Cheltenham Festival
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These days I tend to try and find one or two horses, usually novice hurdlers, in the run up to the Festival. Maoi's victory at Weatherby intrigues me...having watched the race many times I am left with the impression that it was really impresive!Jumped like a pro and came round the field in 'Dunguib like' fashion. 14 runs on the flat in the summer aside, this horse could be the cinderella horse of the festival. I know nothing about the trainer or her plans.. but was so taken I went out and backed it for the Fred Winter at 40's...might regret this after Saturday!
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backed it for triumph myself at a price probably be burning the ticket by sat nite haha
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This horse beat the second fav for the Triumph by 15L on its first run. Very impressive. Still 50/1 for the Triumph, the best value in the race. If the trainer was more fashionable Moai Chinn Tire would be the fav. Very good trainer with limited string, good and under rated stable jockey.
The better the ground the better the chance, but Cheltenham is normally Good ground. |
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disagree as nicky henderson said after that run that they ran grandouet completely the wrong race and needs to be held up. which it then did behind sam winner giving weight away, and then improved further in winning as less green. wouldnt read too much into the race this horse beat grandouet in. only my opinion of course :)
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Everyone makes excuses for Granduet, but it was beaten by a horse having its first run by 15L Maoi Chinn Tire can only improve. This was a Listed race, Moai C T won by 9L comforably.
Still available @ 50/1 with some firms VC and SJ. |
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good luck with ur bet, im not on grandouet. im not a huge grandouet fan or anything, just believe that trainer said straight away that race tactics were awful and would be much better when held up, ran a much nicer race behind sam winner next time out and appears to be coming on with each run
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it cant win, was too good to be true! if he could replicate that run he'd win the trimuph hard held!my suspicion is that they went too hard early on and the race fell apart! youll also notice nickys weent firing at the time AND granduet was ridden prominently, unlike his latter runs were he is clearly better held up.
too good to be true but would be happy to see him win! |
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barry completely eased off grandouet when he knew he was beat, so the fact that is was a 15 length beating may as well be 50 lengths. take him out the race (because it was absolutely clearly not his true running), then it was a good win over a poor field. of course he can improve, and he probably is a tad overpriced at 50/1, but even with a fashionable trainer he wouldn't be single figures imo.
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Poor horses dont win listed races first time out. Granouet was eased down when beaten.(Beaten) If they meet on the same ground at Cheltenham I would be on Moai Chinn Tire to confirm the form, those who have strong views against can always lay the horse.
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Listed race in name only, let's be honest. The runner-up (now rated 122) failed to win a class four novice hurdle next time. two kisses (now rated 123) was miles behind sam winner with grandouet comfortably reversing the form. jubail is rated 121, bonfire knight was beaten a mile in a class 4 novice hurdle as was dr finley.
You have to take Grandouet out because he has now gone on to finish second to Sam Winner, cantered all over A Media Luz (who would've won very easily but for falling two out the other day against some highly thought of horses) to win easily, with the third also coming out to batter a field of novices. I think when it's so obvious Grandouet didn't give his true running saying 'This horse beat the second fav for the Triumph by 15L on its first run.' is just too naive and doesn't contribute anything towards how good MCT potentially is. |
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horse still travelled supremely and is overpriced... lets see how he follow sup
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I agree with everything said here... but hey!.. if this was a NH French import and we knew nothing about him we would be saying 'exceptional prospect'...yes?..ground might be the key although he has won on soft on the flat..Saturday against older horses will tell us a lot more, but at 50s.. value or what? ( watch the race again, wach his jumping... you can almost see the horse thinking 'why are we going so slow?)
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The Listed race in name only was contested by horses from top yards, the fav that day was a Nicholls hores Domtaline who had won its previous race a class 4 by 25L.
Moai Chinn Tire won confortably on its first outing and could have done no more or been more impressive. All the excuses regarding the other horses can be made time again and good luck to those who have backed them for the festival. However on form Moai Chinn Tire should be the favorite for the Triumph and it is foolish to discount this horse due to an unpopular trainer. If it was trained by Nicholls,King or Henderson it would be the favourite. My point is it is the value bet in an open and dificult race. |
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The horse doesn't have the pedigree for the race, and fits none of the stats.
Out of a sprinter (sire), ran in sprints on the flat...and looks exposed in that sphere, where he didn't exactly reach the dizzy heights of even listed race quality. Too low a RPR attainment. The horse is a big price for a reason. I remember watching the Wetherby race in some disbelief at the time. I'm putting the result down as a freak outcome, which I can't see happening again. Everything about the horse says it shouldn't happen. ....but I guess seeing is believing and the Wetherby race is there for to be seen. Not for me though. |
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You've got to BELIEVE
 lufcwafee !! like I said cinderella horse...be interesting to see how the bookies price him up on Sat. |
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watching the videos of it on the gallops i wouldnt be suprised if plenty pocket hacked up saturday
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I agree he could be slight value, but to say on form he should be the favourite is slightly ridiculous.
