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Cheltenham Festival
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Pro's ; He jumps well . He loves the course. He won last years Gold Cup inspite of the Jockey taking it wide most of the way.
He won easily last year in what looked a good race with Denman putting in a top performance. This years race looks
weak with the 2 Nichols horses looking on the decline and the 2nd fav unlikely to jump well enough around cheltenham
or stay well enough.
Con's : The horse hasn't run for ages and could blow up. The trainer's horses in general hit form in streaks and I wouldn't count
on him being in the same form as last year, in fact its unlikely. His racecourse gallop didn't look good and he didn't
appear to be in the same condition as last year.
Conclusion: If he reproduced last years form 7/2 is a good price as its difficult to see what could beat him.
Because he is so superior he could even win producing a slightly below par effort.
I could never have a big bet on him because I don't trust the trainer to have him bang on,( if Nichols or Henderson
trained him I would), the price is very tempting though and he turns up in mint condition in the paddock I may change my
mind.(Others may spot it and the price could collapse late on )
He won easily last year in what looked a good race with Denman putting in a top performance. This years race looks
weak with the 2 Nichols horses looking on the decline and the 2nd fav unlikely to jump well enough around cheltenham
or stay well enough.
Con's : The horse hasn't run for ages and could blow up. The trainer's horses in general hit form in streaks and I wouldn't count
on him being in the same form as last year, in fact its unlikely. His racecourse gallop didn't look good and he didn't
appear to be in the same condition as last year.
Conclusion: If he reproduced last years form 7/2 is a good price as its difficult to see what could beat him.
Because he is so superior he could even win producing a slightly below par effort.
I could never have a big bet on him because I don't trust the trainer to have him bang on,( if Nichols or Henderson
trained him I would), the price is very tempting though and he turns up in mint condition in the paddock I may change my
mind.(Others may spot it and the price could collapse late on )
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Pro's: From a betting point of view, the trainer and connections are very honest on what the horse is, he has been seen twice in public twice since his last run, once not so good and the other as good as last year. The trainer and his current connections makes the horse and it would be easy to argue that if the horse was trained by anybody else it would not be the horse it is today (would likely be alot heavier raced). He is an absolute Cheltenham specialist, and has only ever run badly there when hurting.
Con's: The horse has always ad physical issues which have made it difficult to place him. The horse is a year older and hasnt had the perfect run up early season. Conclusion: The horse wins doing handstands imo. The only times he has ran against even the greats like Kauto Star and Denman with conditions that suit him (left-handed) he has proved his class and he is alot more lightly raced and a year younger. |
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Long Run is the danger - Twiston-Davies is very bullish - IC was an each way steal at 4/1 with Hills last week
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time for gold cup 13 secs faster than the foxhunters, although baby run carried extra 4lbs and had stable 2nd string, and going was officially "good" for gold cup and changed to "good to soft" for foxhunters... surely not great stats?
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