Cheltenham Festival
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01 Mar 11
23:45
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30 Mar 08
When it comes to the 2 mile chase department quick slick jumping is everything. One thing that strikes me looking back at the last 10 renewals of the Arkle is that Paul Nicholls' horse don't have a great record, especially when it comes to actually finishing the track. Is it possible that a trainer can actually teach a horse to jump at such a low and quick level that is OK in small fields but is liable to disaster in the big field that the Arkle usually welcomes when put under pressure.
In the last 10 renewals, Nicholls has had 15 runners of which 5 have hit the deck, who I believe never had before.
Delving a little deeper and this is probably far fetched but you'd probably say that his best fancied runners have been those who have shown the slickest jumping so far rather than those that have been economical or made bad mistakes/fallen and learnt their lesson.
Excluding his outsiders (those who started at 20/1 or bigger) his form in the last 10 runnings is F3F5F1F3U. So that's 5 falls/unseats from 10 runners. These 5 were Tatenen (4/1f), Twist Magic (12/1), Thisthatandtother (5/2f), Le Roi Miguel (11/1) and Fadalko (12/1). All of these had never fallen before and looked assured jumpers.
So is this a possible question mark against Ghizao? Probably not as it is likely just to be a coincidence with such a small sample size but I'd say it's something to ponder (even if just briefly).
EC
In the last 10 renewals, Nicholls has had 15 runners of which 5 have hit the deck, who I believe never had before.
Delving a little deeper and this is probably far fetched but you'd probably say that his best fancied runners have been those who have shown the slickest jumping so far rather than those that have been economical or made bad mistakes/fallen and learnt their lesson.
Excluding his outsiders (those who started at 20/1 or bigger) his form in the last 10 runnings is F3F5F1F3U. So that's 5 falls/unseats from 10 runners. These 5 were Tatenen (4/1f), Twist Magic (12/1), Thisthatandtother (5/2f), Le Roi Miguel (11/1) and Fadalko (12/1). All of these had never fallen before and looked assured jumpers.
So is this a possible question mark against Ghizao? Probably not as it is likely just to be a coincidence with such a small sample size but I'd say it's something to ponder (even if just briefly).
EC
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EC, I was considering this last week. But then I thought it cant be a Nicholls thing, as there is stacks of horses who have fallen in the Arkl, whether it is their first time or not. The race in which Twist Magic fell, Dont Push It also took a tumble, at the same fence iirc. This left My Way De Solzen in the lead.
Horses falling for the first time is probably a regular thing, as the Arkle is the ulttimate test. I suspect we will see one this year, unfortunately. I really wouldn't be surprised to see Finians hit the deck but obviously hope he doesnt! Ghizao looks a better jumper to me aswell compared to some of those others you mention. If they get over the first few fences they are usually OK. Tatenen hit the deck at the first! |
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interesting read. wide or better again towards the front is the place to be
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Very interesting. I'm sure the trainer would say he's had plenty of bad luck in the race, but I like the fact you've taken a thought that's occurred to you and had a look back to see if it stands up...
Can't understand why more people haven't weighed in with their thoughts (especially given Andy Stewart's comments about Ghizao not being good enough in a normal year). If it continues to elude the wider forum readership, I will periodically post a sentence just to get it back near the top. |
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Am absolutely staggered at the price of Ghizao! I know despite what Andy Stewart says that there is plenty of stable confidence, why people are climbing on the bandwagon of the other two at the head of the market is beyond me. Medermit on the book has it all to do and I can't say he was over impressive at sandown. As for Finnians I watched with interest at Warwick and was surprised how poorly he jumped and by Arkle standards they were just dawdling along so how he's going to fare during a proper test is anyone's guess. Ghizao has the best form looks the best jumper has form at the track and has been kept fresh, only slight negative is if Ruby doesn't ride, I am a fan of Timmy Murphy but not sure he rides Chelt as well as Ruby.
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In defence of Finnians, Henderson has since said that Tinkler was intructed to keep him tucked in behind to help educate him, as in his previous runs / wins he'd never seen an opponent. Therefore, the horse won despite the tactics he clearly didn't enjoy and won't be ridden like that again.
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It might be interesting to look at the record of horses that have raced (in chases) only in Ireland prior to taking on the Arkle in terms of how many avoid falling in the race. Nature of the fences in Ireland, together with the often deeper ground and slower pace of many novice chases there, possibly gives more encouragement to safe/economical jumping over the lower, slicker approach.
All the same, whether they jump big or low, the faster pace on usually better ground can catch out any novice in the Arkle. Lack of prior experience jumping in a larger field and at a reasonable pace (particularly early pace), is a particular concern. |
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Has there been a suggestion that Murphy wont keep the ride ? I dont see why he should be jocked off, sounds like nonsense. I could envisage a Chapoturgeon type ride by Timmy which will suit very well.
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