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The Ad Man
28 Feb 11 00:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 Mar 02
| Topic/replies: 129 | Blogger: The Ad Man's blog
As it stands there are likely to be a number of horses that will run that will be under 4/1 starting price that will be fav at the 2011 festival - in the last three years there have been 46 horses to start as fav that were priced under 4/1 - only 8 have won (Quevega = 25% of the winners total as well !). Many greats have tried and been beaten - so no matter how certain you think you are be careful !

2010
The favs under 4/1
Losers
Dunguib 4/5, Captain Cee bee 5/2 (Unpl), Go Native 11/4 (Unpl), Garde Champetre 7/4 (unpl), Rite of Passage 7/2, Punchestowns 2/1 (Unpl), Master Minded 4/5 (Unpl), Shot from the Hip 3/1 (unpl), Alfie Sherrin 3/1 (unpl), Poquelin 11/4, Carlito Brigante 7/2 (unpl), Tell Massinni 10/3 (unpl), Kauto Star 8/11 (unpl)
Winners
Quevega 6/4, Big Bucks 5/6,

2009
The favs under 4/1 had a few winners 5 from 18
Cousin Vinny 9/4 (unp),Binocular 6/4,Lami 7/4,QUEVEGA 2/1
MIKAEL D ARGENT 5/2,COOLDINE 9/4,MASTER MINDED 4/11
Alexander Severus 11/4,Rite of Passage 5/2,Vor Por Ustedes 10/11,Kasbah Bliss 5/4 (unp),Poker di Siviola 7/2 (unp),Daves Dream 7/2 (unp),Pride of Dulcote,KAUTO STAR 7/4,Juveigner 7/2 (unp),Big Eared Fran 7/2,Poquelin 3/1 (unp)

2008
The age and finishing Stats didnt stand up this year with fine performances from Master Minded, Inglis Drever and Katchit defying stats and proving their undoubted talent.
Cheltenhams greatest stat stood up again though !

The Under 4/1 fav losers were out in force:
Kauto Star (evs), Franchoek (11/10), Ashkazar (15/8), Noland (7/4), Sizing Europe (2/1), Wonderkid (5/2), Vor Por ustedes (5/2), The Listener (10/3), Dont Push It (5/2), Zaarito (3/1), Chumba Wumba (10/3), My Petra (3/1)

13 Qualifiers - 12 Losers 4 Unplaced , 1 winner Inglis Drever 11/8 Win
Pause Switch to Standard View The favs getting beat at under 4/1...
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Report rogerthebutler February 28, 2011 7:01 AM GMT
The Wetherbys Betting Guide has a similar analysis, going back further, looking at even smaller odds fancies and how they fared.
Report The Ad Man February 28, 2011 8:06 PM GMT
The Weatherbys guide goes back a long way - this is actually a Simon Holt observation from years ago - cant believe how it works year after year
Report That Horse February 28, 2011 8:15 PM GMT
Year after year markets formed essentially from winter form then meeting essentially what could be seen as a different season in terms of ground, condition of horses, exposure, different course form etc.

The beauty of the festival, writing is not on the wall.
Report ZEALOT February 28, 2011 9:00 PM GMT
lay every favourite at the festival - 4/1 or under for a set liability
easy as that
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