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27 Jan 11
11:11
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Date Joined:
10 Jul 07
....granted this year's renewal looks particularly competitive; there aren't that many that aren't I suppose.
Binocular, Peddlar's Cross, Minorah, Oscar Whisky, Hurricane Fly and those on the fringe like Dunguib etc (and you have to consider Dunguib if you like Menorah or Oscar Whisky).....can't wait for the race.
However, Mille Chief....looks like it is still improving rapidly. It was ultra impressive last time out, where the horse that won last Saturday's Grade 2 hurdle was beaten 15 lengths by it receiving 15lb. For me that is the strongest single piece of form we have in this year's race. Prior to that Mille Chief ran another superb race facing the near impossible task of giving Aegean Dawn 22lbs. To make a race of it giving that to horse of huge potential was a hell of a feat.
Given there is probably further to come then the price (although it has tumbled in the last day on BF from 24 to around 15) is very attractive.
It also depends what opinion you have about some of the contenders. I'm not too convinced that Peddler's Cross will have the speed, I can see this needing a trip and fences. Of Minorah, Dunguib and Oscar Whisky I probably like Oscar best and have a little bit tucked away on that. Hurricane Fly has always looked superb to me but then again it (through no fault of its own) just keeps beating that same, slightly lower than top class, horses; also in small fields and in a bog. I'm pretty convinced Hurricane will act in a big field and at a fast pace but it does have a small tendency to just jump right; also history has shown it can be a bit fragile and for those reasons I'd leave that one out. Binocular is a spring horse for me and it will almost certainly run its race and will be bang there; I'll just be a little surprised if there is not something lurking that proves to be a notch above that. Last year's renewal didn't look the greatest, whilst it looked visually impressive i'm not convinced beating Khyber Kim 3.5 lengths is that startling.
All in all you could make a case for about 10 of them this year. I just think that come the day Mille will be Chief.
Binocular, Peddlar's Cross, Minorah, Oscar Whisky, Hurricane Fly and those on the fringe like Dunguib etc (and you have to consider Dunguib if you like Menorah or Oscar Whisky).....can't wait for the race.
However, Mille Chief....looks like it is still improving rapidly. It was ultra impressive last time out, where the horse that won last Saturday's Grade 2 hurdle was beaten 15 lengths by it receiving 15lb. For me that is the strongest single piece of form we have in this year's race. Prior to that Mille Chief ran another superb race facing the near impossible task of giving Aegean Dawn 22lbs. To make a race of it giving that to horse of huge potential was a hell of a feat.
Given there is probably further to come then the price (although it has tumbled in the last day on BF from 24 to around 15) is very attractive.
It also depends what opinion you have about some of the contenders. I'm not too convinced that Peddler's Cross will have the speed, I can see this needing a trip and fences. Of Minorah, Dunguib and Oscar Whisky I probably like Oscar best and have a little bit tucked away on that. Hurricane Fly has always looked superb to me but then again it (through no fault of its own) just keeps beating that same, slightly lower than top class, horses; also in small fields and in a bog. I'm pretty convinced Hurricane will act in a big field and at a fast pace but it does have a small tendency to just jump right; also history has shown it can be a bit fragile and for those reasons I'd leave that one out. Binocular is a spring horse for me and it will almost certainly run its race and will be bang there; I'll just be a little surprised if there is not something lurking that proves to be a notch above that. Last year's renewal didn't look the greatest, whilst it looked visually impressive i'm not convinced beating Khyber Kim 3.5 lengths is that startling.
All in all you could make a case for about 10 of them this year. I just think that come the day Mille will be Chief.
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He's had 6 career runs, is a five year old and has never been to cheltenham. He can't win this renewal. Plus any value he had is long long gone.
If he won it'd be the biggest shock I'll have ever seen at the festival ever. At best he can run an admirable 4th I'd say.
Might be a player next season though when he's older and more experienced.
If he won it'd be the biggest shock I'll have ever seen at the festival ever. At best he can run an admirable 4th I'd say.
Might be a player next season though when he's older and more experienced.
But any 5yo who finishes 3rd or 4th this year I will back antepost for next years race.
One 5yo winner from 90 runners since See You Then.
Not too many of those had a chance. I think the age thing is pretty irrelevant to be honest....if you're good enough you are old enough. Also, 6 runs is plenty enough; I'll point to the likes of Royal Gait and Aldebrook. I think the key thing is that the horse looks pure quality, looks to be improving, jumps well, travels well and appears to have a bit foot at the end. Time will tell but even at current odds I don't think all of the value has gone. I can see it going off at single figures on the day.
