Cheltenham Festival
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Key Stats;
No winner since 1998 rated higher than 143, although the last few winners have been rated from 141-143 so it maybe unwise to dismiss a horse that is 1-2lb higher than this mark as the standard of the race improves.
Novices have won 3 from last 7 runnings thus turning around what used to be an awful statistic
Top 4 in the betting have a very strong record in the race, won 8 from the last 10 runnings with the favourite beaten by a head (last year) and a short head (2007) when an outsider has won the 2 other runnnings.
Last time out winners have won 75% of the runnings since 2003 from a representation of only 20% of all runners in that time.
Runners that have run well at the Festival before have won 50% of the runnings since 1996.
11yo are 0-34 to even run into a place never mind win going back 13 years.
Paul Nicholls is 0-15 with only Ad Hoc running into a place (twice).
Contenders;
Bensalem - the obvious starting point after his eyecatching run last year, cruising in behind before falling at the tricky 2nd last fence (since been moved). Gets in off the same mark and hasn't run over fences since, could be viewed as both a positive or a negative. Travelled well at Haydock last time over timber but stopped very quickly in the deep ground. Currently 7/1 fav and doesn't look to be much value in the price with just 2 weeks before the race.
Great Endeavour - Falls down the OR stat but on a positive note he is only lightly raced, 11 career starts in total, and obviously enjoys it at Cheltenham, won the Byrne Plate last year and placed here on 2 other runs from only 5 runs in total. Has been well backed in recent weeks, by the same connections of last years well backed fast finishing favourite, The Package. Has been given a nice break to ready him for this run and looks to hold, old nemesis, Sunnyhillboy, similar price, even at the revised weights.
Quinz- Gutsy winner of the Racing Post chase and that race may have taken alot out of him. It was suggested that he would go for the National too so he wouldn't want to ahve another hard race before that run so he could be deemed an unlikely runner. Should he turn up, he has the right kind of profile for the race and although he has no previous festival experience, he has jumped around the track when a respectable 3rd to Time For Rupert in a novice chase.
Others to consider;
Reve De Sivola - Hasn't got his jumping right all season in the top novice chases but might be foolish to dismiss him in a handicap off what will surely turn out to be a lenient mark, 140, once he does get his jumping together. Was a top novice hurdler and has proven festival form. He would be trying this trip for the first time and as his connections view him as a 3miler now that can only be a positive.
Quantitativeeasing - Has not yet been alloted a mark, can't see it being higher than mid 140's, and also has multiple entries so would be hard to recommend until he is confirmed for the race. He was a decent novice hurdler and ran very well in the Coral Cup last year, looking as though a step up may suit and his profile is quite similar to the connections recent winner Wichita Lineman(RIP).
Presenting Forever - Probably should be a last time out winner having hung his chance away when in the clear before being caught by the gallant Midnight Chase over C&D. He travelled and jumped well for a long way in last years National Hunt Chase, only giving way 3 out when not staying the trip and that was a good effort from a 6yo.
Cape Tribulation - Looks nicely weighted off 140 given his higher hurdles mark and he has previous festival form when 5th in an Albert Bartlett, sent off favourite and lively ground given as an excuse, 10l behind Weapons Amnesty. Given Cheltenhams watering policy of wanting to produce good-soft ground on the first day this could enhance his chances and his best runs over fences have come going left handed so his 1/2l defeat to Radium last time out on a right handed track could possibly be marked up.
Irish Challenge - though yet to get official marks a few look to low in the Irish handicap to seriously consider and a few look too high. Of the ones that fall in the middle, Tharawat and Roi de Mee both have the look of being mudlarks although Gordon Elliots runners should always be respected in the UK. The only other runner l could see playing a hand is Chasing Cars who is quite clearly not suited to testing conditions and his demolition of competitive handicap at Punchestowns last year was very impressive. He did run poorly in the RSA last year but he was a 50/1 chance and at a big price l wouldn't be put off as he will be getting his ground once again in a handicap.
No winner since 1998 rated higher than 143, although the last few winners have been rated from 141-143 so it maybe unwise to dismiss a horse that is 1-2lb higher than this mark as the standard of the race improves.
