Over Priced Horses for Festival

Paintball - Fred Winter, 33s the other day
79 rated on the flat

Sizing Europe. Beat Somersby and CCB in last year's Arkle, yet they are shorter in the betting? Why?

Likes a strong 2m, Festival form. Am I missing something...

Khyber Kim in CH[smiley:crazy] bonkers price fo a horse with his ability imo!

Solwhit is overpriced in the world hurdle.Yes stamina is unproven but given he stayed two miles well on the flat and that he has grade one winning form over two and a half miles his current price is an insult.Only out of the frame once in his last twelve starts over hurdles all of which were grade ones.Could it be that he has been simply coming up against genuine grade one two milers this year and needs a step up in trip?Maybe,maybe not but at the current price i think hes worth consideration

Gravy, you're assuming Somersby hasn't improved since? I'd back him to reverse the Arkle form quite comfortably.

Mossley- Albert Bartlett 25/1 in a place.

CD winner giving Join Together (best price 11/1) 4lb, before not going a yard in a gluepot at Warwick.If

Mad Max has been Nicky Henderson's 2nd string in all of his 2 racecourse appearances this season.

He has had terrible wind problems in the past and Nicky is on record as saying he wouldn't be rushing him this season.

He made Somersby and The Nightingale  look very ordinary at Aintree last season so he lacks nothing in class.

He may well be worth a few quid for the Grand Annual 16/1 a race Nicky would really love to win.

Quel Esprit in the RSA.

In his RP column on Sat, Henderson reckons they're likely to head for Champion Chase with Mad Max.

Dunraven Storm in the Supreme. Beat Recession Proof comfortably at Ascot, second to Cue Card at Cheltenham then disappointed in a bog at Haydock at 1-2. Was 50-1 NRNB last week, still 40-1 in a place whereas the horse he beat who has been kept on the go is 5 times shorter. Well rested and Hobbs/Johnson's only runner in a race they won last year and have made the places in before.

Dunraven's 4 wins have come on right handed courses, his 3 defeats were going left handed.

Planet of Sound 50/1 - Gold Cup.

1,2,2,1,4,1,1,3,1,11,1.  Form figures on courses 15f+ in circumference.
Has festival form
Ran in King George (add Lexus) which the last god knows how many Gold Cup winners ran in
Grade 1 winner.

CV, what do you like about Quel Esprit? I think he's one of the most overrated horses in training.

I think it's a case of "overpriced horses". His Haydock defeat came in glue and he was a clear 2nd to Cue Card at Cheltenham. I do like left handed course winners but only when it's clear they have a preference and there's nothing yet in his form to suggest it.

clerks choice is massive odds,won easily at chelt in a fast time,loads to find but 180s on here

which race barton?

champ hurdle sorry

Wicketd Quel Esprit has always been one who will be seen a2 his best over fences. Even so Mullins picked him as his best bet of last years festival while Ruby chose to ride him twice no less at lazy years festival. It's been plain to see the regard he is held in. mullins was talking about him being one for the rsa even before he jumped a fence.

Noting has gone right for him this year, the weather made him miss both his intended engagements around christmas and then his fall in the pj moriarty was what swayed mullins towards running him in the easier assignment of the 4 miler. But then that racecourse gallop really impressed them, and it seems like despite the fall his confidence wasn't effected. Also the run seems to have put him right.

There's been lots of good vibes about him and if you watch his debut run over fences you'll see how excellent he can jump. With 1833 and him in the field it'll be a stamina test surely and if he jumps like he can and given he stays all day he will certainly make the frame.

At the time of posting he was 25/1 with  lads and value e/w at that.

maljimar in the xc

Fair enough, 25/1 is a big price if you feel he'll live up to his 'regard'. I wasn't impressed with his debut over fences personally. Torpichen came there travelling much better but was outstayed in the bad ground. He then takes a fall when looking very vulnerable at Leopardstown.

Whether he has his confidence back or not can only be judged on the track imo. His Cheltenham form reads F6, and although he didn't get anywhere in the Neptune, his run in the Albert Bartlett doesn't scream future RSA winner. I think I'll take Mullins comments about him being his best bet with a pinch of salt.

But, as I've said, you can't argue with your price, but I'd price him up as a 33/1+ shot. The 12s on offer with VC are criminal.

Well his debut was over 2m3f where he made the running. Given he was about to run in the 4 miler you'd have to agree 2m3f is far too short for him and more to Torphichen's distance. Quel was headed and battled back to win, but his jumping was what was exceptional that day, he raced against fit and experienced rivals in the PJ Moriarty and that race seems to have brought him on instead of knocking him back.

Anyway he's a horse I have always liked from backing him in Dunguibs bumper and felt he would be seen at his best over fences, I'm glad he goes for the RSA and I'd be happy if he placed.

Anyway he clearly was over priced as he's come in to 14/1 now. But I understand others not being sweet on him given he and Time for Rupert fail at the at least 3 runs over fences stat.

