Cheltenham Festival
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Excellent book http://www.weatherbysshop.co.uk/acatalog/info_467.html ...hopefully with link to purchase he wont mind me posting up the stat a day he has been posting up on twitter ...
Fest 32/73: Bobs Worth new Fav for Neptune but Henderson is 0-21 & just 2 top-tens since 1990! (7th & 5th)
Fest Stat 30/73: First 3 named also have to defy same 20-yr stat of no GC wnr coming off a single start in same season.
Fest Stat 29/73: No Gold Cup winner for 20 years had their last start before Boxing Day. Imp Comm, Denman, Diamond Harry & Midnight Chase?
Fest Stat 28/73: 3/5 winrs of today's 'PP Hogan' at Punch won the Fest X-Country Ch. Race also supplied r/u in '06/7/8.
Fest Stat 27/73: The last 47 RSA winners ran in same calendar yr & just 1 wnr less than 3 chase starts in last 20 yrs.
Fest Stat 26/73: 8/10 Champion Chase winners ran in Tingle Creek. No other Fest race has such high % in last 10 yrs
Fest Stat 25/73: Just 1/22 CH wnrs since '88 ran in last yr's Supreme. Fact Menorah, Dunguib & Oscar W need to overcome
Fest Stat 24/73: Since upped to 3m race in '05 the Cleeve Hdle has featured 3 World Hdle wnrs, 2 seconds and 2 thirds.
Fest Stat 23/73: Of the last 5 years, just 7 of the 32 handicap chases between 2m5f-3m were won by horses under 10/1
Fest Stat 22/73: Since 1988, the Irish Champion Hurdle winner has recorded 5 wins and 3 seconds in the Champion Hurdle.
Fest Stat 21/73: 7 of last 8 Irish-trained winners of the Arkle contested Sunday's Irish Arkle to be staged on Sunday.
Fest Stat 20/73: All 12 winners of the 2 novice h'caps had been beaten on their first 2 starts at their new discipline.
Fest Stat 19/73: Over half of Henderson's 37 Fest wnrs have been over 2m-2m1f & he has 6 ante-post favs in such races
Fest Stat 18/73: Of the last 20 Xmas Hdle winners to run in the Champion Hurdle, only Kribensis has won since Dawn Run.
Fest Stat 17/73: Re the Supreme, NH-breds are taking over lately winning last 3 runnings including 1-2-3-4-5 last 2 yrs
Fest Stat 16/73: Long Run would become the first 6yo to win GC since Mill House though just 3 have tried in last 40yrs.
Fest Stat 15/73: With 18 wins since '77 the Supreme has been by far Ire's most successful race of Fest with 7 more wnrs than any other race.
Fest Stat 14/73: The King George is the best Fest guide since 1989 feat 19 wnrs including the last 3 Ryanair winners.
Fest Stat 13/73: Since Mill House only Dawn Run has won GC with less than 6 runs over fences. D Harry, Dulcote, Rupert?
Fest Stat 12/73: Been argued Fest Bump wnr has poor record at following Fest but 3 wins & 2 places from 11 to return.
Fest Stat 11/73: Since 1980 134 horses under 2/1 with 54 winning (LSP -£6.27) but a +£8.72 LSP if last 10 Fests only.
Fest Stat 10/73: In 6 runnings of Ryanair Chase, course winners made up 49% of field but supplied 91% of winners & 2nds
Fest Stat 9/73: Yesterday's Tolworth Hdle been jt-best nov hdle guide to Fest over last 15 runnings featuring 6 wnrs.
Fest Stat 8/73: All 13 wnrs of Challow Hdle to run in Neptune were beaten, vast majority to front of market. Backspin?
Fest Stat 7/73: The last 8 wnrs of the Arkle & RSA had all won pattern races over hurdles from just 28% representation.
Fest Stat 6/73: Last 16 Champion Hdle wnrs ran during same calendar year. In fact, only 1 of last 27 did not. Menorah?
