Will the 'curse' of Montjeu strike Hurricane Fly?

how many Montjeu horses have ever run at Cheltenham ?

Not sure tbh that Montjeu's IMO take all that well to NH racing in general. Can't think off of my head too many that have reached the level's of Hurricane Fly. He is a bit of a freak regardless if he wins the Champion Hurdle or not so I could not follow stats to rule him out.

Glad that the conclusion is that it's a ridiculous "stat".

hawkwinger, montjeu has had 44 runners at cheltenham (21 of them at the festival) none of which have won

How many have placed and how many are as good as HF ?

mickthefish, those stats are wrong: there's a full break down on my blog if you want to cut/paste this link http://wp.me/1o7dN

Only 25 of Montjeu’s stock have run at Cheltenham.  Among them they’ve amassed 42 runs there.

15 of the 25 have run at the Festival, contesting 21 races.

ok i worded it wrong.

Hurricane Fly wont get up the hill..He will FLY up the hill [;)]

Not having a go mate, it's just that plenty people hear a particular 'stat' and take it as read.  Remember when Cap Cee Bee won the Supreme? I heard countless people who put a line through him because 'dismiss seven-year-olds;they have a terrible record".

When I checked the previous ten years only a handful that age had ever run in it

no probs m8 was just replying to an earlier question.I personally will not have a bet in the race,far too open for me.good luck and enjoy.

how many oscars have won a champion hurdle?how many p2p winners have won a champion,does that rule peddlers cross out [;)]

Nice Blog Joe, agree with the Eider fiasco, the running surface there is a joke and should have been replaced ages ago, racing on a stick reading of 3.4 is madness.

how many oscars have won a champion hurdle?how many p2p winners have won a champion,does that rule peddlers cross out

l cant find out stats for former p2p runners but offspring of Oscar have ran 121 times at Cheltenham, winning 15 times (12.5% S/R).

29 of those runs where over a 16-17f with 3 winning (10.33% S/R)

Not fantastic, but better than Montjeu l think you would agree.

He may not have bred a Champion Hurdle winner but he has bred a Champion Chase winner in Big Zeb.

Kauto star doesn't go left handed another of your wild beliefs about horses you don't like. Glad you are usually wrong steeple and you dislike of hurricane fly is tiresome. As you can  see from your list it's a who's who of poor horses, their problems were they weren't very good. Also only three contested grade 1s and they were novice races.

people need to think back to go natives supreme. If fly was fit he'd have won that, no question. Which means your getting up the hill rubbish would be supplanted with something  else.

Your like to point out his last race where you neglect to say it was his 3rd race in six weeks and he'd cut himself lto.

Go spend your energy on something else instead of constantly having a go at hurricane fly. You're a broken record at this stage.

Also from the three grade 1 runners, the odds on one of them winning was 9.37 which means statistically insignificant.

Steeple, I read last week the sire of Pandorama has never had a winner over 3 miles at the Festival. Is this true ?

Denman was bred for 2 1/2 miles. Will people stop with this breeding nonsense. Half the genes of the sire go into his offspring. It's as far from exact science as they come. A merge of chromosomes. Judge a horse on his breeding when you buy him, judge his chances of winning based on what he's done at the track.

CV, in fairness you shouldn't tell people what to do. If you think they are stupid, that's fine, and ultimately they'll end up with egg on their face, but you need to be a bit more tolerant of other peoples opinions,im afraid.

Like I said, if you think they are stupid, then ultimately they will lose anyway.

Thing is Steeple, HF has proved his stamina by winning in good style over longer distance than the CHurdle.So no,The Montjeu factor will have nowt to do with his chances in the CHurdle.
Its simply a case of whether hes good enough,and we wont know that till after the race.

I like steeple in general, but sick of him singling out hurricane fly. He's been at it for a long time and has something against the horse. So in this case I believe it's selective  one sided evidence used to knock the horse. Total bias that I'll attack.

This is betfair at cheltenham time, it's a sess pool. Proper discussion is for purple forum. This place is battle lines.

Blimey CVB, a little severe that reprimand mate! I do agree some people have dislikes against certain horses (i've been accused of the same with Hurricane Flay and Kauto Star), and arguing against inherent bias is frustrating, but I think Sintonian is right (as is often the case) - the results will eventually 'out' them (or not!).

