what horse represents the worst value in the CH iyo?

Think he was something like 33's after Christmas, then Pricewise or some influential tipster singled him out and the price collapsed.

agree,awful price based on nothing achieved

Mille Chief is the worst value of the festival

glad im not the only one who thinks this,
ye that would partly explain his price roger,but anyone willing to back this horse at 10/1 should really give this game up!

Can I throw Dunguib into this!? 20's available is short enough, but Paddy Power and Boylesport offering 14's about a horse we haven't seen all season is ridiculous!!

i know im going to get stick for this but for me binocular is bad value i think he should be bigger than 7/2.... my reasons? did he just beat stayers and horses that were not as  good as 1st thought in ..champion. kyber k.zaynar ,celest halo,starluck ect  hardly world beaters over 2m and what has he beat this season ? not saying he wont win but hes not value at the prices imo

agree

He's looking a shaky fav isn't he. All depends on how much stock you put in his win in last years champion.

By some huge distance Peddlars Cross. Absolutely shocking form and should be trading around the 40s mark for me. The dumb the the glum on here seem to get impressed by a bunch of 1s in the form; they look beyond what it has beaten and how it has beaten them. Place lay of the meeting.

I agree, where has Peddlars shown the speed to win a CH on decent ground? Binocular and Hurricane have shown they have it and Menorah showed it last time out and looked very impressive when he quickened up. I just cannot have peddlars at a similar price to these 3.

the absolute worst value is Khyber Kim. I speak as someone who was richly rewarded by him last season and almost cried when he didn't beat Binocular.

But I'm sorry to say, he's gone.

Bobs Worth my nomination - Cannot for the life of me believe he streets better than Minella Class for a start.
Also do not rate that last race form literally at Cheltenham as i am convinced Backspin(fav) didn't run its race.
Throw in the challenge from Ireland ,  bookies got it wrong pricing this fellow up.

how can you say kyber has gone after 1 run this year?

I followed Khyber after he won a novice hurdle at Newbury. He came home like Hawk Wing that day. I lost faith in the run up to the '09-'10 season. More fool me.

Hurricane Fly is the worst value in the CH market. He's the one, if any, that will not know what hits him at Cheltenham. He may be capable but he has the most questions to answer imo.

Peddlers Cross strolled past Binocular when they met.

Sageform, I don't massively fancy the chances of Binocular but it was the Autumn version of Binocular that PC had to be ridden flat out to get the better of; about 2 stone below what is required....and that's being generous.

Binocular easily unless you judge him off one run and forget the rest!

Sublimity sauntered past binocular in last seasons fighting fifth. Can't take his running from that race to be anything serious

I agree with Foyleswar and Digger1.

Just because Binocular left his previous form well behind him when winning at Cheltenham last year does not necessarily mean he will do it again. Better race this year, relatively unimpressive build-up and plenty of other horses that could win makes 3-1 to 7-1 a poor price in my eyes.

i believe hurricane fly is worst value , cheltenham is prob the course in uk were track form is huge, getting up that hill is just not suited for some horses stamina, and hurricane fly altho he travels like a dream i think his stamina is in question

and on binocular , i dont know will he win but one thing is for sure they have followed the same route with binocular last year getting him just wound up for the race in march, you literally cannot judge him on previous form you forget you are dealing with a horse from the greatest punter of our time and everything he is aiming at is to punt this horse on the day just like last year wen he was pulled out of the race and was backed from 1,000/1 down

cant belive the bookies are still dangling 12s for millie after today surely 20s aftewr that effort

think jp would be flattered to be called the gretaest punter of our time to be fair.

Also, I don't think JP has lined Binocular up to be punted on the day! I think he would rather be going to the Festival with a 6-4 chance having seen Binocular win each of his races this year on the bridle.

Surely winning a Grade 1 against an Aintree Hurdle winner over 20f proves Hurricane Fly's stamina?

