Cheltenham Festival
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After the run at Ascot today I think that was a pleasing comeback run on only his fourth ever hurdles start, and first run for over 300 days.
Ran very freely to post, ran wide all the way round and cruised through the field until he got tired. Barry Geraghty was very easy on him over the half a mile because there are obviously bigger targets in mind.
Out to 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle and I think that is a good each way price. He will hopefully come on a lot for the run and the ground at Ascot appears to be very soft.
The last three Triumph Hurdle winners have gone on to the Champion Hurdle the next season and been placed or won. Katchit won, Celestial Halo placed and Zaynar placed.
Obviously Henderson has Binocular, but Punjabi was the really unfancied second string that year and won.
Any thoughts??
Ran very freely to post, ran wide all the way round and cruised through the field until he got tired. Barry Geraghty was very easy on him over the half a mile because there are obviously bigger targets in mind.
Out to 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle and I think that is a good each way price. He will hopefully come on a lot for the run and the ground at Ascot appears to be very soft.
The last three Triumph Hurdle winners have gone on to the Champion Hurdle the next season and been placed or won. Katchit won, Celestial Halo placed and Zaynar placed.
Obviously Henderson has Binocular, but Punjabi was the really unfancied second string that year and won.
Any thoughts??
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blew up todat but form of triumph doesnt look gd enough to me
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My only worry is that Henderson stated today he was hard to train backend of last year because he was bolting all over the place. He pulled way to hard in todays race but he settles for the Champ he has a chance.
That said this race is wide open for me its the most competative since Hardy Eustaces 2nd. |
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Both are fair points.
Last year's Triumph hasn't really worked out well this year. I do think he is a cut above the rest in that race though, and nothing ever came out of Celestial Halo's Triumph but he still progressed well (Franchoek was evens fav that year!) And yes, Abbott, if he can settle I definately think he has place claims for the Champion |
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so when he was 5 to 2 fav last night for todays race you expected him to be hammered by a 40 to 1 shot and loch derg before winning the champion hurdle
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He's not got a hope in this years Champion Hurlde. He's underpriced if anything at 40/1
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1st time poster 22 Jan 11 15:59
so when he was 5 to 2 fav last night for todays race you expected him to be hammered by a 40 to 1 shot and loch derg before winning the champion hurdle spot on. not a prayer |
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Mille Chief got absolutely stuffed on his first run back this year after 300 days off and he is now prominent in the Champion Hurdle betting. Mille Chief was only running off 136 in that race and Soldatino was on 148 today, so it's not as bad as the bare result says.
Zaynar got beat last year at 1/14 and then ran third in the Champion Hurdle He should come on a lot for this on ground that was too soft, when he ran too free and the jockey was really easy on him. Theres a lot left in reserve imo and today was a good prep for a spring campaign |
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Seriously, people trying to tip up outsiders in the best Champion field in many years. Nonsense. I mean I think this is comical.
Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross, Menorah. Light years better than Millie chief and Soldatino. |
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I'd say that it is comical that you would completely write off a Triumph winner - we don't know how good he is so I think saying he has zero chance is premature.
There are more than four horses in the Champion, and I'm not saying in any way that Saldatino is going to win the Champion: I have said that I think he has got place claims. If he turns up on decent ground then I think he deserves respect. The point I was making about Mille Chief is that he is now 20/1 for the Champ after he got beat off a rating 12 pounds lower than Saldatino. I have not backed Mille Chief and I have not backed Saldatino. If you look at other threads on bets so far you will see I have £40 on Hurricane Fly at 14/1, the biggest price he has ever been for the Champion. I have also got a double on Cue Card and Peddlers Cross, where if Cue Card wins I'll have 135/1 on Peddlers Cross. The recent record of Triumph winners is very good; albeit in weaker Champions. Imo you can't completely write off horses that have won a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival, when they are young and improving. |
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i'd rather back walkon than soldatino if i was looking for an outsider in the champion
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walkon BOUNCE FACTOR
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Yeah because the Champion Hurdle is littered with horses who won the Triumph the previous season. Katchit being the only one, and he won a shocking renewal of the race where the fav got injured. Plus Katchit had an unbelievable record at Cheltenham and had had 4 runs that season and 9 career runs over hurdles.
