Andy Stewart ''Ghizao is not good enough''

Deary me, Starluck's engine isnt in question, is it?....his ability not to break his neck in an Arkle on 2nd chase start is the issue.

Stewart sais the same about celestial halo before last years champion huddle saying he's not good enough

interesting comment from the owner isnt it.

price ramp for co-owner David Johnson can lump on on the day imo

That's NH racing Duncan. No-one knows when or if a horse will fall. One Man won the QMCC then fell at Aintree.
THat is not for me to decide. I am quite prepared to let the trainer and owner decide that. I am only talking about the form lines. No moral high ground here.
Didn't Twist Magic or/and Tatiano fall in the Arkle early on.
The one good thing on Starluck's side is that they can sit in behind and jump him round at his own pace. He doesn't need to be up there in the thick of things. Then, if he's good enough put him into the race.
Ghizao looks a good jumper but I'm not certain Medermit or Finian's are great at it yet.

I'm still surprised (almost baffled) at how little attention Realt Dubh seems to be getting in all the antepost analysis - the world and his wife think it is a weak Arkle so a dual Grade 1 winner who has a great jockey (imo), travels sweetly, jumps well and battles ok should surely be vying for favouritism, yet is still in double figures

I don't think there's anyway of knowing how strong this year's Arkle is until next season.

It would of been easy to think last year's was rock solid, but what from that line up has actually gone on to achieve anything!?

Sizing Europe, Somersby and Osana (the first three home)have failed to win a race all season between them, and despite his current market position, I can't see Somersby have too great an impact on this years Champion Chase, unless the race were to fall apart!

As I commented on another thread, I think the two mile chasing division is among the poorest in all racing, and I for one hope Finians Rainbow wins this year's Arkle, as I think he's the only horse of the big three that will remain campaigned at the trip. Medermit and Ghizao will both step up to two and a half miles, and I suspect only run in next year's Champion Chase if they're found not to stay the trip at Grade 1 level.

Starluck is not wining an arkle and people need to keep the starluck nonsense in the relevant thread so the rest of us can ignore and avoid it.

^^^Ouch. What is this thread about then CVB? Why do,'t you tell those who selected Rhealt Dhub and Finian's Rainbow?
All points are relevent. I never brought up Celestial Halo someone else did.
Permission to talk about another horse, Sir?

Celestial halo is a stewart horse, a horse he said wasn't good enough to win the champion hurdle last year. Very relevant.

We don't need another thread taken over by the starluck madness do we?

...or another thread taken over by people rowing with CVByrne; there's plenty of them!!

Wrong CVB, the comment was about CH being their Arkle horse, obviously based on his hurdling ability. Not the later comment. Selective reading?
Why didn't the thread read 'without Starluck'.
I never knew this forum was limited to horses you prefer. My mistake.
But it is about the Arkle isn't it?
If you read my initial point it was very relevent to this thread. I never took it further, someone else did.

It's a forum CVB.

CVByrne

When: 26 Jan 11 16:18

Date Joined: 14 Mar 06

I normally love the arkle but with flat out  injured and realt dubh not getting the  excitement levels going at all. Finian's Rainbow too short based on his chase form. Ghizao madness short based on beating nothing. Cristal Bonus staying hurdling, Mikael probably going for rsa. I mean this is the most uninteresting arkle in memory.

Everything comes into the mix CVB.

Fine brigust have this thread too. Just trying to contain discussions to relevant threads otherwise the same arguments spread through the forum.

Though this is betfair forums....

It was only a comment CV. Like yours above but not as accurate. I had no intention of carrying it forward. Just reminding those reading. As if they needed reminding.
If he did run though, and it is a big if, he would be the most talked about and most watched horse in the race. In my opinion of course.

Never fancied this horse for the race (as my other posts record), doubtful he's going to be good enough, but he has lots going for him - track form, terrific jumping, terrific campaign behind him.

Strange comments IMO.

I think he will win it.

Is this love in with Starluck still going on? He may not run and even if he does he wont win it, more likely not to finish the race imo.

