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Not to disrespect the other live chances in the GC but many will be clamouring over these 2 old warriors and i thought i'd put up an unbiased review of their form and genuine chances in the big race.
Denman-11 yrs old in April -Irish Bred,22 Races
Kauto -11 yrs old in Mar -French Bred,36 Races
So both could be descibed as "JUST 11" so still just at the business end of ageing high class chasers.Though it's safe to say a relatively lightly campaigned Irish 11 yr old would have a few more miles left on the clock compared to an 11yr French. While it is generally accepted that KS has lost a little pace,Denman never really had it to lose.They both enjoy Chelters though there's no doubt that KS jumping CAN come under threat if the pace is on and the ground sticky.
As for the ground KS will be happy on most but wouldnt really want true Cheltnham "soft" Denman while not out of it on good by any means would definitley prefer some juice at good to soft at least.
As for form KS fell last year coming under pressure and after a worklmanlike irish win (grade one and truly soft)he was found to have both bled and have a minor infection after a below par King George.Lets remember though though outpaced he was actually staying on until he blundered the 2nd last.He wouldn't have won but maybe a 7l 2nd(with an infection) to a v talented young horse wouldnt have been so bad.Having said that we could also say he was thrashed by horses he had over 2stone in hand on....
Denman ran a v good GC last year going head to head with Imperial(worthy winner) until fading after the last.He then was sent right handed to Ireland where he came a 6l 4th after pulling,hanging and jumping terribly left,god knows how mcCoy got him round in 4th after that,he must have ran another half mile of pulling and straightening every fence.He then ran v well in the hennessey giving just under 2stone to Daimond Harry and coming a tired 15 L 3rd .A v good performance but i'd like to have seen him a little closer though weight will always eventually tell.
He had a small breathing op (soft pallete)after that as Nicholls felt he was finishing a little tired.Though he always will given his mid race gallop.
Can they Win? Yes i believe either can but it's going to need EVERYTHING to fall into place.KS will need his ground,a perfect round of jumping and Ruby in the plate.More to the point he MUST have retained 95% of his ability and MUST still want it or i fear he'll be pulled up.He'll need the pace to suit and not to stretch his jumping...with Denman,Neptune Collognes and midnight Chase guaranteing a strong gallop this will test both Rubys and the horses ability to tuck in and keep quiet,and hope that he still retains that old change of pace.
For Denman again it MUST all fall right,though i beleive he has a marginally better chance than KS simply because the pace upfront will be strong and if he takes it up down the back straight (he must take it up in order to win no ifs or buts) he can get them all "at it" I think he HAS to force some errors with one of those brutal bursts over 2-3 fences which very suddenly takes lengths out of the field all over the place.I dont think Long Run and DH will handle that though IC and Kauto will have to keep tabs if Denman makes it a war of attrition.Sam Thomas knows when to push the button and he wont need to hold back the same with weight issues like in the Hennessey.
Is Denman capable of going through the pain barrier once more to beat this lot?Very possible,Nicholls has been very bullish about him and I think he genuinely believes he has a very live chance here,he's in very good form at home(which is not something you often hear due to the horses laziness on the gallops) and he'l never get a more"race run to suit" field than this one.
Denman to place at 2.68 i believe is outstanding and anything over 7 to win represents very good value indeed.
As for KS i think it's win or bust but can you ignore 10's to win for one of the finest horses to ever grace the track?
While i think they both are capable of winning Imperial Commander is a worthy fav and should any of these 3 win their place in history is assured.
Denman-11 yrs old in April -Irish Bred,22 Races
Kauto -11 yrs old in Mar -French Bred,36 Races
So both could be descibed as "JUST 11" so still just at the business end of ageing high class chasers.Though it's safe to say a relatively lightly campaigned Irish 11 yr old would have a few more miles left on the clock compared to an 11yr French. While it is generally accepted that KS has lost a little pace,Denman never really had it to lose.They both enjoy Chelters though there's no doubt that KS jumping CAN come under threat if the pace is on and the ground sticky.
