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Much as i try and much as i respect what could be a fantastic line up of champs past present and future I just can't find a reason to oppose Imperial Commander.
He's defo not in decline and at 10 has shown he's out the box nicely this season with a good BF chase victory.
He likes Cheltenham,has no issues with the trip or going left handed and seems to handle ANY ground from heavy to good.
He goes very well fresh which is exactly what he'll be at Chelters and the fences hold no fear for him whatsoever.
He has a good cruising speed and likes to race handily so the likes of Neptune,Long Run,Denman and Midnight Chase blazing away could set this up for him nicely.
He's beaten the previous (legendary) chasers and champs Kauto and Denman pretty convincingly and has no problem up the hill.
I just can't seem to find any chinks in his armour at all at Chelters.I do believe however that this (currently) is one of the strongest GC fields in recent memory and the likes of Diamond Harry,Pandorama,Long Run and the above mentioned all feasibly in with a shout.I personally don't quite see Long Run's jumping holding up to the demands of this lot though.
The only way i see a defeat for IC is either a 100% Kauto on good ground(can he really produce that though now?)
Or a sapping war of attrition in soft ground when the pacesetters get a break and get IC under pressure,it's not impossible to imagine Neptune Collognes and Denman going mano mano down the back straight and getting the field at it with the inevitable mistakes.Again i'm not quite sure if Denman is still capable of turning the screw to the "brutal" setting(surely the grand old beast's only chance of outright victory)
So can anyone offer any sane reason to oppose IC? or is the the win and place back of the decade?
He's defo not in decline and at 10 has shown he's out the box nicely this season with a good BF chase victory.
He likes Cheltenham,has no issues with the trip or going left handed and seems to handle ANY ground from heavy to good.
He goes very well fresh which is exactly what he'll be at Chelters and the fences hold no fear for him whatsoever.
He has a good cruising speed and likes to race handily so the likes of Neptune,Long Run,Denman and Midnight Chase blazing away could set this up for him nicely.
He's beaten the previous (legendary) chasers and champs Kauto and Denman pretty convincingly and has no problem up the hill.
I just can't seem to find any chinks in his armour at all at Chelters.I do believe however that this (currently) is one of the strongest GC fields in recent memory and the likes of Diamond Harry,Pandorama,Long Run and the above mentioned all feasibly in with a shout.I personally don't quite see Long Run's jumping holding up to the demands of this lot though.
The only way i see a defeat for IC is either a 100% Kauto on good ground(can he really produce that though now?)
Or a sapping war of attrition in soft ground when the pacesetters get a break and get IC under pressure,it's not impossible to imagine Neptune Collognes and Denman going mano mano down the back straight and getting the field at it with the inevitable mistakes.Again i'm not quite sure if Denman is still capable of turning the screw to the "brutal" setting(surely the grand old beast's only chance of outright victory)
So can anyone offer any sane reason to oppose IC? or is the the win and place back of the decade?
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Wait to the day, he won't be much shorter odds with all the sentimental money around...
To put it bluntly, since his win last year he's had 2 runs; first time he jumped shockingly before coming down (even if there are excuses because of the track) and first time this year he beat Tidal Bay who has beaten just as easily by Neptune Collonges at he weekened (250s before the race), and Nacarat and POS who were beaten way further in the KG. Also since then he's had an injury and he's now a 10yo (even if he's relatively lightly raced) which was one stat being put forward to take on KS/Den last year.
Personally think Big Zeb is far better value at a similar price in the QM with less potential rivals of a similar quality in rivalry.
To put it bluntly, since his win last year he's had 2 runs; first time he jumped shockingly before coming down (even if there are excuses because of the track) and first time this year he beat Tidal Bay who has beaten just as easily by Neptune Collonges at he weekened (250s before the race), and Nacarat and POS who were beaten way further in the KG. Also since then he's had an injury and he's now a 10yo (even if he's relatively lightly raced) which was one stat being put forward to take on KS/Den last year.
Personally think Big Zeb is far better value at a similar price in the QM with less potential rivals of a similar quality in rivalry.
