5 weeks to go. Where are the shock winners

If only we knew

Can't see any shocks in the big championship races but there are bound to beplenty of double figure winners in the novice races and handicaps.

Sunnyhillboy at 16/1 looks a right plot horse for the William Hill H'cap on the Tuesday which they won with Wichita Linesman - reckon it will go off about 5/1 favourite.

Wayward Prince is my fancy. A decent alternative to a worthy favourite in TFR. I'm never scared of one horse, and this race is usually won by horses that can stay with the hectic pace as they'll be going flat out a long way from home. 16/1 ew is big as long as he stays fit. He runs over 3m and 3m1f and has no problem with trip and I think he'll be better on decent ground as per Aintree last year.

mikael, dunguib, zaynar, al ferof ..... still all big prices, all def got a real chance

West With The Wind an each way alternative in the Arkle. Local Hero would be half the price he is for the Triumph Hurdle if he was trained by a more fashionable stable.

And local Hero has had a right battle up the hill, which is always good in a young hurdler. and there doesn't seem to be much else for AP to ride. My idea of a tasty ew Triumph bet.

Throw a dart at the 'Bar' horses in the Festival Plate betting

You couldn't have done any worse in the last few years.

..if zaidpour wins saturday ...could force hidden universe to run in neptune ...for which he still a big price and could win if softish ground

Oh, and listen out for whispers in the lesser races; overheard one for Fassel in last year's Kim Muir, just failed on the line at 20/1!

Kilmurry in the Arkle could have been overlooked at 33s...beat Ghizao (admittedly chasing debut) hands down there in Oct before not firing nxt time and given a break since as not a winter-ground horse. Race looks to be cutting up to me and favs jumping hasnt been tested at all yet, so could be worth taking a chance on something at bigger price that's likely to make the gig

I think the shock may come in the gold cup...not sure which horse but not as confident this year that IC will win it (although still going to have a few quid on it)...I can see a big priced upset..dont think KS/Den or LRun will win it.

Define a shock in the Gold Cup? I think it's the most open for years, and id give anything a chance, save for the completely exposed types!!

I think Kilmurry would have a serious chance in the Grand Annual if he were to turn up.

Thousand Stars each way at 66's?

Just seen Kilmurry is in the 4-days for the Kingmaker at Warwick on Sat....bit surprised at that...thought they'd go to Fest with him fresh

I have a small ew double on Bensalem 16-1 for Willhill chs and For Non Stop 14-1 for the Corall cup.
Most of my other festival fancies are shorter prices.

Kid Cassidy in the supreme novices had any number of excuses last time and is much much better than that before that handed out a 15l beating to the very smart tornado bob back itnow if he wins on saturday he,ll be 16-1 on by teatime

Presenting Forever in the 3m hcap should of won last time when he idled badly letting midnight chase back in to win this horse is an excellent jumper loves good ground and is really progressive if nicholls/henderson trained him hed be fav

Al Ferof is massive for the Neptune at 25s

Join Together likewise for the Albert Bartlett at 16s

Kalahari King lovely at 10s for Ryanair as is Sizing Europe for same race at 16s if connections start to see sense

It would be a huge shock to me if Menorah and Time For Rupert won - cant have them at all.

''It would be a huge shock to me if Menorah and Time For Rupert won - cant have them at all.''


Some judge [smiley:crazy]

Thousand Stars and China Rock for me in the two big 'uns..

Tartak for the Ryanair. Course form, may still be improving, and though Poquelin looks a solid fav and will take all the beating, looks a big price to me on here.

agree with unclepuncle about wayward prince,also like wymott,this race often goes to a late maturing type who is brought along gradually.i also thing megastar could run a big race in the supreme if getting better ground.albertas run overpriced to win the ryanair again

giant bolster were he runs[;)]

You can still get over 20/1 on buena vista in the pertemps final.  Even though they may only get down to 137 this year, with a claimer on and cheekpieces fitted it will go very very close.

I dont think the handicapper is falling for the Buena Vista trick this year....he's been very slow to drop it even the 2 lb he has this term despite it being truly thumped several times....and it had a claimer and blinkers last year.

Beuena Vista wont be dropped enough but I als doubt he will get the rattleing fast ground that he got last year.

