Cheltenham Festival
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why the drift? The aim is clear, been trading around 12s for a couple of weeks, someone lays up a fair amount- back into 18 which is value imo....
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Alex.The aim is clear.What race?There is no drift on this,in the Albert B.
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"We've got him in the Albert Bartlett and that surely has to be his aim now," Hobbs told At The Races.
It was trading around 12/14, now up 4/5points and has been matched upto 23ish recently although back in now. Hobbs thought a handicap mark of 142 was too high to target any of them. |
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That is good news.I am confident this can at least place.
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I have read a couple of lengthy forum threads on the Albert Bartlett recently. Hardly any mention of Kilcrea Kim as a likely contender. Plenty of other names being thrown into the hat for this race. So possibly the horse is being a bit overlooked and not attracting as much interest from punters as some of the other horses in the list. That may partly explain why the price has held up at what looks decent value around 14/15. And, in that context, perhaps the tick up to 18 not necessarily an indication of anything wrong in a market that is not attracting many bets at the moment by comparison with some of the other novice races at the Festival. It does look a fair bit bigger price than you might expect him to be though.
I like the horse very much and have been following him for a while. His experience in good handicap company should be an asset if returning to novice company. His last two runs were pretty demanding, so I hope that hasn't taken the edge off him for Cheltenham. |
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thanks aka- not 100% sure he will get the trip as its a real slog, but im on at 34 so got a nice trade out of it. Hoping to lay at about 10s on the day so im guessing i could go in again now for 8points
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Weekender yesterday - Hobbs Trainer File
"Off his mark of 142 he will go down the handicap route and will be left in the Pertemps and Albert Bartlett" |
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Hi, Alex. I think he might settle better than some of them if he goes the novice route at the Festival, which could help him see the trip out well. When he won at Sandown last time over 22 furlongs, the RP description that 'he pulled out more near the finish', I found reassuring in terms of his stamina and the fact that Sandown is a fairly stiff track. The topspeed rating he achieved for that race was 138, suggesting it was a reasonably true run race. It is always good to see a horse achieving a TS rating close to his OR rating. So often you get horses with inflated OR ratings that have never raced off a tempo strong enough to merit a TS rating higher than the low 100s. Understandable that these horses are often among the ones that get found out at the festivals.
When he finished fifth behind Ashkazar at Cheltenham going over three miles for the first time, I did wonder about just how well he saw out the trip. Like you, I am still querying that a bit. But for a novice first time up at 24f at a stiff track in open handicap company against some pretty decent older horses, I felt he did just about enough to convince me he would cope pretty well with the trip in novice company at least. The winning time for that race was fairly good as well, with Ashkazar achieving a TS of 133, which is one of the higher TS ratings for the season in the open stayers hurdle division. |
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Also, KK hasn't got an entry for the Coral, which might have been an option if the stable had significant reservations about him getting the longer trip.
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that is true, although trainers arent always right and i have my reservations (especially around cheltenham) hence wanting to lay off some of my bet... now the trainer has changed his mind, previously stating 142 was too high a handicap mark. hmmmm
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It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If they go for the Pertemps, it is likely he will be facing some of those who finished in front of him at Cheltenham in January, but on worse terms. Possibly a vote of confidence in the horse in that respect if they do decide to go this route. At the same time, if he is capable of running much above his current OR mark of 142, in most years that ought to be enough to win or go very close in the Albert Bartlett. It would certainly put him in the same league as a horse like Berties Dream from last season.
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