RA: Oscars Well is the standout. I was very impressed with him in the Deloitte last time and can improve for Festival ground. First Lieutenant reminds me of Weapons Amnesty and give him a big chance also. PJ: I can see a clean sweep for the Irish here as don’t rate the British form at all. Bobs Worth was considered an EBF Final horse before he beat Rock On Ruby last time and that form is over-rated for me. I have no problem with Oscars Well except the value straight after the Deloitte has dried up and believe best bet here and now is So Young at 13/2 as if there is a horse that has the potential to blow the field away it could be him. Unbeaten in his last five races and trained by Willie Mullins who dropped him back to 2m last time in same race he did for Mikael D’Haguenet before he won this, if there is a special horse in the race, I think it would be So Young. RSA CHASE DM: Wymott has always found the job too easy and has an awful lot of ability. I was quite impressed by the way he picked up last time. Time For Rupert beat one of mine at Catterick a few years ago and I was really devastated as I fancied it a lot. Paul Webber’s doing a great job with him. Can we beat him? It’s a three mile novice chase around Cheltenham! And it’s the first time these novices have taken each other on. SM: This is a very good renewal in terms of strength in depth. If I wanted to back a 2/1 shot like Time For Rupert in a race like the RSA I would have wanted him to have the perfect preparation which he hasn’t so would rather watch at those odds. Mikael D’Haguenet makes too many mistakes so I like the look of Wymott and Wayward Prince as both are unflashy, strong staying, far from exciting types but that is the kind of horse that wins the RSA. RA: I bought Time For Rupert as a foal and sold him to Paul Webber as a three-year-old and he was a revelation last season and I see no chinks in him. He has got everything, he jumps, has class, stays, has guts and a superb physique. PJ: Time For Rupert is very short for a horse trying to defy 47 years of history in that he hasn’t run in the same calendar and clearly everything has not gone 100% smoothly. Like Aiteenthirtythree, he has only had two chase starts whereas the last 11 winners had at least three. Aiteenthirtythree looks too gorky for me at present and not a ‘now’ horse and more of a Newbury type in slow ground and I can see him getting into all kinds of trouble on Good ground. I like Jessies Dream most as he is crying out for Good ground being by Presenting and the step up to three miles and he did beat two subsequent dual Grade 1 winners when winning the Drinmore. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE DM: No strong view to be honest. SM: Does Master Minded need it soft now? That would worry me and Big Zeb has been unimpressive in Ireland this season. In the cold light of day just how good was last year’s Champion Chase anyway? Probably not good enough to win it this year. I don’t fancy Somersby as at the 2m point at Ascot he was well behind Master Minded in that 2m1f race. Captain Cee Bee could be the e/w value. At his best fresh, he likes Good ground and beat Binocular in the Supreme so no worries about the course.The value has all gone about Woolcombe Folly. RA: Question marks over everything. If Master Minded is on his game I think he will win. Big Zeb doesn’t excite me. PJ: Ground is a big worry for Master Minded and Big Zeb is a better horse anyway so should be favourite. Somersby will run on too late but I can see Woolcombe Folly or Captain Cee Bee have every chance but are they quite good enough? The value is 14/1 e/w Golden Silver who is in rude health and not far behind Big Zeb when both at their best. He has been pigeon-holed as a soft ground horse but I am not so sure and he can hit the frame under new exaggerated waiting tactics this season. RYANAIR CHASE DM: I have to support Riverside Theatre because I’ve bought his sister! He’s very solid though. SM: I place quite a lot of emphasis on track form, especially New Course form, and Poquelin does love the New Course whereas Tranquil Sea has looked far better on the Old Course and would he have it soft enough? Lack of track form puts me off Riverside Theatre to an extent so Poquelin will be a tough nut to crack. RA: A big vested interest here as I bred Riverside Theatre and I think he will win. I don’t agree he doesn’t handle the course, I just thought the jockey