I Forgot what i came on to say now!

Was looking through this race lastnight and was starting to think ghizao had a big chance and then i come on this morning and read these comments from the owner!

HEAD ****K!!

Look Gor, I only mentioned because of what Andy Stewart said. I didn't ask others to attack me. And I thought it was relevent in the context of what he said. I may be wrong but there you are.

No hassle brigust, doesnt bother me what you talk about but just remember Starluck hasn't a prayer me old mucker [;)]

Medermit is looking more nailed on for this by the hour. Stewarts comments are interesting and tied in with Nick Williams honesty re Diamond Harry are a refreshing riposte to much of the bullish,
Ballydoyle-esque, BS a lot of trainers and owners do be coming out with this time of year.

just saying what everyone knows and its good to see the mans not bias he was a cr ap hurdler and will be  adreadful winner FINIANAS RAINBOW the one

I dont think you could label him a crap hurdler Alvarado, has one or two bits of decent form over the smaller obstacles.

Ghizao
He's vying for favouritism for the Arkle. A lovely big scopey horse who was always going to be better over fences than he was over hurdles. We had a few problems with his breathing last year and we couldn't work out whether he wanted a trip or not. However once we sorted out his breathing we knew we had a good horse. He was nowhere near ready when he was second at Cheltenham - I rushed him a bit. I knew he'd improve tons for that and he won very nicely at the Paddy Power meeting. We then gave 10lbs to Captain Chris at Newbury and beat him on ground that didn't suit - he doesn't want it really testing. He went very well yesterday in a racecourse gallop and he looks fab ahead of the Arkle. He's got loads of speed, loves the track and although he's flat-bred, he has the size and scope to keep on improving. Touch wood he jumps great and I think he's got an outstanding chance in the Arkle. I wouldn't swap him and Aiteen Thirtythree for anything.

Trainers view Vs the owners view. Miles apart.

Nicholls also saying testing ground not suitable. Mmm.

Ghizao has a massive chance in the Arkle no matter what Andy Stewart says.

He has the best form in the book, and imo should be fav.  These comments wouldn't stop me backing him at all - I bet on what my opinions are, not the owners.  OK, he wasn't the best hurdler in the field, but imo he is the best chaser, and unless the rules have changed in the last few weeks, this is a chase.

which form of ghizaos is the best in the book?

I'd say his 10 length win over Captain Chris in November on Good to Soft over 2m at Cheltenham is pretty strong!

yep,good run,but is that the best??

imo it is Bud.

I geniunely don't understand why he isn't fav, and I think that's been the best 2m performance this year.  Medermit hasn't really got any stand out form over 2m over fences.

I really respect Finians Rainbow and his smashing of Hells Bay must surely also put him ahead of Medermit as well.  I just like Ghizao because Nicholls obviously must be happy with his jumping because he hasn't bothered to send him to Mickey Mouse chases for experience.

Realt Dubh has to have a chance, but I think he may be better over further, and I can't beleive how short Starluck is after one run in a poor race.

Captain  chris is a 2m4f horse.

To be honest I think Ghizao, Finians Rainbow, Medermit, Realt Dubh and Captain Chris would be best over 2m 4f.

it may turn out to be the best form,but its certainly open to debate i feel,especially as CV just said Chris is a 2 and half miler.Finians smashing of Hells Bay is also good but again we are talking about a 2 and half miler,but he did beat Medermit,although again over 2 and half miles.
Using Loosen my Load,their is also an argument that Realt Dubh has the best piece of form.
Really its difficult to say whats the best form imo.

I'm keeping out of this.

well Finians is a proper 2m horse as far as i have seen,he was campaigned over further last season,but werent quiet up to it at the toplevel.The drop back to 2m over fences seems perfect for him,and enables him to travel well and stay within his comfort zone.
To be honest he is the one horse in the race that i can see totally outclassing the field.

To be honest I agree with you Bud.