It does look as if a few nice onces exist at bigger prices, but if IC jumps round, I cannot imagine circumstances where he gets beat. NTD not in super form, but he got them right for the gig last yr (and before), so no reason to think he wont this yr.
i cant.
To get the winner He has to be on your side imo.
To get the winner He has to be on your side imo.
Double figure age horses don't win the GC anymore. However if you do fancy IC just wait till the day, will get a bigger price
Very good weighing up of the race, BonVivvy.
I think the point EC makes about the price probably not being much shorter on the day is well made. Any benefit of backing ante-post may have gone at this stage and I think BD (one of the owners) has often emphasised on here the travails of getting the horse right for the big day. The NRNB concessions should be more widely available in a week or two, also, and best price may possibly be not much below the current ante-post price.
Long Run, his jumping and his jockey, very much an evolving story, I feel. May not have evolved enough by the time of the GC to ensure an error free round, but there may just be a rate of improvement there with the horse and jockey combination that continues to surprise a few.
I think the point EC makes about the price probably not being much shorter on the day is well made. Any benefit of backing ante-post may have gone at this stage and I think BD (one of the owners) has often emphasised on here the travails of getting the horse right for the big day. The NRNB concessions should be more widely available in a week or two, also, and best price may possibly be not much below the current ante-post price.
Long Run, his jumping and his jockey, very much an evolving story, I feel. May not have evolved enough by the time of the GC to ensure an error free round, but there may just be a rate of improvement there with the horse and jockey combination that continues to surprise a few.
Imo Good Ground would scupper more horses chances than softer ground. There is a chance od a totally unforgiving pace out front with the likes of Midnight Chase, Neptune Collonges,Denman,Diamond Harry and Indeed Imperial, who himself was not far off the pace in last years renewal.
If someone does take take them along faster on the 1st circuit than normal then they could be crawling up the hill second time around and id actually say that IC would have a better chance on good ground than if it was softer despite him acting on it
on heavy ground id be EW on Tidal Bay
If someone does take take them along faster on the 1st circuit than normal then they could be crawling up the hill second time around and id actually say that IC would have a better chance on good ground than if it was softer despite him acting on it
on heavy ground id be EW on Tidal Bay
A fine summary Bon Vivvy. I'm not with those who say wait till the day. IC can be backed NRNB (7/2) at no worse a price than is on offer at standard ante-post terms. Backing him now means that if any of the other principals don't get there, you've secured the 7/2 with no penalty if IC doesn't turn up.
I agree with the original poster, and I can't any reason why he should be opposed, more so because I think this year's Gold Cup while strong on paper, is actually quite a weak race! Let me explain...
Long Run - Personally I believe the horse needs a flat track to stay three miles.
Denman - Somewhat the joker in the pack this year; if he turns up in the same for he did for the Hennessey there's no reason why he can't win the race, however on form there is no reason why he should reverse form with Imperial Commander.
Kauto Star - Would be a threat if the ground description contains the word 'Good', but in my opinion Cheltenham tests his jumping to the absolute limit and one mistake could see his race over.
Diamond Harry - Another joker in the pack, but question marks as to his likely of the Cheltenham undulations, and also would have to have improved to confirm form with Denman off level weights.
Pandorama - This horse is trouble. Obviously very talented, but prone to injury and set back. I personally couldn't back him with any confidence.
Pride Of Dulcote - Again would have to improve dramatically to get near the big three, and Punchestowns poor showing last weekend did nothing for the form of his Newbury win.
Midnight Chase - A bit of an unknown again. Form on the book but we don't know if he can mix it with the top grade.
We're then down to the outsiders, who cannot on form anyway, be given any chance against the market leaders. For Imperial Commander to be considered a strong bet, you simply have to forgive a slightly sluggish reappearance when probably only half cooked earlier in the season, and you have to assume he will jump round ok; not hard to assume given his run last year.
Long Run - Personally I believe the horse needs a flat track to stay three miles.
Denman - Somewhat the joker in the pack this year; if he turns up in the same for he did for the Hennessey there's no reason why he can't win the race, however on form there is no reason why he should reverse form with Imperial Commander.
