How much will the fields cut up ?

I quite like the look of Chance Du Roy in the Byrne Group Plate who seems to have some strong trends in his favour.  Trouble is he's at 40 in the list and I was wondering whether 10 will drop out above him in the weights (assuming a max field of 30?)

I also like the look of Teddy's Reflection in the Kim Muir but he's ranked 53rd in the list.  Therefore two questions

1. What are the chances that any of these two will get a run?
2. How do fields generally cut up in all the races ?

Cheers !