Steeple, will follow the blog, excellent stuff. GL.

what was the w mullins horse by montjeu who won a national,i think it was the cork national

our monty

He's had a long held dislike for the horse which has irritated me. Made  worse by the frequency of his attacks on the horse.

cheers rev,was wrecking my head couldnt think of it
i wouldnt imagine many montjeus have won many nationals!

oh well at least your not ranting about the situation

no i wouldnt think so ste

CV have you read the blog piece? He doesn't attack the horse - he agrees with you that the Montjeu stat is irrelevant?

lol rev,actually not a bad blog to read

yeah i read it, its good

Read it, he uses his grade 1 irish champion hurdle win as a reason he won't get up the hill.

what does your blog compare it to?

Steeple hasnt had a go at the horse on this thread or anywhere else.

CVB, you are being overly defensive because you are so blinkered in favour of HF. You cant abide anybody questioning a horse you think will win.

He has had a go on the champion hurdle thread. I am not saying the horse will win the champion hurdle, but he deserves a bit of respect and the chance to race at cheltenham before people start having a go at him. He has done nothing but impress done day one.

Hurricane Fly has the best form in the race and he's the best horse in the race, he will prove it in 14 days time.

Am 100% a HF fan and firmly of the opinion that when he puts his best foot forward going up that hill that the rest will be left trailing in his wake. I also think that steepechasings blog is very informative and would agree with quite a lot of his conclusions

By: This user is online. CVByrne
Date Joined: 14 Mar 06 Add contact | Send message When: 01 Mar 11 12:47 I like steeple in general, but sick of him singling out hurricane fly. He's been at it for a long time and has something against the horse. So in this case I believe it's selective  one sided evidence used to knock the horse. Total bias that I'll attack.

This is betfair at cheltenham time, it's a sess pool. Proper discussion is for purple forum. This place is battle lines.


I know what you are saying. It does feel like that on here, wondering whether some **** will copy and paste posts from the past once results in. It's as if you almost have to be on you guard, this is a result of the a55holes who go around gloating and behave like a55wipers. Mayweather has just turned up by a stroke of coincidence.

Any racing fan will be a fan of HF. He's a terrific horse. Everyone wants to see a new star, and he clearly has the most potential to be a superstar.

But the reservations people have are still well founded and should be respected imo. None of us will be surprised if he wins well, but at the same time, I certainly wouldnt be surprised if the travelling, ground, track dont suit him and he disappoints. I sincerely hope its the former mind you.

Hurricane Fly wins the 2011 Champion Hurdle! He is the real thing! The doubters are silenced! Oi Oi Oi Oi Oi

Well posted, Can't Catch Me.

I haven't backed HF for this, but I would be delighted if he did win, not least for CV and for HF's other supporters and the connections who have endured such disappointments with the horse not making the Festival in the last two years. Also, if he wins, there is a fair chance it will be in great style which should please all racing fans.

My point is there's no reason to think the hill or anything else  will be a problem. So until he falters he deserves to be respected. You don't have to back the horse, but don't go knocking him for something he hadn't had the opportunity to try.

My snapping in this regard is because for two years now steeple has been negative about this horse when I think he has earned the right to be respected more.

Hurricane Fly smashed an in-form Go Native at Leopardstown because Go Native went on the win the Supreme  Novices Hurdle. Hurricane Fly is the best since Istabraq and he will win! so be quiet melon heads.

Hurricane Fly

CV I really don't get how you or anyone can argue that the fact he hasn't run at Cheltenham before is a potential problem, there is of course every chance he will handle but it still has to be a question mark next to his name.

The Champion Hurdle is a unique test and one much different to the majority of novice races and small field trial races in the fact they run at a break neck pace throughout. This is shown by the fact that 7 of the past 11 renewals have gone to horses who had run in the race before. In fact 8 of the last 10 winners had achieved a topspeed over C+D of 149+, Also the only horses to place in the last 5 renewals not to have achieved this rating are Punjabi when 3rd (139), Sublimity won (139), Afsoun 3rd (135) and Macs Joy 2nd (146). With this being such a strong renewal I think that its more than fair to use the case that Hurricane Fly is at a disadvantage compared to the likes of Binocular, Khyber Kim and Menorah.

CV aint got a clue about horses that's why! Don't listen to that muppet.

Wouldn't say that Mayweather. Also I obviously meant can 'argue the fact that he hasn't run at Cheltenham before isn't a problem'

I dont know how much Steeple has criticised him, so thats not for me to say.

But sometimes you take it as people knocking the horse, when they are really just questioning (or thats how it sounds to me). Its beyond doubt that course form is a big factor, so its a big leap of faith to just dismiss this as not being a worry. there's no reason to think the hill or anything else will be a problem is a bold statement. I personally cant help but feel Cheltenham will never be the course where he will produce his best. He might be talented enough to win a CH in spite of that. I hope so.