As for the ground KS will be happy on most but wouldnt really want true Cheltnham "soft" Denman while not out of it on good by any means would definitley prefer some juice at good to soft at least.
As for form KS fell last year coming under pressure and after a worklmanlike irish win (grade one and truly soft)he was found to have both bled and have a minor infection after a below par King George.Lets remember though though outpaced he was actually staying on until he blundered the 2nd last.He wouldn't have won but maybe a 7l 2nd(with an infection) to a v talented young horse wouldnt have been so bad.Having said that we could also say he was thrashed by horses he had over 2stone in hand on....
Denman ran a v good GC last year going head to head with Imperial(worthy winner) until fading after the last.He then was sent right handed to Ireland where he came a 6l 4th after pulling,hanging and jumping terribly left,god knows how mcCoy got him round in 4th after that,he must have ran another half mile of pulling and straightening every fence.He then ran v well in the hennessey giving just under 2stone to Daimond Harry and coming a tired 15 L 3rd .A v good performance but i'd like to have seen him a little closer though weight will always eventually tell.
He had a small breathing op (soft pallete)after that as Nicholls felt he was finishing a little tired.Though he always will given his mid race gallop.
Can they Win? Yes i believe either can but it's going to need EVERYTHING to fall into place.KS will need his ground,a perfect round of jumping and Ruby in the plate.More to the point he MUST have retained 95% of his ability and MUST still want it or i fear he'll be pulled up.He'll need the pace to suit and not to stretch his jumping...with Denman,Neptune Collognes and midnight Chase guaranteing a strong gallop this will test both Rubys and the horses ability to tuck in and keep quiet,and hope that he still retains that old change of pace.
For Denman again it MUST all fall right,though i beleive he has a marginally better chance than KS simply because the pace upfront will be strong and if he takes it up down the back straight (he must take it up in order to win no ifs or buts) he can get them all "at it" I think he HAS to force some errors with one of those brutal bursts over 2-3 fences which very suddenly takes lengths out of the field all over the place.I dont think Long Run and DH will handle that though IC and Kauto will have to keep tabs if Denman makes it a war of attrition.Sam Thomas knows when to push the button and he wont need to hold back the same with weight issues like in the Hennessey.
Is Denman capable of going through the pain barrier once more to beat this lot?Very possible,Nicholls has been very bullish about him and I think he genuinely believes he has a very live chance here,he's in very good form at home(which is not something you often hear due to the horses laziness on the gallops) and he'l never get a more"race run to suit" field than this one.
Denman to place at 2.68 i believe is outstanding and anything over 7 to win represents very good value indeed.
As for KS i think it's win or bust but can you ignore 10's to win for one of the finest horses to ever grace the track?
While i think they both are capable of winning Imperial Commander is a worthy fav and should any of these 3 win their place in history is assured.
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Interesting write-up BonVivvy again.
Do you know (I do not) which previous Gold Cup winner had most prior career runs, and how many? 36 sounds very, very steep to me. Desert Orchid had quite a few more, but besides him..?
Do you know (I do not) which previous Gold Cup winner had most prior career runs, and how many? 36 sounds very, very steep to me. Desert Orchid had quite a few more, but besides him..?
Wouldnt have thought there would be many anywhere near that mark Mr Carver, cant remember the sixties, was What A Myth well raced???
Considering we had to wait from 71-2003 for a oss to regain the crown i cant see what would come near bar dessie
Considering we had to wait from 71-2003 for a oss to regain the crown i cant see what would come near bar dessie
Considering we had to wait from 71-2003 for a oss to regain the crown i cant see what would come near bar dessie Good point Zilzal..
Not sure about What a Myth. WIll have to try and dig some old books out i think. Hope you are well mate.
Not sure about What a Myth. WIll have to try and dig some old books out i think. Hope you are well mate.
