Cheltenham Festival
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Visually impressive last season, but considering the ground was riding pretty much 'good' the time was pretty average. The horses around him when 3rd in the Champion Hurdle 2009 have done nothing since (punjabi, celestial halo, crack away jack) and Binocular probably ran to his best using Snap Tie as a form line. The horses that finished behind him in last years Champion Hurdle have also done nothing since (Khyber Kim, Celestial Halo, Zaynar, Starluck). Even if you think his performance last year was top drawer, he still runs more average races than better ones. With all of the new horses in this year....Hurricane Fly, Menorah, Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whiskey, Dunguib, Mille Chief....I just cant see a horse not being better on the day than Binocular.
I presume I will be told im going mad.....but dont often get this race wrong.
Any opinions welcome
:-)
I presume I will be told im going mad.....but dont often get this race wrong.
Any opinions welcome
:-)
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Replies: 27
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I think he may be a lay I agree 2009 Champ Hurdle 3rd dont look great as this lot look a different league.
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I just think he's the only one in the race without any question marks. OK one of the younger ones may beat him, Peddlars is the most likely for me, but I woudn't lay him
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I would say he has many question marks. He often runs poor races, form could be dodgy. I would say the only one with no question marks is Hurricane Fly. Done nothing wrong all season and cant have the wont act at Cheltenham arguement
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I wouldn't like to lay him. We all know he's trained for one race a season and this is it. People were saying how last years Champion Hurdle field were much stronger than the previous and naturally after the event everyone wants to crab the form.
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BTW i'm not a backer either.
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1121/113/5311-311
Those form figures dont look like a horse that often runs poorly. |
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He'll be fit to run for his life, loves the fast pace and the track and has already proven his recent well being. No way I'd lay him at current prices
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Gonna divide opinion with a thread like this!
At the prices I'm a backer; done nothing wrong imo. |
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He's had a better prep than last year for sure!
Not going to back him as this is a very competitive race. As far as i'm concerned I can't be doing with having a serious bet in this, more of a spectacle for me |
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When horses are beaten people crab the form. This time last year people were saying it was the best champion for years now the form is suspect. We shall see what happens after this years result but a lot of the horses are yet to have a championship test yet and are pretty unexposed at this level. The same thing that there was last year. It's one thing to win a novice race at a festival or a grade 1 in Ireland but the Champion Hurdle is an entirely different prospect. Binocular is my only bet for the race and if he runs up to last years form and gets beat I would be more than suprised.
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Me too, good bet on Binocular, saver on Peddlars
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I think its pretty easy to crab the form. I like to see winners come out of races, and from the last 2 champion hurdles and there have not been many graded winners between them, even though they have kept apart.
Muirhead was 5 lengths behind Binocular (all out) in the CH 2009, Kyber Kim then finished 3 lengths behind Binocular in the CH 2010 and beat Muirhead at Aintree by 5 lengths which makes the form read almost exactly as it should. Hurricane Fly then came out and beat Muirhead by 10 lengths when needing the run and has improved since. Could look an idiot by mid afternoon on the tuesday but looks a very good lay at the minute to me |
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Lol you would be pretty lucky for that form to hold up at 3 different courses, in three different races, over 2 different distances not to mention the going and the pace of the race.
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I'm with the OP.
I think Binocular has plenty of questions to answer after a relatively poor camaign. As for the ground last year, I walked the course at 10.30am and it was good, no good to soft anywhere I assure you, and it was warm and sunny so the ground was only getting quicker, so much so that Claisse watered on the Tuesday night. Binocular won his race in 2.4 secs quicker than the Supreme run 2 hours earlier. I think this yars renewal is as good as I can remember, I'm a big Dunguib fan because with the talent that horse has 14s is huge value, but I think there are half a dozen genuine contenders so at the prices Binocular has to be a lay for me |
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If I back a horse it will be Dunguib too.....
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if theres not a better 2/7 et to be had than layin binocular then il give up
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i still havent decided who im backing,which says it all really,im sure im not the only one either,race is wide open as wide open can be,leaning towards hurricane fly at the minute,id be more a layer than a backer of binocular too for reasons already stated above
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I think he may be a horse thats hard to keep right for some reason, all that malarkey last year about being a very doubtful runner and being sent on holiday raises some questions
the thick black line is going through him, esp with give in the ground |
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I'm starting to go off Binocular big time. You take out his champion hurdle win and he hasn't put a performance
of substance for 2 years. If Overturn runs ,hes bound to set a fast pace and I could see Binocular blowing out. Looks a place lay on good to soft or softer. Peddlers Cross looks different class to me and if Overturn runs he'll set the race up for him. If Nicholls or Henderson owned PC he'd be short. 5/1 is an absolute gift. |
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im not a layer of horses,but if i were i would seriously look at Binos price being too short,so can understand people wanting to lay him.
This is a much better race than last year and he has not run sufficiently well this season as yet to beat this field.So if the price imo is based on last years performance(i think it has to be) and the fact that they got him right on the day last year so can do the same again,its too short.imo he has to run better than last year,not sure he can. |
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Isn't there some major stat that states that a horse has to have at least 15 career runs (flat and/or jumps) to win a champion hurdle - I may have just made that up - but I am sure I heard/read it somewhere.... if that is a fact then it wipes out many pretenders and it makes Binocular both the highest rated and strongest stat horse in the field.
No way is he a lay. |
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He's worth taking on at the likely price he'll go off, 5/2 imo. I wouldn't want to lay him though.
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As Mr H has said on many occasion "You don't win a champion hurdle in December".
Can see why many would oppose strictly looking at the form, all about opinions i guess. |
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Guess it depends if you think a repeat of last year, wins this year,i dont.
And i am sure all the trainers are hoping there horses will be ready to perform to their best on the day,Mr H included. |
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Agree, but some are better at doing it than others.
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None better than Henderson, he's open that Cheltenham is what the whole season is geared to
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I couldn't agree more HawkWinger - have just updated my blog to that effect: http://wp.me/p1o7dN-b
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