Cheltenham Festival
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01 Mar 11
23:04
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Date Joined:
03 Feb 11
Can anyone pick a fault with this horse, he does seem to have been somewhat overlooked, win record is excellent, form looks more than decent, has to still be improving and has been backed each time its ran to show stable confidence, the only blemish in his lifetime is the Henessey and there was excuses for that race.
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Replies: 39
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well youve answered your own question. the fact hes been over to England once and couldnt handle it is a fault you could pick, that and the fact he would prefer soft ground.
So there are two ?? that you would have your doubts about. But 20/1 imo is decent value. |
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Fair point but there was excuses for the Newbury run and im not sure he needs real soft ground, I cannot see good to soft posing any problem as for good ground well who knows on that but thats not to say he cant go on that either as you say 20-1 for a totally unexposed horse in this years race still rates more value than most
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I personally think he is the best of the young generation, but the handling of the ground and the pressure on his jumping in a championship race, is thee big worry for me.
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forgotten horse to some degree and was a lot shorter before slight injury scare.Think he got very good chance and Ive had saver on him.
Nice to hear trainer bullish on eve of running but aint they all . |
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He was badly hampered early in the Hennessy and never had a chance afterwards, so I'd completely ignore that run. 20s definitely seems overpriced to me, but Meade has always said he needs soft ground, which a lot of the principals would also prefer.
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Yeah the soft ground is a worry but the price is good value. I'm on Pandorama and Kempes and I think that will be it for me. Could maybe back one of the main 4 (not Long Run)on the day but the only way I can see me doing this if it's truely good ground I can see me backing Kauto or if it's properly soft maybe Denman.
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Stafford watch the hennessey again he was badly hampered but jumpedreally badly before then and seemed to be Ill at ease with pace and hustle of race before being hampered.
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i think his chances are improving by the day. stats are against the older horses even tho some are a little hard to believe but still. hes also got a touch off class about him whereas the likes of mon mome who finished third and carruthers who finished 4th i think havent. i dont think it would be a major shock to see him on the premises and going well at the top of the hill
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was at cheltenham preview night with p carberry
he reckons realt dubh is his best chance of a winner got impression pandorama wont run unless ground is at least good to soft!,if its soft ground i reckon he'll nearly win gold cup,but am afraid ground wont be soft enough & they wont even chance him. fwiw my dad knows owner of pandorama,i'll get him to ask him this/nxt weekend what the "scoop" is, but like i said the impression from carberry is they dont think he'll be travelling over to cheltenham |
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thats odd, as Meade seemed quite keen for him to take his chance.
Jungle anything else of interest at the preview night mate? |
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hi wakey,
gordon elliot also feels if ground turns soft pandorama has great chance in gold cup i'll be @ another preview next week & I'll post then Paul carberry, thinks realt Dubh great bet ew @ 9/1 thinks peak reader has great ew chance in johnny henderson @ 14/1,horse has deliberately not run over fences to protect mark thinks pandorama needs at least good to soft!got impression if ground got soft there would be serious confidence behind pandorama his nap of meeting is cue card Robbie "puppy" Power Oscar wells his banker,reckons he'll improve loads with good ground. gave cork all star a good metion in the foxhunters he heard geraghty likes sprinter sacre reckons irish 4 year olds not up to much wasnt gone on long run,reckons he runs bad everytime at cheltenham thinks boston angels a real tough horse,will ratlle time for rupert,has ew chance @ 16/1 in his opinion Gordon Elliot Dirar has ew chance in county reckons he'll have a good few entered in martin pipe conditional. chicago grey has a great chance,derek o connor rides jessies dream will put it up to time for rupert plan a would have a chance with carberry off 125 in fred winter his nap was junior ew @ 20/1 kim muir Kevin Oryan likes allure of illusion in bumper,it & Lord Gayle are suposed to be willies best 2 horses for numper his charity bet was 100 ew on china rock 66/1(carberry said china took a good blow after irish hennessey,so wasnt fully revved up for it) gary oBroen nap was medermit paul ryan PP nap is cork all star will from ATR liked noble prince All the panel worried about grand crus not settling,they reckon he'll use too much petrol trying to settle everyone seemed to have a different tip for champion hurdle,puppy liked peddlers cross alot panel seem to think zaidpour is going in wrong direction,won a poor royal bond no-one seemed to fancy diamond harry for gold cup panel felt time for rupert will be alot shorter on day puppy got impression henderson camp wasnt overly impressed with finians rainbow,they were well disappointed riverside theatre seemed very popular with panel @ 7/1 panel feel bobs worth might run in albert bartlett.. |
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Jungle thanks a lot mate great article
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^^^^^^Great reply Jungle
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'Long-range festival forecast predicts snow'
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival-john-kettley-simon-claisse-long-range-forecast-predicts-snow-for-eve-of-cheltenham/826217/top/ Bring it on! A Desert Orchidesque Gold Cup would suit Pando down to the ground. |
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Robert Bagnall the owner of pandorama was going around the offices in Mullingar last Fri backing his horse ew just before Meade broke the news of the horses spin around Leopardstown that morn
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Must admit I never paid very much attention to Pandorama last season. The fact he never ran at Cheltenham had a lot to do with that.
