Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
With doubts about all the contenders will last years Ryanair winner be the one?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 48
|
By:
bit early to be on the beer imo
|
|
By:
Straight jacket and a padded cell required me thinks.
|
|
By:
he is only going on what the trainer has just stated on atr
|
|
By:
Sorry I'm only asking the question, won Sun Alliance and Ryanair, comes right in the spring 100s on here, now considering Tidal Bay is 30 on here, just makes you think.
|
|
By:
Wouldn't back it @ 1000! Out of form, took a pearler LTO, not up to winning a sub-standard gold cup never mind this year's renewal
|
|
By:
wont stay,end of chance
|
|
By:
What did the trainer say on atr? I have backed him at 100/1 NRNB. I think he will only run on good ground so if he does run I cant see him going off bigger than 33s. Also why wont he stay? Im not saying that he will but it seems a strange thing to say about a RSA chase winner.
|
|
By:
Last time he ran in race he was thrashed out of sight.
He is a Ryanair horse at top level. |
|
By:
Plcam you cant compare an RSA and a gold cup imo. Totally different calibre of horses
|
|
By:
should stick to ryanair...not many better than him at the trip
|
|
By:
O Neill on RUK said he will be going for Gold Cup. I think there is quite a lot to happen in the next 2 weeks as in a few non runners from this race.
|
|
By:
if this is true,he is stark raving bonkers.
What the heck is he playing at?? |
|
By:
I did say on another thread a week or so on here that I thought he'd go for the gold cup. They talked the owner into the Ryanair last year and it worked. Given his complete lack of form over any trip this season and the fact that he owes the owner/trainer nothing why not have a pop at the big one? He probably wont be winning either but if you are gambling on a return to form in either race you may as well gamble in the Gold Cup where even placing will mean something to the owner.
|
|
By:
He got beat 46 lengths the time they tried it,then won the Ryanair.
Its an absolute no brainer. |
|
By:
Why are people doubting his stamina just because he's won over 2m5f?
He also won a grade one over 3 miles at Chelters or am I imagining it? |
|
By:
yeh a novice race. He then got stuffed out of sight in the Gold Cup.
He has stamina just not enough for a gold cup,plus he aint good enough at that distance. He is at his best at 2 and half at the top level,he can finish a race well at that distance,and dont have to face the elite like Kauto etc. |
|
By:
I disagree buddeliea. When he ran in the GC he was a staying 8 lengths second to a top of his game Kauto in the King George the race before. I dont think it was solely the distance that beat AR. I think he is a horse that blows hot and cold and they got him just right for a few weeks last year to win two Grade 1s very close together. Had he ran in the Ryanair instead of the GC the year before I think he'd have ran equally poorly IMO.
If you time him right he's a horse that can run an amazing race at any trip IMO. It's just the timing that is key. On all his form this year he wont be running any sort of race whatever race he goes for. So if you are gambling anyway why not gamble at the biggest prize? |
|
By:
Well,as far as i am concerned,he needs good ground and the Ryanair distance to show his best form,3m at Chelt at the top level is stretching it,anything over not for me.
you make some fair points though,but i will stick to my opinion. |
|
By:
Connections are clutching at straws here.If they don't fancy him for the Ryanair as the horse is so out of form, he shouldnt even be running at Cheltenham. Won 2 grade 1's last year at 2 and a half miles and that is his trip at the top level.
I am amazed they are even considering the Gold Cup to be honest - bad management of the animal if he runs in my opinion |
|
By:
from what i remember they said the same thing last year about running in the gold cup and then turning up in ryanair. why go back to 3 miles when he won 2 grade 1's last year at the shorter trip....
|
|
By:
This will be terrible news for my bets as I have already took a chance on his well being for the Ryanair.
|
|
By:
I have him as one of my biggest winners.
With ante post betting we all know the risks involved-fair enough. But when a horse is chosen to run in a race he has been thrashed in,as opposed to a race he has won and at a distance where he shows his best form,well,that is just plain madness and bl00dy hard to take!! |
|
By:
Goretski, how can you say that the 2 races attract a totally different calibre of horses? Imperial Commander won both races and the Ryanair has grown into a top class race in its own right. I hope he goes for the Gold Cup as I've backed him this year after I took 33s for the Ryanair with Ladbrokes last year. The Gold Cup will cut up this year, the top horses haven't been running to their rating or haven't run for ages and the race is truely wide open. He won the Ryanair and the Aintree race by staying and he won't be stopping. His owner is a sportsman and he's got nothing to prove.
|
|
By:
While not for me you have to look at Alberta's best form and forget anything else he's done before assessing his chances. Had a bit of back trouble before the King George and because of that missed the Betfair.
