French Opera QM Chase

been chatting about this on the normal forum was going to put up a thread tomorrow about it. Heres what was said last night:

abbott Joined: 04 Nov 02
Replies: 917 18 Feb 11 21:57   


What its worth I think he is smashing value at 25s nrnb with lads and have backed him tonight

Tavaris Jackson Joined: 23 Nov 06
Replies: 667 18 Feb 11 22:10   


He couldn't win the Grand Annual last year 

GT Joined: 08 Nov 03
Replies: 10717 18 Feb 11 22:11   


Nicky is blinkered with his old mans race..

He'd be as well having a go @ the QM..plenty of good jocks available...& there are only a handfull of horses that can win that race..

abbott Joined: 04 Nov 02
Replies: 917 18 Feb 11 22:25   


GT take a look who rode him to win at Ascot. Hes not got a ride in teh Champion!

Alvarado Joined: 20 Sep 10
Replies: 1016 18 Feb 11 22:35   


perhaps hes using french opera so one of other ones gets in off a nice low weight

ReaseHeath Joined: 15 May 04
Replies: 4868 18 Feb 11 22:38   


I'd take a shot at the Champion Chase - no longer a two horse race on the evidence since Christmas.

R Carver Joined: 19 Nov 09
Replies: 602 18 Feb 11 22:42   


Might run into a place, but his jumping worries me.

GT Joined: 08 Nov 03
Replies: 10717 18 Feb 11 22:44   


Indeed Abbott.

Alvarado..I think FO is too good a horse to use as a decoy..

abbott Joined: 04 Nov 02
Replies: 917 18 Feb 11 22:46   


R Carver I may be wrong but from memory he jumps a lot better out of better ground.

R Carver Joined: 19 Nov 09
Replies: 602 18 Feb 11 22:48   


Abbott - i think you could well be right, V good point. I wonder if he'll quite have the speed of the proven G1 horses off better ground, but he appears ot be improving and I can see him running into a place.

abbott Joined: 04 Nov 02
Replies: 917 18 Feb 11 22:58   


Ive followed him since his win at Aintree over hurdles in 08. Personally I think he is constantly improveing and at only 8 he may not be finished yet.
Im not saying he is a cert in any means but with holes in a large amount of the field and probably only 9-10 turning up on the day I think he is a very good NRNB.
His new rating should be at least 162 after today that puts him on a par with Somersby yet he is 3 times the price.

R Carver Joined: 19 Nov 09
Replies: 602 18 Feb 11 23:13   


Possibly because he has done it the hard way, through handicaps, and the yard have never advertised him highly (in a yard full of talking horses (usually justifiably!)), he has been a bit overlooked. People maybe cannot believe that a horse who never seen as much more than a handicapper (timber and fences) could be QMCC class. I recall that day at Liverpool - seem to remember him beating Rippling Ring possibly, at a decent price, with Foley on, making all?

abbott Joined: 04 Nov 02
Replies: 917 19 Feb 11 09:05   


Yip blinding speed that day, from memory Rippling came cruising but couldnt get by (as usual).
I must admit I feel that Henderson can often underrate some of his horses and did so they year I backed Punjabi for the
Champion hurdle.
I know they were considering running him in the Arkle last year but opted for the Grand Anual yet again he went close but failed
under a big weight. Even in failing I would say that run would have seen him at worst place in last year Arkle and the rating of
158 that he got would confirm that.
Id say you are right about the Handicapper thing I was telling my mate to back him last night and his reply was no chance hes just a
good handicapper. Once I asked him to actually look at the horse and give me specific reason why he started to reconsider.

The main thing from yesterday for me is I didnt back him because I was of the opinion that they would have left a decent amount
of work off him, Im still of that opinion yet he won with such ease. Anyway I better concentrate on todays racing or I wont
make anything this weekend.

I've been on at 40s since the summer. His rating last year was earned the hard way in handicaps and not much behind Somersby and Sizing Europe. Great Cheltenham record, runner up off top weight in last year's Grand Annual to a really well weighted rival, loves better ground and one of very few in the race going forward. On a line through tchico Polos, he's a bit better than Somersby and we all know how he ran behind Master Minded so why wouldn't they go there. Really fancy it and the stable have Dave's Dream and Tanks For That for the Grand Annual anyway.

totally agree think it should beabout 10s....come on nicky.you know it makes sense

Have backed him myself a whileback at 45s. No reason he shouldn't acquit himself well in the QM, but still got a fair bit to find

And I'd agree he has something to find but is one of very few with the capacity to do so. If you look at Woolcombe Folly, who I've backed to win both his races this season, he was only  rated about 142 at the start of the season but is now 7-1 after winning off a lower mark than French Opera has got so I'd be with him at the price.

while i dont think hes classy enough id def go for the race ,at the prices hes worth an ew punt

I like the horse and reading through this thread earlier I was starting to agree but thinking about it I'm not at all convinced. It could be a decent back now to lay on the day but I cant see it placing.

I'm not sure it has improved too much since last spring personally. He was 6 lengths better than Tchico Polos last April and on Friday he was 6 lengths better but carrying lb less than the 2nd. I also dont think it's a solid line through Tchico Polos to Somersby either given the way that Somersby has got better with each race this season I think it's fair to say that his first run out at Exeter wasn't his true form when he finshed 3 and a half lengths back whilst giving away 3lbs and the clearly needed the race. You could then argue that Somersby beat Tchico Polos by 40+ lengths at Ascot in Jan as well but likewise that wasn't TP's true form.