There are flaws in all the market leaders, and this year we are trying to link 2m form with 2m4f form; whereas last year the likes of Sizing Europe, Captain Cee Bee, Mad Max, Riverside Theatre etc had all been campaigned over 2m / 2m1f so it was easier to draw comparisons imo.

By no means do I think that Ghizao's form is absolute standout and is head and shoulders over the others, but from what I've seen so far he does have the best form over 2m this year.  I've backed him, but only small stakes because I'm finding it tough working it out.

If Ghizao, Finians Rainbow and Medermit were all the same price, I would pick Ghizao, so for him to be the longest is a bonus.

Not saying FR cant win, but visually jumping and much sterner tests may I add Ghizao is the only winner between the two

Fair enough Chief.
He certainly has impressed me with his jumping,i just feel that a couple of the others are better horses,but like you say its tough working it out.

I reckon Andy Stewarts comments need to be taken with a pinch of salt, he sees the Arkle as a bogey race for him and is probably playing down Ghizaos chances so as not to get his hopes up, especially after Tatenen the other year.

Make no doubts about it if connections didn't feel he was up to winning he'd be mopping up the prizemoney in some of the soft graded races we've been having over te last couple of months. He's still the one to beat in my opinion.

have a go at FR jumping,and then tip Medermit who over 2m has jumped worse!!

By: This user is offline. brigust1
Date Joined: 07 Dec 01
Add contact | Send message When: 01 Mar 11 17:45 I'm keeping out of this.

i like ghizao and think he will run very well, but i dont see why andy stewart is saying this. nicholls has never publicly questioned if the horse is good enough or otherwise. maybe im looking into this more than i should but is there any chance andy would do this to get a better price?

Someone mentioned that earlier in the thread. As we know David Johnson part owns the horse and he clearly loves a tickle now and then, I suspect he likes a bet aswell.

has it affected the horses price much? ....il go check

nope, not in the slightest

Medermits jumping has improved over 2 and half miles,his jumping at the Arkle distance has not been as good,and hes even refused!! I am of the opinion that the Arkle will find him out.

Finians has run over 2m all season and largely jumped fine,odd mistake but never really affected him.

I know which one i would rather have.

Anyway back to Ghizao,been the best jumper i think,but dont think he will prove to be good enough.

id rather have ghizao or medermit over finians.

arkles are invaribly won by staying types,not speed horses,my way de solzen,tidal bay,sizing europe recent examples

Clutching at straws Evra?

When My Way de Solzen won the 2 miler and favourite, Twist Magic, fell early on. He went on to beat Fair Along. How weak was that race after the faller?
Tidal Bay bt Kruguyrova by 13 legths, terrible race. Favourite Noland rated 135 hurdler, wasn't right and finished 3rd.
Sizing Europe was/is a 2 miler and he bt Somersby who is also 2 miler.

More importantly how many 2 milers and top class hurdlers didn't win the Arkle?

what was ghizao rated over  hurdles ??

Ghizao 135 OR.

I can only find 2 horses in ages rated 160 and they are Sizing Europe and Osana. Ran in same race finished 1st and 3rd.
The next nearest is Moscow Flyer rated 151.

Still looking.

Think Starluck was rated quite high over hurldes Brig

Easy race to way up
1st Medermit
2nd Ghizao
3rd Realt Dubh
4th Captain Chris
NH has cost FR any chance by campaigning him very poorly in small races and not given him the chance to learn how to jump at arkle pace.
Medermit on the other hand has been trained perfectly for this race and has improved for each run and looked every bit a future champion on his last 2 runs,had loads in hand over a top class field last time,jumps and travels brilliantly,Ghizao is his only threat in the race,his form also stacks up,gave C Chris 10lb and a beating,Irish form not as strong and RD will be a long way behind the front 2 with CC chasing him home

Yes, 161, that's why I backed him. Mind you Medermit was rated 164 when he finished behind Starluck in last year's CH.

it will be interesting to review those comments after the race.

Can't get a bet on then though.
Finian's Rainbow was a 145 rated hurdler. If I hadn't already backed Starluck I would be backing Medermit but, as yet, I don't know what is running.

