Cheltenham Festival
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03 Mar 11
10:16
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Date Joined:
03 Mar 11
Just looking at the bare statistics of 10 year old + horses winning the Gold Cup could lead you to believe that there will be a new winner this year.
Could anyone tell me the last time a Gold Cup was run where 3 of the horses thatfall into the 'too old to win' bracket had actually won the Gold Cup previously.
I don't think this has happened before and therefore I am prepared to overlook the trend this time round.
Could anyone tell me the last time a Gold Cup was run where 3 of the horses thatfall into the 'too old to win' bracket had actually won the Gold Cup previously.
I don't think this has happened before and therefore I am prepared to overlook the trend this time round.
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Replies: 10
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Similar sort of question.:
One trend is "winner aged 7-9". Another is "6-12 chase runs". How many runners have there been in the last 10-15 years who were 10+ but had run fewer than 13 chases? |
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Most of the horses 10 or older had no chance based on their form that season. Also so many of the older houses are taken care of and lightly raced these days. Then we have the facts that kauto and denman are already breaking trends and records. While IC is very lightly raced.
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Thought there might be a better response to this given the amount of times I have seen the trend bandied about.
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I agree, its a long time since there were 11 year olds of this calibre running in a gold cup. I too would be overlooking that trend this time around
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CVB, agree that IC is well looked after by NTD so he could buck the 10-y-o trend, but Kauto and Denman failed that test last year. Why would they do better as 11-y-olds? Bar retirement, they've nowhere left to go except the Gold Cup, so should they be priced up on their great achievements of the past? Top class NH racing is just too attritional for longevity
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Trend shmend
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kaycee - nice post, the stat broke what was labelled a two horse race.
I just want to point out another age trend here and that was Masterminded winning the QM as a 5yo (jaw dropping performance). If a horse is exceptional it can buck a trend, you also have to consider the opponents. Another trend is that 9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 166+.... the field gets thin (only Diamond Harry) if we pit these two trends together. |
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Are you the same Ming The Merciless that just got elected to Dail Eireann (Irish Parliament) under his real name Luke 'Ming' Flanagan? He is an independent who campaigned on a legalise dope/save our hospital platform. Or is that just a coincidence?
On the trend. Yes, they're never cast iron, but looking at the way horses like Denman win races - by outright pummelling his opponents - it's bound to suck the life force out of them bit by bit and diminish their once exceptional talents. Anyway good luck with the politicking |
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LOL - all my ante-post bets were paid for on expenses!
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You'll have to pour all your winnings into the state coffers...we need every cent we can get
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