Pipe has an abundance of 3m hurdlers and I wouldnt be surprised if he was lineing up something else for the pertemps

Zaynar in the WH

I would not mind a bit on Cue Card for the CH if I can get non runner no bet. If Menorah is such a strong fancy, Cue Card who blew up last time and has had 3 months since as a 4/5yo to make improvement (1lb a month is the accepted rate of improvement in chasers so why not hurdlers?) So why is he such a big price? Only because nobody expects him to run.

Ladbrokes are NRNB on the Champion.

My long shot is Soldatino EW in the Champion Hurdle. I think last years Triumph may be getting overlooked a little bit and Soldatino could be a forgotten horse. Barizan went off at a crazy pace in last years Triumph and when horses do this depending how game they are in front you end up with a lot of tired horses and the race ends up looking visually unimpressive. Soldatino showed a lot of determintion for only his 2nd start in the UK to track him down and get past. If you look at what horses have come out of the winning the Triumph (Zaynar was actually fav. for the race this time last year) in previous years they tend to do well in the Champion Hurdle even if they don't win it. I think his last run was ok he travelled well before blowing up which he was entitled to. Henderson has given him a nice bit of time off to recover from that tough Triumph as a 4yo which could prove to be a masterstroke. I mean it will all depend how he runs on Saturday but if he wins he won't be 100's on here and he won't be available at 50/1 in the bookies. It's a bit of a gamble but you don't have to get too involved at those prices.

I like your way of thinkin masterminded. All very valid points.
I always prefer triumph form, to supreme form. Seems to be the biggest pointer.

Ive has a nice bet on soldatino fot tt trophy on saturday. loving the 12/1

zaynar world hurdle doubled with pigs might fly

Duncan Idaho - let me explain re Menorah and Time For Rupert.

Firstly, Menorah. In my opinion, Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Peddlers Cross are all better horses. Menorah took care of two novices last time out. Big deal. The aforementioned three could have done that easily. Won a handicap and a Supreme Novices last year from Get Me Out Of Here and Dunguib. The former hasn't done anything this season and Dunguib got pumped by Hurricane Fly last season. No reigning Supreme winner has followed up in a Champion since 1971 and the last 16 winners ran in the same calendar year.

Secondly, Time For Rupert. Granted, couple of taking displays over fences but I don't like how he missed his prep race lto, had a bit of time off, not for a race as brutal as the RSA. Again, major competition up against him led by Jessies Dream who I know is way ahead in the pecking order than Chicago Grey who was beat by Time For Rupert. Statistically again, the last 46 RSA winners ran in the same calendar year and the last 11 winners ran at least 3 times over fences. I'm not a stats buff but that wouldn't be heartwarming for me at 5-2

Good luck with those two if you are on them. It's all about opinions.

Didn't Brave Inca follow his Supreme win with a CH win?

^not in consecutive seasons. Supreme 2004, 3rd in the CH 2005 (Hardy Eustace), 1st CH 2006.

duncan, thanks for the Ladbrokes suggestion. Only 16/1 Cue Card nrnb which is a more realistic price if he was a certain runner. Think I will wait until the decs are out now.

BAllYDOYLE i agree with you bout Menorah.

and see where your cuming from with TFR no its nt great missing his prep.
Ths stat bout having 4 runns over fence has been blown out of the window this year really because of all the canceled meeting. alot will b in the same boat.
TRF was only going to run at chel away no where else webber said this at the start of the season.
To me he's jumped alot better than the others in the race dont think ive seen him put a foot wrong.

ive backd him @ 14's and 8's  and bkd jessies @ 36's sooo loookin forward 2 this what ever happens!!! there only a 40 quid difference in the winnings.

Ballydoyle, of course we all have different opinions about the game....just feel anyone who will be 'hugely shocked' if either of those win (particularly Time For Rupert given he'd have been an easy winner of World Hurdle w/o Big Buck's) and 'cant have them at all' is a bit too maverick for my tastes! Think stats can be helpful but it's rare i see a stat without immediately having a query about it...in this instance, i would want to know how many of those that went for RSA after only 2 runs started a single-figure price. Could be loads, could be few. For the record, i'm not on Menorah but do have some 9/2 TFR. Best of luck with your picks.

Old McDonald for me in the Neptune.

They booked Kieran Fallon to ride him in last year's bumper but he didn't make the race (the horse that is).

Won in January beating Crash, which won at Thurles today.

He's taking on Zaidpur on Saturday over an inadequate 2m2f but if he runs on into 3rd or 4th you wont see much of the 75 that's still available here.

And you Duncan Idaho....