I think The Fellow had about 28 or 29 runs before he won it, mind I don't think he was old, just that it started chasing at the top level as a young horse.
I think Cool Ground might have had 40 odd races before he won. I think he won the Kim Muir 3 or 4 years before the Gold Cup. I suppose what is in KS favour is that he has only been in a small handful of gruelling battles as he has been so far superior in the majority of his runs. The only nagging doubt I have about KS is that the King George was the first time I've seen him beaten when it hasn't really been down to the jumping (ok he battered the 2nd last but was beaten at the time anyway). He didn't jump great but there were no major errors on route to the 2nd last yet he was pretty much stuffed. Was that the decline kicking in or a one off? Been a great horse over the years though and a victory for that or The Tank will see scenes similar to Dawn Run and Dessie.
I think Cool Ground might have had 40 odd races before he won. I think he won the Kim Muir 3 or 4 years before the Gold Cup. I suppose what is in KS favour is that he has only been in a small handful of gruelling battles as he has been so far superior in the majority of his runs. The only nagging doubt I have about KS is that the King George was the first time I've seen him beaten when it hasn't really been down to the jumping (ok he battered the 2nd last but was beaten at the time anyway). He didn't jump great but there were no major errors on route to the 2nd last yet he was pretty much stuffed. Was that the decline kicking in or a one off? Been a great horse over the years though and a victory for that or The Tank will see scenes similar to Dawn Run and Dessie.
Fine thanks RC, looking forward to the best third of the year(Chelt-RA) and the warmer weather(i hope)
Hope life is treating you well
Hope life is treating you well
Cheers Zilzal, yes not too bad thanks. Some warmer weather certainly appreciated! Always enjoy your posts/our chats. Take it easy Mr.
That looks about right Brownes, id forgotten how exposed he was, i just checked up and hes had 30 odd runs before and that only from h/cap chases onwards!!!
good post bonnvivvy and one that gives food for thought , it did look at kempton as though they were going a stride too fast for kauto imo , he just didnt travel as well as he used to in races, he wasnt as good on the eye imo i know paul nicholls said after the race he wasnt right ,but a few days before the race he said kauto is as good as ever or words to that effect ,i think he has lost some of his speed that he used to use to great effect to quicken he has had a lot of races and they must take thier toll. he is still a major player as the gold cup although it will be run at a strong pace he should be able to sit in behind and maybee creep into it if his jumping holds up but whether he has the pace to keep tabs on the younger improovers we will have to wait and see .
denman is more lightly raced but he has been in some battles his gold cup win was a massive effort and would possibly have bottomed a lesser horse .
plus with the heart fibrilating condition ( i wonder if that titanic gold cup effort was a big factor in it .) if denman was to take it up early say 4 out and have a 4-5 lengths lead with the others in trouble rounding the turn can you imagine the roar of the crowd ,it would be some sight as he is a very popular horse the epitome of an old fashioned chaser something the late tim forster would have loved to train ,i liken denman and kauto to boxers denman the big heavyweight powering away taking all that is thrown at him but still pounding away on and on wearing opponents down, and kauto the silky smooth stylish mover easy on the eye fast on his feet , it would be fantastic if one of them could turn back the clock especially for me anyway denman but i fear time may have caught up ,whatever happens lets hope all the horses come back safe and sound
denman is more lightly raced but he has been in some battles his gold cup win was a massive effort and would possibly have bottomed a lesser horse .
plus with the heart fibrilating condition ( i wonder if that titanic gold cup effort was a big factor in it .) if denman was to take it up early say 4 out and have a 4-5 lengths lead with the others in trouble rounding the turn can you imagine the roar of the crowd ,it would be some sight as he is a very popular horse the epitome of an old fashioned chaser something the late tim forster would have loved to train ,i liken denman and kauto to boxers denman the big heavyweight powering away taking all that is thrown at him but still pounding away on and on wearing opponents down, and kauto the silky smooth stylish mover easy on the eye fast on his feet , it would be fantastic if one of them could turn back the clock especially for me anyway denman but i fear time may have caught up ,whatever happens lets hope all the horses come back safe and sound
Foyles.