The fact he had been fancied for the Hennessy caught my eye so I had a long look at him prior to winning the Lexus. For me without a shadow of a doubt he put up the best Gold Cup trial either side of the water this season. I suppose most would argue and say Long Run's win in the King George was better but personally I thought the Lexus was more of a real test similar to what you can expect in a Gold Cup. The opposition in the Lexus although not up to Gold Cup standards was decent. It wasn't so much what he beat but the way he beat them. Always traveling well he showed a more than decent turn of foot to be exactly where his pilot wanted to be turning for home and just as importantly stayed on strongly to ensure the result was never in doubt. I was so impressed by him I immediately though Gold Cup and couldn't believe the bookies were still offering 20/1 and 25/1 about him. Pandorama just doesn't seem to me to be the type of horse who MUST have soft ground. No doubt he has a liking for it but Cheltenham more often than not has some cut in the ground. That combined with the need for stamina should more than compensate and I can't see him not running really well unless there's a complete drought and the run out of water. There's much more to Pandorama than just a horse who slogs it through the mud he has class and youth on his side and there will be a lot more finish behind him than in front of him. In the last 3 Gold Cups the toughest part of the race comes when Denman takes off on the second circuit. You need to be able to stay with him when he does and then it's all down to whether you can quicken past him. There's little doubt in my mind Pandorama can quicken as we saw in the Lexus. as can Kauto Star and Imperial Commander but if it comes down to which horse will stay on best up the hill then that's where I think Pandorama can outdo them all. Much depends on which Kauto Star turns up because if he travels well and quickens like he can then all bets are off and I want my money back  Hard to accept Kauto has gone but how can you back him with any confidence. I have had a saver on him but Pandorama is my main hope. I think they have made a huge mistake not giving Imperial Commander a run in between Haydock and Cheltenham. He was being caught by Tidal Bay after his summer break in the dying stages and he'll have to find a lot more to fend off his Gold Cup rivals, who wont be giving him a fence of a start. |
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hes going to be a war of attrition or a beef or salmon! at 20/1 im happy to take the chance hes a war of attrition acts at cheltenham and scoots up making the odds look absurd considering his strike rate in G1s!
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odds are huge. i've been looking at the race using my head rather than my heart and tbh i would be surprised if Long Run or Pandorama don't win it. they both have perfect profiles and i'm leaning towards pandorama
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Pandobeast will win the Gold Cup, excellent value.
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Lay please, WILL NOT win this race.
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Think the Irish challenge this year has been hugely under-estimated.
Am with both Kempes and Pandorama e/w NRNB as ground conditions will play a part. Only negative with Pandorama is N Meade this side of the water |
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Rondetto, personally I thought Denman ran the best trial of any of the gold cup contenders this season.
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I think too much is made about the ground with Pandorama. The fact is, more often than not in Ireland the ground is soft/heavy, and that's where he has done all of his racing, bar one. He has won on yielding and good to yielding before, there's nothing to suggest he needs it, just that he handles it imv.
The big ponderable is his abiliy to handle the course, and we won't know that until the day, but he is by Fleminsfirth and his offspring have an excellent festival record. The trainers festival record is not great, but this race has been the plan for three years now and he'll be doing everything he can for Pandorama. I think he has a very solid chance in the GC and the current 14/1 is good value imv. |
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his ability to handle the trip across the water is also an imponderable based on the limited evidence to date surely?