gave up on him far too early in the Arkle last year and then he absolutely flew home. He has gears, is a good jumper and all ground comes alike to him and he is still improving. PJ: Poquelin was also the solid one last year but he got beat then so do think he is vulnerable and believe Riverside Theatre probably has slightly more talent. I have been with Kalahari King e/w straight after he was third in the Victor Chandler Chase when very bad impeded but he is crying out for this trip on spring ground and has finished 423 at the last three Festivals and has also won at Aintree and Punchestown Festivals so he is only trained for the spring. WORLD HURDLE DM: Any Given Day hated the ground at Haydock – it was as testing as it’s been in a long time – and was shattered afterwards. I’m hoping it was just the ground and am just waiting to see how he comes back over the next 10 days before committing. He’s very tough and genuine. It’s a terrible thing to say, but I just don’t like Big Buck’s, or should I say I just haven’t taken to him. I do think he will take the world of beating. But it would freshen things up if something did. I love the way Grands Crus gallops and I’m not sure about him needing it soft. The Haydock hurdle course does not ride as soft as people think. It’s a myth. Horses kick the top off it. SM: Looking at his action you can be forgiven for thinking that Grands Crus wants soft ground. The hurdles course on the New Course has a lot of racing so I think it will be on the easy side. He is a different style of horse to the 3m stayers that Big Buck’s has usually been beating as he also has speed. RA: Grands Crus appeals to me at the moment of a being a soft-ground horse. He is very good but whether he can beat Big Buck’s is another matter. PJ: Not a two horse race at all as Mourad is bang in this, in fact, I think he will be second to Big Buck’s and not Grands Crus and is great value in a without Big Buck’s book at 9/2, especially e/w as he is not finishing out of the first four. Mourad has looked very good this season and will be even better on Festival ground. I think Big Buck’s will win but Mourad without the favourite is a better value bet. TRIUMPH HURDLE DM: I like tough horses like Marsh Warbler and Local Hero and not necessarily horses that set the world alight. A lot of horses disappointed at Haydock when Local Hero did so I would not worry about that defeat. SM: Grandouet has rather inherited his position at the top of the betting and I can’t get it out of my head how he was beaten at Wetherby. He doesn’t appeal at the price. In fact none of them do. One hurdles run for Zarkander would worry me. Smad Place for me at a push after a good confidence booster last time. RA: I’ve definitely got splinters from sitting on the fence on this race. Marsh Warbler if you twisted my arm. PJ: I can’t get Henderson’s comment out of my head when Grandouet won at Newbury was that he was a flat track horse and would miss Cheltenham for Aintree. I think he has too much speed for a Triumph as does A Media Luz and fastish ground and undulations would worry me for big, shouldery filly like Unaccompanied even though I was taken with her Grade 1 win last time. I like Smad Place e/w as he will love a fast-run 2m1f with a stiff finish as all he does is stay for a yard with a top-notch record in the race and he ran well at Chepstow when third to Marsh Warbler considering he wasn’t scoping right at the time in a tactical race that didn’t play to his strengths. He may need a bit of juice but I like his e/w chance a lot. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE DM: Storming Gale’s entry has been scrapped. I was under bidder on Champion Court at Doncaster and was very disappointed with him the last day – he hung. Kilcrea Kim beat Drill Sergeant here when I fancied Drill Sergeant like mad. I do like tough, hard horses like him in novice events. At a big price each-way I’d suggest Radetsky March. Jason has ridden him a couple of times and likes him. He’ll keep galloping. SM: A difficult race and I think there was an over-reaction to Back In Focus winning at Haydock on his hurdling debut. 