Cheltenham Festival
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I remember a most useful thread along these lines from a few years back, where forumites basically tried to highlight those horses who, for one reason or another, were very unlikely winners at the Festival. Ideally, we should try to find those that are fairly well fancied, because getting rid of those towards the head of the market obviously opens the door to grabbing some value.
I will put up Sizing Europe to begin with, on the understanding that he is being aimed at the Gold Cup. Simply won't have the stamina for it IMO and has yet to post a performance over fences that comes close to making him good enough.
I will put up Sizing Europe to begin with, on the understanding that he is being aimed at the Gold Cup. Simply won't have the stamina for it IMO and has yet to post a performance over fences that comes close to making him good enough.
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Long Run - Gold Cup
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Can we make reasons compulsory?
Not that I think Long Run will win the Gold Cup, but what a tediously dull thread if it's just a list of horses who apparently can't win but in actual probably can. Rationale, people! In saying this, I have to admit I'm struggling to find one towards the head of the market in the main races that I can near enough rule out. Long Run would be the main one, based on Cheltenham form and stiff opposition in Imperial Commander, Denman, Kauto, and the lively outsiders of Diamond Harry and Pandorama. |
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sorry joist.
You have just given my reason though,cheers. |
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This is the 'Long Run at Cheltenham, sample size of two, in one of which he produced his best ever rating prior to his demolition job last Saturday' we're talking about, right?
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I'll go with Poquellin
He may have improved on last year but had no excuse behind Alberta's Run last year and may well have been 3rd had Ruby Walsh not acted like a complete B ollox against J'y Vole Add in horses like (some are only possible) Somersby, Punchestowns, Kalahari King, Riverside Theatre, Noland etc and this year's renewal could be even better than last years |
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Agree there Roger, also trainer reckoned he was over the top in RSA, couldn't rule him out on course form
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Masterminded - Still not convinced he is back to his best and thing big zeb will put him to the sword again and his prices is terrible
Cue Card - Bumper winners have terrible record in supremes and still might be going for champion which he will not finish in the 1st 5 if he does |
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Also throw in Hurricane Fly - never been to cheltenham, beats the same horses every race filter in the Monjue factor for cheltenham and his price is terrible you couldnt even bet it e/w
Peddlers and menorah have better creditials |
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The Fly....cheltenham will frighten him to death....no gentle jog round Leopardstown here boy!
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Menorah - Champion Hurdle.
The record of Supreme einners in the following year's Champion Hurdle is appalling. Beating Get Me Out Of Here and Dunguib a neck and a length then winning a handicap and taking care of two novices thereafter means he is a laughable price when any one of Binocular, Peddlers Cross or Hurricane Fly could have easily (imo) done the same. Kauto Star - Gold Cup Too old. Too many races. Was in the process of getting pumped in last year's race before he fell. Time's up I'm afraid. Wouldn't want to take Time For Rupert at 11/4 either cos feel there must be some others co come out of the woodwork in next month. On that note, the award for the most ridiculous training regime given to a horse this year goes to Willie Mullins for his handling of Mikael D'Haguenet. In the deep end for a group one then back down to 2m for another when it should have been (imho) a nice easy 2m 4f 20l romp, followed by a group 2 followed by a 3m group 2/group 1 then the RSA full of confidence ala the Cooldine approach. Now the nag doesnt know what the hell has happened. |
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The main reason i chose Long Run,is cos i have seen him run at Cheltenham twice and not been impressed at all with his jumping,and imo if he jumps like that in the Gold Cup,he will not win the race.
Think the thread starter wanted opinions on who we think will not win,and thats mine.Not sure the point of this thread is to argue with each other,if im wrong,i apologise. |
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Very hard to say one horse "can't win", but if I was to pick a horse who I thought represented the poorest value. I would say Long Run. One clear round of jumping has not convinced me he has ironed out all his problems, although I'm sure they'll keep working with him in that department. If we take Kauto Star out of the King George it's hard to evaluate what he achieved. He beat Riverside Theatre who prior to the race had stamina doubts and Nacarat who fell in a hole after leading for a long way. Just my opinion but I feel that 6 or 7/1 is poor value when the proven sorts Imperial Commander, Denman and Kauto Star can be backed at 7/2, 9/1 and 10/1 respectively, and Pandorama who hacked up in the Lexus can be backed at 14s.
On the subject of Hurricane Fly... HE WILL FRIGHTEN CHELTENHAM TO DEATH  |
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I'd say Tranquil Sea. OK, he won the Paddy Power last year but then was when he was ahead of the handicapper. His festival form is poor with an 8th in the Supreme Novices, a 6th in the Jewson and a 9th of thr 11 finishes in the Ryanair last year.