Although I do agree that good hurdles form has a big say in the Arkle, but atm Ghizao is the highest rated over fences, the highest RPR and the only one with CD next to his name.

you need to look at the form again mate.Doing Realt Dubh a disservice.
use Loosen my Load.

As for Medermit his best runs are over 2 and half miles,not 2m.
Hes in the wrong race imo

FR smashed Hells Bay. Hells Bay was cantering all over Medermit when he demolished the last fence when they met, still beat him though.
As you are using form over further to back your Medermit claims,though i would do the same re FR.
Mind you at least FR has actually been running over 2m all season.

Its far from easy,and with your attitude i fear for you.

Hi Bud. I've already backed FR and Star. When I know what's running I will want Medermit on my side. That would give me the 3 best horses in the race. Two as savers.
Ghizao I cannot read. The Captain Chris and Surfing bit looks strange. Is CC only as good as Surfing who bt Dinarius a 109 rated hurdler by 3 lengths when beaten last time out? Also was the race in the fog at Newbury where horses coming up the middle had a massive advantage? Backspin won that day I think. AP came down the middle, it had a huge advantage.

its easy budd,if you cant see that Medermit is all speed after his last run then i would steer clear of this race if i were you,he is just about as solid a fav as you will get all week,will be smashed in on the day and go off around 2/1 and bolt up,the current 4/1 is still huge! get on!

Hi mate,
Backed FR start of season,Starluck before his run,so both at nice prices.Added Realt Dubh today NRNB with sj.
That will do me.
Dont think Ghizao is good enough,but agree its not easy to be sure about him,but have to make a stand sometime.
medermit as i have said in the wrong race imo,course i could be wrong but all i have seen of him suggests to me that he is more comfortable with his jumping over further.

no thanks formman.his last run was over 2 and half,are we allowed to use form over that distance or not??
cos if so,on a line through Hells Bay,FR is the better horse.
if not,i belive Medermits best form over 2m is at Plumpton in a 3 runner race,something that keeps coming up as a reason not to fancy FR!!

my apologies,the 3 runner race was at Aintree.Their were a few more at Plumpton but not a great race.
Thats it for him over 2m,mind you what was the distance when he refused,i forget,was that 2m?

My take on it so far is:

Medermit
Very close between him and Starluck over the best hurdler in the field.  My main worry is that his best races have been over further this year, and is held by Finian's Rainbow on a line through Hell's Bay.  As Bud says, I'd much prefer him in the Jewson

Finian's Rainbow
I have been impressed with him, especially the way he beat Hell's Bay.  He wasn't overly impressive last time but I remember in September Geraghty was saying what an engine he's got and how he well he took to fences in the summer, and said he was one to look out for, at the time most people were fancying Spirit River, but Geraghty always believed

Ghizao
Not in the same class as Medermit, Finians Rainbow or Starluck over hurdles, I'd put him around the same level as Realt Dubh over hurdles.  He has improved a lot over fences, and has always looked like a chaser rather than a hurdler.  He has won well over 2m this season, but was that against 2m4f like Cap Chris, Loosen my Load etc.

Starluck
I'd be much more keen if he was campaigned over fences from the beginning of the season; this is too much of an after thought.  There was nothing wrong with his run the other week, but there is no value at all in his price on the back of a public schooling session.

Realt Dubh
Noal Meade says he is his best chance of a winner at the Festival, and good performance in Irish Arkle.  Not sure if he would have beaten Flat Out, but you have to stay on your feet to win.  The majority of his races have been on soft or heavy ground.  I don't know if he would act on good ground - I'm not saying he won't, just asking a question.

As I've said in this thread before, there are positives and negatives for all of them and the 2m / 2m4 races have just muddied the waters.  A couple of months ago this was looking like a poor race, but now it's taking shape and looking ultra competitive between the top 5.

I was gutted about Flat Out because I would have really fancied him if he were to line up, which is why I've only recently been coming around to Ghizao.  This debate will run and run until the race, similar to the Champion Hurdle, so that's my view for what it's worth.