7/1 is short off one run. I quite like Habbie Simpson if he runs here rather than the Coral Cup at 20/1 e/w as he is a tough sort which you need for this race. RA: I like Champion Court. The yard have been under a cloud but have hot form now. PJ: If it’s Goodish ground, that would put me right off Back In Focus, Join Together and Court In Motion. The two I like are Kilcrea Kim and Champion Court and hope the former runs here rather the Pertemps Final as bringing high quality handicap hurdle form into this race is a big plus. Champion Court injured himself last time so I would ignore that and judge him on his debut win over hurdles in a Grade 2 where he did everything wrong but still won and is crying out for this step up to 3m. GOLD CUP DM: I’m with Imperial Commander all the way. He’s a hell of a tool and it was a breath of fresh air when he won last year. You can’t say Denman and Kauto Star have gone but they are not what they were – that’s natural progression, isn’t it? As for Long Run, Kempton is a hugely different place to Cheltenham. I hear Albertas Run will run here. Weird Al is also a likely runner. SM: I’ve tied myself up in knots over this race which has been marred by seeing so little of the main contenders. I am not sure connections of Imperial Commander were as ebullient deep down about his Kempton workout as they made out last week but he is the reigning champ and is this race any stronger? Denman has lost seven of his last eight races and when I spoke to Nick Williams about Diamond Harry, he was most downcast last week saying he could be an autumn horse. I do still keep coming back to Imperial Commander. RA: Out with the old and in with the new. Long Run underachieved in the RSA but he has the right profile and there is not enough evidence to suggest he doesn’t handle Cheltenham and he certainly wasn’t stopping when he won the King George so the trip will not be a problem. PJ: Kauto Star has lost his speed, Denman has lost his mid-race ability to pulverise his rivals and no horse in 50 years has won Gold Cup off longer layoff than Imperial Commander and Diamond Harry. Kempes is very interesting as is coming right at the right time and will love decent ground which he hasn’t had in Ireland and we don’t know if Pandorama doesn’t handle Good ground yet and he is the right kind of age and does keep on winning. Long Run is the most likely winner. 12 length winners of the King George would normally be starting about 5/2 for the Gold Cup and he is only six so likely to get even better. Both Cheltenham runs he had excuses of sorts, gone in coat in RSA and 2m4f in Paddy Power got him out of rhythm at a time when yard out of sorts a bit, but he has not run the New Course yet and I reckon all he does is stay so the extra distance can be in his favour. If any horse could win the race by 15 lengths, it is Long Run. ANY OTHER BUSINESS DM: I’ll be taking a team of 10-12 to Cheltenham. Cinders And Ashes, my bumper horse, worked really nicely here yesterday and we were delighted with him. Ebanour is more likely to wait for the Aintree bumper. The step up another 2f is made for him. Chamirey is fairly high quality. He had as easier race as I could have hoped he would at Newcastle. He goes in the 4m, gets the trip and will run a big race if he jumps. FESTIVAL NAPS: DM: Peddlers Cross SM: Barafundle (Pertemps Final) RA: Quevega PJ: Medermit DO: So Young |
|
By:
Many thanks BJG
 |
|
By:
thanks
|
|
By:
really stupid comments made about hurricane fly.
|
|
By:
lots keen on zarkandar which is nice to see. if sam winner decided to eat lots of hay and meal and become grossly overweight id be more confident but beggars cant be choosers
|
|
By:
anyone at the red cow dublin preview night last night?
|
|
By:
"Hurricane Fly has only won in a bog in Ireland beating the same horse. I can’t have him"
i find it incredible that d mccain said that about this horse,he may very well be eating those words in a weeks time |
|
By:
again great work BJG, just curious on the preview night regarding paul nicholls comments on american trilogy as i have it backed and i think its so well in its ridiculous in the centenary, what exactly did he say about it ? im going to a preview on thurs and gonna ask ruby is he defo gonna ride it,
many thanks again |
|
By:
ttt
|
|
By:
http://kildare.tv/
|
|
By:
anyone know what was said at the Fontwell preview last night. Be interested to know what Steve Mellish said, I remember him being very keen on Menorah last year despite the Dunguib hype.
|
|
By:
whats that link for COM ?
|
|
By:
COM appreciate the link mate but bloody hell its hardly a cheltenham preview night when interviewing townend russell and chappers!
 |
|
By:
yeah it took a bit of time to get going.