Kauto Star - Would be a threat if the ground description contains the word 'Good', but in my opinion Cheltenham tests his jumping to the absolute limit and one mistake could see his race over.
Diamond Harry - Another joker in the pack, but question marks as to his likely of the Cheltenham undulations, and also would have to have improved to confirm form with Denman off level weights.
Pandorama - This horse is trouble. Obviously very talented, but prone to injury and set back. I personally couldn't back him with any confidence.
Pride Of Dulcote - Again would have to improve dramatically to get near the big three, and Punchestowns poor showing last weekend did nothing for the form of his Newbury win.
Midnight Chase - A bit of an unknown again. Form on the book but we don't know if he can mix it with the top grade.
We're then down to the outsiders, who cannot on form anyway, be given any chance against the market leaders. For Imperial Commander to be considered a strong bet, you simply have to forgive a slightly sluggish reappearance when probably only half cooked earlier in the season, and you have to assume he will jump round ok; not hard to assume given his run last year.
I have to admit to never giving IC the credit he deserves. I couldnt put anyone off him and he will carry some of my money.
But I am coming around to Long Run all the time... Some fantastic runs even when not quite right, and has the scope to keep improving for some time yet. He is definitely my pick at this stage.
But I am coming around to Long Run all the time... Some fantastic runs even when not quite right, and has the scope to keep improving for some time yet. He is definitely my pick at this stage.
Thanks all for the excellent replies.As for price i'm also leaning towards a "closer to the race" situation but cannot see any great movements in all honesty.Though sentimental money for Denman and KS on the day may nudge him out a shade.
The ground looks very much like being a major factor as soft(coupled with what could be real pace) could literally mean a "last man standing scenario" as they drop off one by one.Whereas "good" would surely strenghten IC's case even further.
There's no doubt IC will need to be primed for this but i still make him a very good 7/2 chance on a hard headed analyasis.
The ground looks very much like being a major factor as soft(coupled with what could be real pace) could literally mean a "last man standing scenario" as they drop off one by one.Whereas "good" would surely strenghten IC's case even further.
There's no doubt IC will need to be primed for this but i still make him a very good 7/2 chance on a hard headed analyasis.
The last man standing on soft is my thinking on the race BV.
On Good Ground i can only see IC or KS winning whereas on soft i could see a few winners
On Good Ground i can only see IC or KS winning whereas on soft i could see a few winners
I think the horse is a cracking price and would be surprised if he gets there A1 to see him drift. An impressive winner last yr against unknown and already beaten types, I think he can only shorten.
As he is not going to run again before the race, his price will be influenced by other trials. If something produces a big run, he could still drift a bit, but if nothing else shows improvement in the next 2 weeks he could easily be short on the day.
Whats going for the AON ?? can only see The Irish one on Sun, The Post Chase and not a lot else apart from Novices, i presume that Denman, Diamond, Kauto et al are going straight there now so i can only see withdrawals affecting the market from now on.
We have a strange situation where all the horses at the head of the market have only had one or two runs this season so we are working on limited information when we sum up a horses recent form
We have a strange situation where all the horses at the head of the market have only had one or two runs this season so we are working on limited information when we sum up a horses recent form
RFC marketeers chastened by poxing the Kauto v Denman match have covered more bases with a "famous 5" this year
The Famous Five Go for Gold as Imperial Commander tries to defend his crown against proven heroes Denman and Kauto Star, with young pretenders Long Run and Diamond Harry poised in the wings.
...put a line through the lot
The Famous Five Go for Gold as Imperial Commander tries to defend his crown against proven heroes Denman and Kauto Star, with young pretenders Long Run and Diamond Harry poised in the wings.
...put a line through the lot
Nicholls currently unfolding his pretenders(outside of his big two). Neptune Collognes winning the Argento last week, that form won't stand in a GC. Pride of Dulcote at Leapordstown on Sunday, would need to win a very weak Irish Hennessy convincingly to be considered a threat to IC, KS, LR etc and What a Friend in the Aon next weekend. What a friend has imo the scope to be amongst the reckoning and was 4th Fav for GC at the beginning of the season. He's clearly been campaigned with the latter half of the season in mind and if you can forgive his reappearance when well beaten by IC in the Betfair @ Haydock(not seen since) then his outing next week at Newbury certainly warrants some close scrutiny.