The fascinating thing about Binocular is that you have to disregard his runs this season, as you had to last season, in the belief that he'll turn up on the day.

In a sense he's like Quevega - who only appears at the Festival and wins. But what form student would pick Quevega to win the mares race? yet I reckon she'll go off even money fap.

To all those who crab Peddler's Cross - Donald McCain is way more excited about him than Ballabriggs, even though he knows Ballabriggs will win the National.

People forget about Binoculars 3rd behind Punjabi and Celestial Halo in the 2009 Champion, is it possible the 2010 renewal was not as good as it looked at the time?

and hurricane fly altho he travels like a dream i think his stamina is in question

You do realise he's won twice over 2m4f

hes won once over 2m 4 beating solwhit who he shud beat no matter whether its 2m or 2m4 if hes a champion contender, i said i think his stamina is in question its what iu think, i dont think he is as tough a horse as the likes of binocular or peddlers cross

You realise he's had 4 battling finishes and won them all, he's a very game horse. No doubt about his toughness.

For example binocular has never won any battle finish he's had so it's very odd you consider his tougher than hurricane fly.

I think you just don't like the horse, which is fair enough, but stamina and toughness are things he has shown on more than one occasion.

I would rate HF'S chances better on easy ground though, only because of the injuries he's had, if it did come up as fast as last year id be worried if id backed him as i wouldnt know how he'd stand up to the undulations on the ground.

cv i presume u have him backed and im not saying he doesnt have the class to win this race, hes just not for me and for me is worst value at the price , given uve had the hit of media luz today i wont annoy u further by arguing with you

worst value is Mille Chief 'cos he's the highest in the market that I can't see winning (not usually dogmatic about a horses chances). I'm not overly enamoured with Oscar Whisky either.

Those battling finishes, could you name the 1-2-3 please.

after mille chiefs performance today i honestly cannot believe hes available at 11s,25s/33s imo and thats been kind

I'm surprised Dunguib hasn't been mentioned.

?

hurricane fly/ is terrible value / and if ypu are a layer you must get him/ all hius form is  against one horse solwhit/   and that horse was thrashed in the champion last year, cant win a champion hurdle.

hurricaine fly hasnt come off the snatch against this one horse all season.
If your talking that way then..Menorah represents the worst value for me! What decent sorts has he beaten??

Menorah has invaluable experience at cheltenham,this must be a major plus for anyone considering the question of weighing up the present state of the market.

As some have said before Hurrican Fly is the worst value bet of the festival for me. Consistently beating Solwhit by an average of a couple of lengths mostly on softish ground in small fields, never having raced in England let alone Cheltenham make the price a joke.

If you think the Hurricane Fly form is solid then here is the answer for you........

Back Dunguib who on todays reappearance with Luska Lad is a couple of pounds better than H Fly. O know it's tough to take form like that literally but at their respective prices it is far better value. I wont be doing either because I think Irish 2m ish hurdle form stinks.

I can't believe I'm gonna say this but I just backed Dunguib ew at 14s NRNB.

I just think it will be much shorter than 14s on the day. I've never backed the horse and I still cant believe I've done it but I've started a thread on why and can see people backing it heavily on the day.

All of these posts about bad value and Menorah is not listed once!! Seems to me that speaks volumes? Just rock solid form for Menorah wherever you look......and Cheltenham form as well, best bet of the meeting for me!

So just to clear things up.

A supreme runner up behind a future arkle winner, who then was placed at 5 in a champion hurdle beating the previous winner and then won the champion hurdle easily the next season is a shaky favourite ???

If you are judging bino on his run at newbury against peddlers cross then you really ought to take up a different sport.

you must of been the lucky one who got paid out on captain cee bee winning last years arkle

but agree with you 100%

he is the one with the least amount of cons going into the race

unlike some on here i think his prep has gone extremely well this season

travelled like the winner at newbury and blew up
won his mid-season target with ease and jumped beautifully
and then won his ch prep

all systems go

McCoy did not whip bino once at newbury and held him up.