Davy Russell is a complete waste of time. He put up a "dead cert" of Hendersons last year that was rubbish. Then at this years he took a load of stick about it so told everyone to get their cheltenham money by backing Ephorus (stuffed in ireland on sunday) and Resolute Bay (that rode like a pig today at Naas). |
|
By:
hiya lads....i havent been following the NH season much this year but still want to punt my loaf off next week,...are there any preview nights on in/near dublin over the weekend
|
|
By:
Towcester
Live Cheltenham tips from Andrew Mount, Mark Winstanley, Matt Chapman, Kieran Packman and Gold Cup Winner, Paddy Brennan. Robert Cooper (ATR) is in the chair for the night and Gary "The Wizard of Odds" Wiltshire will have all the latest prices. Hello. Paul Jones here, your host for the evening here at the Towcester Cheltenham Preview Evening. Room filling up nicely. Expecting 300. Kick off will probably be a little later than the 7.30 advertised (as always at these events) but all panellists confirmed as advertised The panel is Robert Cooper (RC) of Attheraces as Master of Ceremonies, Paddy Brennan (PB), Matt Chapman (MC) (broadcaster of year) Mark Winstanley (MW) (punter/tipster) (hope you don't mind swearing and bad taste jokes, Kieran Packman (KP) of Timeform Gary Wiltshire (GW) for a bit of jovialty more than tips I would say and our own Andrew Mount (AM) of gg.com & part owner of Reve De Sivola The format is I will give the race name and then crack on with the panellist comments using just their initials and then the quotes. Guessing it will finish at around a 10.00-10.15 as there will be a break after Day 2 analysis. This is the best fun preview on the circuit. Panel taken to stage at 7.45, Witlshire and Winstanley on same side of stage is a concern for health and safety SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE - Here we go Kieran Packman (KP): Cue Card has achieved more than Dunguib but is a bigger price. Joe Tizzard a worry though. Paddy Brennan (PB): Slates Packman for slating Tizzard. It's a one horse race and if Cure Card does everything right he will win Matt Chapman (MC): Tizzard would not be in the top 20 jockeys you would pick for Cue Card. Don't like his head carraige or fact found nil I like Spirit Son in this. His owner says McCoy rides the one Geraghty ditches. Trip wrong for Cue Card. Go with the speed horse S Son Mark Winstanley (MW): Handicapper got Cue Card so far clear but that is cos ran in Grade 2. Just heard Tranquil Sea so weak on Betfair for Ryanair. Could this mean he is out? Available at 20s!!!!!!! Andrew Mount (AM): Cue Card's novice form not working out. I am with Spirit Son. His sire also only had 5 fest runnners and 2 won.Lay C Card Gary Wiltshire (GW): Paddy Power give money back up to £200 if you lose and Cure Card wins so check them out MC: Sprinter Sacre is a big old boat of a chaser ARKLE TROPHY ANALYSIS MW: Medermit i am not sure about in a battle. too short. Massive price is Blazing Tempo. He is in Centenary but take 50/1 NR No bet KP: Blazing Tempo is Timeform top rated but reckon will go for the Centenary Hcap. I like fact Medermit of big 3 as had Festival form KP: Realt Dubh isn't far off big three on ratings. FInians Rainbow only beat 7 horses. Race fraught with danger PB: I would love to ride Medermit. Impressive last time, 2.5 when beaten by Hells Bay. 2m in fast race suit him ideally PB: Timmy Murphy has question marks about Ghizao on goodish ground MC: I'm not a fan of Medermit. He won't make a length at any fence and I want a horse that will be thrown at every fence MC: Finians Rainbow will be thrown at fences as that is when he jumps at his best so is exactly the kind of horse I want in the Arkle MC: Finians hated being held up last time. Made him look an iffy jumper but he isn't. They will let it free wheel and he stays further AM: Against Medermit as 0-5 at Cheltenham, not sure he comes up hill. All out to win last time when looked likely to win easy. AM: I am a Ghizao fan. He can outbattle Medermit MW: At this time of year 99 horses shorten and 1 drifts. And that 1 is usually dead. A few women shaking their hands at Winstanley's endless swearing. This is the Towcester Preview Night!!!! CHAMPION HURDLE ANALYSIS PB: Last year might have been Khyber's nbig chance. Has e/w chance and will be dropped in and ridden to be placed. anything else be a bonus PB: Menorah the one to beat. I think Peddlers Cross is a chaser in the making AM: I am with Binocular, nailed on for this., should have won the last 2 years AM: Ignore last run, some serious