Cheltenham Festival
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07 Feb 11
19:58
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04 Feb 09
From his "interview" with Orange.................Sam Winner
"I'm kicking myself about this one actually. You can't get things right every time as a trainer - of course, you make a lot of mistakes. And I made a mistake by running Sam Winner at Chepstow earlier in the month where he ended up coming fourth. I actually think that set him back a bit as the ground was totally and utterly wrong for him. So we'll give him a little rest now but I think he'll be suited to Aintree. I'd like to run him there next."
Plenty short enough for the Triumph unless he has changed his mind in the last 12 days !
"I'm kicking myself about this one actually. You can't get things right every time as a trainer - of course, you make a lot of mistakes. And I made a mistake by running Sam Winner at Chepstow earlier in the month where he ended up coming fourth. I actually think that set him back a bit as the ground was totally and utterly wrong for him. So we'll give him a little rest now but I think he'll be suited to Aintree. I'd like to run him there next."
Plenty short enough for the Triumph unless he has changed his mind in the last 12 days !
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Cant be right, can it?If it is then i think this should be put in the public domain.
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it is in the public domain ! http://web.orange.co.uk/article/trainer_talk_paul_nicholls
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Fair enough
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Still laying it at 12, which begs the question does anyone ever look at this forum ?!
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Seems strange....he can hardly be any more of an Aintree horse than he is a Chelt horse given his thumping of Grandouet there in November
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Ive read it.
Also disagree won at Chelt. Again - why is it not drifting like a barge |
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Trainer has sounded the warning bells twice noe re the Triumph. He either thinks the horse has a cracking chance of winning, thus the apprehension and nerves, or he simply wont be going.
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Man is a moron if he doesnt go
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He's said all along it's far from sure to run in the Triumph.
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Not really fussed if he has. He's already got it wrong with the going, going for teh forecast now with the track
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conspirecy theory
seems to be shortening a little on here? Whats going on? |
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Anyone with half a brain can't read much into the form with Grandouet. Sam Winner got the complete run of the race, was a well developed horse and got 8lb from Grandouet, who obviously needed time to come to himself, got an absolute pig of a ride, weaving all over the track coming down the hill and has since improved hugely twice because of it. Sam Winner wouldn't even be in the straight if he raced him again and Nicholls seems to know this, so aim him at Aintree, send him there a fresh horse, decent ground that he has performed his best on and all sorted. Conspiracy theory my buttocks.
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What gash?! Ground at Cheltenham Festival would be no worse than that race in November, so why wait for Aintree for ground? Think Nicholls knows he did too much too soon with 3 runs before end of year. Wouldnt altogether surprise me if they sack the rest of the campaign
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Not saying it wouldn't be decent at Chelt, just that I can see where Nicholls is coming from. He's always said he's a 3 mile chaser in the making, and Nicholls has a fine record preparing horses specifically for Aintree. Why run him in the Triumph if he doesn't think he can win?
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Which horses has he prepared specifically for Aintree in the past ?
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If you are preparing a horse for Aintree in spring you dont start them in Autumn at Cheltenham and the run them in heavy ground at Chepstow over Xmas. That i'd be confident of.
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No, he has realised that he isn't going to win the Triumph so why go there. Some I can think of off the top of my head are What a Friend 2010 (won), Pierrot Lunaire 2008 (won), Takeroc 2008 (2nd), Forest Pennant 2008 (won), Tataniano 2010 (won)- all of which missed Cheltenham and won or placed in Graded races at Aintree. I'm sure there are more but those are ones I can remember right now.
best wishes. |
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I think this is all muddied by Empire Levant though, who he stated would probably be best at Aintree (or Punchestown). Not going to run both run in the same race.
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Earlier in the season Nicholls said that Sam Winner might run in the Supreme rather than the triumph because he wanted plenty of cut in the ground and he was more likely to get that on the tuesday. Now after one run on chepstows very soft ground he's thinking about waiting til aintree for faster ground. seems bizarre to me. Nicholls would be a fool to wait til aintree with a horse who has proven he loves Cheltenham. Of course Grandouet has improved since sam winner thrashed him but Grandouet is still not sure to get up the hill whereas Sam Winner is. I'm not really bothered where he runs as have no ante post bet on the race. Just can't work out Nicholls Logic.