Plus their were not many recorded bets on bino that day, a bit like gmooh who has had not had any big recorded bets against his name this season.

/

bothys run at newbury showed how good a performance menorah put up/ great course form. can  see hurricane fly going well about 2 out but will find nothing  /  a  place lay for me. dont rule out some late excuse from the hurricane fly camp, meaning he as to miss cheltenham.

Brownes Gazette would have won Joined: 10 Jul 07
Replies: 280 19 Feb 11 17:49   
By some huge distance Peddlars Cross. Absolutely shocking form and should be trading around the 40s mark for me. The dumb the the glum on here seem to get impressed by a bunch of 1s in the form; they look beyond what it has beaten and how it has beaten them. Place lay of the meeting.



i realise its all about opinions,but that post above,dear oh dear!!

its how ne beats them that makes me think he has a real good chance.he aint a flashy speedster as such(nor was hardy),but what he is is a genuine racehorse that never stops finding for his jockey.he does have speed,otherwise he would not beat Starluck with that ones favoured conditions,but most of all he thrives on being told to do his stuff,the way his jockey gets after him is what he responds to.mark my words this will be one tough horse to beat,no doubt.

any chance of 40's??
























could be looking at one very poor punter!!

I think Bud has hit the nail on the head with Peddlars.The great thing about this years race is that you can take a positive stance on all of those in the first half dozen in the market in some shape or form aswell as being able to detect any potential weak points in comparision with the others.Race of the festival without a doubt

cruise crabs hurricane fly then goes an backs dunguib

^^^^

To be honest I'm still in shock myself. But if you read my thread on it I just think it is value at 14s. When I posted originally it was the first time I'd seriously considered it and then I spent the next 2 hours looking at the form again and watching the supreme and Saturday's race back and decided that it was worth a few quid from a value perspective. At least Dunguib has proved he can handle Chelts twice unlike H Fly and I believe he will be shorter on the day, thats enough for me. He jumped the last way better than GMOOH and Menorah in last years supreme and I think they were so worried about giving it a clean round of jumping last year that they cost it the race going wide the whole way around.

As I said on my thread, I'm no Dunguib fan and I've never backed the horse in my life but to me anyway it seems to be decent value at 14s ew. I can thoroughly understand why people may think I'm mad but we'll see. The top 4 in the betting other than maybe Binocular look poor value to me, hence me backing Dunguib now. I will still pick one of the main contenders to back win only on the day.

Well said cruise.
Almost word for word what I have been saying for months. I have watched all of Dunguib's races and been backing him since last year.

So many people forgive Binocular for losing his first Champion Hurdle but are not able to forgive Dunguib for losing the Supreme.

Trainers and jockeys are still learning about their horses and I think Fenton has got it just right this time by limiting his runs and aiming at the CH.

Last year in the Supreme he was 4/5 to beat Menorah and Oscar Whisky and the vast majority think he should have won that day. He was even made favourite to beat Hurricane Fly next time out.
Compare that run with Binoculars first CH then his improvement with experience and his easy win in his second CH.
If the real Dunguib turns up at Cheltenham and, as expected, improves on his Supreme form we are in for a real treat. 
It is not too late to get on. You know you should.

By: This user is offline. godlovesyou
Date Joined: 27 Apr 08 Add contact | Send message When: 19 Feb 11 18:31

Hurricane Fly is the worst value in the CH market. He's the one, if any, that will not know what hits him at Cheltenham. He may be capable but he has the most questions to answer imo.

Great reply FormMan.....