My opinion of Imperial Commanander is that he is a very good horse but not a great horse and only great horses tend to win two Gold Cups. Could be vulnerable to a younger member of the ranks coming through, step up Long Run, Diamond Harry and maybe yet What a Friend.
My opinion of Imperial Commanander is that he is a very good horse but not a great horse and only great horses tend to win two Gold Cups. Could be vulnerable to a younger member of the ranks coming through, step up Long Run, Diamond Harry and maybe yet What a Friend.
Only Best Mate has retained the Gold Cup in nearly 40 years. That's enough reason for me!
Agree with the above two posters. IC a very solid proposition and 7/2 looks about right. Just worrying that Denman and Kauto Star failed to land back-to-back Gold Cups as I don't in my heart feel IC is quite as good as either of that pair were when they were in their pomp.
The young brigade are massing and I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of them rose to the occasion. Long Run could very possibly not be a Cheltenham horse but he has the strongest form of all contenders this year (IMO) and 7/1 for a horse with a progressive profile is very tempting. It could simply be that it has taken him a while to settle and jump at the top table, and now he is well on the way to doing that, he might just take Cheltenham in his stride.
The young brigade are massing and I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of them rose to the occasion. Long Run could very possibly not be a Cheltenham horse but he has the strongest form of all contenders this year (IMO) and 7/1 for a horse with a progressive profile is very tempting. It could simply be that it has taken him a while to settle and jump at the top table, and now he is well on the way to doing that, he might just take Cheltenham in his stride.
WHat a Freind does not have 1 piece of chase form that puts him within 7-10 lb of winning a GC imo.
Your not wrong RC, there's just something about his profile that prevents me from drawing a line thru his chances just yet. Ultimately I believe one of the younger horses name will be on the Cup this year, if push came to shove at this stage I'd say Diamond Harry, but no bet for me in this until Festival week
IC is always very impressive first time up every year, this year he wasn't, tiring at the end and nearly letting Tidal Bay take the honours. Apparantly he was in pain, and has since missed the KG due to injury.
Whilst Kempton is not his racecourse, missing the KG is a negative to me, it's still a race after all. He'll be heading to the GC on the back of a 4month break and an injury, this is not the ideal preparation for a GC winner, and a 10yo one at that. I wouldn't be touching him at 7/2.
Whilst Kempton is not his racecourse, missing the KG is a negative to me, it's still a race after all. He'll be heading to the GC on the back of a 4month break and an injury, this is not the ideal preparation for a GC winner, and a 10yo one at that. I wouldn't be touching him at 7/2.
I have spent a few minutes looking at the contenders this morning and it is a struggle to look much further than IC. I just cannot see Denman and Kauto rolling back the years and if I was a wealthier man would lay as much as I could on Long Run at Cheltenham. Dimaonmd harry is a horse I like but he won with no weight at all and the combination of weight and his jumping make him far too risky to me. It could be one of those years when we get an upset and the one i keep looking at and thinking maybe is Midnight Chase. I like the profile which is similar to IC with a love of the course and steady improvement. I already have a fair bit on IC at 5's but will be nibbling at MC.
I would be very worried that IC didn't turn up last weekend. Its just not NTD style to turn down 50 grand prize money. Have we heard a health check from NTD at all? I wouldn't back him until I heard good news rather than no news at all.
someone plz post 10yo+ stats and 6yo stats
Age stats are useless - the worse 'stats' you can get because they seldom, if ever quote a sample size for comparison.
Age stats are useless - the worse 'stats' you can get because they seldom, if ever quote a sample size for comparison.
mahle, did you read the RP supplement on Thursday. NTD has ruled out another run before the GC but plans a couple of racecourse gallops, probably Kempton on Racing Post day. Everything going to plan apparently and thinks he is as well as this stage last year.