It's more experience than age though as katchit was a very experienced 5yo (13th start over hurdles, plus 16 stats on the flat) and course specialist who won a weak renewal where the fav got injured.
Even the mighty binocular found punjabi too good in 09. He's only had six hurdle starts.
So in a year where we have 4 experienced and talented 6/7yo's heading the market, the chances of the inexperienced younger horses are diminished even more then normal years.
Keep an eye out though for one who runs well, the record of placed horses in the previous years race running in their third season over hurdles is good, inca, punjabi and binocular in the past five years alone.
Even the mighty binocular found punjabi too good in 09. He's only had six hurdle starts.
So in a year where we have 4 experienced and talented 6/7yo's heading the market, the chances of the inexperienced younger horses are diminished even more then normal years.
Keep an eye out though for one who runs well, the record of placed horses in the previous years race running in their third season over hurdles is good, inca, punjabi and binocular in the past five years alone.
You'd be surprised how many had chances.
Two beaten fav's in recent years.
This is a very very good renewal also.
Two beaten fav's in recent years.
This is a very very good renewal also.
Interesting that King rates this one as a better horse than Katchit. Of course, Mille Chief would probably need to be quite a bit better than Katchit at his best, to cut it in the likely 2011 CH field.
Of the outsiders that have come through in the market this season so far, Mille Chief is the one that most captures my imagination. Very difficult though to equate the form of a young horse in handicap company where he is up against (in all likelihood) mostly far lesser horses with the form needed to win a CH. And it is made harder by the fact that his last win was on heavy ground. Not sure how far you can rate that win through Tiger O'Toole either, as that one probably needed the run at Sandown and the shorter distance wouldn't have been in his favour. Aegean Dawn may prove very smart in time, but we don't have enough evidence at this stage to rate that one accurately with much confidence in the assessment.
Aegean Dawn quickened better than Mille Chief when they met this season, which he was entitled to with the weight concession so much in his favour. But I am not sure I have seen enough evidence of Mille Chief having enough speed to be backing him as a leading CH contender at this stage - he may well have that speed, but I would just like to see a bit more evidence of it on a decent surface. It would have been much more satisfactory from a punting angle had his win last time out been on ground with plenty of 'good' in the description.
Of the outsiders that have come through in the market this season so far, Mille Chief is the one that most captures my imagination. Very difficult though to equate the form of a young horse in handicap company where he is up against (in all likelihood) mostly far lesser horses with the form needed to win a CH. And it is made harder by the fact that his last win was on heavy ground. Not sure how far you can rate that win through Tiger O'Toole either, as that one probably needed the run at Sandown and the shorter distance wouldn't have been in his favour. Aegean Dawn may prove very smart in time, but we don't have enough evidence at this stage to rate that one accurately with much confidence in the assessment.
Aegean Dawn quickened better than Mille Chief when they met this season, which he was entitled to with the weight concession so much in his favour. But I am not sure I have seen enough evidence of Mille Chief having enough speed to be backing him as a leading CH contender at this stage - he may well have that speed, but I would just like to see a bit more evidence of it on a decent surface. It would have been much more satisfactory from a punting angle had his win last time out been on ground with plenty of 'good' in the description.
Fair points Aka. Although his run against Aegean Dawn was on Good/Soft and it they both quickened away from the 3r by a decent distance; I just think time will show it was impossible giving that weight to AD. I here what you are saying about showing evidence that it can quicken against good horses on quicker going; trouble is, if we had that he'd be trading single figures now.
I remember the esteem King held it in last season prior to its debut, it was ante post fav for the Triumph before picking up a small injury I believe. Accepting there are hundreds of talking horses each year, it is interesting that this one actually looks like living up to the early hype. What was most taking so far with it for me was the absolute ease that it tanked along last time out carrying bundles of weight. One of the things I like with horses in the Champion is the ability to travel with ease, on evidence so far I think Mille will do that.
I remember the esteem King held it in last season prior to its debut, it was ante post fav for the Triumph before picking up a small injury I believe. Accepting there are hundreds of talking horses each year, it is interesting that this one actually looks like living up to the early hype. What was most taking so far with it for me was the absolute ease that it tanked along last time out carrying bundles of weight. One of the things I like with horses in the Champion is the ability to travel with ease, on evidence so far I think Mille will do that.
Good points, Brownes Gazette. I certainly agree about the importance of looking for horses that travel with ease under demanding conditions (weight conceding or strong pace, for example) as a key factor in picking good CH contenders. It was that element I particularly liked in his performance last time and it marked him out for me as a very interesting speculative punt for the CH. Odds around 25/1 and higher were available then and that seemed to me about right given the speculative nature of the bet.
