Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I know plenty has been spoken about Dunguib in last years supreme, the ride he got and how he should have won etc etc but it's my belief that one of the main contributory factors as to why he finished where he did was he was, not entirely the ride he got and how wide he was but infact was a little outpaced at a crucial stage in the race, and while others were quicking he simply couldn't or at least not to the extent of the horses that finished in front of him were.
I reckon Cue Card this time around is a case of deja-vu waiting to happen all over again. A strong traveller, he can be at times, wonderfully accurate over his hurdles but is also capable of throwing in a poor one aswell. But its at the business end of the race that might find this lad out. In the bula this lad tanked into the straight and had Menorah off the bridle and dickie niggling behind him but if you watch closely Joe gives him a slap, a tap down the neck and a shake of the reigns and asks Cue Card to quicken and go on but imo opinion he doesn't were as Menorah quickens up from off the bridle and goes by Cue Card like he was standing still and puts daylight fairly rapidly between himself and Cue Card.
Now you can argue that this was last seasons Supreme winner and 3rd or fourth favourite for this years champion but its not that catches my eye, it's the fact he doesn't quicken away from Clerk's Choice or Silvianco Conti the way he looked he would only a furlong before.
This horse started out at 20 furlongs over timber and as a rule bumper winners want further than the bare minimum, I'm not saying that this lad is one of them but i have a suspicion he may just get done for a bit of toe when they really start to quicken and there might something a little pacier in the race than he is.
I reckon Cue Card this time around is a case of deja-vu waiting to happen all over again. A strong traveller, he can be at times, wonderfully accurate over his hurdles but is also capable of throwing in a poor one aswell. But its at the business end of the race that might find this lad out. In the bula this lad tanked into the straight and had Menorah off the bridle and dickie niggling behind him but if you watch closely Joe gives him a slap, a tap down the neck and a shake of the reigns and asks Cue Card to quicken and go on but imo opinion he doesn't were as Menorah quickens up from off the bridle and goes by Cue Card like he was standing still and puts daylight fairly rapidly between himself and Cue Card.
Now you can argue that this was last seasons Supreme winner and 3rd or fourth favourite for this years champion but its not that catches my eye, it's the fact he doesn't quicken away from Clerk's Choice or Silvianco Conti the way he looked he would only a furlong before.
This horse started out at 20 furlongs over timber and as a rule bumper winners want further than the bare minimum, I'm not saying that this lad is one of them but i have a suspicion he may just get done for a bit of toe when they really start to quicken and there might something a little pacier in the race than he is.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 12
|
By:
like dunguib, paddy power are going after him
|
|
By:
Good post Goretski.
Cue Card is a very worthy favourite and is definitely the one to beat. What else in the race has the ability to quicken off a fast pace? Spirit Son - related to a number of jump winners at around 2 miles and middle distance on the flat. Will he be as effective on the probable quicker ground? Sprinter Sacre - bred to be a stayer and related to stayers. He must be a freak, for he is the most hyped horse in the Henderson yard for years and apparently works like a high class 2 miler. Great mover and quicker ground won't be a problem but will he run? Recession Proof - progressive over hurdles and battle hardened from the flat. Decent middle distance handicapper. Ticks a lot of the right boxes but did he leave his race in the locker at Newbury? Zaidpour - bred to be a high class middle distance flat horse by the Aga Khan but sold when it was apparent that he wasn't one. Will probably improve significantly for the better ground and the Irish have a great recent record in this race. Lot of ifs and buts. Most likely winner for me other than Cue Card is Zaidpour. I bought into the Sprinter Sacre hype in the autumn last year and he could be anything but I don't think he'll run if Geraghty elects to ride Spirit Son. Clear as mud, isn't it?  |
|
By:
Bookmaker targets first favourite at Cheltenham, breaking news.
This has nothing whatsoever to do with Cue Card, it is just a ploy by PP to attract money they know if the succeed will keep with them through the week. The Supreme Cue Card. Excellent form, always lined up for this, always favourite for obvious reasons. Love the trip, love the ground, Festival winner. Top class. Spirit Son. Well placed by NH to win mickey mouse races. Could be anything, could be nothing. Only just won a listed race in France for horses that had never run before. A poor race at Huntingdon and beat 1 horse at Exeter. TOOOOOO Short. Sprinter Sacre. NHF form not within 100 miles of CC. The only horse with any form he has met (Frascati Park) beat him. Another well placed in poor races by NH. TOOOOOO short. Recession Proof. Solid horse but this is a step up in class even in the trainer's opinion. May make a place. Zaidpour. Even the trainer isn't sure where to run it. Not running in the Neptune because So Young runs in that. Looked good against poor opposition (see Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre) but easily beaten against quality opponents. Cannot win on known form. Leap of faith needed. Hidden Universe. Cannot beat the favourite on NHF form. So Young. Not likely to run. Al Ferof. See Hidden Universe. Day of a Lifetime. Mullin 2nd string, cannot beat CC on NHF form Gibb River. Like SS and SS won mickey mouse races. 3rd string at best. There may be an outsider lurking in the dense undergrowth to rescue the bookmakers but I can see no other winner than Cue Card. Had NH not placed his horses so wisely to win several poor races this favourite would be a lot shorter. Best form, everything in its favour and a very good price. |
|
By:
Well who's going to beat him then,please.
|
|
By:
That old bookies favourite 'bad luck in running' is the only thing that can beat him.
|
|
By:
Lads lads lads, backing horses at skinny prices in a race full of unknown novices is a shortcut to the poorhouse. I have pointed out already what may beat him.
|
|
By:
Gor, the quickest way to the poor-house is to back losers.
Many more losers come from 'unknown quatities' than comes from the 'best form' horses. Stick with the horses with the best form and you will be a winner. |
|
By:
infact was a little outpaced at a crucial stage in the race, and while others were quicking he simply couldn't or at least not to the extent of the horses that finished in front of him were.
What stage of the race was this exactly?  I seen Dunguib actually making several lengths up on the two leaders after the second last, and continued to make ground after the last. It was a shocking ride which beat him. Nothing else. |
|
By:
Bhudda just before the second last Dunguib jumped the flight roughly 2 lengths off the leaders and not long after the flight he was 5 or so lengths behind while Menorah and Get Me Out Of Here were quickening off the front end. Ok granted Dunguib was wider than most and yes he does stay on up the hill (which is my point) but you could have ran that race for another 100 yards and Dunguib still wouldn't have caught either of the two in front of him.
Question, replace O Connell with Ruby, McCoy or Geragthy with the exact same ride, is it still shocking? imo the jockey followed the orders he was given, the horse just wasn't good enough on the day. |
|
By:
Cue cards no world beater and is way too short.
The worst value though is 5/2 TIME FOR RUPERT in what looks a highly competitive RSA. Competitive big field chases around cheltenham involve a lot of luck.He looks a place lay to me. |
|
By:
CC is the most likely winner and worthy fave.
We are now reaching the second symptom in festival fever where we knock every favourite/hot thing - that is after hyping them up for the last 4 months.  |
|
By:
Last season there were 4 bankers. Dunguib, Quevega, Big Bucks and Kauto Star.
I think there are 4 bankers this time. Cue Card, Quevega, Time for Rupert and Big Bucks. I only use bankers as savers. I like to have a real go at a couple of longer priced horses. We will see. |