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Cheltenham Festival

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Decky
27 Feb 11 19:02
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Date Joined: 15 Jan 03
| Topic/replies: 586 | Blogger: Decky's blog
Is it possible? The trainer and jockey are holding me back from backing it, the horse has tremendous potential but is been held back by connections.

Any thoughts?

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Replies: 71
By:
evra
When: 27 Feb 11 19:05
cant see it been quick enough myself,but good luck to anyone who's backed it especially after only 1 run this season
By:
horse9
When: 27 Feb 11 19:06
I'm a believer....
By:
Decky
When: 27 Feb 11 19:10
I suppose Binocular looks the likeliest winner, I like Menorah but stats are against him.
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 19:12
decky - how can u like menorah and not dunguib?? baffles me! last yr supreme dunguib rattled 4 of the 8 fences and only got beat 3 lengths aswell as running the long way round, dunguib was clearly the class horse in the race
By:
evra
When: 27 Feb 11 19:14
denman,if u cant jump u wont win races,thats what the game is about,JUMPING
By:
Decky
When: 27 Feb 11 19:15
I just have no faith in Fenton and the jockey. Menorah has more course form and I like Hobbs and Johnson combination. Its a minefield of a race, cant wait for it though.
By:
Howdi
When: 27 Feb 11 19:16
denman that may be the case but menorah has obviously improved a bundle.
By:
horse9
When: 27 Feb 11 19:17
I think they will have worked on Dunguibs jumping, he looked more fluent to me last week, hopefully they've worked on the pilot....
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 19:20
dunguib can jump he was fine last time out, and he has millions more ability than menorah, got a quicker turn of foot and better engine, he needs a fast pace that he'll get in the champ h and i'm confident this horse has speed like no other in the race
By:
inchcailoch
When: 27 Feb 11 19:20
The pilot is no problem he rode to orders last year.
By:
revedesivola
When: 27 Feb 11 19:24
its all well and good jumping ok in a 3 runner race when theres no hurdles flapping back at him and no horses intimidating him along with a blistering pace. and thats just the jumping. brian o connell i suspect has has less than 10 winners this year and i wouldnt want my money riding on him performing in one of cheltenhams biggest races.
By:
Decky
When: 27 Feb 11 19:25
no room for errors in this race
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 19:28
so whats ur idea off the winner reve? if dunguib cant win
By:
Goretski
When: 27 Feb 11 19:32
I would be 99% certain that there's at least 3 others in the race with more speed than Dunguib
By:
evra
When: 27 Feb 11 19:32
well said rev,was just about to post that,i have to laugh at people saying he jumped fine last time out,well he'd be in rite trouble if he struggled to jump in a 3 runner race!
By:
Howdi
When: 27 Feb 11 19:33
get millie chief place laid bet of the festival or one of them.
By:
eric_morris
When: 27 Feb 11 19:33
Dont want to be a party pooper here Happy but isnt it a case of them hiding this horses lack of top class ability that is keeping you all intrigued?