Fest Stat 5/73:Gold Cup 2nd/3rd favs Kauto & Denman are both 11yr olds & last Gold Cup wnr aged over 10 was 42 yrs ago
Fest Stat 4/73: 6/7 Triumph Hdle wnrs made hurdling debut in Dec/Jan unlike A-P fav Sam Winner. Keep those eyes peeled
Fest Stat 3/73: The 4yo bumper at Leo'towns Xmas Meet was won by 2 Fest Bumpers wnrs on their final outing. Can Bold Optimist make it three?
Fest Stat 2/73: 9/11 Arkle wnrs had hdle rating 142+ & won NovCh by 1st w/e Dec-so few qualify so Fin Rain value at 8s?
Fest Stat 1/73: If Time For Rupert wins RSA he'll be first for 20yrs to spend more than 1 season over hdles 7/2 anyone?
Some corkers in there ...
Fest 32/73: Bobs Worth new Fav for Neptune but Henderson is 0-21 & just 2 top-tens since 1990! (7th & 5th)
Fest Stat 30/73: First 3 named also have to defy same 20-yr stat of no GC wnr coming off a single start in same season.
Fest Stat 29/73: No Gold Cup winner for 20 years had their last start before Boxing Day. Imp Comm, Denman, Diamond Harry & Midnight Chase?
Fest Stat 28/73: 3/5 winrs of today's 'PP Hogan' at Punch won the Fest X-Country Ch. Race also supplied r/u in '06/7/8.
Fest Stat 27/73: The last 47 RSA winners ran in same calendar yr & just 1 wnr less than 3 chase starts in last 20 yrs.
Fest Stat 26/73: 8/10 Champion Chase winners ran in Tingle Creek. No other Fest race has such high % in last 10 yrs
Fest Stat 25/73: Just 1/22 CH wnrs since '88 ran in last yr's Supreme. Fact Menorah, Dunguib & Oscar W need to overcome
Fest Stat 24/73: Since upped to 3m race in '05 the Cleeve Hdle has featured 3 World Hdle wnrs, 2 seconds and 2 thirds.
Fest Stat 23/73: Of the last 5 years, just 7 of the 32 handicap chases between 2m5f-3m were won by horses under 10/1
Fest Stat 22/73: Since 1988, the Irish Champion Hurdle winner has recorded 5 wins and 3 seconds in the Champion Hurdle.
Fest Stat 21/73: 7 of last 8 Irish-trained winners of the Arkle contested Sunday's Irish Arkle to be staged on Sunday.
Fest Stat 20/73: All 12 winners of the 2 novice h'caps had been beaten on their first 2 starts at their new discipline.
Fest Stat 19/73: Over half of Henderson's 37 Fest wnrs have been over 2m-2m1f & he has 6 ante-post favs in such races
Fest Stat 18/73: Of the last 20 Xmas Hdle winners to run in the Champion Hurdle, only Kribensis has won since Dawn Run.
Fest Stat 17/73: Re the Supreme, NH-breds are taking over lately winning last 3 runnings including 1-2-3-4-5 last 2 yrs
Fest Stat 16/73: Long Run would become the first 6yo to win GC since Mill House though just 3 have tried in last 40yrs.
Fest Stat 15/73: With 18 wins since '77 the Supreme has been by far Ire's most successful race of Fest with 7 more wnrs than any other race.
Fest Stat 14/73: The King George is the best Fest guide since 1989 feat 19 wnrs including the last 3 Ryanair winners.
Fest Stat 13/73: Since Mill House only Dawn Run has won GC with less than 6 runs over fences. D Harry, Dulcote, Rupert?
Fest Stat 12/73: Been argued Fest Bump wnr has poor record at following Fest but 3 wins & 2 places from 11 to return.
Fest Stat 11/73: Since 1980 134 horses under 2/1 with 54 winning (LSP -£6.27) but a +£8.72 LSP if last 10 Fests only.
Fest Stat 10/73: In 6 runnings of Ryanair Chase, course winners made up 49% of field but supplied 91% of winners & 2nds
Fest Stat 9/73: Yesterday's Tolworth Hdle been jt-best nov hdle guide to Fest over last 15 runnings featuring 6 wnrs.
Fest Stat 8/73: All 13 wnrs of Challow Hdle to run in Neptune were beaten, vast majority to front of market. Backspin?
Fest Stat 7/73: The last 8 wnrs of the Arkle & RSA had all won pattern races over hurdles from just 28% representation.