I'm not knocking the horse, or disrespecting him, by suggesting that. Just discussing.

CV hasnt got a clue, he could not tip a snooker cue.

Mayweather. Nobody gives a toss what you think about anything. No offence and all that.

Can't Catch Me - your not any better so no point you coming on these forums either, weasel!

Point is a lot of Hurricane Flys detractors are saying that the horse won't handle the course, often throwing in the Montjeu chestnut as hard evidence. It's like they think he's some two year old stepping up to seven furlongs in a maiden at Epsom. He's not, he is a proven Grade 1 performer, a champion hurdler in his native shores and the most likely winner of this years renewal imo.

Mr M. I dont think the detractors are saying he wont handle the course. Just rightly suggesting its a worry. As EC has pointed out, not many come and win a CH without any course form. I want HF to win, but this is clearly a big worry to me. At the end of the day, this kind of debate is what its all about isnt it?

I agree completely EC the conditions faced in the champion hurdle are  unique and how a horse handles them is open to question until he experiences it. But since only binocular and khyber kim have experienced it then it should be used as an advantage for them rather than a disadvantage to others.

It will be the first time menorah, peddlers, dunguib, oscar, mille chief as well as hurricane fly experience the pace of a champion hurdle. So I take exception when it's used as a stick to knock hurricane fly alone with.

Why not mention his irish champion hurdle win was one of the fastest times posted in the race regardless of ground conditions.

Also EC I reject the top speed at the track lark. If you have a good horse he'll have run at the festival and if he is going to be  good enough to won a champion hurdle then he'll have run well at the festival. Given hurricane fly hasn't had the chance to run at the track he is clearly exempt from the stat.

Just think how fly would have done in the  supreme go native won, out how he'd do in a greatwood off 156. Or in a bula against sil conti getting 4lbs.

Exactly, won them.

The stat about cheltenham form is there because if a horse has tried and failed before at cheltenham then he's more likely to fail again. 95% of the start is made up by such cases our of  horses not good enough for the festival the first time round.

Look I've a masters degree in statistics, the butchery of stats in racing 4pts my head in.

Personally, I would more favour Hurricane Fly is he wasn't the only horse in the race with his profile; he hasn't run at Cheltenham before, he hasn't run in England before, he's relatively lightly raced for his age, in uncompetitive events...there's very little we know about him, other than he's clearly a talented horse!

Pace won't be an issue because all classy horses run well off a strong pace, ground won't be an issues as he's sired from a flat performer, and he clearly stays the trip. The problem is NO ONE, not CVByrne, not anyone else knows if he handles the track, and knows that he'll settle in the atmosphere, and those who think he will are guessing because there is no evidence anywhere to support this.

Menorah, Binocular, Peddlers Cross we all know they handle conditions, and the simple facts are you'd have to tick every box on their profiles that you would Hurricane Fly; the problem is you cannot tick the track, the atmosphere and the hill in Hurricane Fly's profile because we don't know, and in my book horses with a string of ticks in every box are a more attractive proposition than one's with question marks.

*4pts = does

how many oscars have won a champion hurdle?how many p2p winners have won a champion,does that rule peddlers cross out


YES

CV, I think you're high on Festival Fever. Read my blog post with some objectivity, instead of seeking small sections where I 'criticise' HF.

I hate the horse so much I have backed him this year and last year for the CH.  I love the horse for God's sake - superb traveller, mostly a fine jumper with a breathtaking turn of foot.  But I don't let my admiration for him get in the way of my analysis of the race and I am always willing to change my mind based on devloping evidence.

Had I seen his Irish CH run, I would not have backed him for Cheltenham. It is nothing personal, I assure you.  Perhaps his lack of response late on was due to a busy schedule as I've mentioned elsewhere. Maybe his tendency to jump right has nothing to do with past injuries.  I MIGHT WELL BE WRONG about him and I hope I am as I've got a few quid on him. 

Calm down mate, or you won't last till the Festival :)  My blog link again for those who wish to cut/paste it.  http://wp.me/1o7dN

Fair enough steeple.

But can't you cut the horse a break though, he won the irish champion hurdle in an excellent time and was only given one  slap down the shoulder by townend. Not only that but it was his 3rd race in 6 weeks and he'd got a cut in his previous race and was unimpressive in his  work the week of the champion.

So given all of this don't you think that win was pretty good  instead of focusing on the fact he didn't keep putting distance after his  initial burst of speed.

Peddlers and binocular have had less then impressive runs this season too, you don't get on their case.

I thought he was ridden out quite vigorously towards the end CV, but we perceive different things, that's what it's all about.