Whenever he has finally been let loose on decent opposition (not very often) he has been outpaced by Solwhit for example, though his Supreme run was very creditable imo there was absolutely no fluke in the result. Menorah had been underhyped and this one overhyped imo Menorah is much the better horse.
By:
revedesivola
When: 27 Feb 11 19:35
i wont be bettin cos i think its between binocular, peddlers and menorah and i def wouldnt back em all. if i had to pick one i would say binocular and i know theres nothing original written here. dunguib was the class horse in lesser races but hes sure as hell not the class horse here
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 19:37
eric if u remeber that race dunguib was fav against hf, and he pulled really hard for the first mile ran massively wiv choke out, that run can be forgiven , if he'd of settle he wud have but up a fight, if this horse jums well he'll have slower horses like peddlers cross etc  in trouble
By:
revedesivola
When: 27 Feb 11 19:39
theres nothing to suggest hes quicker than peddlers imo
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 19:45
did u not see him win in the bumper? he pulled hard in the rear and won by 10l, peddlers best race to date was his win in the neptune over 2 m 5, yeh he beat bino in fifth hurdle but tha was not the true bino, hes only wound up for one race and thats the champ hurdle, i can only see peddler coming in to it if the ground soft side, hes certainly not as quick as dunguib that i do no
By:
eric_morris
When: 27 Feb 11 19:47
I dont think you can forgive any runs when this is the best Champion Hurdle in depth of any I can remember. You dont want horses beating no hopers then losing consistently when raised to top class in this seasons Champion Hurdle when there is evidence to suggest there are several who will make his previous races look even slower than the winner of this CHurdle.
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 19:49
well im happy to take that chance cos imo he has more ability and speed than anything else i can see
By:
Goretski
When: 27 Feb 11 19:56
Denman, Peddlers Cross has a higher speed figure than Dunguib, not to mention about 10 others aswell.
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 20:03
we'll just have to wait and see then, dunguib has more chanc imo at a fast run champ hurdle than peddlers, i think dunguib has been crying out for a race with type of pace like binocular, peddlers needs further will be done for pace by many of these thats just my opinion
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Feb 11 20:08
A lot of people are going to be surprised on CH day.
Last year's Supeme, as it has turned out, was a pretty hot race with the likes of Menorah and Oscar Whisky franking it big time.
And not only was Dunguib odds on to win it but every nuetral race reader had him down as the moral winner.
His form lines are clearly better than Peddler's Cross through Rev de Sivola and Rite of Passage and it is general consesus with those around him that he was verging on being over the top in the Supreme.
That is exactly why they have brought him out this spring to avoid the atrocious ground he raced over last season.
He isn't a late comer because of any problems this has always been the plan.
He acts at Cheltenham and has a massive engine having beaten the Ascot Gold Cup winner absolutely pointless in the Champion Bumper.
Menora and Oscar will have to have improved a lot to beat him this time round and that is not a given but there are enough formlines to put Dunguib in front of this field so scoff at your peril.
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 20:10
finally we get some sense on here, dunguib will retire me if he wins!
By:
Goretski
When: 27 Feb 11 20:12
Brigust you say Menorah and Oscar Whiskey will have to improve to beat Dunguib, my question is should that not read the other way around considering Dunguib has never beaten either of these horses?
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Feb 11 20:12
Denman please replace 'if' with 'when'. Thanx.
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 20:14
goretski did u not watch last year supreme, yeh menorah did win, but dunguib ran awful, ran keen and hit 4 hurdles, his jumping has improved with intense schooling and we all no how quick he is on the flat, bet of the festival or me
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 20:15
when*
By:
TheFormMan
When: 27 Feb 11 20:16
got through the first 5 pages of this thread and was shocked and amazed not to have seen a post from brig1 showering this horse with love,praise and affection [:o] but sure enough it turned up on page 6Grin not for me guys,would let the nagging continue in your head if it were me,but GL
By:
horse9
When: 27 Feb 11 20:19
I'm with Brigust.
Dunguib did finish in front of Oscar Whisky in the Supreme.
Dunguib given the country route was beaten less than 2 lengths in what many thought was a poor Supreme, what Menorah and OW have done since has changed that view.
I think having avoided the bad ground all Winter he will hit Cheltenham fresh and prove to be a champion that his bumper win promised
By:
Goretski
When: 27 Feb 11 20:20
Denman i've watched it alright but on what evidence can you say his jumping has improved? surely not that 3 horse race last week?
By:
NIGHTWALKER
When: 27 Feb 11 20:24
i am of the opinion that dunguib is going to run a massive race , and agree with comments he had one to many races last season on ground he hated and given crap ride ,even though jockey told to race wide because he not a natural jumper.
that would be by concern jumping at pace as binocular jumps like a cat and quickest ive seen since istabraq and he would gain a length at each flight over dunguib
By:
denman85
When: 27 Feb 11 20:24
he jumped better around punchestown, his race was ruined by pulling to hard, im happy to be on him at diff prices from 25 -16's , i think HF has a good chance but if dunguib settles id rather be on him
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Feb 11 20:30
Gor, the clue is in the speed. Lots of horses, Binocular included, jump better at speed. They need a fast pace to show off their jumping ability and, although Dunguib has blundered in his races, none of them were at speed. They were all when the pace was slow. His record of jumping at speed is only equalled by Binocular.
And this race will be fast. I have absolutely no worries about his jumping in this race.
If I have one worry it is where he will be during the race. I believe he must be either in front of or upsides Binocular thoughout at worst. Binocular's best run was in last season's CH where he was gifted a sling shot lead by the 4 pace setters. In all of his other races he has struggled to get by or away from a good horse in front of him. That includes the Supreme and the CH the year before.
By:
evra
When: 27 Feb 11 20:32
i was wondering when brigust would be on telling us yet again how dunguib is the second coming,ffs man give it a rest,when he gets stuffed in the champion what excuses are u likely to use?
By:
Benjy
When: 27 Feb 11 20:33
I'm on board. [;)]

Enough has been said already about the class this horse has but I also think the connections got it wrong last year.

He had too many runs prior to Cheltenham last year on heavy ground, starting back in October and including a run just a month before in a grade 1 on soft ground. I think he was a little 'over the top' by the time they arrived at Cheltenham and then was way over by the time they arrived at Punchestwons (where they clearly shouldn't have run but were so disappointed with the Supreme defeat that they went for it)

This year they intentionally delayed his return and have given him just the one outing prior to the festival. Fenton obviously feels this is the way to get him there in top form and I for one take this as admitting his mistake from last year. I still have faith that he knows what he is doing here though and will get this beast there nice and fresh and in the same form as he did for the bumper.   

One hell of a race though and with so many in with a shout I'll be playing it win only.

GL
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