At the current price with the bookies, for myself I would probably want to be seeing a bit more evidence of what this one can do, either against better horses or on a better surface than it was for his most impressive performance so far, last time out. I could see the price on here drifting out to nearer 20, over the next few weeks as the Pricewise effect lessens, and that would be getting back to what I would consider reasonable for a very interesting, but essentially speculative bet (speculative because the horse is essentially being backed on perceived potential and impressive visual display - nothing wrong with this type of bet, imo, if the price supports it).
At the current price with the bookies, for myself I would probably want to be seeing a bit more evidence of what this one can do, either against better horses or on a better surface than it was for his most impressive performance so far, last time out. I could see the price on here drifting out to nearer 20, over the next few weeks as the Pricewise effect lessens, and that would be getting back to what I would consider reasonable for a very interesting, but essentially speculative bet (speculative because the horse is essentially being backed on perceived potential and impressive visual display - nothing wrong with this type of bet, imo, if the price supports it).
I found it amazing that Mille Chief wasn't enetered for the Totesport at Newbury which looked the natural next step - he either really fancies Salden Licht for that or thinks Mille Chief is definitely Champion material
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^ I'm hoping he really fancies Salden Licht. I have backed this one at 280/1 for the Champion based o the fact that his credentials are almost exactly the same as Mille Chief. Except that the form of his last win was probably a little stronger. If he wins the Stoatsport Trophy he will be rated in the 160s, which would give him a squeak.
Surely the 280/1 is not a bad throw for a few pennies?
Surely the 280/1 is not a bad throw for a few pennies?
when king gets on the subject of mille chief you get the distinct impression that he sees an absolute machine at home and is just waiting for the day we all get to see it too....if you support the horse you are buying into that ....although we are starting to see it bit by bit now.
That's why it's a watching brief for me on this one with a view to backing him post race for next years champion given improvement from 5 to 6. There will be clamour to back the first two home that value on this horse could be big especially if he comes about 4th.
I am not wanting to profess any inside info here however thought I would inform you of a chat I had with Choc Thornton. I was at Doncaster in March last year and Choc had won on Junior at the meeting. As those of you who know Donny the jockeys after collecting their trophies then have a fairly long walk back to the weighing room through the crowd.
I asked Choc how MC was as he had picked up his injury only a couple of weeks before and he said it was only minor but he will be out for Chletenham but may run at Aintree. He said that if Alan is not 110% certain though they will put him away for the season as they felt he is by far and away the classiest juvenile they have ever had and that he will be top class.
As I say, nothing new here but I got the impression he was very excited about him this year. Mind you he then went on to say VPU should run a good race at the festival, which obviously did not go to plan!!
I asked Choc how MC was as he had picked up his injury only a couple of weeks before and he said it was only minor but he will be out for Chletenham but may run at Aintree. He said that if Alan is not 110% certain though they will put him away for the season as they felt he is by far and away the classiest juvenile they have ever had and that he will be top class.
As I say, nothing new here but I got the impression he was very excited about him this year. Mind you he then went on to say VPU should run a good race at the festival, which obviously did not go to plan!!
There are some pretty comical prices offered by the bookies this year Antepost for the festival (as every year of course) but a best price of 14/1 for this horse has to rate as one of the most ridiculous I have ever seen. The horse has been beaten twice this year off 136 on the good ground he will probably encounter in March and he hacks up in a bog at Sandown in what looks an average at best handicap and is suddenly a serious Champion Hurdle contender? Give me a break. Consider that he
a) has never raced in graded company
b) has never raced at cheltenham
c) his only win on ground faster than soft was a 2 length labored beating of Westlin Winds
d) is 5yo
Add to this the rock solid credentials of the first 4 in the market and personally I think anyone happy to take 14/1 is a fantasist.
a) has never raced in graded company
b) has never raced at cheltenham
c) his only win on ground faster than soft was a 2 length labored beating of Westlin Winds
d) is 5yo
Add to this the rock solid credentials of the first 4 in the market and personally I think anyone happy to take 14/1 is a fantasist.
echo that^,current price is laughable.
if this horse can finish in front ot this field,i will give up the game.From what i have seen from him so far just not good enough.
Serious amount of hype has followed him around since he started out,and yet to justify any of it.
Should be twice the price at least.
if this horse can finish in front ot this field,i will give up the game.From what i have seen from him so far just not good enough.
Serious amount of hype has followed him around since he started out,and yet to justify any of it.