Good luck to all anyway

budd u must of watched a diff race to me at chelt new year as i just watched race again an medermit was going just as well if not better all way down the hill against hells bay an imo choc should of kicked him on an he wouldnt of got beat choc rode him that day 2 see if he got the trip not 2 win the race, if he is given the same ride like sandown latest it would take a serious horse to beat him

i will have another look CD.Way i remember it,HB would have won more if not clouting the last.If Medermit was going just as well,how come he did not win after HB's mistake??
will get back to you after watching again.

choc let tizzard get up the inside an hells bay kicked on before he pressed the button an he didnt jump the second last well but run on well 2 line imo if race was over 2 miles m8 choc could of kicked on an put race to bed like sandown[;)]

i am going to take the cantering all over him back CD,he werent.Looking back on it HB was going a bit better towards the last,but i was wrong to imply that it was easy.
I have backed Hells Bay for the 2 and half novice,and am glad Medermits not opposing.

think hells bay has good e/w chance in that race m8 but i think king has chosen the right race for medermit gl an cant wait im like a kid waiting for xmas day[smiley:crazy]

gl to you too,like a kid myself mate.

ghizao will win...it looks like medermit makes too much of an effort at his fences there are obstacles to him whereas ghizao looks to have springs and relishs them...will be a really tactical race though !

This is what i presume are quotes in Marc Howards OJA from Nicky Henderson.

Finian's Rainbow

An exciting horse who was bought to be a chaser and that is what he will be doing this season. He did nothing wrong over hurdles though winning twice and finishing a close third in the Cleeve Hurdle at Newbury before taking his chance at Cheltenham. It is very difficult to win those novice hrdles at the festival, especially for a horse who is really a chaser in the making. A high-class horse, he is crying out for fences and i hope he will be very good. Two and half miles looks his trip.

Goretski, I suggest you look up other quotes in that book about some of the other contenders too! They change their opiniions all the time.

Sint i agree, constantly contradicting themselves and changing their minds but having said that it's still an indicator of what Henderson thought of him at one stage, whether or not he still thinks along those lines is anybodys guess.

The arkle has been the focus of my antepost bets for the last 2 years and luckily i picked 4 paddy and sizing my two best memories of chelt.

This yr i believe Ghizao has all the credentials of an arkle winner bar his hurdles form. He's such a fluent, accurate jumper and gets into a rhythm early putting any horse with suspect jumping under pressure. In a race where there is no margin for error i believe he will have them all in trouble early in the race. I 've stated previously Kilmurry was a hell of a horse and was no forelorn hope had he ran.

I don't think this horse has captured the public's imagination (nor even his owners) because a) too many Nicholls arkle fav's have fallen on their sword b) his hurdle ratings (he has improved dramatically for wind op and the change to larger obsticles).... i'll be putting on the max **** bet because for me whatever beats him wins it

*spoils* special offer

In response to my post on 20:31, I've found the quote from Barry Geraghty from 16th October 10

"Finian’s Rainbow is definitely one to keep on the right side in novice chases this season — he absolutely devours fences. This is one that I am very much looking forward to and was very good again this week."

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=512021&lid=at+the+races+blogs&raceid=&title=Barry+Geraghty+(16+Oct)&ref=At+The+Races+Blogs&nav=at+the+races+blogs&sub=&day=Wed

It's quite interesting reading the early blogs where he talks about horses he likes that have schooled well.  He talks about Sprinter Sacre, Bob's Worth, Chablais, A Media Luz, Minella Class.  Could have got some juicy prices back in October!!

I can't have Ghizao. Most Arkle winners are fancied when they set out chasing but not Ghizao. He did bolt up in his 2 wins but I have Silvinaco Conti in the back of my mind. He also looked unbeatable around the same time but the wheels came off. I think ths has the same profile.
Finian's Rainbow will make the running and NH has always thought he would be a top class chaser. He does think two and a half miles will be his trip though. He's obviously not been showing that special speed required to be a two miler.
I really can't see any of the outsiders springing a suprise so I think the winner comes from Medermit, Finian's and possibly Starluck.
The pace will be fast by FR, Medermit will be able to go the pace because he was close up in the CH for a long way but he will have to jump and Starluck will have to stay.
Un-original I know.

brigust1 Joined: 07 Dec 01
Replies: 1753 02 Mar 11 18:45   
Clutching at straws Evra?