punters were lumping to win under six lengths. They just kept hammering it KP: Neptune not really worked out and Fighting Fifth everyone knew Binocular not fit so Peddlers Cross to short KP: Khyber Kim way too big on pure form at 16/1 and Oscar Whisky also overpriced KP: Hurricane Fly visually very impressive. only 4lbs below Binocular but hill worries me a little MW: Katchit won as 5yo but worst Champion Hurdle in yrs so I am getting out of my Mille Chief bet. Can't have Khyber Kim at any price. MW: No one really knows how good Hurricane Fly is. Can't have Dunguib at all. Menorah is bombproof but I missed the price MW: I've backed Thousand Stars at 50/1. Will be laying P Cross, can't have it at all. Even Starluck bt Binocular at Newbury behind him MW: I'm playing match bet big on Hurricane Fly to finish ahead of Peddlers Cross. KP: Oscar Whisky my value bet MC: Winstanley can't have got this race more wrong!!!! MC: Menorah solid but not brilliant. Hurricane Fly guess job what he will do. Jumps a bit right as well, can't do that at Cheltenham MC: History dictates 2m4f horses win the Champion Hurdle so big plus for Peddlers Cross. Tactics fascinating. Overturn can play as team MC: But I would like to see Overturn not run & PC to make all and be fired at every hurdle AM: Just heard Our Girl Salley is a non runner in the Mares Hurdle MC: I like Definity in the Centenary, he will be well backed, Nicholls thinks very good chance, will be near 5/1 PB: L'Accordioniste is a mare I hold in very high regard and goes for the mares race. Ignore her Ascot run KP: Magens Star is a good NR no bet fancy for the Mares Hurdle at 20s. Will be 10s if runs MW: I've backed Great Endeavour in the Andy Stewart. Heard Pipey sticking headgear on him as will Dan Breen in the Arkle MW: Fact Great Endeavour entered for Gold Cup big factor, must have decent ground. 9s now but can't have Bensalem.....ridiculous price AM: I own a share in Reve De Sivola. He is 14 with Coral for Spinal Research Hcap. will be much shorter and trainer thinks well hcapped NEPTUNE NOVICES' HURDLE ANALYSIS AM: I want to be against Bobs Worth. I like Tornado Bob for last yr's winning stable. Done well to win over 2m. Unlucky last time. 16s value PB: Not sure I have a run. So Young a big talking horse in Ireland. Don't see why Rock On Ruby should reverse with Bobs Worth. KP: Be surprised in Bobs Worth not in the first 4. Prince Of Pirates more interesting of Hendersons at the prices. Took him out of Supreme MW: I want to be against Oscars Well. Ridiculous price at 7/2. Prince Of Pirates and Bobs Worth similar ability on bumper form KP: You also haver to take it on trust Oscars Well will go on the ground GW: I want to lay Oscars Well for a place. MC: I've spent lot of time with Townend this week. Her adores So Young but not saying so outwardly as wants Walsh on Rock On Ruby RSA CHASE ANALYSIS David Bridgwater in audeince and runs The Giant Bolster Says he stays very well and he is a very good jumper. Satisfied with his Cheltenham win last time as his prep for that race not ideal Good performance as needed it, was soft ground and had top wt. He is a brilliant ew bet at 25/1. If Henderson trained him would be shorter Roddi Greene will ride him says owner in audience, schools him and knows him back to front so wouldn't swap him PB: Time For Rupert has no chinks and think he is the one to beat in next year's Gold Cup. With a clear round he will win impressively MC: I have an inkling Webber got cold feet about running TFR in Argento as if won pressure would have been on to run in Gold Cup Owner of TFR in audience puts Chapman straight. Says trach wash not up to scratch. Chapman comes back - convenient excuse MC: I would rather back TFR at 9/4 than Cue Card. He is Evens on form but know Hemmings love Wymott KP: TFR good thing. Awful opposition. How 1833 has a rating of 159 is stupid. Phil Smith got that figure from a bingo machine KP: I know the owner is here but only problem with TFR is the trainer. When was the last time he won a decent race? MW: (defends Webber) MW: TFR most obvious winner but do I want to back him at 9/4? No. I've been told 1833 has improved out of all recognition MW: Quel Esprit, Jessies Dream and Wymott are all runners so don't want 9/4 although best horse MC: Spent lot of time with Gordon Eliiott last week. Jessie Dream is a horrible thing, stay away from him in the paddock AM: The Giant Bolster e/w for me, (relayed stats too quickly to remember them!!!) CHAMPION CHASE ANALYSIS PB: Master Minded hard to judge, probably better on softer. Somersby was