One 'unfasionable' horse I like the for a place in the RSA is The Giant Bolster. Don't think the field is very strong. Stayed on strongly up the hill behind Peddlers Cross last season and stayed on once again over 2m4f when winning a handicap off top weight in Jan.

On his chasing debut, despite not jumping brilliantly, he looked better the further he went and easily pulled clear of the runner up after the last. Was travelling kindly when falling in the race Time For Rupert won on his chase debut.

Always shaped like he needs this trip and he won't be stopping up the hill. 25/1 is available and if the ground is good that price will look very big imo.

The Giant Bolsterer was off the bridle that time the whole way, that was an entertaining race he won alright. Pearlysteps in 3rd is a horse I have followed this season. Just don't think GB jumps well enough to win an RSA. Talented none the less.

It's how he runs. Off the bridle but came back onto it nicely before falling.

Oh, just realised you were talking about the other race. I'd put that down to the trip, he gets better the further he goes imo.

With hindsight, I wouldn't even put that down to the trip actually. He just never got into any sort of rhythm.

You see that race? the entire field were all over the place, dodgey jumps all off the bridle miles out. Great race though. I think Pearlysteps is one for the William hill chase, his 4l 2nd to Wymott is good form and on that line The Giant bolsterer has a chance.

Think French Opera is a big price for the Champion Chase, If it stays dry could see him finishing 2nd to Big Zeb or maybe even sneak it, loves the track and don't think his handicap performance in last years GA is far removed from what Woolcombe Folly achieved in course H'cap at end of year and FO is about 5 times the price of that one.

Grand Annual=Stagecoach Pearl 43 on here.
Arkle=Captain Chris 12/1

Rubi Light - 33/1 ew NRNB for the Ryanair.  Cracking run last time beating a decent field by 10 lengths

quito de la roque, 10/1 nat hunt chase

Bostons Angel is surely value at 16/1 for the RSA. Twice a Grade 1 Winner, won over distance, Trainer knows how to prep one....

Agree with Saritamer re French Opera. Doesn't have much to find at all.

Albertas Run is a 12/1 shot for the Ryanair.

Has to put a couple of lacklustre runs behind him this season, but his festival form and the fact he is 2nd top rated in the race mean he cannot be taken lightly imo

Gagewell Flyer at 20/1 is massively overpriced for the albert bartlett,twice an easy duel grade 2 winner giving weight away,looks certain to run in a race which could easily cut up a lot,looks a class act and great stable and jockey

divine rhapsody 33s for the bumper,will be half those odds on the day [;)]

^already on [;)]

Also Double Double 33/1 will be half that on the day too.

good stuff cv,wasnt sure if double double was an intended runner,but DR beat him well on his one and only start

Ha ha ... mug betting shop talk from evra

eric_morris
07 Mar 11 22:35 Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 2,134 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
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dont ye just love forum beta

hi eric. fuuck off. thanks

block button works wonders rev

I wouldn't say he beat him well, DD went very wide turning into the straight that day and was giving him 2lbs. He also has had 3 runs winning the other 2 giving him the experience edge. Both are stand out value and since we're in nrnb territory it doesn't matter if they don't run up.

couldnt agree more cv,
nr/nb=no brainer when placing bets,good luck

Aye, wish you'd combine block with totally ignoring him too. I hate threads cluttered up by people replying to people like eric, denman85, mayweather etc..

i know but i cant be arsed. his views are well worth listening to anyhow, like everyone who thinks willie mullins is incompitent[smiley:crazy]

Excellent ... mission accomplished

The more betting shop punters who have discovered the keyboard to block me the better.

eric, you talk bullsh1t just to see the response, boring and irritant really. why not just buy a parrot and forget about the whole betfair thing

pandorama if soft will win. 14s too big.
big bucks at 5/4. this horse has not lost for 10 races on the bounce. he has not been running in mickey mouse races either.
french opera is of similar ability to woolcombe folly but is much bigger price.
bygones in brid(if it runs) could be overlooked in the bumper. still very green when finishing behind a polished article in ericht in what was a very good bumper.

You should block me revedesivola ... do it.

Big Bucks is very good value now.

not for you to dictate eric

French Opera way overpriced for the Champion Chase.

Loves Chelters, improving rapidly. Was extremely impressed last year and he has gone from strength to strength. @ Newbury I watched very very closely and he absolutely hosed up jumping beautifully too.

razor royal 40's is HUGE

Just 13 left in the Arkle and amongst them is MIKAEL D'HAGUENET.
He was not helped by fall of Quel Espirit in the PJ Moriarty and lost plenty of ground.
I thought he responded well to gather them back in on run-up to last fence, but the effort took a lot out of him and he couldn't take it up.
I reckon the drop back to 2 mile will suit him well, and at 20/1 (SJ NRNB) he could be worth a nibble given lack of depth in this race.