Novices have won 3 from last 7 runnings thus turning around what used to be an awful statistic
Top 4 in the betting have a very strong record in the race, won 8 from the last 10 runnings with the favourite beaten by a head (last year) and a short head (2007) when an outsider has won the 2 other runnnings.
Last time out winners have won 75% of the runnings since 2003 from a representation of only 20% of all runners in that time.
Runners that have run well at the Festival before have won 50% of the runnings since 1996.
11yo are 0-34 to even run into a place never mind win going back 13 years.
Paul Nicholls is 0-15 with only Ad Hoc running into a place (twice).
Contenders;
Bensalem - the obvious starting point after his eyecatching run last year, cruising in behind before falling at the tricky 2nd last fence (since been moved). Gets in off the same mark and hasn't run over fences since, could be viewed as both a positive or a negative. Travelled well at Haydock last time over timber but stopped very quickly in the deep ground. Currently 7/1 fav and doesn't look to be much value in the price with just 2 weeks before the race.
Great Endeavour - Falls down the OR stat but on a positive note he is only lightly raced, 11 career starts in total, and obviously enjoys it at Cheltenham, won the Byrne Plate last year and placed here on 2 other runs from only 5 runs in total. Has been well backed in recent weeks, by the same connections of last years well backed fast finishing favourite, The Package. Has been given a nice break to ready him for this run and looks to hold, old nemesis, Sunnyhillboy, similar price, even at the revised weights.
Quinz- Gutsy winner of the Racing Post chase and that race may have taken alot out of him. It was suggested that he would go for the National too so he wouldn't want to ahve another hard race before that run so he could be deemed an unlikely runner. Should he turn up, he has the right kind of profile for the race and although he has no previous festival experience, he has jumped around the track when a respectable 3rd to Time For Rupert in a novice chase.
Others to consider;
Reve De Sivola - Hasn't got his jumping right all season in the top novice chases but might be foolish to dismiss him in a handicap off what will surely turn out to be a lenient mark, 140, once he does get his jumping together. Was a top novice hurdler and has proven festival form. He would be trying this trip for the first time and as his connections view him as a 3miler now that can only be a positive.
Quantitativeeasing - Has not yet been alloted a mark, can't see it being higher than mid 140's, and also has multiple entries so would be hard to recommend until he is confirmed for the race. He was a decent novice hurdler and ran very well in the Coral Cup last year, looking as though a step up may suit and his profile is quite similar to the connections recent winner Wichita Lineman(RIP).
Presenting Forever - Probably should be a last time out winner having hung his chance away when in the clear before being caught by the gallant Midnight Chase over C&D. He travelled and jumped well for a long way in last years National Hunt Chase, only giving way 3 out when not staying the trip and that was a good effort from a 6yo.
Cape Tribulation - Looks nicely weighted off 140 given his higher hurdles mark and he has previous festival form when 5th in an Albert Bartlett, sent off favourite and lively ground given as an excuse, 10l behind Weapons Amnesty. Given Cheltenhams watering policy of wanting to produce good-soft ground on the first day this could enhance his chances and his best runs over fences have come going left handed so his 1/2l defeat to Radium last time out on a right handed track could possibly be marked up.
Irish Challenge - though yet to get official marks a few look to low in the Irish handicap to seriously consider and a few look too high. Of the ones that fall in the middle, Tharawat and Roi de Mee both have the look of being mudlarks although Gordon Elliots runners should always be respected in the UK. The only other runner l could see playing a hand is Chasing Cars who is quite clearly not suited to testing conditions and his demolition of competitive handicap at Punchestowns last year was very impressive. He did run poorly in the RSA last year but he was a 50/1 chance and at a big price l wouldn't be put off as he will be getting his ground once again in a handicap.
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Nice write up,I`m personally very keen on Presenting Forever,thought that his run last time over 3m 2f just stretched his stamina but in hindsight i wonder if he just got there too soon ,seemed to run on again after Midnight Chase went past him.Think that this race will be perfect for him with hopefully plenty still in contention at the business end,strong travelling ,slick jumping Seven year old with a decent rating off 145 trained by a man who knows how to ready one for the festival.20/1 available with b365 with NRNB.
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Sunnyhillboy for me.
Bensalem and Reve De Sivola can't jump and Great Endeavour's mark is too high for this I believe? |