Looking back on his career after winning the RSA he was aimed at the Gold Cup and while ran a stinker he wasn't exactly in the best from of his life. He had finished 2nd in the King George then lost badly to Madison Du Berlais, lost in the GC then ran another stinker at Punchestowns However that was along time ago and he came back the following season a much improved horse, won the Ryanair and topped that off by going to Aintree and winning again. The horse we saw last season was head and shoulder above the one who ran in the 2008 Gold Cup and if he turns up at Cheltenham who's to say he won't improve vastly on this 6th to Kauto Star. Jonjo is a lot of things but mad isn't one of them and I certainly wouldn't be as bold as underestimate him or any horse he sends to Cheltenham. There are too many doubts about too many of the runners to not run him. |
|
By:
Ron,
his best forms at 2m and a half,and the reason for his improved form is the distance which he is most comfortable with,it allows him to travel well and finish off his races.3m plus imo takes him out of his comfort zone. His race record backs this up,with the only real successes over further being against an average load of novices. |
|
By:
Race record over 3m or further since his novice days
1 Pulled up 2 8L defeat to KS 3 48L defeat to MDB 4 48L defeat to KS 5 22L defeat to MDB 6 Pulled Up 7 69L defeat to KS 8 Pulled up |
|
By:
Buddeleia, his overall record isn't one of consistency, he looked promising as a novice hurdler and novice chaser but has an average record on ground softer than good and away from the spring festivals. I thought his RSA Chase win took a bit out of him and he wasn't really the same horse for a while but was in superb form last year and is likely to run his race wherever he runs at Cheltenham. For my long range ante post bet, I'd like it to be in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, as I think it's a very open race.
|
|
By:
Is this for real? 2m5f at Cheltenham on good ground is the perfect distance for Albertas. A step up to Gold Cup trip would be absolutely crazy. He'd go from a good chance to a no hoper.
|
|
By:
it could be called an open race,but its only open to those that can stay the distance at Cheltenham,no evidence at all that says Albertas can,none at all,in fact it all points the other way.
Anyway, not much more i can do really. i have given my reasons,and showed form evidence. Gl. |
|
By:
Booster my comment was in relation to the RSA and gold cup. Both grade 1's yes but one is for novices at an earlier stage of their career and over a shorter distance. But gold cup cutting up this year? its one of the strongest for a long time.
|
|
By:
Buddeleia, the reason I'm disputing the form evidence, as you call it, is that he doesn't really show much form anywhere but Cheltenham in March where he has won an RSA Chase, which was 3 years ago and he should have got stronger in the meantime. He was 33-1 with Ladbrokes for the Ryanair Chase last year on the morning of the big Ascot Chase which Riverside Theatre won a couple of weeks ago as he doesn't show anything on softer ground.
Goretski, this is a really open Gold Cup with doubts over everything and nothing I'd want to back among the fancied horses, all of whom have major doubts about them. As I say, Imperial Commander won both races, I don't say Albertas Run is a cert but believe he'd have his chance in an open year. The Ryanair isn't a race for novices, it was won in its early years by improving handicappers with Cheltenham form but more recently has gone to Grade 1 horses. Poquelin was only 3rd last year but won a handicap off 163 in December. That points to it having been a top class race I'd say. |
|
By:
Im not debating over the Ryanair booster. Albertas looks likely too get some decent ground at cheltenham but imo Albertas has more doubts about him than the majority of this field. Running like a drain all season, took a pearler of a fall 2 starts back, won't stay in a gold cup of this calibre. I dont know what price you backed him at but it would want to be rather large.
|
|
By:
It was a large price obviously, as he's been unconsidered for the race and he has doubts like many others. All I was saying is he's got top class festival form and I don't think you can rule him out.....or Tidal Bay for that matter, although I've not backed him. The policy I've employed at Cheltenham for many years is to back horses with festival form who've not shown form or not been able to show form for some reason and, I've got to admit, you don't have to be right that often as there are some massive prices to be had during the winter. Like I said, he's no good thing.
|
|
By:
has he been confirmed by Jonjo for the gold cup, i cant find news anywhere of it, if he does go gold cup, another big antepost hit....
|
|
By:
I don't thnk he's been confirmed but he's nearly all blue on oddschecker.
|
|
By:
personally think he has a better chance in Ryanair but lets look at some facts
only 3 horses in the Gold Cup are officially higher rated than Albertas Run, Imperial Commander last years winner who has ran only twice since getting stuffed in Aintree and just holding the biggest rogue in training Tidal Bay on only run this season before getting injured a cut that was only degrees away from being a career threatener, Kauto Star an 11yo french bred who has only won a minor race in Down Royal since he was a 9yo and at a course he has always excelled was stuffed to the point of bursting a blood vessel last time out, and Denman who is also a 11yo he hasn't won any race since he was 9yo and lost 7 out of last 8 runs, why when the horse has already won a Sun Alliance and a Ryanair should they not have a crack at the Gold Cup under these circumstances, the last time they tried the Gold Cup they were heavily beaten but the horse showed nothing at all in the 08-09 season , again he is not showing much this season but i am of the view if the horse is not in form it will be equally stuffed in the Ryanair and there is no reason not to give the Gold Cup another shot. |
|
By:
Couldn't have put it better myself (as my earlier posts prove).
|
|
By:
@buddeliea I wouldn't be overly concerned about the trip. He certainly never looked like a horse who was stopping in the RSA and now he's a bit older he should get 3 miles plus. As I said he's got every right to go for the race and he wouldn't be the first outsider with no chance to win the race.
You have to consider who owns the horse and he won't lose much sleep about missing the Ryanair. I think in his position we'd all want to have a crack. Hope Dougie Costello gets the mount if AP isn't available |
|
By:
Thanks so far guys this is a really good debate. We get lots of crap on these forums but this shows the good side of users.
|