Good point re: KS as it did look like they were always a tad too quick for him at Kempers,quite how his cold and minor bleed affected the run is what would really matter as true barometer.
I feel the the bit part players like Neptune Collognes(high class in his own right with a 3rd and 4th in the GC) and midnight chase could have a major say in how the race pans out.These 2 like it up front and pretty quick and if ever there was a race no prisoners will be taken i believe this will it.
One thing we will know for sure,if either KS or Denman are on the slide it will be cruelly exposed here.
Good point re: KS as it did look like they were always a tad too quick for him at Kempers,quite how his cold and minor bleed affected the run is what would really matter as true barometer.
I feel the the bit part players like Neptune Collognes(high class in his own right with a 3rd and 4th in the GC) and midnight chase could have a major say in how the race pans out.These 2 like it up front and pretty quick and if ever there was a race no prisoners will be taken i believe this will it.
One thing we will know for sure,if either KS or Denman are on the slide it will be cruelly exposed here.
A very fair write up, Bonvivvy... very little to add, really, except to say a couple of observations:
Neither KS nor Denman benefited from certain rides they received in the last two years, shall we say... read my lips: some horese are RHYTHM horses and do not respond to being bullied or hassled at and between every fence...!!
I think KS has nothing left to prove, to be honest... has won
two gold cups,
four king georges,
two betfairs,
two tingle creeks,
over distances from 2 miles to 3 miles 2...
on ground from bottomless to good to firm
14 group ones
Apart from 3rd last time at Kempton he has never been lower than second in any race Eng/Ire
Of his 25 UK/Ire races, the last 23 have been group 2 or group 1
NEED I GO ON??
Denman has won
two henneseys,
a lexus,
an aon
a gold cup,
a sun alliance,
a million in prize money,
been placed in 19/22 races, 16 of which were group races
.. there is something left to come there and if he gets another couple of big group ones or another gold cup he will finally get the respect he deserves...
Sam Thomas is the one to do it and your assessment seems to be to be absolutely spot on. Where McCoy went wrong last year, and to be fair the horse was still on the way back from a bad heart etc - but where Sam Thomas went right, shall we say, was taking it up and running the b'Jesus out of them the year he won... I still think Denman was done for pace up the hill last year and a different ride MIGHT have brought a different result... this year they are much happier with him, apparently, and all is in place for the greatest battle of all
However good Imperial Commander turns out to be, and he looks a horse still improving and in the making, and this year will tell us a lot... he still has a LONG way to go, even to be talked of in the same breath as the two Nicholls horses, let alone considered their equal... He has won eight races in the UK, six races at Cheltenham - his local track... you might say... but his 8/18 is not particularly impressive... he is half a dozen big wins away from Denman's place in history, and a couple of Gold Cups if not three to be equal to Kauto Star it may take, since that's his course... and probably his distance... He doesn't have many miles on the clock, though, so every reason to suggest he can do the former, although my heart and head tell me he simply isn't ever going to be in Kauto's supreme athlete league nor Denman's brute force playground
Neither KS nor Denman benefited from certain rides they received in the last two years, shall we say... read my lips: some horese are RHYTHM horses and do not respond to being bullied or hassled at and between every fence...!!
I think KS has nothing left to prove, to be honest... has won
two gold cups,
four king georges,
two betfairs,
two tingle creeks,
over distances from 2 miles to 3 miles 2...
on ground from bottomless to good to firm
14 group ones
Apart from 3rd last time at Kempton he has never been lower than second in any race Eng/Ire
Of his 25 UK/Ire races, the last 23 have been group 2 or group 1
NEED I GO ON??
Denman has won
two henneseys,
a lexus,
an aon
a gold cup,
a sun alliance,
a million in prize money,
been placed in 19/22 races, 16 of which were group races
.. there is something left to come there and if he gets another couple of big group ones or another gold cup he will finally get the respect he deserves...