I wonder how Solwhit would get on in the CH and whether being lengths or so better is enough. I really wonder how Hurrican Fly will handle Chelts, he could be awesome and hose up but it's quite a big if against Binocular, Menorah, Peddlars Cross, Dunguib etc etc with their proven course form.

missed out "a few" before the worf lengths above.

lol word

I could do this all m[;)]ight

Bud......like I say, PC has absolutely no chance (or more accurately for me, about a 1 in 40 chance) of winning this year's CH. As I'm a charitable guy, I'll let you have £50 at 40/1 with me.I'll be at the meeting all of the week, in the Betfair tent Thursday and Friday. If you are there then have a word with one of the BF account managers and they'll point me out. If you aren't going you can still contact them and they will email me to ask for my permission to give you my contact details. If you'd like to take me up on my exceptional offer please do this. If I'm wrong then another couple of grand won't hurt too much; when I'm right I'll simply accept you bowing to my superior knowledge.

Menorah is the worst value for me and is my lay of the festival. He may have not done alot wrong all season. but i do not like his form lines. Hes beat nothing, He hasnt run since december and most of all, supreme novice hurdle winners do not win champion hurdles the following year its not a stat/trend...its a fact!
Anyone remember go native...looked bomb proof this time last year. Menorah has same profile...the rest is history.

Isn't this becoming 'a who is likely/unlikely to win' thread. What has happened to the focus on 'value'?

Binocular would marginally be my pick to win the race, but I have been struggling to see any value in his price for most of the season. I can see a certain amount of value in KK's price on here, though I would still only have him fifth or sixth favourite for the race.

Its all about the ground for me, completely different bets, or even a no bet, depending on the Supreme time(if it looks to be a true run race

3.49-3.55 Thousand stars/Clerks Choice ew

3.56-4.05 Hum and Ha, be undecided, no bet

Over 4.05 Peddlars/Dunguib/HF com

Its kind of the same/difference aka.

browns im at cheltenham all week and would love some of the 40/1 for £50 on peddlers cross

if you agree then either pm me or reply to know we have a bet and i'll see you thursday to either pay you out or be paid out...but i wont bow to you infront of arkle(my prefered meeting place)..i'll get you a pint eitherway for being a good sport though.

well.looks like you got your bet there Brownes,good luck!!

im happy enough with my opinion and if iam wrong then fair enough,but i will get no pleasure in seeing you lose a lot of money,one bet at 40 is enough.I am mightily tempted though.
End of the day we dont really need to start chucking silly money and offering silly bets just to prove a point.Lets just see what happens.

Bud.....fair enough fella. Tell you what though if you fancy a sporting one. How about an even money match bet Mille Chief vrs PC.

Gutfeeling.... you are on sir! I'm there all week too, just in the tent on the last 2 days. How about a pint before the Supreme Novices?

Perennial discussion I suppose, Seary. Some think the two things are essentially the same, some think they need to be separated out. At the very least though, as the original poster asked about 'worst value', there ought to be some focus on price in relation to the views people are expressing about value or it just becomes another 'I think this wins, I think this can't win' thread, imo. Nothing wrong with that type of thread, but it is not a discussion about value as such, or at least it becomes only very indirectly a discussion about value if price and some attempt to give a statistical value to a horse's chances are not considered.

If you look at Brownes Gazette's contribution, he has at least (bit tongue in cheek possibly) given a price of 40/1 at which he thinks PC should be trading in order to represent fair value. You write that Menorah is poor value. I could probably agree with that point. But you don't say at what price the horse should be trading, in your view. No disrespect, but I have heard all the arguments about why Menorah is unlikely to win the CH many times. As this is a thread about 'worst value', I was hoping to read the views of others about what price they think the different horses should be trading at in order to represent fair value. Is Menorah really a 10/1 or a 20/1 shot, or is he  so without a chance in the race he is not even worth pricing up? And if he is only, say, a 20/1 shot in your estimation, then why do you think the market has got his price so wrong currently? It is interesting to have people's views on those kind of issues, alongside opinions about who will win/won't win which are well covered already on the other CH threads.

What an utterly useless thread. The only thing it's good for is to see how many have some humility and will post "I was wrong" if the horse they ridiculed wins or goes very close.

