Cheltenham Festival
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Sportingbet have MM or Big Zeb @ 4/5 and the Field at Evs
Is it just me, or do people think that 4/5 is a good price, or would rather have the field at evs? This price was previously 8/11 last week, but has drifted after Master Minded scraped home and Big Zeb lost today.
However, I think it will be a different story come March. Big Zeb wouldn't have been 100% today, that's not an excuse and I think Golden Silver is a good horse, but obviously March will be the target. I also thought Geraghty maybe got there a bit too soon today and Big Zeb jumped well overall. Similarly with Master Minded, where McCoy admitted he gave a bad ride, in really testing ground and a cloud over the Nicholls yard still managed to win.
I've mentioned on other threads that I can't see past these two - and to be honest I still can't.
Golden Silver has a terrible Cheltenham record and imo needs a lot of cut in the ground (WM was talking about the Ryanair before today). Woolcombe Folly won impressively last time out, but surely MM or Big Zeb would have easily won that race off a mark of 154. Somersby still isn't a certain runner, and couldn't beat Master Minded despite the issues mentioned above. Captain Cee Bee was comprehensively beaten last time out, and while you can forgive that run it is hard to see him turning the form around with Big Zeb. Tataniano is very ground dependent and needs good ground, and you'd have to think if he was that good he would have run in last year's Arkle. It would be hard for Sizing Europe to turn the form around with Big Zeb, even with better ground and could still go the Ryanair. After these the rest in market are all 33/1+.
I think this year's Champion Chase will be a lot tougher race than last year, I think you still have to favour Big Zeb or Master Minded. Master Minded is now as low as 2/1 in some places, and can see him going off shorter on the day, so maybe 4/5 for the pair isn't too bad value - the bet will be void if MM or Big Zeb doesn't run.
Is it just me, or do people think that 4/5 is a good price, or would rather have the field at evs? This price was previously 8/11 last week, but has drifted after Master Minded scraped home and Big Zeb lost today.
However, I think it will be a different story come March. Big Zeb wouldn't have been 100% today, that's not an excuse and I think Golden Silver is a good horse, but obviously March will be the target. I also thought Geraghty maybe got there a bit too soon today and Big Zeb jumped well overall. Similarly with Master Minded, where McCoy admitted he gave a bad ride, in really testing ground and a cloud over the Nicholls yard still managed to win.
I've mentioned on other threads that I can't see past these two - and to be honest I still can't.
Golden Silver has a terrible Cheltenham record and imo needs a lot of cut in the ground (WM was talking about the Ryanair before today). Woolcombe Folly won impressively last time out, but surely MM or Big Zeb would have easily won that race off a mark of 154. Somersby still isn't a certain runner, and couldn't beat Master Minded despite the issues mentioned above. Captain Cee Bee was comprehensively beaten last time out, and while you can forgive that run it is hard to see him turning the form around with Big Zeb. Tataniano is very ground dependent and needs good ground, and you'd have to think if he was that good he would have run in last year's Arkle. It would be hard for Sizing Europe to turn the form around with Big Zeb, even with better ground and could still go the Ryanair. After these the rest in market are all 33/1+.
I think this year's Champion Chase will be a lot tougher race than last year, I think you still have to favour Big Zeb or Master Minded. Master Minded is now as low as 2/1 in some places, and can see him going off shorter on the day, so maybe 4/5 for the pair isn't too bad value - the bet will be void if MM or Big Zeb doesn't run.
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I never bet odds on but yours is a very reasonable summary of the race imo. Geraghty found himself in no man's land today and would ride the race differently given the chance. Golden Silver seemed reluctant and sketchy early doors and I think he ran through some pretty tired horses in sticky ground - I wouldn't fear him in March. I'd still be more inclined to bet BZ than couple him with MM
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Hey Well Chief,
It's a bit of a rip off that Sporting Bet have offered this 'special'. If you dutch their prices of 9/4 Master Minded and 7/2 Big Zeb u get about 1.88. If you are willing to go to Lads for their 4/1 Big Zeb offer (also nrnb) u get close to evens. |
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I agree with most of what you say Well Chief and as I've said elsewhere I think Big Zeb should (still) be favourite for the Champion Chase.
I'd just make an observation re Woolcombe Folly and the handicp he won on Dec 11th. He and Masterminded ran over the same C&D that day (MM in the rearranged Tingle Creek). Both carried 11-7 (WF down from 11-12 with a 5 lb claim). WF ran 1.4 secs faster, which equates to about 8 lengths. Obviously times don't make the race tactics etc obvious, but both races looked pretty true run by eye. So I don't think the WF form can be ignored. |
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Strontium - Mordin also made the point that WF ran faster than MM at every stage in their respective races on Dec 11th. In other words, there was a similar pace profile to the two races and WF was that bit better taking into account the sectional timings. As you say, both were reasonably true run races. WF is clearly quite a talent; I just have a slight worry about how well he will go in a bigger, more competitive field with a little less room and things happening that bit faster. And, of course, in better company he will have to be capable of making and withstanding more challenges than he has needed to in winning over fences so far.
I thought Tanks for That ran very well behind WF, incidentally. If they can get that one settled, I feel he could be very interesting returned to fences in handicap company off his current mark. |
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AKA - interesting, I wasn't aware of the sectionals. As you say, how up and coming horses deal with a higher quality field of high class jumpers (etc) as they move up in class is frequently the interesting and intangible thing. However, the CC is likely to have a small field again (only 21 entries at this stage).
I also agree about Tanks for That - of interest for the Grand Annual. |