Twiston-davies has always been a very streaky trainer. The chance of IC being in the same form as last year
is unlikely ;if Khyber kim runs well it would increase his chance. Most horses who win the Gold Cup never
reproduce it unless their special. IC ain't special.
is unlikely ;if Khyber kim runs well it would increase his chance. Most horses who win the Gold Cup never
reproduce it unless their special. IC ain't special.
the famous freddie williams layed 6 figure bets priced up based on stats. questioned why he was standout price on favourites often he would reply "whens the last time a X year old won this race" etc etc. if its good enough for freddie its good enough for me. stats show trends, trends point to winners / losers imo
OK RDS, the last 6-y-old to win the Gold Cup was Mill House in 1963; on that basis' all you stats guys will be avoiding Long Run.
No doubt, to justify this you'll make the normal assumption of age stats interpreters that three or four fancied six-year-olds have run in every Gold Cup since 1963.
Want to have a guess at how many six-year-olds in total have contested all those Gold Cups since '63?
No doubt, to justify this you'll make the normal assumption of age stats interpreters that three or four fancied six-year-olds have run in every Gold Cup since 1963.
Want to have a guess at how many six-year-olds in total have contested all those Gold Cups since '63?
Being a statistician, I hate the misuse of stats in racing, drives me nuts. It is normally used to back up a persons preheld opinion on a horse.
So, as they say in the Eskimo Lottery "if you're not Inuit, you can't win you it"
so that doesnt say much then but the 10yo+ does. saying that the current crop could certainly rewrite the books because imo they are better than gc contenders of years gone by
How many 10 year olds went off fav and completed? or actually 4/1 and shorter would do.
Many more 10 y-olds will have run than 6-y-olds, but it drives home the usleseness of age stats - unless you know how many of each age have run in each race and, arguably, their price, age 'stats' are absolutely pointless.
they are for the 6yos but 10yos + must make up a huge % of the runners imo. i havent scrutinised it cos im no harry findlay but if i was id know em inside out and use the info + my own eyes
You have to know their price Steeple, with their price you can see what % chance of winning they were priced up at. Then you can see how well different age groups faired when compared to the chances they were given pre race.
- unless you know how many of each age have run in each race and, arguably, their price, age 'stats' are absolutely pointless,
CV, extract from my post timed 22.47
CV, extract from my post timed 22.47
You said arguably, I say you must know, the price of the horse is as vital as the number of horses.
The stats are also meaningless if the weight for age scale changes as it has in the Arkle. 5yo's had a good record for a while but they changed the wfa and now thay are at a disadvantage imo.
You said arguably, I say you must know, the price of the horse is as vital as the number of horses.
Although I said 'arguably, I'd argue that it doesn't necessarily mean 'arguably' in the literal sense. Would you argue with that?
Although I said 'arguably, I'd argue that it doesn't necessarily mean 'arguably' in the literal sense. Would you argue with that?
Great Thread Bonvivvy!
See my post on "gold cup review" thread.
Have done some work on the much repeated 10 year old stat.
By my reckoning there have been 2 serious contenders aged 10 plus in the last 10 years, and 2 other short priced horses in that age bracket.
The 2 serious contenders were Denman and Kauto.
Kauto fell when odds on fav
Denman was 2nd to a top class performer (IC) - 23 lengths clear of the rest!
The 2 other credible contenders aged 10+ (from over 30 runners) were beef or salmon (how on earth did he go off 4/1 given his atrocious cheltenham form!?) and looks like trouble (2nd run back following more than a season on the sidelines,, having won egg and spoon prep race).
In hindsight then i don't think either BoS or LLT go very far towards proving the negative 10 yo stat, so its not that great a concern for me given Imperial Commander's cheltenham form (which, excluding the run in which he went "wrong" reads 111111), and his record off a 60 day+ break (111211 - with the "2" being the "dead heat" with kauto at haydock in 2009).
Given the doubts about the others (see my gold cup review thread) and IC's course record and record when fresh, I think he is a knock out bet at 4/1...
See my post on "gold cup review" thread.