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?? He travelled over fine for the Hennessy. In the race he put in a bad jump and was then badly hampered by fallen horses and that was that. Horse was saved for the Lexus no point going after a lost cause with a horse you know is that good.
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He jumped poorly before being hampered - was hampered because he was in rear - would n't write off a horse on the basis of one bad run and he was good in the Lexus - defeats me how anybody could see that race as best trial for Gold Cup given likelihood that ground was poles apart from what it will be in Cheltenham and the fact that he beat Money Trix (rip) by 6 lengths.
There could be other factors which led to his poor run in the Hennessy - was withdrawn from the race in Ireland with the blood trickle from nose a couple of weeks, maybe he was overfaced by a big field handicap. Don't see how you can be so definitive that the travelling did n't have an impact - I'm not saying that it did, by the way, just that it might have done. I think it's just as valid to put up his performance at Newbury as negative evidence as it is to put up his Lexus effort as positive evidence. Why would it not be? |
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You have to write the hennessey run off. it was over after 2 fences from what i remember far too quick to judge him on anything. I was absolutely balls deep on this horse at newbury. for it to be over so quickly was bloody awful! he was a nice price in the Lexus so I got it back tho. I still can't get over it. would have/should have made my season!? Hopefully he does it at Chelts!
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Can I write Weird Al's Hennessy run off as well,then?'[;)]
Just speculating about underlying reasons as to why it happened? Interesting (though probably coincidental) that first two in the Hennessy are out for the season - it's a demanding race so Pandorama's effort could even be a blessing in disguise. |
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Denman's about the only horse to get through the Hennessy in front and survive into his dotage.
It's a brutal race for one reason or other, just go through the past winners. A who's who of unfulfilled potential. |
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I wouldn't pay too much attention to what Robert Bagnall (Owner) says about Pandorama. I know he's been very sweet on this horse since he won his bumper in Fairyhouse in 2008, but he hypes up every single horse he owns. I've lost a fair bit of money on his horses (namely Rochfortbridge and Hilimar Hotel) when Bagnall told me that they would win easily. He actually told me one time that he would sell all his horses if Rochfortbridge didn't win a beginner's chase in Fairyhouse. Unsurprisingly he didn't win, and Bagnall wasn't true to his word.
For what its worth though, i've had an each way bet on Pandorama. I think he's still improving and is still a decent bet at 14/1. I was at Leopardstown for his Lexus win and thought he was very impressive. I am slightly worried about his preference for soft ground, but its very encouraging to hear bullish noises coming from Noel Meade, who's not normally one for overhyping his horses. If he can get into rhythm early on in the Gold Cup, i can definitely see him making the frame |
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Loads of irish horses travel over to England all the time. It's rare that one doesn't travel over well. So I ignore it as a factor until a trainer says it's a problem. Also his lexus run was effectively his first run in a year, he is entitled to improve on it. I've always thought the horse was exceptional and he will be a major that next year and could be a threat this year. Meade said he's not looking for heavy ground or anything, just some juice in it, good to soft would be fine. Questions over every horse in this race, it's an open renewal.
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yo
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CVB Didn't Meade say way back he would only run if it came up soft? Maybe he read my post and changed his mind
I'm not so sure he needs another year he seems very mature to me. As I've said before presuming Kauto has gone I think he's major player this season and the only way he's so big is all this hullabaloo about the ground is preventing people from backing him. Unless of course you are stone mad like me and think you know it all[:p] I wish!!! |
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Positives
Class, potential, stays , rain forecast for the Friday. Negatives Experience of jumping at pace in a Gold Cup! |
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I have said many times that trainers who want a bit of soft in the ground always say he won't run if it's good ground. This is simply to put pressure on claisse to water and make sure it's a bit soft.
Meade said on sunday he doesn't want heavy or anything just a bit of soft in the going to run him. He'll defo run, the owner said that at a preview night over here last week. Rain forecast means it won't be quick on the friday. |
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Also who is the last horse to win the gold cup who didn't run in the king george or lexus?
That stat means it's between Kauto, Long Run, Pandorama and Kempes. |
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Will run if GS or softer.
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Aye which it will be.
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There is some rain forecast at the end of this week, and a few showers next week, gnd should be proper GS.
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