When My Way de Solzen won the 2 miler and favourite, Twist Magic, fell early on. He went on to beat Fair Along. How weak was that race after the faller?
Tidal Bay bt Kruguyrova by 13 legths, terrible race. Favourite Noland rated 135 hurdler, wasn't right and finished 3rd.
Sizing Europe was/is a 2 miler and he bt Somersby who is also 2 miler.

More importantly how many 2 milers and top class hurdlers didn't win the Arkle?


Ok, let's get a few things straight here. When My Way De Solzen won the Arkle, Twist Magic did not fall early on, he fell at the 2nd last. And he was far from being the favourite. I'm pretty sure Fair Along was favourite for that race. Sounds to me like you didn't even see it as you are wrong about the prices and the events that occured in that race.
And to get your point across that 2 milers always win the race you use the result of one race (last years) as an example having just posted two results above where horses who stay further won. The fact is that in recent times most horses that win the Arkle stay 2.5 miles.

hey....and when twist magic fell going well 2 out....another horse fell right next to him also going well....and i think that particular horse stays a bit further than 2 miles also

Medermit is absolutely in the right race....i think it's a bit lazy to simply say, oh well he had problems at 2 miles and when he goes back they will show up again....if this horses jumping had not improved we would see it over whatever distance he was running over, including in its last 2 races......king stepped him up in trip which has helped him in his education of jumping and i see no reason why once back at 2 he won't be able to jump just like the last twice.

Remember, we're not talking about a horse who is tapped for toe over 2 miles, so he makes mistakes because he's having to go quicker than he likes, he travels easily over a 2 mile trip so his jumping won't suffer in that department, personally i think king has played a blinder in saying right...he's novicey lets teach him by stepping him up....he's ironed that out and he's got it right.

As for running in the longer race, apart from it being an insult to the class of the horse...i think he doesn't get 2 and a half well enough....he was out stayed by hells bay and was nearly caught by captain chris who he was travelling all over 1 fence earlier.

I believe he is the perfect horse for the arkle....he can travel easily through his races....he "is" a good jumper....stays further than the 2 miles.....won't mind drying ground.....is from a stable that are well versed in winning this race.....and is all class.

Plus he would have had to carry a penalty in the golden miller going for the 60 grand bonus. right race without a doubt.

Yaboya I was responding to Evra who brought up My Way De Solzen. So read the whole thread ffs.
And were do you get this Ok, let's get a few things straight here.rubbish. You highlighted one point.
I was wrong about when Twist Magic fell but he was going like a winner and was a 2 miler, not a stayer, in that very race.
It was Tatiano I was thinking about who was favourite and fell early. I'm so sorry.
Do you understand though? I was responding to an earlier poster. It wasn't my point. I never selected these races someone else did.

Is that enough points to get straight??

If you look through recent Arkles very few good, high rated 2 mile hurdlers actually run in the race. Sizing Europe and Moscow Flyer were two.

I personally don't think there is a given set of standards required to win an Arkle. It depends on strength in depth. After all One Man won the Hennessy and then the 2 mile Champion Chase.

Duffy,
i aint being lazy re Medermit,i am just voicing my opinion having watched his races over fences this season.Of course you may be right re the trainer being clever,and he may turn out to be the perfect Arkle horse.
I have seen all his races and decided that his jumping has been better over further,whether thats purely cos he has improved his jumping,or cos he prefers going a tad slower over fences,i dont know,just have an opinion.
I am prepared to be proved wrong,just at this stage dont think i am.

FR is a very similar horse to another of Nickys, Petit Robin, low head carriage, big engine, front runs. If NH thinks a lot of him he must be a similar standard- only his jumping at a frantic pace is a doubt.