Soldatino had had 3 hurdle runs, he'll have had 4 max going into the Champion Hurdle. He has zero chance, absolutely zero. |
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cvbyrne- to say he has no chance is stupid, the horse was the obv class horse of the rae today travelled like a champ hurdle contender all the way just didnt get home but tha was surely down to the length of absence, this horse will have another spin round newbury early feb and then to chelt and will be a lively oputside chnace for the champ
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Persian War won the Champion the year after winning the Triumph.
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giving weight away, on sticky ground, cruised for majority of race and looked like going best until not finding enough and being hampered, at 3f more than champion hurdle... would be dangerous to write off imo. also with regards to the triumph form last year, i would imagine that this years champion will be much faster and his cruising speed will be beneficial, and if mille chief had run when was ante post fav for ages, then his wins giving away stacks of weight (i kno not great opposition) would look far better. course form, decent jock, i wouldnt rule out
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Decent jock ? Who do you think will ride him ?
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to anyone watching him, today was quite clearly a prep - unlike walkon who was trying to win. drifted in the betting and the jockey didn't ask him to do anything more than ease into contention on the home turn. trotted up and let the others fight it out - different day in mind - every chance it's the first day at cheltenham.
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geraghty flyingbolt
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Geraghty will ride Oscar Whisky.
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no chance - all evidence points to it being a weak triumph last year. mille chief of course didnt run so exclude him but beating barizan a few lengths is miles off champion form
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unless peddlers cross runs in welsh champion in 2 weeks and beats him well, and oscar whisky doesnt run in champion, maybe going for world hurdle as entered
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soul walkon may have tried to win but you need to be realistic, he has loads of work left of him yesterday and will improve a bundle for the race.
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IMO Binocular would have skuiced up in Punjabi's champion but for not being nearly fit. He took a blow at the bottom of the hill because the trainer wasn't able to get him fit because of the snow. Besides him and Katchit, however, 5 y/o's do have a poor race. I think Soldat is more likely to win a nice handicap.
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not sure he will be good enough but deserves another chance,that race yesterday is no way of judging him.He ran an extra mile or so before the race!! He travelled superbly during the race and looked a class apart till understandably emptying very quickly.
He is a young horse with any amount of improvement and cannot be totally dismissed on the strenght of that. However it is hard to see him finishing in front of a fair few of these,simply cos they are a very good lot this year,but he does deserve another chance before being totally written off imo. |
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also yesterdays race was 2m3f right? obviously you need a horse that will stay the trip wekk for the CH but the way he travelled for 2m was class under top weight. He has cheltenham form, will improve for the run. not to mention running free, no earplus, and racing wide. i just took 100s, thanks whoever that was
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^^^^ Agree with everything you say Alex. I'm glad there are a few people who agree with me because I thought I was thought I was going to get slated for posting this!!
S James are top price (excluding exchanges) at 40/1 and go top 4 ew instead of top 3 like everyone else. I think its worth a few quid. Hopefully that race will bring him on a lot, have a nice prep run in Feb and then to the Champion. Obviously he seems hard to train and only run a few times, but his run in the Adonis hurdle last year was also really impressive. Brushed aside Toubab by an easy 7 lengths giving him lots of weight, and travelled brilliantly. |
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the early market told the story with Soldatino, drifting when it seems all other Henderson horses have been backed early then winning. Market said he wasnt going to be breaking blood vessels conceding weight in this Cheltenham prep. Which race at the Festival?
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I agree it was a very encouraging return. I hadn't realised SJ were going 4 places, and the place part of that does seem more than fair. I think though the 20/1 about him for the Totesport Trophy is a much better bet, Henderson had Punjabi finish 2nd in this race after just one run that season as well (before finishing 3rd in the CH) and besides having good chances of making the places I can actually say I seriously see him winning it, which I honestly can't for the CH.
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I also agree that it was a promising return and having backed him ante-post for the Newbury contest prior to yesterday's race, I was satisfied with the effort as a prep. Thought the horse travelled like the best animal in the race until the home turn and was given an easy time of it by the jockey when he clearly became tired.
I am however only interested in the horse for Newbury not Cheltenham. |
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Waterwheel,
FYI Charlie McCann was on ATR this morning and he said the offer of 4 places in the Champion Hurdle is on until mid February. |
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Thanks wellchief, that's good to know. I've had another look at the race and taken some of the 20's for the Totesport with Laddies, I'll keep dwelling on the Champion for now though.
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carver ...if had a £1 for bino fan that bangs on about him not being fit ....lol...dont think hes the horse he was...the king is dead etc etc
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