I believe Binocular is too short in an open year and considering how it has looked so far this sason. While last year was interrupted for him and some urgent phtsio work got him spot on for the day I wonder whether they can get him so sharp this year - around 7/2 at the moment I'd take him on as I fancy one of the improvers to be better on the day.

My tissue

Binocular 7/2
Hurricane Fly 7/2
Dunguib 7/1
Menorah 8/1
Mille Cheif 12/1
Oscar Whiskey 12/1
Peddlars Cross 16/1 (agree with Brownes that this one easily the worst value in the race)
25-1 Bar

Mischief

As has already been posted - if you seriously have a view that PC is so far wrong in the current market I presume you've supported the view with an aggressive lay strategy..

browns.

thanks for the quick reply,normally met a few friends by arkle at 12-30/1 o'clock everyday so if you are there on the tuesday a quick pint before racing sounds like a fine idea,i'll be the man in the sealskinz beanie hat and a roll up hanging into my racecard...if required i'll send over my mobile number.

best wishes and good luck.

Binocular represents the worse value in the Champion Hurdle. He was brilliant last year but the 7/2 on offer for this years race is a joke. The horse has done nothing to impress me this season. He might come good come March but that might not even be good enough. There are a good 6 horses in the race with a great chance and bookmakers should be going 5/1 the field.

Gutfeeling....drop me a line at dave.dickson@sourceit-consulting.co.uk and we'll hook up.

menorah has proven course form.proven season form.is with a good trainer.and a good jockey..his price of 5/1 represents his chance  imo..maybe even better than a 5/1 chance.the acceleration he showed in his last race was very impressive to my eye..the down side is that they were 2 novices..none the less it was visually impressive..

Personally think Binocular should be much shorter and so should Hurricane Fly. Rewind the tape to the CH last year and tell me what horse could actually do that. I mean you are all saying can he repeeat it but he has run better every year he has reappeared at the festival. Hurricane Fly on the other hand has always had a superstar labled accross his forehead and this year he has finally put it all together and will hopefully get over in one piece. Not writing any of them off but for me.

Binocular 2/1
Hurricane Fly 7/2
Menorah 13/2
Peddlers cross 8/1
Mille Chief 12/1
Oscar Whisky 14/1
Dunguib 18/1
Khyber 20/1 BAR

I dont think that BOTH Hurricane Fly and Binocular can run a big race, one of them will depending on the ground

imo, of course

By: This user is offline. CVByrne Date Joined: 14 Mar 06
Add contact | Send message When: 21 Feb 11 11:03

What an utterly useless thread. The only thing it's good for is to see how many have some humility and will post "I was wrong" if the horse they ridiculed wins or goes very close.

You are right CV.

However some people are replying to the OPs question and assesing the prices of the runners. Saying I think H Fly is poor value is different to saying it has no chance of winning or placing. Some people on here are posting on here about their opinions of a horses price, others are saying thigs like X horse has no chance of winning because of Y.

If we all had the same opinion on what is a value bet I'm not sure betting exchanges would exsist.

.

You dont fancy another €50 @ 40's on peddlers brown's do you?

Hi Goretski. I've already given it to one of the guys. I'll stand you for £25 at 40s if you like.

Just had a quick glance through this thread. Some people believe Fly won't stay? And won't get up the hil? Give your head a shake. If he doesn't win it's because he wasn't good enough on the day. He may well improve for the course.

Rhinestone....agreed. Can't see why the trip would be an issue for a horse that has won over 2.5 as a 4yo and always finishes its races. Might question the form as it has beaten the same horse time and again (no fault of its own obviously). My concern about it is that I believe it just seems to jump out to the right a little, in a bigger field and at a faster pace this just may be an issue.

€25 sounds fair browns

PM me and we'll make arrangements.

Send you a message brownes.

Cheers Goretski.....i've replied.