Has been campaigned over a number of trips since, and I would fancy J'y Vole to turn the form around of their last run. For me, 6/1 and 7/1 2nd favourite for the Ryanair is no sort of price; and likely to be shorter when Master Minded and Long Run are withdrawn. |
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Is Starluck prominent enough to suggest?
No point turning up with this opposition on this course. Imagine if he did win though? Would be one of those forehead slapping festival wins that you knew you should have covered off.. |
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Hurricane fly no track/festival experience not for me.
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If its soft ground then Tataniano can't win the QM and Masterminded will
If its good ground then Masterminded can't win the QM and Tataniano will |
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Big Bucks, would just like to say, only 5 bumper winners have run in the Supreme with 1 winner and a placing. Not exactly the 'terrible' record you suggest.
From a value perspective at the current prices the worst has to be Finian's Rainbow. Hell's Bay is not and has never been a two miler. I think he'll struggle for speed over a truly run two miles. Reminds me of Rite of Passage, beating two weak fields and being sent off horribly short. |
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Excellent responses all. I'm with wellchief regarding Tranquil Sea for the same reasons. I also think he is soft and will never have things pan out the way he needs to win at the Festival in such a competitive race. Seems crazy to me that Albertas Run is a much bigger price given his Cheltenham record, and there are a hatful of others that seem more likely winners but are also trading at big prices.
Also like GI Mac's thinking. I'd never suggest Master Minded can't win on good ground but I do think he is very much one to take on under those conditions. |
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mad max and long run as not suited by cheltenham at distances they will run at imo (i.e. dont want to be shot down for mentioning long run's cheltenham form, but dont think will stay gold cup distance there...)
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imperial commander, kauto and denman
denman can not come back to his former dizzy heights end regain his title 3 years on. a great horse but at 11 his best years are behind him kauto is sadly coming to the end of his glittering career. the gold cup has never been his ideal race, its just his sheer natural ability thats gained him 2 successes. but his cruising speed and finishing kick are not what they were so will struggle to make an impact this year. imperial commander has had his time in the sun, but this horse is NOT GOOD ENOUGH to win back to back gold cups. and is the lay of the meeting |
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Who wins then Brandy?
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hopefully the new king of the jumps. long run.
i said at the time i didn't think his rsa run was as bad as people made out. and he looked and jumped so much better at kempton the other day. but he will need to be as good in the gold cup to win it. he will be chased home by the fresh diamond harry |
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You wont get rich off this one but OSCAR WHISKY has a lot to do before he turns the tables with Menorah. And then he might have to get past Binocular, Peddlars, H Fly etc etc
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buddelia
No offence mate re Long Run - I'm talking through my pocket as well. Just opening up a debate but you're right I don't want to get into arguments |
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Ooooo.. a 6yo, history making that would be. He was mighty impressive the other day, my hunch is it comes a year too soon for him.
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Hate to say it because I like the horse but.. Garde Champetre in the cross country. Currently 5-1 fav the horse has not won a race since 09 and is not getting any younger so I can't see this one winning.
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only thing i'd ask masterminded is what beats it?
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Also agree with the poster who said Finian's Rainbow
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none taken Roger,and you may be right,certainly jumped better at Kempton.
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Quevega - it was an amazing training achievement last year when she got home a lot less impressively than before with no prep run (this broke so many stats it was silly) - she hasn't been seen out since April and must be quite fragile - 5/4 is ridiculous - she SP'ed at 6/4 last year.... can't see it happening again.
Time for Rupert *runs for cover* Just don't like the idea of staying hurdlers running in the RSA - the profile though isn't that of a typical staying hurdler but that said it is a tough task. |
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Big Zeb aside, any Irish runner; they're set for a shocker!
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Poquelin - Ryanair
Can't have him at all at the prices. Beaten decsively in the race this year, should have been third. Much classier horses in this year's race, the likes of Somersby, Punchestowns and Sizing Europe could be potentially lining up and can't see him reversing form with Albertas Run if he turns up ready to go. |
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At the prices as they stand i reckon Zaidpour could be a lay.I'd be surprised if he ran in the supreme if there wern't at least 1 or 2 too good for him and im not convinced he wants a trip so if the neptune was the choice then for the same reason i'd go against.Obviously as im sure you all know,with the weather having played havoc with the fixtures,we still may well have plenty of "dark uns" to upset the applecart which for me barring the championship races makes any antepost tickles a no no for now.
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Hurricane Fly.. needs Cheltenham experience to have any chance..
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dwm we'll be sure to be back in this thread when the festival is over to see if we have had a shocker.
I'd be stunned is we don't win the mares and cross country on the first day while we have a shout in the three grade ones. |