Sam Thomas is the one to do it and your assessment seems to be to be absolutely spot on. Where McCoy went wrong last year, and to be fair the horse was still on the way back from a bad heart etc - but where Sam Thomas went right, shall we say, was taking it up and running the b'Jesus out of them the year he won... I still think Denman was done for pace up the hill last year and a different ride MIGHT have brought a different result... this year they are much happier with him, apparently, and all is in place for the greatest battle of all
However good Imperial Commander turns out to be, and he looks a horse still improving and in the making, and this year will tell us a lot... he still has a LONG way to go, even to be talked of in the same breath as the two Nicholls horses, let alone considered their equal... He has won eight races in the UK, six races at Cheltenham - his local track... you might say... but his 8/18 is not particularly impressive... he is half a dozen big wins away from Denman's place in history, and a couple of Gold Cups if not three to be equal to Kauto Star it may take, since that's his course... and probably his distance... He doesn't have many miles on the clock, though, so every reason to suggest he can do the former, although my heart and head tell me he simply isn't ever going to be in Kauto's supreme athlete league nor Denman's brute force playground
* A couple of qualifications... I should add "completed" of course, to Kauto's record: he did fall a cpl of times... And he's never won on g/f...
Good points Somerset.
Not a lot to add apart from the rubber stamping that as yet we have no proof whatsoever that either horse is in decline.When any horse gets to 9 and over and has an off day the calls for retirement are out.KS has seen this all before as has Denman after his heart op and poor condition prior to KS great 2009 win.Though for Denman to run 2nd that year after his physical problems was truly some performance.
With the ground conditions now looking very much like "good"(though really true good-soft is surely the ground the racecource will aspire to for all concerned) it does perhaps very slightly push KS's case(though lets not forget he handles soft perfectly ok)IC can run on anything.
Of the 3 big guns they really do need to be 100% and nothing less to triumph,any errors will be cruelly exposed in this field and the likely pace will be lung bursting.Bizzarely i've seen people quote "the weakness and lack of depth" to the GC field!! truly astonishing that we have 2 of the greatest horses of all time up agaisnt a previous younger winner and some high talented youngsters...for me this could be the strongest field assembled(in GC's) for a many a year.
Not a lot to add apart from the rubber stamping that as yet we have no proof whatsoever that either horse is in decline.When any horse gets to 9 and over and has an off day the calls for retirement are out.KS has seen this all before as has Denman after his heart op and poor condition prior to KS great 2009 win.Though for Denman to run 2nd that year after his physical problems was truly some performance.
With the ground conditions now looking very much like "good"(though really true good-soft is surely the ground the racecource will aspire to for all concerned) it does perhaps very slightly push KS's case(though lets not forget he handles soft perfectly ok)IC can run on anything.
Of the 3 big guns they really do need to be 100% and nothing less to triumph,any errors will be cruelly exposed in this field and the likely pace will be lung bursting.Bizzarely i've seen people quote "the weakness and lack of depth" to the GC field!! truly astonishing that we have 2 of the greatest horses of all time up agaisnt a previous younger winner and some high talented youngsters...for me this could be the strongest field assembled(in GC's) for a many a year.
I really do think the 11/10 - 6/5 on offer for either Imperial, Denman or Kauto to win is a great bet. You get to cheer on the old brigade, it isn't the greatest renewal and come gold cup day I think Denman and Kauto could be favourites. You won't get that price on the day imo
BonVivvy. If you think there is no proof that Kauto or Denman is in decline then i am afraid that you are watching different races to everyone else. As much as i love both Kauto and Denman there comes a time when you have to stop making excuses and accept the facts in front of you.
In regards to Kauto: He was well beaten when falling in last years GC. He would have finished a well beaten third at best behind IC and Denman. On his reappearance this season he laboured to beat Sizing Europe and China Rock. Both of whom have been well beaten since. Then at Kempton he was firmly put in his place by Long Run. Yes he may have bled but he would have had to run a career best to have beaten Long Run based on the time clocked. Is this the profile of a horse that has held his form. No chance.