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I agree it is all very strange - but i think it's fair of him to admit that he thinks he's got it wrong. A lot of the time with ground he can only go by what the jockeys tell him in the races, and having run well twice on half decent ground, if AP said he was hating it at Chepstow then it changes everything.
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Alarm over lads.According to at the races website,Sam Winner runs.
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He scratched about 4 horse from the race this morning, including Indian Daudaie and Empire Levant.
Sam Winner a definate runner and the form of the Chepstow run is rock soild with both HDO and Smad Place winning at the weekend. If I had backed this horse, i'd not be worried at all now. |
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Ive been very impressed by this horse and one below par run in the mud at chepstow isnt going to put me off. Ive backed it at 12/1 and can see this one starting sp fav on the day.
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Tizzards horse wins the Triumph.[smiley:crazy]
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See PFNs comments on Sporting life now
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/02/21/manual_142156.html&BID=465 Sam Winner He's the opposite to Brampour - strong and full of scope. He's a real chaser in the making - he'll go over fences in the autumn. He won well at Cheltenham, including with a penalty and his beating of Grandouet looks good form. I shouldn't have run him at Chepstow at Christmas - it's always a mistake to run a Triumph horse in the mud at that time of year and I was half-persuaded to run. The ground was deep and he didn't act in it. He's a horse who is a little bit thick in his wind and it was never going to suit him and I wish I hadn't run him. He's had a nice break since, he's fresh and well and working really nicely. He's another who will appreciate a fast-run race and is one who would like a little cut in the ground. He'll make a lovely chaser in time but he'd still be favourite for the Triumph if I hadn't run him at Chepstow and I think he'll run really well. Ruby (Walsh) always says forget January form when it comes to the Festival and we'll see a different horse there where he'll get much better ground. |
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Is it me or does that quote seem a little contradictory regarding the ground?
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likes cut in the ground but not too much cut in the ground blah blah....load of bolloocks...he ran the horse too soon at Chepstow...trainer error
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I am on sam winner, its cheltenham form looks good, and all of nicholls horses run stinkers as always in january due to the flu vaccine they are all given around new years day.
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Nicholls strike rate January 2008 28%
January 2009 26% Maybe not 'as always' |
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Well that was the excuse banded around.
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Flyingbolt - Hebridean was one (
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not going?
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I agree with dunc
The price of the horse is too big for the triumph, maybe it is going for the surpreme. If it ends up at double figures on the day of the triumph then im all in (ew) |
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Bit of a drift on now - 14/1 on here
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Fingers crossed it ends up in Supreme being a french-bred 4yo receiving weight. The 33-1 NRNB is a non-brainer.
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Dermot Weld is praying for soft going for Unaccompanied in the JCB Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham on March 18.
The Curragh trainer warns that the filly is ground dependent and the master of Rosewell House is unsure if she would handle faster conditions effectively. Unaccompanied is second favourite with most bookmakers for the Triumph, at a best-priced 7/1, after winning both starts over hurdles including the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown two weeks ago. "She loves a good give in the ground, she's very effective on soft ground and whether she'll be as effective on a fast surface is debatable," Weld told At The Races. "I'm not convinced our four-year-old hurdlers are particularly good. She's probably the best of an average team. That said, in soft ground she's very good. "The Leopardstown Grade 1 was a reasonably good race. I think she will progress, I think she's very good, but she is ground dependent." |
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Isn;t her flat form on GF/G ?
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according to nicholls in todays rp, sam winner is now likely to go for the triumph
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nichols main young horses before last w'end runs - SAM WINNER, BRAMPOUR, AL FEROF, ROCK ON RUBY
Brampour always going for triumph as nichols had that big bet on him! Rock on ruby always goin for neptune He has been missing about with Al ferof and sam winner not knowing what races to run in. is this because he knows they are not as good as the other two so is trying to keep them all apart? in winter when sam winner was winning races he always said hes got better one at home - brampour. think al ferof should def go for longer race and not supreme sam winner, not sure about, i would only back him if ruby is on board cos then you would know he is actually stable number one choice just have a feeling nichols wants his brampour bet paying out!!! |