Cheltenham Festival
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04 Mar 11
13:29
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30 Mar 08
The banks races have often been seen as an Enda Bolger benefit race, but over recent seasons the tide has been turning against him and his brigade. One reason that could be put forward for this is now horses from other trainers have gained more experience round the course and hence are much more suited to the unique test it provides. Below are the RPRs for the more frequent competitors in these kind of races. The RPRs WITHOUT brackets are those achieved at Cheltenham, whereas, those WITH are for the Punchestown's banks course. The most recent rating is on the right.
Garde Champetre - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152
Lacdoudal - 136, 140
Sizing Australia - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143
A New Story - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141
L'Ami - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138)
Silver Birch - 137, (131), 150, (132), 114, (126), 87
Drombeag - (111), 135, 129, (131), PU, 132, (122)
Dix Villez - (120), 136, 112, UR
Native Jack - (127), 134, (71), 130, (115), 77, 134
Freyneys Well - (113), 121, 128, (123), (126), 137, (98), 137, (137), (128), 125
Heads Onthe Ground - (119), 122, (106), (141), 145, (137), (145), (127), 100, (67)............
Wonderkid - (103), 116, (99), (PU), 134, 107, (134), (124), PU, 93
Royal Auclair - 129, 124, 133, 144, 119
Interestingly also the great Spot Thedifference unseated first time out over a banks course after 'virtually refusing'. He of course went on to master the cross country course at Cheltenham and perhaps managed to continue defying the handicapper (like Garde Champetre) because of how much improvement each horse can make after an additional run over the unique course. The fact that even course specialists such as Spot Thedifference and Garde Champetre both failed to complete the course first time out for Enda Bolger means I couldn't back one of his first time out in such an event (Arabella Boy).
As can be seen from most of these horses there is usually a pretty uphill trend as they gain more experience. So what does that mean for this year's renewal? Below are the main contenders and their respective RPRs.
Garde Champetre (9/2f) - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152
L'Ami (13/2) - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138)
Sizing Australia (8/1) - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143
A New Story (14/1) - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141
Maljimar (14/1) - 144
King Johns Castle (14/1) - (126)
One Cool Cookie (16/1) -(UR)
Another Jewel (20/1) - (135), 135, (132)
Arabella Boy, Poker De Sivola, Gullible Gordon, Northern Alliance, Fair Along and Dream Alliance - All never run.
As I have said experience is key so I would more or less rule out any of the last group. This is backed up by the fact that the last 21 winners of Cheltenham X-C races have all run over a banks course before.
For me looking at the above results the stand out bet is Maljimar at 14/1. He managed to run an RPR of 144 on his first run at the course, which is absolutely massive given the above statistics. It is very likely (though I haven't checked every race) that Maljimar's run was the best ever debut by a horse over a banks course on strict ratings. He jumped very well in the main the day bar a few errors, one of which was at the last which cost him valuable momentum.
For that race he is 8lbs better off with Garde Champetre for a 3l defeat, and a massive 13lbs better off with Sizing Australia for a 2.25l defeat. Yet both are much shorter in the betting even though on that day they both already had experience over the course. Since then much has gone right for him but as a consequence he has dropped 8lbs in the weights to a very generous 134. In truth he's only had 3 runs, twice over the Grand National fences (fell both times, though departed at 22nd in GN going very well), and then one run on New Year's Day over the regular obstacles. However, it must be noted at the time Nick William's horses had been badly held up by the weather so this run can be forgiven. He is 11 now but he is not past it for this kind of race with the winners of it before being aged 12, 12, 10, 9, 10 and 12. Also he's a lightly raced 11 year old with 24 runs to his name, compared to 12yo Garde Champetre who has had 39 starts.
At 14/1 I think he has to make massive E/W (4 places) value especially with the Bolger pair of L'ami and Garde Champetre not looking great this season. As an alternative I would pick Another Jewel, but I really do think Maljimar is a massive price at 14/1 and must be taken if possible.
GL EC
http://cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com/
Garde Champetre - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152
Lacdoudal - 136, 140
Sizing Australia - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143
A New Story - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141
L'Ami - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138)
Silver Birch - 137, (131), 150, (132), 114, (126), 87
Drombeag - (111), 135, 129, (131), PU, 132, (122)
Dix Villez - (120), 136, 112, UR
Native Jack - (127), 134, (71), 130, (115), 77, 134
Freyneys Well - (113), 121, 128, (123), (126), 137, (98), 137, (137), (128), 125
Heads Onthe Ground - (119), 122, (106), (141), 145, (137), (145), (127), 100, (67)............