Sint, Pandorama's sire, Flemensfirth, is also the sire of Imperial Commander, Time for Rupert, Tidal Bay, Joe Lively and a few others. Over all trips he's bred 6 winners from 38 runners at the Festival (14 placed).

CV,they have all had runs we could criticise.
End of the day their are reasons why all of them could win and also lose,and i think it fair to say they have all had comments about them,positive and negative,given the amount of coverage this forum has given the race!!

Yes I wondered if if was something of a worry for Time For Rupert, but it clearly isn't. I actually read that stat in a Racing Post Festival guide! It is shocking really and woefull inaccurate.

Townend said "I only had to give him a slap after the last; he's a true professional and a proper horse".

While mullins said "He got a cut here the last day and it may be partly responsible for him working only average this week. But this was a proper trial. He came off a decent gallop nicely and went away at the end. So the plan is to give him a little break before building him up for cheltenham"

So factor that against the fact he posted a time at the track faster than any of brave inca, hardy or macs ever did, and they ran on better ground at times too.

CV the ground was nowhere near as slow as the official going description that day. Time based it was only 'good' and certainly nowhere near the official 'soft'. Comparatively it was running in a slower time than the Grade C Chase won by the then 111 rated By The Hour, that race was run 0.09s above standard, compared to Hurricane Fly 0.19s, Hence why he only got a topspeed in the 120s for that run.

Won in the dark ran a quicker time than Hardy/Brave/Macs ever did: does that mean he's just as good as them as well?

It was not in a nikon years anything near good ground. Also I'm talking about the grade one races at leopardstown won in the dark has never won one. Then you  have day of a lifetime on the same card 5 seconds slower. It was a very good trial on the times.

Why was it never 'in a nikon years anything near good ground'? All the times that suggest it was and watching back Hurricane Fly/Day of a Lifetime nothing else suggests it's not near good.

Look the point I'm trying to make is Hurricance Fly wasn't at his best yet managed to come off a strong pace and deliver his burst of speed after the last when only given one slap by Townend. He ran a very good time for an Irish Champion Hurdle and a time that was 6.5 seconds than Day of a Lifetime posted on the same card.

There is also zero chance the ground was good on 23rd Jan in Ireland. There is no and was no good ground in this country for months. You don't get it ever.

By just watching the race you can see it's most certainly not good ground. Not in a million years is it. You're the only person who's ever brought up the idea it was good and that's because you rely on stats and figures too much and not enough on your own eyes.

No I just back the figures in this case over your eyes which as many people have already mentioned are very likely blinded when it comes to horses like Hurricane Fly.

If that 118 rated chaser By The Hour can run that sort of time in the 2m 3f handicap chase on 'soft ground' then he must have some amount in hand over the handicapper (apart from the fact the 1st and 2nd have both been beaten fair and square since).

You are too obsessed with your stats and never manage to give an opinion without going to them. You definately are too reliant in them.

Anyone can watch the race and see the ground was not good ground and in all reality you'd think if it was good I'd be first to use it to support the fact that Hurricane Fly has won on Good ground again, which would support the case that he goes on all ground. Instead I believe what is true, the going was soft or at best a tiny bit better than that.

I do not care what a handicapper did in a 2m3f handicap, I do not acre about the fine details of the going. I care about the pace they went and the time Fly posted in relation to Day of a Lifetime, that is all.

I'd give my opinion as well but seeing at the way you've treated other people's opinions before who don't agree with you I didn't really think it was worth it. The disdain you show to some people who don't agree with you is shocking. As you tell us(and have many times before) that you have a masters in stats I'm guessing you're a bit older than me. I'm only 20 but I hope I never treat people the way that you treat people on here sometimes when they don't agree with me.

I wish you all the best for Cheltenham though and hope you have a successful festival.

Im out.

EC

We just disagree on the ground issue. But the time he posted was 6.5s quicker than Day of a Lifetime on the same card and that's the important thing.

Also I get defensive when I believe people are unfair in their criticism of a horse. If someone is positive about a horse you won't see me having a go at them. But I will most certainly have a go at people who knock horses who don't deserve it or express a negative opinion I think is ridiculous. This forum, in my view, went down the toilet a long ago, it's not a community like it was and like we have elsewhere so I'm not bothered if my defence of some horses comes across as not nice.

Hurricane does not need defending,he will do his talking on the course this month,if there are idiots out there who want to lay him a bring up ridiculous negatives that dont exist then more fool them,every single one of them can just hold there hands up after the CH and say 'ok,yes,i am a moron'

like it form man