Fest Stat 6/73: Last 16 Champion Hdle wnrs ran during same calendar year. In fact, only 1 of last 27 did not. Menorah?
Fest Stat 5/73:Gold Cup 2nd/3rd favs Kauto & Denman are both 11yr olds & last Gold Cup wnr aged over 10 was 42 yrs ago
Fest Stat 4/73: 6/7 Triumph Hdle wnrs made hurdling debut in Dec/Jan unlike A-P fav Sam Winner. Keep those eyes peeled
Fest Stat 3/73: The 4yo bumper at Leo'towns Xmas Meet was won by 2 Fest Bumpers wnrs on their final outing. Can Bold Optimist make it three?
Fest Stat 2/73: 9/11 Arkle wnrs had hdle rating 142+ & won NovCh by 1st w/e Dec-so few qualify so Fin Rain value at 8s?
Fest Stat 1/73: If Time For Rupert wins RSA he'll be first for 20yrs to spend more than 1 season over hdles 7/2 anyone?
Some corkers in there ...
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Interesting reading though peppered with the usual nonsense posing as 'stats':
Fest Stat 16/73: Long Run would become the first 6yo to win GC since Mill House though just 3 have tried in last 40yrs. (Er, it won't be a stat then if the sample size was 3 from about 400 runners?) |
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Gloria Victus might well have won, The Fellow probably should have. LR being a 6yo is a clear positive imo
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Fest Stat 16/73: Long Run would become the first 6yo to win GC since Mill House though just 3 have tried in last 40yrs. (Er, it won't be a stat then if the sample size was 3 from about 400 runners?)
Isnt that his point ... |
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The Gold Cup is turning in to one of those races where on the stats nothing can win it.
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Fk me - does that mean we'll have to try and study the form then?
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Fest Stat 16/73: Long Run would become the first 6yo to win GC since Mill House though just 3 have tried in last 40yrs. (Er, it won't be a stat then if the sample size was 3 from about 400 runners?)
Isnt that his point ... //////////////////////////////////// It's headed as a stat - it isn't one (not as we have come to regard them). It might make the factoids section on Steve Wright's programme but that's about all it deserves. |
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Steeple. Hats off fella that's a cracking response, my old face even broke into a smile. I do like to look at trends but there has to be an underlying reason before we can apply them.
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I have a lot of time for Paul Jones, been buying his cheltenham book for a good number of years now. Always look forward to it.
I buy it mainly for his previews and write ups on the contendors for the main races, I rate his opinion. I'm not as big on the trends/stats as I used to be. Lessons have been learned...... They are useful if used properly, however they are normally abused. People who use them do so to justify their own opinion (bets) on a certain horse, or to rule out other contenders in a race, normally for no good reason; e.g. the 6yo GC stat above. The thing about trends is they change, and trends can be broken, the 11 stone rule in The Grand national is a prime example of this. You cannot be dogmatic with them, if you do you miss out. I still use trends to a certain extent, I find them useful for narrowing down a field. Some trends you cannot ignore, 7yo's in The Grand National is a good example. .... and if Nicky Henderson doesn't break his Neptune stat (fest 32/73) this year he never will.... |
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Fest Stat 26/73: 8/10 Champion Chase winners ran in Tingle Creek. No other Fest race has such high % in last 10 yrs
I suspect around 80% of Champion Chase losers also ran in the Tingle Creek Fest Stat 23/73: Of the last 5 years, just 7 of the 32 handicap chases between 2m5f-3m were won by horses under 10/1 But what percentage of the field in each started above 10/1? Fest Stat 22/73: Since 1988, the Irish Champion Hurdle winner has recorded 5 wins and 3 seconds in the Champion Hurdle. So since 1988 15 Irish Champion Hurdle winners did not finish in the first two at Cheltenham (quite a few might not even have run but unless we know that, the 'stat' is very weak). Fest Stat 19/73: Over half of Henderson's 37 Fest wnrs have been over 2m-2m1f & he has 6 ante-post favs in such races Ahh, but what percentage of his runners contested those races? Fest Stat 6/73: Last 16 Champion Hdle wnrs ran during same calendar year. In fact, only 1 of last 27 did not. Menorah? And what percentage of each field ran in each calendar year - 90%? 95%? I know Paul Jones and I like him and respect much of his work. But Stats and Trends in general have become the must-have item for Festival meetings yet statisticians would, I suspect, cast very serious doubt on they way they are presented as betting aids. Lies, damn lies and statistics, right enough! |
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Grade1.....Excellent post