Should be twice the price at least.
All horses are handicappers at the end of the day, they all have a mark so the fact that a horse has never run in a graded race shouldn't be too much of a worry. I backed Mille Chief at 125/1 after the Ascot race because I assessed it ran to a mark of about 158 in true form (Aegean Dawn about 157 which makes it still 12 lbs well in). So 158 isn't good enough (Binocular runs of 171) but he is open to improvement so current price seems about right. P.S I have wriiten else where that if AEGEAN DAWN turns up for a handicap of its mark of 145, its the best handicapped hurdler to tun at Cheltenham in my view in many many years.
One thing is for sue, if he hadn't got injured he wiuld have hacked up in the Triumph last season, what price would he be if he'd done that?
All about opinions, and yes it is a dark horse, but that's why it is trading as big as it has done. Obviously it has to progress again, it's just a case of how much you think it can. Personally, I think it only needs to progress a few lbs and it will be bang there; and all the evidence of its last two runs is that it is progressing at a fair old rate. The 'average' handicap that it bolted up in last time off top weight was boosted in the best way possible last weekend. The horse has an excellent chance.
indeed poor choice of words but my oppinion is that he would have slaughtered him
well after watching him last season,i find that hard to agree with.what form had he shown that entitled him to win the triumph?
CVByrne, I may be wrong but aren't you the guy that thought Kyber Kim was value at 16s. My good god! It could start now and it would beat Mille Chief home.
Without any improvement from its handicap win last time it would stand a chance; with normal improvement, the type you'd expect from such a lightly raced type, its chance increases to 'an excellent chance'.
Without any improvement from its handicap win last time it would stand a chance; with normal improvement, the type you'd expect from such a lightly raced type, its chance increases to 'an excellent chance'.
If Khyber Kim runs to anywhere near the form he showed in last years race he'll easily beat Mille Chief. Mille Chief may never in his career show that level of form.
Also to say Mille Chief has "an excellent chance", he's priced up at a 6.6% chance of winning after being tipped up by pricewise . He'd need to be a lot shorter than that to have an "excellent chance". I'd think he'd be a 20/1 shot at best, so he has anything but an excellent chance.
Also to say Mille Chief has "an excellent chance", he's priced up at a 6.6% chance of winning after being tipped up by pricewise . He'd need to be a lot shorter than that to have an "excellent chance". I'd think he'd be a 20/1 shot at best, so he has anything but an excellent chance.
You are right about how much of the market it is taking up but this is where value comes in. By your estimation nothing has an excellent chance unless it is taking up more than 50% of the market. You'll win by following the sheep some of the time; it is going against the flow where you'll pick up some value. Obviously it'll never happen but I wouldn't mind even money Mille against the slow Kyber in a match race. Opinions opinions, only time will tell. However, post Champion Hurdle, I think there is aa fair chance you'll be bowing to my genius else changing your username.
strewth^,
MC has shown absolutely no form anywhere near what KK has,but good luck with your hunch,it just may improve enough to be competitive,but i cant see it myself.
MC has shown absolutely no form anywhere near what KK has,but good luck with your hunch,it just may improve enough to be competitive,but i cant see it myself.
"going against the grain" you started this thread AFTER the horse was tipped up by Segal.
Granted CV I did. However, I have been backing it long before. Not best to start shouting about something when you've still to back it after all. As it happens, as soon as that dope mentioned it I laid it back to cover stake. Now a free bet.
^ With posts like that I'm suspecting Browns Gazette is Eric Morris in disguise
It was more to do with the esteem King held it in last season bud (nothing in his yard could get it off the bridle apparently), I don't think he got the chance to show his best, I suppose what I'm saying isn't any kind of profound insight at this point. There were only two juviniles that really interested me last season as top prospects for the future, Me Voici (no longer with us) and Mille Chief. From what we know now any way,he would probably have beaten Solditano.
yeh he did talk him up a fair bit.
Really not sure about him winning the Triumph,of course he could have,but the way the race was run,who knows!!
Just cannot see him being good enough from what i have seen,especially with what looks a real quality field,but he is another improving horse so i guess its possible.
Really not sure about him winning the Triumph,of course he could have,but the way the race was run,who knows!!
Just cannot see him being good enough from what i have seen,especially with what looks a real quality field,but he is another improving horse so i guess its possible.
Unclepuncle....you've truly insulted me!!
Ya Id say if he ran 4th of 5th King would be delighted and he can really gear him for it next season, that said this year a horse could run the race of its life and finish 7th, I think we might see an Arkle winner in this years race myself such is the depth.
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