Cheltenham Festival
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I've got a couple of nice prices about finians rainbow but the way medermit has progressed this season has really impressed me....admittedly it's been since he's stepped up in trip where the real impression has been made, the way he travelled and jumped last time was the best by a novice this season by some way imo.
However, i wouldn't worry about him coming back to 2 miles for the arkle, and simply think that his 2 runs over further will have served him very well in his education and he will be able to bring that level of jumping ability back to the minimum trip.A horse as we know of great talent who ran well in the champion hurdle, the king stable look like they've got it right with this horse going into the arkle itself.
However, i wouldn't worry about him coming back to 2 miles for the arkle, and simply think that his 2 runs over further will have served him very well in his education and he will be able to bring that level of jumping ability back to the minimum trip.A horse as we know of great talent who ran well in the champion hurdle, the king stable look like they've got it right with this horse going into the arkle itself.
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Highest rated hurdler too isn't he? I nearly backed him at 10/1 ages ago because of that stat.
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I wrote the horse off early doors, but have to admit he has proved me wrong. My idea of the winner now.
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medamit has a decent chance ,but realt dubhs grade 1 race form looks very good to me ,form franked several times ,if the irish form is on a par with the english then his price is very generous imo.......
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Not wanting to knock Medermit at all he obviously has to be a contender, but thing the value has now gone and quite how Ghizao is not clear favourite I can't quite understand. On a line through Cap Chris he comes out comfortably the best horse in the race, in fact the only thing stopping me backing him is that nobody seems to fancy him! At the Exeter preview night Paul Nicholls was confident he was the one to beat.
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i cant get the fact that he refused at the 6th at huntingdon out of my head when assesing his chance at his price,how can we be sure he wont do it again,that should be factored into his price and i dont think it is tbh
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Duffy and CCM - I agree. I'm on FR at big prices but Medermit is the biggest threat IMO.
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marvellous race
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One of the bets of the week.
Hurdle rating right, jumps well, trained by a man who knows how to win an Arkle, french bred, not a front runner, has speeed, stamina. Finians Rainbow is a hype front runner nag who can't jump - not what you want for an Arkle Realt Dubh is so slow he'll need to start the day before Ghizao the only danger. |
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4/1 NRNB offers plenty of possibilities
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One of the worst fav's running at this years festival, in my opinion. Why is he favourite is beyond belief, on a line through Captain Chris has 10lb+ to find with Ghizao. The horse has 1 piece of worthwhile form, has refused already this season which has to be a doubt and is comforatbly held on the book. Why the hell is this horse 7/2???
Past hurdles form means nothing if you can translate it, over fences. No wonder Nicholls is in confident mood he has all the uk horses cooked. |
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Binocular 7/2.Medermit7/2.There is no doubt in my mind which is clearly the best bet.
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Looking at the Trends/Stats of the Arkle, Medermit is the most likely winner.
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Shamardal 28 Feb 11 14:13
One of the worst fav's running at this years festival, in my opinion. Why is he favourite is beyond belief, on a line through Captain Chris has 10lb+ to find with Ghizao. The horse has 1 piece of worthwhile form, has refused already this season which has to be a doubt and is comforatbly held on the book. Why the hell is this horse 7/2??? Couldn't agree more!! |
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I have him backed at 15-1. Lovely
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Am afraid hurdles form does mean something
Wins pulling a car |
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celestial halo was higest rated at srart of season
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yeah but he can't jump and medermit can
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starluck is the highest rated hurdler.
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Surely shome mishtake. Doesn't he get beat when he runs at Cheltenham? Ghizao the more solid proposition.
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Starluck surely not got enough experience over fences?
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One horse is an absolute stand out in this race and thats Ghizao. He's head and shoulders above any of the Uk trained horses and at the 5/1, mark has to be the bet. Best of luck to Medermit fans but that horse has so much more to prove, to warrant a solid favourite tag, at this years festival. Just depends, on how good those irish nags are.
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Have some really fancy double figure prices about Ghiazo before the season started,but having seen all the prep races Medermit is a massive standout for the arkle,looks the real deal on cannot be opposed,put 2 serious bets on for this years festival and one is Medermit,will take a serious amount of stopping
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march is here and as if by magic the ground begins to dry out and with it ghizao's chance goes with it.....when murphy got off this horse after it's first cheltenham in this season he said that the horse was ground dependant...a big worry...plus he's just not classy enough to win an arkle!!
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the value was to be had after he refused, it was a freakish afair, wont happen again, the horse can't remember it going by the way he jumped last time, so i think its time a lot of you forgot about him refusing and realise this horse has the best form on offer. Im happy with 16/1 anyway :)
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With Andy Stewart saying Ghizao shouldn't be good enough I think Medermit will go off clear favourite around 11/4ish so the 9/2 still available isn't bad value even now.
Whilst I'd also agree that Medermit is the most likely winner, at the prices Realt Dubh at 10/1 is surely the value bet of the race (if not the meeting) - hasn't really done anything wrong, travels sweetly, jumps, battles and Paul Carberry ain't a bad jockey either. |