As illustrated the trends/stats do divide opinion,to some they appear laughable and are rejected without hesitation. Others would have you believe they are the indestructable and profits are guaranteed. The truth is they are neither,and GI MAC makes a valid point,the lessons they can teach,can be very painful. Personally I would not be without them going into cheltenham or Aintree.These meetings are run at very similar times year in year out,with the same races being contested annually.This fact alone sets both apart from much of modern race meetings.Add to this that the vast mjority are primed for their intended target,anyone wagering on these meetings alone at least can feel their hard earned has a chance. Recent renewals have indeed been stat busters,with some interesting results.The champion hurdle alone has blown the 7,8,9 stat that was so strong for the championship races.Binocular,Punjabi et al have indeed seen the trends for this race appear to suit horses less than 7 yrs old.This has coincided with the recent watering policy and its debateable whether this has in some way affected results,just to make things easier for the punter. However the facts are that certain attributes will greatly increase the chance of success.Previous festival form,a winning prep run and in most cases being primed for March are stats that produce a high percentage of winners.Applying the stats to any given race as MPR rightly mentions must have reason,it can send any student of the game into complete meltdown when after three stats you find nothing can win! They are indeed a tool easily available to all punters,rarely do we use just the one tool in any other part of daily life. |
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Anyone know Paul Jones twitter name please?
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Hurricane Fly will bust any number of stats you like out the window on the Tuesday
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Always buy Paul Jones' book and follow him on twitter, very interesting fella
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Anyone know Paul Jones twitter name please?sportspunter01
FWIW I agree that the stats need to be treated with caution and are of varying quality due to underlying sample size etc ...I try to keep an open mind about them but some of them defintely change your perspective. For instance it would be hard to back Bobs Worth given the Henderson stat in longer novice hurdle ( and impression yard seemed to have him lower down pecking order before weekend ). There is probably a danger that when they become too widely and slavishly followed that they distort the market. The world and his mother seem to have them for aintree now and the value might be in being ( at least a bit ) contrarian there. |
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The only stat I use at the Festival is that I'll only have a wager on a horse that won LTO. You can usually dismiss about 75% of the field for every race. Ok, you'll miss a couple of winners along the way, but nearly 60% of winners over the last 10 years or so won LTO.
It certainly reduces form-study down to a manageable volume. |
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Henderson hadn't won the Coral cup - until last year.
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It's easy to knock things others say whether it be stats or opinions but all I can say is that three seasons ago Paul highligted from thirty ante post bets for the festival. Alberta's Run at 25's Tiger Cry at 25's Old Benny at 25's and other winners resulting in a 60 pt level stakes profit over the thirty bets. The year after he also made a profit although I believe it was only around 25-30 points. Last year he was slightly ahead as well. I'm not plugging anybody's service or his books etc.
I don't always agree with his view he is against Ghizao and pro Medermit presumably due to hurdle rating. My view is Medermit can't jump fast enough. Who knows who is right but Paul is one of the very few trying his hardest to help others have a happy festival. |
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I think we can all agree with your last sentence Hussard.
His books are always well-written and entertaining even and I defy anyone not to get at least a few new angles on horses and races at the Festival. His book dropping through the letterbox in late February is one of the signs that the Orgasm is nearly upon us and for that reason alone it's worth the money! |
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^ That is so true Roger, the books arival signals it's not long to go, which reminds me I must place my order.
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PJ is a very sound judge - he doesn't need the stats angle imo
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why do you need to wait till it drops through the door ,you add last years results to last years book
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is this the chelt fest preview book?
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Question: why do you need to wait till it drops through the door ,you add last years results to last years book
Ans: ''His book dropping through the letterbox in late February is one of the signs that the Orgasm is nearly upon us and for that reason alone it's worth the money! '' |