Cheltenham Festival
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Now before I start this isn’t a tip because sadly the 300s+ that was available have been snapped up by myself and a few mates.
That said I thought I would put my thoughts up for discussion.
Ok so my starting point is tomorrow's cleeve hurdle.
Currently 3rd or 4th Favourite for the race he is the Top Rated horse in the field and is getting weight from the likes of Grand Crus, Spirit River and Fair Along (all who are much lower in the betting for the world hurdle)
Looking into the form the main thing that sticks out for me is how much this horse has improved for a step up in trip.
Starting the season 2nd at Cheltenham over 2m he won a non race at 1/4 nto before going in over 2m4f at Taunton of a mark of 133.
Looking to follow up over the same course and distance the next month of a stone higher in the weights he went down fighting to Pipes Dynaste.
Given a great ride from the front the Pipe runner stole 6L on the home turn only holding on by a shd on the line.
After this run Organisateur was another 7lbs and stepped up to 2m5f for the Lanzarote.
Travelling well and coming to take up the race at the 2nd last the horse and the jockey seemed to lose concentration and he veered violently to the left.
A lot has been made of how he nearly took out the eventual winner James De Vassey but in fact the impact on that horse was minimal and he kicked 5 or 6L ahead of the Nicholls horse. Once Ian had him back on a straight line he picked up and managed to get back within 2L of the winner.
As mentioned above he is now rated 159 and goes into tomorrows race looking for further improvement and I am of the opinion that the 3m trip help.
One other major point I would like to make is that on watching his recent races you would struggle to see a better jumper of a hurdle. He is very low and efficient and can generally make a length over them.
If he wins tomorrow even with his weight allowance I see him at very worst being 3rd Favourite for the World Hurdle.
For all of the ones that will say Big Bucks can’t be beat - all good things come to an end at some point.
Stay Lucky
abbott
That said I thought I would put my thoughts up for discussion.
Ok so my starting point is tomorrow's cleeve hurdle.
Currently 3rd or 4th Favourite for the race he is the Top Rated horse in the field and is getting weight from the likes of Grand Crus, Spirit River and Fair Along (all who are much lower in the betting for the world hurdle)
Looking into the form the main thing that sticks out for me is how much this horse has improved for a step up in trip.
Starting the season 2nd at Cheltenham over 2m he won a non race at 1/4 nto before going in over 2m4f at Taunton of a mark of 133.
Looking to follow up over the same course and distance the next month of a stone higher in the weights he went down fighting to Pipes Dynaste.
Given a great ride from the front the Pipe runner stole 6L on the home turn only holding on by a shd on the line.
After this run Organisateur was another 7lbs and stepped up to 2m5f for the Lanzarote.
Travelling well and coming to take up the race at the 2nd last the horse and the jockey seemed to lose concentration and he veered violently to the left.
A lot has been made of how he nearly took out the eventual winner James De Vassey but in fact the impact on that horse was minimal and he kicked 5 or 6L ahead of the Nicholls horse. Once Ian had him back on a straight line he picked up and managed to get back within 2L of the winner.
As mentioned above he is now rated 159 and goes into tomorrows race looking for further improvement and I am of the opinion that the 3m trip help.
One other major point I would like to make is that on watching his recent races you would struggle to see a better jumper of a hurdle. He is very low and efficient and can generally make a length over them.
If he wins tomorrow even with his weight allowance I see him at very worst being 3rd Favourite for the World Hurdle.
For all of the ones that will say Big Bucks can’t be beat - all good things come to an end at some point.
Stay Lucky
abbott
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Replies: 25
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if organisateur wins the cleeve hurdle i,ll give up the game is this the same horse that got stuffed at ascot by dunraven storm and was beaten in a h,cap hurdle at tuanton
place lay material ive got 12 genuine runners against him all of the field would of won off 130 at tuanton |
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Alverado I take it you didnt read my reasoning?
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alvarado, you obviously have a different opinion to the handicapper if youre using being beaten in a class 4 hurdle as reasoning against him. the handicapper thinks hes improved
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agree bigbucksanders.
3m is the key to this horse. |
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Agree with you abbott.Odds of around 7/1 for tomorrows race appeal far greater to me though than the current best price available of 40/1 for the World Hurdle.
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he needs to have improved 4st to have any chance cant have it on my mind
do u think these horses would of won at tuanton off 130 something organisateur couldnt do Spirit river fair along benalem arcalis restless harry grand crus even horses like mobaasher ,gwanako,and kayf aramis |
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Rated 159 imo not 130
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Which is higher than Grand Crus and Spirit River
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4st lol
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I think Mobaasher is the value here tbh. Won a handicap lto off top weight in heavy ground. His first run of the season he stayed at the track when not fit, again conceding lumps of weight.
On his olds form with Nicholls he has placed in Garde 2 and 1's. The majority of this field are coming here via handicaps, just like Mobaasher. 25/1 is an ew poke for me. |
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we,ll see tomorow wont we if u like backing horses thta get beat in novice hurdles/h,cap hurdles in a grade 2 agaist genuine graded horses thats down to u
quickest way to the poorhouse |
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* stayed on
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HE HAS IMPROVED ALVARADO
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so has whispering death under wilson renwick
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Bensalem looks the one to beat tomorrow in my opinion, ran a fine race behind Quevega (gave her 5lbs) at the Punchestown Festival over 3m finishing in front of Mourad (gave him 1lb) who has since hacked up twice.
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dont think so. will need the race and he was very sick so hard to know if ability remains
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Slight worry today with Nicholls comments regarding running to soon, that said he won 2 on the bounce March April last
year with only a few extra days in between. 'Organisateur: Has astounded me with his progress this season; he started off the campaign finishing second off 128 at Cheltenham, was a two length second in the Lanzarote at Kempton last time and now has been raised to 159. That makes him the highest rated hurdler in the race, so if you believe that mark he clearly has got to have a leading chance, getting weight. Now handicaps are out of the equation this was an obvious race to go for, but he is trying 3m for the first time and I hope that the race doesn't come too soon for him.' |
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thank you very much
I TOLD U SO |
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i apologise alvarado. Tidal bay is a group 1 flat horse imo over the max distance
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Mobaasher 4th
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has organisatuer finished yet
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3 runs in a short space of time seemed to pay the price, never at the races. Cant really go anywhere else at the festival so ill be happy with my 300+ on the day.
Admitidlly after yesterday the front 2 have it to lose. |
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totally outclassed and out of his depth he wont even run in the race he,ll be in the pertemps/coral cup
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lol
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