Saying that Ghizao has the big set of shoulders and jumps well like many Arkle horses.

To be fair,they will all be tested jumping wise.None of them will have experienced what is coming up in the Arkle.
I agree Ghizao has looked the best jumper this season,although i think Realt Dubh has been ok.FR has mainly jumped well,particularly on his debut,but i agree he has made an error or 2,mainly at Warwick when put in behind.If allowed to bowl along he has shown he jumps better.
I have said all along that imo FR is different class to Ghizao,but of course he still has to jump well,and accept out the 2 Ghizao has looked the more likely in that Dept.
Fascinating race its turned out to be,and if Starluck runs,even more so.

Good morning Budd.

I'm not sure about Ghizao. PN had a clutch of winners including Sam Winner, Silviano Conti and Ghizao who looked outstanding and likely Cheltenham winners early season but the nes that have run the wheels ame off. If SC hadn't run after Ascot and was put away for Cheltenham he would have been considered very dangerous and the same about Sam Winner. I'm not saing they can't win but they looked almost unbeatable at the time. Not now.

*ones that have run the wheels came off*

Bad news for Mr Stewart. It's not a bad Arkle? There's no such thing. Sure you get some real moderate animal's running in them but the first 2 or 3 home usually end up decent chasers.


Right now they are all just novices and some will have a bright future ahead of them. If Ghizao did win and Finian's Rainbow, Starluck, Realt Dhub or Medermit were to finish 2nd I 'd say that would be seen as a top class performance  by novice standards in anyone's book.

I would not be too confident to write of Sam Winner just yet. PN already said it was a big mistake to run him in that ground lto and a break was just what the doctor ordered. Not saying he will win the triumph, just saying though that too early to write off!
I personally cannot see past GHIZAO, MEDERMIT, and now STARLUCK, yes the star has it to prove but his jumping was good and he would be good enough on hurdles form.
FR for me is a place lay. Cannot see that finishing to be honest, a front runner he will be a sitting duck to the aforementioned. Kilmurry i am convinced was going to put him to the sword lto before blundering and getting injured.

Sea I'm not writing off Sam Winner, not at all. But I think you will find he was looking almost banker material a while ago, not so now.
Had he not run last time he would be a good deal shorter. My point is Ghizao hasn't run lately whereas SW and SC have and their chances reduced.

Brigust, I would suggest the fact Nicholls put Ghizao away but chose to keep SW and Silviano running is an indicator of what regard he holds their chances of winning in March.

You may be right Sin. He may also be wanting to take a certain sized group for certain owners who want to see their horses run at Cheltenham.
In his countdown to Cheltenham preview he spoke highly of Ghizao then finished with 'he's probably our best shot on the first day'.
Probably? When you consider the only other fancied runner he has is Al Ferof and he isn't even definite for the Supreme.

Brigust, you can interpret quotes in many ways. How often do you see top trainers play down their chances in top races, because they are nervous and just want to focus on winning it ?

Sometimes when trainers have a right chance of winning a top race, they are non-commital or diplomatic. It is a sub-concious thing.

Saeed Bin Suroor on Mastery in Hong Kong just recently is a prime example imo.

I know Sin. But when you get down to the nitty gritty you look for anything to sway you one way or another.
Of the top three both A King and N Henderson thought their two were potentially top class chasers. PN didn't. And he's not exactly backward in coming forward, is he?
He was the worst hurdler of the three and looks like he requires soft ground at least. His form lines are questionable because he beat the same horse in both wins on ground that horse doesn't want.
He has no other form to put him clearly in the mix.
Andy Stewart said he thought he might not be good enough and that backs up where we are at the moment.
I'm not saying he can't win, no-one knows for sure, but I would put him last of the 3 favourites.

i wouldn't be writing off sam winner either....i was really impressed with the way (in his 2nd cheltenham win) he didn't travel as well as he did in his previous race , but still quickened into the straight and was ultimately an impressive winner......by the way....apologies budd.

no worries mate,cheers.