interesting horse of race, says could now go Ryanair PB: Didn't like her comments about Hadden Frost recently. Wonder if could go Ryanair on a jockey angle, hoping AP can ride Obviously AP has to ride Captain Cee Bee in Champion Chase. Does seem strange she didn't contemplate it might be Good ground for the Festival and could be smokescreen so AP rides by switching race? MC: Big Zeb is not a great two miler so surprised if he won two Champion Chases, Woocomb folly way too short, C Cee Bee breaks blood vessels I like Sizing Europe e/w on the Arkle stat (last 12 to run all placed at worst) but Master Minded still the best two miler around AM: Very keen for Big Zeb who is 6/6 when given six weeks or more off over 2m. Never fallen for Geraghty. Master Minded not to be in first 3 AM: I also want to back Big Zeb to beat Master Minded in a match KP: Kicked too soon on Master Minded last time. Golden Silver too big at 14/1 if Big Zeb is 3/1 as hardly anything between them MC: I am worried Golden Silver takes too long to warm up in his race and could be too far back even though he is now a hold up horse MW: Master Minded must have soft and with Mad Max going 100% mph with Sizing E hard on heels I think Master Minded will be taken off feet MW: Big Zeb won worst Champion Chase run for ages. Captain Cee Be is a burster and doesn't jump, who knows where Somersby will run MW: Still think 8/1 good price for Woolcombe Folly who has a good turn of foot. Think this will go to a new kid on the block GW: You can lay the front two at Evens which looks the way to go. DAY 2 SHOULDER RACES ANALYSIS MW: I reckon they will smash into Call The Police for the Coral Cup...interested as a back to lay here and now AM: I know Nick Williams think For Non Stop is very well handicapped for Coral Cup. Trainer only had 2 runners in race both 3rd at big price MC: Titan De Sarti worked all over Grandouet last wk & goes for Fred Winter. Owner had lumpy bet, is he a morning glory though? MC: IF Bygones Of Brid runs in Bumper I think this is a superstar in the making. Owned by Harry Redknapp. tender handling last time KP: two of my stronger views of week are an Irish horse will win NH Chase. Alfa Beat my preference, revelation since switched to Byrnes KP: BHA handicappers frightened off plot in Fred Winter. Irish all look 10lbs too high. Tenor Nivernais is very interesting WORLD HURDLE ANALYSIS KP: I am shoulder deep where Grands Crus is concerned, Would be a life changer for me if he wins KP: So I can't have a rational view on this race any more! Also big on Grands Crus without fav. Not concerned about ground. g/s last twice MW: Big Buck's bet of the meeting. It's Matt Chapman's kind of price too! Ruby said could go close in Champion Hdle. 11/8 massive price. PB: Grands Crus is a danger to fav. Did a preview with Dan Skelton and he made me believe he is an even bigger cert than I thought he was. MC: If GC beats Big Buck's then he has to be so exceptional. Just keeps winning & no one knows how good BB really is as never tested MC: Grands Crus is terrible value. Mourad only beat Moskova last time who would be lapped here. BB bombproof however way race is run. MC: You can 5/4 about 4/6 shot. Banker AM: Mourad e/w at 5/1 without fav is the bet. Can't be out first 4 & could beat Grands Crus as race likely to suit him being a hold up horse MC: I can see Grands Crus pulling himself into the ground and blowing out totally RYANAIR ANALYSIS KP: Race cut up, Henrietta looks like changed mind again but she doesn't trained winners anymore, a small time trainer now. KP: This race shouldn't be at Festival, I'm dead against Kalahari King. Trainer talks a better game than he is. About 3 winners this year PB: I hear Tranquil Sea could be a NR. Poquelin sets the standard. Tartak I ride. He needs to raise his game to have e/w chance MC: Massive Albertas Run fan but talkiing of Gold Cup now. Madness! If 1 class act in Ryanair it is him. Never care about form of yard TRIUMPH HURDLE ANALYSIS MW: I like Sam Winner. He beat Grandouet 15 lengths but is a bigger price and told he did a really nice piece of work last week. KP: Don't think Nicholls got a strong team this year bar Big Buck's but like 2 of his here - Sam Winner and Zarkander. The form of Sam Winner is the best on offer. Unaccompanied visually very impressive but I am struggling to come up with a figure for her. PB: I'm with Zarkander. The Adonis is always a good race and he won it well on his hurdling debut so must be very decent. MC: I was on a panel with Dermot Weld last week and he kept stresses Unaccompanied