Good luck to all going after this one I can see where you are coming from but it's not for me. I still don't have a clue what will win in the QM though!

I think it's a fair point but Somersby has shown his best chasing form right handed at Sandown and Ascot so ought to have run well at Exeter on ground that would have helped him. On Friday, on ground softer than he prefers, he could have beaten Tchico Polos further and will improve for Cheltenham and better ground whereas Somersby was already crying out for further as a novice hurdler.

I think your last sentence is perhaps the real reason I like him. The race is wide open, he's improving and in the class needed but far bigger price than others of similar ability.

spot on booster.

I agree with your last line Booster. I must be honest the 2 big chases look ripe for a bigger priced winner and the hurdle races look between those at the top of the betting.

I've always loved MM but last year and the way he tired against Somersby worries me albeit he hit the front too early on tough going, cant have Big Zeb at on his last run and at 10, Golden Silver looks sure to race every week until the festival where he has never run a good race anyway. There are just too many doubts for me. It's pretty clear Captain Cee Bee didnt run to form last year in the Arkle but he could be a surprise in this at a reasonable price but nothing really strikes me. I just hope I dont get sucked in to lumping on MM who will be hyped to high heaven on the day.

On Somersby I think last years Arkle running is probably the second best piece of form he has produced and I wouldn't worry about going left handed myself. I think this is probably an easier race to have a go at than the Ryannair at this stage so I can see why he runs in the QM especially after running MM so close.

The Key to somersby is that everybody and their brother knows that he should be running in a different race. There is no way he is an
out and out 2miler. Personally I think he would have a better and more interesting chance in the Gold Cup.

i see henderson has come out and said that a media luz gos for triumph as toohigh in weights for fred winter....so hopefully he thinks uses same logic for french opera and he lines up in QMCC.l can honestly see this been about 7 -10 runners and he has chance of sneaking into a place

i see rated 164 now.....surely its qeen mother time

Jump on the French Operar Queen Mum Express

Just 5lbs behind Woolcombe Folly interestingly.

and 3 times the price ;)

I just can't get behind anything in the QM. Maybe having a smaller bet on a lively outsider and enjoying the race is the way forward (that's what I'm gonna do in the GC I think). I have a gut feeling that there is more than we have seen so far over fences from Captain Cee Bee but at 10 years old on his last run I'm a little concerned that he is short enough in the betting. At about 16s I think I could have a few quid on him. I really don't get what has happened to Sizing Europe this season but if he could return to form he'd be interesting given what Somersby has done this season. Although I appreciate Somersby at his age is open to improvement over fences.

Mad Max has been 'tubed' and in all probability will join French Opera in the Champion Chase," said Henderson

Time to bet like men chaps!!!!!!!!!! [;)]

where did you see that charwell?

cheers

C4 txt page Abbott. I've followed the horse closely, think he's just below top class personally but I do agree that he's over priced. Appears to come to himself at this time of year.

Cheers john

I understand the theory that he's just below top class but think that may be due to him taking the handicap route last season. He looked very good last Friday and thrived last spring for better ground where I think he won ayt Ayr despite the trip not being his optimum. I'm not sure this is a top class race and, bar Master Minded at his best(which he hasn't been for at least a couple of years), I don't see any difference between the next 5 or 6 in the betting. Big Zeb only beat Forpadydeplastere last year and that isn't vintage form.

hope henderson doesnt be selfish and run him in grand annual to keep weights down for one of his other horses

Surely the owner would have their say?

In his stable tour on Sportinglife he says to much weight for the Grand Annual so forced to run in the QM.  Good luck if you're on at big prices.  Personally hope he runs in the Grand Annual as it puts Oh Crick on a cracking weight!

Would be very unfair to run him in the h'cap. Ran a cracker last year and collared on the run in off top weight (broke my heart as backed him on the nose). With an evern higher rating now it wouldn't be right. HE is improving massively and have been very impressed with him. NH says runs in Champ chase so I think he has a cracking chance at 25/1.

looks like after a few doubts and a couple of worrying drifts on here ,that he is defo gloing for QM..Can see race cutting up so i think it is great value at 20's

woop woop :)

On the RP website yesterday, Henderson said he'd go for the champion Chase and he wasn't concerned who rides him as he's a straightforward ride.

Just about to take the plunge. Is it now certain that F.O. goes in the QM? Trying to find confirmation somewhere!

Thanks in advance.

From Hendersons stable tour in the weekender yestrday

Finished second in the Grnd Annual last year of mark of 154, havingrn third in the race the previous year. He has raced twice this season, with an encouraging win over Tichio Polos in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time.He is up to 164 now, 10lb higher than this time last year. However his handicap mark wont be a problem as he goes for the Champion Chase

Cheers MAC

12s on the day!!!
Cant wait till he stoats in :)

cant believe you can still get 25/1

After saying what I did above I have just backed FO.

The price is too big compared to Woolcombe Folly, they are very similar to me and the value is with FO at the prices. I have serious doubts about the front 2 in the market this year as much as I like MM. I now have Sizing, Golden Silver and FO running for me. Wouldn't mind getting Captain Cee Bee but you can't back em all!

Good luck everyone backing and if he scoots up I'll be back here to praise you lot for making me think twice!

Yep, just got on e/w @ 25's - the price will look big on the day for a Cheltenham specialist.

only max of 11 runners ..definate each way chance

not entered for the  2 mile handicap....likely good going..the charge is well and truly on