Wonderkid - (103), 116, (99), (PU), 134, 107, (134), (124), PU, 93
Royal Auclair - 129, 124, 133, 144, 119
Interestingly also the great Spot Thedifference unseated first time out over a banks course after 'virtually refusing'. He of course went on to master the cross country course at Cheltenham and perhaps managed to continue defying the handicapper (like Garde Champetre) because of how much improvement each horse can make after an additional run over the unique course. The fact that even course specialists such as Spot Thedifference and Garde Champetre both failed to complete the course first time out for Enda Bolger means I couldn't back one of his first time out in such an event (Arabella Boy).
As can be seen from most of these horses there is usually a pretty uphill trend as they gain more experience. So what does that mean for this year's renewal? Below are the main contenders and their respective RPRs.
Garde Champetre (9/2f) - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152
L'Ami (13/2) - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138)
Sizing Australia (8/1) - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143
A New Story (14/1) - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141
Maljimar (14/1) - 144
King Johns Castle (14/1) - (126)
One Cool Cookie (16/1) -(UR)
Another Jewel (20/1) - (135), 135, (132)
Arabella Boy, Poker De Sivola, Gullible Gordon, Northern Alliance, Fair Along and Dream Alliance - All never run.
As I have said experience is key so I would more or less rule out any of the last group. This is backed up by the fact that the last 21 winners of Cheltenham X-C races have all run over a banks course before.
For me looking at the above results the stand out bet is Maljimar at 14/1. He managed to run an RPR of 144 on his first run at the course, which is absolutely massive given the above statistics. It is very likely (though I haven't checked every race) that Maljimar's run was the best ever debut by a horse over a banks course on strict ratings. He jumped very well in the main the day bar a few errors, one of which was at the last which cost him valuable momentum.
For that race he is 8lbs better off with Garde Champetre for a 3l defeat, and a massive 13lbs better off with Sizing Australia for a 2.25l defeat. Yet both are much shorter in the betting even though on that day they both already had experience over the course. Since then much has gone right for him but as a consequence he has dropped 8lbs in the weights to a very generous 134. In truth he's only had 3 runs, twice over the Grand National fences (fell both times, though departed at 22nd in GN going very well), and then one run on New Year's Day over the regular obstacles. However, it must be noted at the time Nick William's horses had been badly held up by the weather so this run can be forgiven. He is 11 now but he is not past it for this kind of race with the winners of it before being aged 12, 12, 10, 9, 10 and 12. Also he's a lightly raced 11 year old with 24 runs to his name, compared to 12yo Garde Champetre who has had 39 starts.
At 14/1 I think he has to make massive E/W (4 places) value especially with the Bolger pair of L'ami and Garde Champetre not looking great this season. As an alternative I would pick Another Jewel, but I really do think Maljimar is a massive price at 14/1 and must be taken if possible.
GL EC
http://cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com/
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Excellent write up as per usual EC.
(How is Extreme Conviction by the way? Waiting for the summer ground again... ) I like Another Jewel in this, thought he ran a good first race in this last year and if the ground is a bit softer this year it will definitely be in his favour. Roughly 20/1, think that's fair. |
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He's back in training now TD. Originally the aim was to start him off in the Coral Cup/Martin Pipe (looks unlikely he would have got in anyway though) but he had a slight set back with a leg problem. Should hopefully be out early April. The 2m5f handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham April Meeting (won by Quartz De Thaix last year) was originally going to be his second run, so I guess he might start there. Still think there's plenty to come from him, in his last run he beat santera 2l giving her 4lbs and she is now rated 139 (pulled a long way clear) yet he's only still on 126. Could imagine having a few runs over hurdles then maybe switching to fences at some point.
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Yep, just noticed that Santera form, i'm sure he'll give you plenty more paydays, especially with the good ground looming !
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Yes, I like Another Jewel. Among the younger ones for this comparatively, but building some useful experience now in the cross country races. Experience in France useful.
Excellent write up, EC. Maljimar has similar ratings from non cross country races to horses that have dominated the cross country division, such as Spot and Garde. Many of those who compete in the cross country are lesser horses in terms of their best ratings outside of the cross country sphere. Spot and Garde brought a bit more class (relatively speaking) to the banks races in that respect, with Garde holding his own in reasonable company as a younger horse over hurdles. |
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They amble round and round for ever..then run like bunnies for the last furlong. Silly race.
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Good preview, some interesting stuff there.
I agree Maljimar is a danger to GC, I just wonder whether they're using this as a warm up for an Aintree bid. As you say experience is key and unless he's been schooled to death at home I'd prefer to stick with GC at 9/2 who would have won last year IMO were it not for a horror mistake and getting badly hampered as they rounded for home. 9/2 each way is a steal, he can't be out the four |
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no sir, not entered in the national
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Great post - GC has rarely let me down but wouldnt be surprised to see Maljimar placed and best of luck! Will probably stay loyal to GC but not as confident as before.
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National Hunt's equivalant of crazy golf.
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