Cheltenham Festival
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Key Stats;
Not won more than once over fences and had not won on either of their first 2 starts over fences. Although a new handicap to the festival but the stat has applied to every winner so far.
Finished first or second last time out.
Rated between 133-139, although this stat could come under pressure this year as the race is now only a 0-140 handicap meaning the winner would have to carry close to top weight where before the maximum weight carried by a winner was 11-1.
Ran at a previous festival in a novice hurdle regardless of finishing postion.
Contenders (using the 1st stat as it has pointed to evey winner so far);
Lake Legend - disappointed in last years Coral Cup but had previously returned from an injury as an improved horse to win 2 competitive handicaps. There is a suspicion that he is better on a flat right handed track but he does fit the profile of an improving chaser that hasn't yet showed his hand to the handicapper.
Some Target - has no previous festival experience but that wouldn't bother me about a Mullins contender. He has decent place form this behind Magnanimity and solid hurdle form behind the progressive Quito De La Rouqe. He won a competitive handicap last time out although that was over 3m 4f and Mullins has suggested that the National Hunt Chase maybe the race for him.
C'est Ca - was a 1st hurdle faller in the Martin Pipe last year but had previously finished 3rd in the MCR hurdle. He has been steadily progressive over fences before gaining a deserved win last time out, although, on the downside Mullins said post race that they had no big plans for him which could mean he won't be taking up this engagement.
The Knoxs - twice a faller, unlucky when 9l clear second time out, before getting off the mark last time out. Ran behind Peddlers Cross last year and led a very good field until hitting 4 out and quickly falling away. Trainer knows how to train one for a race at the festival and he beat RSA fancy and subsequent grade 2 winner, Wymott, last year off level weights.
Rougham - fell on chase debut but has improved in that department since and jumped really well and showed lots of guts to knuckle down and win last time out. Has done most of running on right hand tracks but has shown a tendancy to jump left so he shouldn't be effected by going this way round.
Hollo Ladies - grade 1 winner over hurdles and has looked a typical Ferdy Murphy "work in progress" over fences. Took time to get the hang of things over the larger obstacles, but so had all the previous winners of this race, and although he falls down on the last time out stat you can never rule out a handicapper from this yard because of their last run.
Vino Griego - yet to win over fences, didn't hinder Othermix last year from running well in 2nd at 50/1, and has ran well in a C&D handicap already (didn't jump too well). Ran a blinder in last years Supreme and improved in that race for encountering fast ground so that could well be the case again this year.
Not won more than once over fences and had not won on either of their first 2 starts over fences. Although a new handicap to the festival but the stat has applied to every winner so far.
Finished first or second last time out.
Rated between 133-139, although this stat could come under pressure this year as the race is now only a 0-140 handicap meaning the winner would have to carry close to top weight where before the maximum weight carried by a winner was 11-1.
Ran at a previous festival in a novice hurdle regardless of finishing postion.
Contenders (using the 1st stat as it has pointed to evey winner so far);
Lake Legend - disappointed in last years Coral Cup but had previously returned from an injury as an improved horse to win 2 competitive handicaps. There is a suspicion that he is better on a flat right handed track but he does fit the profile of an improving chaser that hasn't yet showed his hand to the handicapper.
Some Target - has no previous festival experience but that wouldn't bother me about a Mullins contender. He has decent place form this behind Magnanimity and solid hurdle form behind the progressive Quito De La Rouqe. He won a competitive handicap last time out although that was over 3m 4f and Mullins has suggested that the National Hunt Chase maybe the race for him.
C'est Ca - was a 1st hurdle faller in the Martin Pipe last year but had previously finished 3rd in the MCR hurdle. He has been steadily progressive over fences before gaining a deserved win last time out, although, on the downside Mullins said post race that they had no big plans for him which could mean he won't be taking up this engagement.
The Knoxs - twice a faller, unlucky when 9l clear second time out, before getting off the mark last time out. Ran behind Peddlers Cross last year and led a very good field until hitting 4 out and quickly falling away. Trainer knows how to train one for a race at the festival and he beat RSA fancy and subsequent grade 2 winner, Wymott, last year off level weights.
Rougham - fell on chase debut but has improved in that department since and jumped really well and showed lots of guts to knuckle down and win last time out. Has done most of running on right hand tracks but has shown a tendancy to jump left so he shouldn't be effected by going this way round.
Hollo Ladies - grade 1 winner over hurdles and has looked a typical Ferdy Murphy "work in progress" over fences. Took time to get the hang of things over the larger obstacles, but so had all the previous winners of this race, and although he falls down on the last time out stat you can never rule out a handicapper from this yard because of their last run.
Vino Griego - yet to win over fences, didn't hinder Othermix last year from running well in 2nd at 50/1, and has ran well in a C&D handicap already (didn't jump too well). Ran a blinder in last years Supreme and improved in that race for encountering fast ground so that could well be the case again this year.
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