Denman was also well beaten in last years GC. Then at Punchestown he was beaten by planet of Sound, a horse rated two stone below him. He ran well in the Hennessey but again showed signs of regression when well beaten by Diamond Harry. Yes he was giving the best part of 2st but he was beaten nearly 20 lengths by a horse rated in the 150`s. The facts are there. Both Denman and Kauto have regressed in the past 12 months but the chances are both will be well supported in the run up to the GC due to sentimental money. I will be laying both to the max is both have little chance of beating IC never mind the young pretenders like Long Run or Diamond Harry.
In regards to Kauto: He was well beaten when falling in last years GC. He would have finished a well beaten third at best behind IC and Denman. On his reappearance this season he laboured to beat Sizing Europe and China Rock. Both of whom have been well beaten since. Then at Kempton he was firmly put in his place by Long Run. Yes he may have bled but he would have had to run a career best to have beaten Long Run based on the time clocked. Is this the profile of a horse that has held his form. No chance.
Denman was also well beaten in last years GC. Then at Punchestown he was beaten by planet of Sound, a horse rated two stone below him. He ran well in the Hennessey but again showed signs of regression when well beaten by Diamond Harry. Yes he was giving the best part of 2st but he was beaten nearly 20 lengths by a horse rated in the 150`s. The facts are there. Both Denman and Kauto have regressed in the past 12 months but the chances are both will be well supported in the run up to the GC due to sentimental money. I will be laying both to the max is both have little chance of beating IC never mind the young pretenders like Long Run or Diamond Harry.
I agree about King Kauto, but I just have a battler's fancy for The Tank running a massive race and eyeballing the prancing young pretender 2 out(whoever that may be), who'll be made to keep finding, whose heart will be tested by a horse who has confounded heart-based conjecture all his career...beer talking but I'd love to see Denman there or thereabouts with the hill looming!
The problem with Denman is he only has 2 gears. He cruises then goes straight into top gear.
If that top gear hasn't shaken off everything by the time they jump the last then he's going to lose because he simply won't find anything more than he's already given.
It wouldn't matter if it's Kauto, Long Run, Pandorman Imperial Commander if any of them are within striking distance they will outrun him up the hill.
Of course he could win if he can go early and force others like Long Run and Kauto to make mistakes but I personally don't bet on a wing and a prayer that something else runs below par.
Kauto Star? If he puts in a clear round could he win? Daftest question ever. Kauto could win by a fence and no one would be surprised.
Both are still capable of winning but Kauto is the more likely IMO. A trouble free round and he'll make them all go.
If that top gear hasn't shaken off everything by the time they jump the last then he's going to lose because he simply won't find anything more than he's already given.
It wouldn't matter if it's Kauto, Long Run, Pandorman Imperial Commander if any of them are within striking distance they will outrun him up the hill.
Of course he could win if he can go early and force others like Long Run and Kauto to make mistakes but I personally don't bet on a wing and a prayer that something else runs below par.
Kauto Star? If he puts in a clear round could he win? Daftest question ever. Kauto could win by a fence and no one would be surprised.
Both are still capable of winning but Kauto is the more likely IMO. A trouble free round and he'll make them all go.
Kauto dosn't appear to be the same horse since last KG win...maybe not surprising after such a performance...running to RP rating of 192. Often hear of horses being 'bottomed'(and never being the same again) after having a hard race against a champion. Looks to me that Kauto may have 'bottomed' himself with that run!
Thefarmer
With regard to your reading of Denmans last 2 races last year I can only presume your're reading the races completely differently to myself.
At Cheltnam he was head to head with IC until the last fence when IC went on to win well by 7L(Denmans prep was again problematic,id say he ran right to his rating and form) His irish race had to be seen to be beleived he went right handed and jumped left all the way round,he went wide countless times and the corrections and pullign McCoy had to deal with were quite something.That he brought the horse home 6l 4th was quite an achievement for both horse and jockey.