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Grandouet was quite impressive today, but again what is the form worth. He beat Two Kisses by 6L, Moai Chinn Tire beat Two Kisses by 10L on its debut.
For all those who keep knocking the form, it still matches that of Grandouet. Moai Chinn Tire still the value bet in the Triumph. |
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totally agree orion...shame we did'nt get to see him run today...they must be dying to get him back on track to make sure it was'nt a dream..
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Why is Grandouet fav for the Triumph.
Moai Chinn Tire beat him by 15L the third horse that day was Two Kisses beaten 10L. Today he beat Two Kisses by 6L. On form Grandouet has improved by 11L but that still puts him 4L behind MCT. This was on the softer ground he prefers. Moai Chinn Tire still has the best form and those who keep knocking should now be able to see it stands up against other horses. MCT still available at 50/1 SJ & VC. |
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il be honest and say i havnt watched the maoi chinn tire race, but grandouet p*ssed up today, on bridle and easy.very classy
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Paul4
You need to see the race MCT won with ease. All the form stands up and can only improve. |
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fair enough orion, as i say i havnt seen it. will do sometime this week. triumph is in no way a race i see as one to make money on this year. i think plenty pocket will definitely come on ALOT nto... i think grandouet was very classy today and lto, and also at cheltenham giving weight away. today he won with ease on a day when everything seemed to struggle, especially those giving away weight
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Paul... search the horse on Sporting Life site ..and watch the race for free
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yeh cheers jsilkycut, will do soon, just not seeing the triumph as a market i want to be playing in at the moment so been rewatching other horses in the big races. week off this week so will definitely watch it (and will of course be watching through rose tinted specs) :D
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...and why not..? all part of the fun Paul...lol
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yeh ante post i've just taken big prices on things, not had any serious bets on shorter price horses, dont see the risk worth it. and with the triumph market so open and many horses not even having had a run yet, i've mostly left it alone :) surely there will be an irish juvenile or 2 come into the fray at some point?!
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you could be right Paul ..trouble is time is running out.... like you I try and find a dark horse that is just below the radar (much more fun)Peddlers was a massive price a month before the Neptune because he was Northern trained and people underestimated the form..MCT is a similar animal....he probably wont win anything else.. but if he's as good as that first run, what a pick!
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jumping is a worry, but price more than reflects that. worthy e/w punt.
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yeh i know what u mean, i like indian daudaie. seems the only one of nicholls left that has been hyped up n not run yet. entered in the juvenile at irish hennessy meeting at leopardstown so i'd guess its a decent sort. moose moran is running this week aswel for henderson
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can i ask why that makes you like him? (hyped but not yet run)
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no i mean i like him as has decent form in france and looks nice in the schooling videos. connections must think a fair amount of him to enter at cheltenham sat annd at leopardstown for the grade 1 juvenile on irish hennessy day. with the hype i meant they've hyped up a few and said after that they probably have better still to run, so think this could be one of them.
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Maoi Chinn Tire ran 21 times on the flat but never raced beyond 7f, why?
Surely a truely ran race on the new course would stretch his stamina. |
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did'nt appear to be a problem at Wetherby BB...he saw it out really well ...yes they went too fast early on but he still picked them up and was'nt being caught at the end..I supose hes used to going flat out for 7 furlongs ..so provided he can stay in touch this speed will always be useful
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it's running in the Triumph Trial on Sat. at Cheltenham... looks like all the 50s has gone although WH are going 40/1 ..
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just noticed this thread after posting my own. lol
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Still the value bet in the triumph hurdle, could be one of the favourites after saturday.
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whatever wins on saturday will be favourite shortly after... MCT will be about 8/1 if he does
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The horse is a pretty low grade and seemingly exposed sprinter. That it won at Wetherby can't be disputed; what can be disputed is what the race amounted to. My opinion, effectively nothing. They raced off far too quickly and fell in a hole. The horse has pretty much zero chance of getting 2 miles in a competitive race; or at least getting the two miles within 50 lengths of those going past the post first.
Saturday....no chance whatsoever. |
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Brownes...I think you are dismissing the race too lightly..Orion summs it up earlier in this post, listed race..full of winners and he hacks up by 9l..? whatever you say about how the race was run the time was OK and the hoses behind (Granduet) have more than franked the form. Forget was he's done before ..at 40/50/1 got to be interesting... like I say cinderella horse could be nothing might be something very special..
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