Cheltenham Festival
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anyone know what Aegean Dawn's most recent published hurdle rating is? and any opinion on what mark he will get for Festival?
we are told in RP that he was to go up 21lbs from 114 after beating Dynaste at Cheltenham in November. of course, he then ran at Ascot a week later (under a 5lbs penalty, 16lbs well-in) and beat Mille Chief by a comfortable 4+ lengths. did Aegean Dawn stay on 135 after this race?
now the hcapper has plenty of collateral form reason to bump Aegean Dawn's rating up further since then. Dynaste (2nd in Cheltenham race) won next time at Taunton, beating Organisateur (who himself held his own off top-weight in the Lanzarote subsequently). and of course, Mille Chief hacked up next time at Sandown and is going for the Champion Hurdle.
Aegean Dawn looks a likely strong favourite for a Festival handicap (Coral Cup or County?) but what mark is going to be on? Surely not 135? At least 140. He might even be fairly handicapped off 145. But is it possible he could end with a mark as high as 150? (Mille Chief is after all now rated 22lbs higher than that day at Ascot).
we are told in RP that he was to go up 21lbs from 114 after beating Dynaste at Cheltenham in November. of course, he then ran at Ascot a week later (under a 5lbs penalty, 16lbs well-in) and beat Mille Chief by a comfortable 4+ lengths. did Aegean Dawn stay on 135 after this race?
now the hcapper has plenty of collateral form reason to bump Aegean Dawn's rating up further since then. Dynaste (2nd in Cheltenham race) won next time at Taunton, beating Organisateur (who himself held his own off top-weight in the Lanzarote subsequently). and of course, Mille Chief hacked up next time at Sandown and is going for the Champion Hurdle.
Aegean Dawn looks a likely strong favourite for a Festival handicap (Coral Cup or County?) but what mark is going to be on? Surely not 135? At least 140. He might even be fairly handicapped off 145. But is it possible he could end with a mark as high as 150? (Mille Chief is after all now rated 22lbs higher than that day at Ascot).
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Currently rated 145 on offical ratings norekk
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cheers for that magic carpet
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agree he guna be 150+ well hopefully ive jus bin talkin to my mate bout him saying he was 1 of the nap for me and a good price im on at 13/1 for the coral cup. this horse looks like a world beater improving all the time only 4 runs.
really do think his main target will b the coral he need a trip and he's won over C/D. his dam was a gold cup horse. henerdson only ran him a ascot over 2m because it was a no brainer. b4 he went up in the weight over 2miles. coral cup all the way [;)] |
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handicapper catching him he'll need more than 5ibs up his sleeve to win Coral imo.
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What this horse can go onto acheive is anyones guess.In hindsight a hike of 26lbs from ascot looks steep but given the way he beat Mille Chief whom many believe will go close in a champion hurdle and that having only had 4 lifetime starts he really could be still capable of defying his mark of 145.Given that he is out of an unraced mare who is a half sister to gold cup winner Cool Dawn and by a proper national hunt sire in Alflora he is sure to improve with a step up to around 2m5f and beyond exciting times ahead methinks!
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I agree with Howdi - should go close and could well be a star but he'll need to be at least 5lb well-in to win the Coral. Isn't For Non Stop of more interest having beaten everything bar Grands Crus easily over course and distance earlier in the season? He went up to 135 but after a disappointment in the Challow (for which there were genuine excuses) he races off the same mark. I'd be surprised with a proper prep if he can't beat Aegean Dawn in receipt of 10lb.
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Ye looks a good race to be fair. Aegean Dawn will be some tool if he wwis it but whos to say he isn't
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wins*
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For Non Stop looks really well handicapped given what Grand Grus has gone on to achieve as touched on by Tomdeane.I brought up the fact that i thought For Non Stop was really well handicapped and that would be of massive intrest wherever he turns up at the festival in another thread.Long term i can see Aegean Dawn as a future gold cup contender i believe he really could be that good
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NH was saying on ATR that he has a notion to run Aegean Dawn in the Imperial Cup with a view to going for the bonus in the County Hurdle. He remarked that the horse would cope given it won twice in a week earlier in the season. He said it was more a choice of Imperial cup and or County Hurdle rather than County Hurdle or Coral Cup which he appeared to be ruling out. Interesting stuff.
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Anyone any idea of which race yet? Maybe the County over the Coral Cup; as MW says above?
NH: "Soldatino will definitely run in the County. Aegean Dawn and Voy Por Ustedes are other possibles" Horse is only 7/1 on here and shortened today, whilst 14/1 is freely available with the bookies. Surely 14/1 is far too big??? |
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interesting that they haven't raced him for a while ,saving his handicap rating.A must for any short list, just depends what race.
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only thing which will stop me backing this horse for the coral is if getmeoutofhere runs in the coral, horse has been nontrier for las 3 outings and is of 145 , 5 lbs less than he was this time last year , master stroking from henderson and hell win whichever he goes for problem is we dont know where both horses will go, ideallly it wud be aegean for the coral and gmooh for the county
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cant agree more,hoping they stay apart and nice double to be had
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One of Henderson's most fascinating festival entries is the unbeaten Aegean Dawn, who could bid for a £75,000 bonus for winning the Paddy Power Imperial Cup at Sandown the Saturday before Cheltenham before winning at the festival.
Announcing his plan, Henderson, who has entered Aegean Dawn in both the County Hurdle and Coral Cup, said: "I might try to do the two as his final two runs this season. There's only a few days between them but both his runs in November were bang-bang. "He's a chaser and I'm mindful of next year, but the bonus is £75,000 and it's not to be sniffed at."  |
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There's no way it will be anything but the County of they do go for the double - will surely need the extra 2 days in between.
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There's a simple answer for me.....lump on Aegean in the Imperial Cup...NH obviously feels he will win. The issue will be if he copes with a championship race a few days later. My plan would be not to put any ante post bet on him yet as we don't which one he will go to..... but use part of any winnings from the Imperial cup to go on him which ever race he runs in at the festival.
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Got 10/1 Aegean Dawn for the Imperial Cup with Paddy Power.
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