needs soft ground. Marsh Warbler would be 7/1 if trainer by Nicholls or Henderson rather than Ellison. I really like Smad Place though and the way he jumps for a yard that win this race. ALBERT BARTLETT ANALYSIS PB: Looks like I am getting the jock off Sybarite and Sam rides. He is only 5 and weak though so three miles might be a problem. MC: No view but Hoilesy is all over Habbie Simpson and says 20/1 is a great NR No bet selection as 10/1 on the day. GOLD CUP ANALYSIS MW: Is this the new veteran's race at the Festival? I can't have any of Dads Army. Pandorama trained by Meade who has won more Festival races than Germany have won World Wars. MW: China Rock overpriced at 50/1. Up and coming improving individual that likes good ground. Midnight Chase has absolutely no chance whatsoever. MW: Only time the French use hills for the Tour De France and Waley-Cohen can't claim his 5lbs so got to be a negative for Long Run. PB: I'm getting very excited now. Kauto wouldn't have beaten us last year had he stood up. Aintree was a disaster and I should have pulled him up. PB: He got tired at Haydock having travelled very well 2 out. In his gallop at Warwick he felt he like he did in the King George. He didn't give me the feel that day I was expecting. PB: My honest opinion on his next gallop was that he felt 85% right. I'm schooling him in the morning and that will tell me lot. Not worried about Kauto or Denman. PB: Long Run can't be written off but all is well travelling at top of hill. Not sure he will last home. Imperial Commander is the one to beat 100%. He looks a million. MC: So hard this race, you wouldn't touch it if it wasn't the Gold Cup. Everything about a horse that hits 11 says they are now too old. PB: There is only one young pretender unless heavy for Pandorama. If Kempes wins by Intikhab you can throw form books out the window. PB: Earplugs could have made all the difference to Long Run settling. Tidal Bay is an old rogue, you can't really think Midnight Chase will win a Gold Cup. PB: At 10 you are just about young enough and he is a course specialist so 7/2 is fair price for Imperial Commander. KP: Imperial Commander should be nearer 7/4. Anyone considering backing Long Run just watch the RSA and that will put you off. Shape of jumping all wrong. KP: Imperial Commander lightly raced for a 10yr. Proper Gd 1 horse. Midnight Chase is 14/1 for Christ's sake. Had a good bet at 7/2. Would like to hear Paddy say is 99% though PB: Maybe 85% is harsh. Still good enough to beat these if 90% AM: Denman won only 1 of 8 races since heart problems. Kempes has more chance in the Lincoln than the Gold Cup. Tidal Bay can plod on into a place. AM: Process of elimination and it has to be Imperial Commander. FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES PB: Baby Run looks great and he is even better than last year. He is the stable banker of the meeting. MC: I would rather back Baby Run at 7/2 than Imperial Commander at same price. GW: You need to stay 4m to win this and I really fancy Gone To Lunch MW: My hunter chase man Mick Connaughton says Gone To Lunch. Loves the track KP: Grand Annual is always race I start with, great betting race. Shoreacres interesting. Ran well both starts at Festival. KP: Course form, jumps well, ticks many horses and handicap debut. |
|
By:
cheers BJG
|
|
By:
whos kieran packman? sounds like a whiney b0ll0x. thanks for that bjg
|
|
By:
Cheers BJG, threads a cracking read. Any reports from Maynooth last night about?
|
|
By:
kieran is one of the top men at timeform
knows his stuff and good to listen to probably forgotten more than you'll ever know |
|
By:
cheers, BJG - they're getting their bygones mixed up - it's Bygones of Brid in Champion Hurdle and Redknapp's Bygones in Brid in The Bumper
|
|
By:
sounds like Brennan fancies Long Run more than Imperial Commander [;)]
|
|
By:
probably forgotten more than you'll ever know with a comment like that im not surprised youre one of his following
|
|
By:
I have said it many times get on bygones in brid in the bumper. super value
|
|
By:
kieran packman is a sound judge and decent craic.
its always a good laugh at tow preview night bjg...i think someone will be very pleased that you missed a few certain comments out !!! mind you,its the only thing that you missed out..how long did it take you to type that up? |
|
By:
ps...re the bumper;how does harrys horse beat hendersons then?
|
|
By:
he might be but in fairness having issues about cue card because of joe tizzard and about time for rupert because of paul webber is madness imo[smiley:crazy]
|