As for his Hennessey i thought he could of been a little closer but the weight caught him especially after the last fence when he tired quite badly.One of the reasons nichols gave him the soft palete op though as he was struggling a little to actually finish races.Though technically he actually exceeded his rating.
I don't personally therefore see any decline in Denman thus far,he never had pace to lose and appears fresh and still very willing.he's only just 11 in March and has only 22 races on the clock.
As for KS he did indeed run a poor GC last year,though he won his grade 1 in Ireland in very soggy ground and had he not crashed through the 2nd last he may have been a far closer 2nd as he was staying on no doubt about it.How much his bleed and cold affected him i don't know.
If put on the spot there is indeed pointers which could herald KS's decline but no more than the 2008 form.
If either are on the decline they will indeed be cruelly exposed here,it's not impossible by any means at all and i feel the current odds on all the main market leaders are about right to be fair with IC still a very decent fav.
With regard to your reading of Denmans last 2 races last year I can only presume your're reading the races completely differently to myself.
At Cheltnam he was head to head with IC until the last fence when IC went on to win well by 7L(Denmans prep was again problematic,id say he ran right to his rating and form) His irish race had to be seen to be beleived he went right handed and jumped left all the way round,he went wide countless times and the corrections and pullign McCoy had to deal with were quite something.That he brought the horse home 6l 4th was quite an achievement for both horse and jockey.
As for his Hennessey i thought he could of been a little closer but the weight caught him especially after the last fence when he tired quite badly.One of the reasons nichols gave him the soft palete op though as he was struggling a little to actually finish races.Though technically he actually exceeded his rating.
I don't personally therefore see any decline in Denman thus far,he never had pace to lose and appears fresh and still very willing.he's only just 11 in March and has only 22 races on the clock.
As for KS he did indeed run a poor GC last year,though he won his grade 1 in Ireland in very soggy ground and had he not crashed through the 2nd last he may have been a far closer 2nd as he was staying on no doubt about it.How much his bleed and cold affected him i don't know.
If put on the spot there is indeed pointers which could herald KS's decline but no more than the 2008 form.
If either are on the decline they will indeed be cruelly exposed here,it's not impossible by any means at all and i feel the current odds on all the main market leaders are about right to be fair with IC still a very decent fav.
A really good discussion but with the doubts expressed over the front 3 and their relative short prices in the betting, regular punters must be looking for a couple of outsiders in this race.
cant decide on denman or kauto scarf. loved the tank from day one love it if he won it feck money he is a legend
Bonvivvy
I think we will have to agree to disagree with regards to Denman. It would be great for the sport if he could come back and regain the crown but i just dont see it. The breathing op looks like a final roll of the dice by Nicholls. With Diamond Harry now out of the race it looks between the four market principles but i think Kauto and Denman are playing for second spot if IC puts in a clear round.
I think we will have to agree to disagree with regards to Denman. It would be great for the sport if he could come back and regain the crown but i just dont see it. The breathing op looks like a final roll of the dice by Nicholls. With Diamond Harry now out of the race it looks between the four market principles but i think Kauto and Denman are playing for second spot if IC puts in a clear round.
My view on this is Midnight Chase will go out in front, Neptune just behind, Denman next with Kauto another couple back from that. Long Run's only chance (and I have backed him at 34s on here) is if he can travel well somewhere near to the pace. He got beat in the RSA and Paddy Power as he tried to come from too far back and make ground up, jockey bottled it a little (although he has learnt now....just watch him stand up on the horse at some fences when he gets in too close in previous races). Denmans best chance will be to turn on the pressure and gallop from just after the past the stands the second time. If he can keep the gallop up, nothing will live with him, but I fear he will be spent turning for home and effectively tie up coming about 5/6 (nothing against him as he is my fav horse and would love to see him win, but just can't see it)
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