Have done some work on the much repeated 10 year old stat.
By my reckoning there have been 2 serious contenders aged 10 plus in the last 10 years, and 2 other short priced horses in that age bracket.
The 2 serious contenders were Denman and Kauto.
Kauto fell when odds on fav
Denman was 2nd to a top class performer (IC) - 23 lengths clear of the rest!
The 2 other credible contenders aged 10+ (from over 30 runners) were beef or salmon (how on earth did he go off 4/1 given his atrocious cheltenham form!?) and looks like trouble (2nd run back following more than a season on the sidelines,, having won egg and spoon prep race).
In hindsight then i don't think either BoS or LLT go very far towards proving the negative 10 yo stat, so its not that great a concern for me given Imperial Commander's cheltenham form (which, excluding the run in which he went "wrong" reads 111111), and his record off a 60 day+ break (111211 - with the "2" being the "dead heat" with kauto at haydock in 2009).
Given the doubts about the others (see my gold cup review thread) and IC's course record and record when fresh, I think he is a knock out bet at 4/1...
There are a couplle of interesting points in this thread.
Firstly, that when IC beat Denman last year, there was a gap of 23 lengths to the 3rd placed horse. For IC, this was a performance not to be underestimated, especially as Denman went on to carry 11:12 into 3rd place in the Hennessey GC last November.
Secondly, since L'escargot, Best Mate is the only horse to retain the Gold Cup in nearly 40 years and he did it twice - yet he only ever acheived an Official Rating of 175 which makes him a 4lb inferior horse to Long Run.
This is the same Long Run that was beaten off OR158 in the Paddy Power last Nov.
I cannot see a horse capable of beating IC in the race on known form. And given that form, were his name Kauto Star or Denman then his odds would not be 7/2 - they'd be more like 9/4, or maybe even shorter.
Firstly, that when IC beat Denman last year, there was a gap of 23 lengths to the 3rd placed horse. For IC, this was a performance not to be underestimated, especially as Denman went on to carry 11:12 into 3rd place in the Hennessey GC last November.
Secondly, since L'escargot, Best Mate is the only horse to retain the Gold Cup in nearly 40 years and he did it twice - yet he only ever acheived an Official Rating of 175 which makes him a 4lb inferior horse to Long Run.
This is the same Long Run that was beaten off OR158 in the Paddy Power last Nov.
I cannot see a horse capable of beating IC in the race on known form. And given that form, were his name Kauto Star or Denman then his odds would not be 7/2 - they'd be more like 9/4, or maybe even shorter.
You could argue either.
That the use of "arguably" could mean the literal sense, "it may be argued (used to qualify the statement of opinion or belief)" or that "arguably" was more a use to mask a statement of fact, without drawing an unnecessary challenge to the statement, which would cause the discussion to diverge from the original topic.
That a case can be made for either I will take you at your word and desist with this inquiry.
That the use of "arguably" could mean the literal sense, "it may be argued (used to qualify the statement of opinion or belief)" or that "arguably" was more a use to mask a statement of fact, without drawing an unnecessary challenge to the statement, which would cause the discussion to diverge from the original topic.
That a case can be made for either I will take you at your word and desist with this inquiry.
CVB, I didn't expect a response as that was my weak attempt at being Pythonesque - but yours was a good one!
Though i'd love to have the last 20 years of gold cup runners, age and sp in a spreadsheet. Being a mathematician I could get you a prefect analysis.
Where would I get this data?
Just watched last years race again, forgot quite how impressive IC was
mite not b very helpful in trying you to stop bking imperialcommander bt happy menories 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joBgjuM_kRA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joBgjuM_kRA
Yes he's 10. Id love him to win again for my old mate Pete from Warrington one of the 8 owners but i think he's booked for a place at best
wont win imo. one season wonder, save your cash or lay.
IC is still great value because he isnt a cheltenham flash in the pan and has won time after time at HQ. If he had rocked up for the first time and won then fine may think one year only but too much going for him relative to the other top 5 in the betting. Why would Denman or Kauto beat him? i simply cannot see it bar a fall......still like Midnight though
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