Prick-wise Champion Chase selection?

Cap'n C B

Oh good, so he can't decide between Master Minded and Big Zeb either! Sticks up another speculative each way punt which is 'over priced' rather than tell us who he thinks will actually win the race!

I thought he'd put up Woolcombe Folly each way, its times are good and it should be in the 3

I'm convinced he'll have backed Woolcombe Folly, but it doesn't look as flash in the papers tipping up one at single figure odds! The annoying thing is whenever he puts up something ante post the bookmakers immediately crash the price, and he looks justified in doing so come the day because it's shorter than when he advised! For what it's worth I think Woolcombe Folly is an each way shot to nothing, but I still believe if Master Minded runs to his rating on the day he'll take all the beating.

Captain Cee Bee?? Was the bet for it to get round??

I agree with dwm767 - selecting Captain Cee Bee is a total cop-out job. If the horse does go on and win, it will be a total fluke result, as happened with Newmill. You can never discount horses falling, but you should not hope for another horse to suffer misfortune so that you can win a bet.
Captain Cee Bee is so far behind Big Zeb and Master Minded on form that selecting it makes no sense at all.

Wayward Lad wrote: "Captain Cee Bee is so far behind Big Zeb and Master Minded on form that selecting it makes no sense at all."

This is based on very little, is just your opinion (which you're entitled to), so to shout it out as fact is nonsense.
You cannot base how he rates with Master Minded given he has never taken him on.
He has raced against Big Zeb once, when he was short of work, on ground he hated, and he was never travelling with any zest.

An Irish 1-2

I'm convinced we'll see a different horse come Cheltenham

could the irish take all the big races? (big bucks aside...) i dont fancy them personally but couldnt rule out realt dubh, hurrican fly, big zeb and pandorama, would be a decent little acca

I think the Sporting Bet special of 8/11 for Master Minded and Big Zeb coupled is decent value.

Master Minded and Big Zeb (coupled) v The Field : 2011 Spbet Champion Chase
8/11 YES
11/10 NO

When Master Minded wins at Ascot and Big Zeb wins in Ireland in a few weeks I can see them both shortening, and I can't see past either of them so I think 8/11 is not too bad.

abit off topic but do they have the same for the champion hurdle wellchief? what price the field and what is the field against?

damn gutted he tipped it tbh. Really fancy Cee Bee myself.

They don't sorry Paul.  I think it's only for the Champ Chase because it is their first season sponsoring it, so it must be a special just for that race

oh right thanks anyway, would be interested in a price taking on menorah, peddlers cross, hurrican fly and menorah. maybe another firm will have one nearer the time

I think the Irish will have a shocking festival personally! That special on the Champion Chase is a cracking bet to cover any other bet in the race! Might buy myself a tenner on that to back Mad Max!
Paul4, if you mean you want the first four in the betting against the field you'll be lucky to get bigger than 1/5 in my opinion!

nah i dont fancy the irish, just think it could happen. and no, i want the the field against those 4.... i also couldnt back mad max at cheltenham (although i would most other tracks)

A mistake at the 2nd last cost him in the Arkle last year, I thought until then he travelled ok! Couldn't honestly have him as a serious investment, but at the price I think he could be a good fun punt for small stakes!

decent enough horse, how strongly do u rate that arkle? sizing europe hard to judge now up in trip, somersby doesnt seem top class (at that trip anyway) captain cee bee seems below top class, woolcombe folly has come on loads but seems the only one? compared to big zeb and master minded i cant see them coming too close

decent enough horse, how strongly do u rate that arkle? sizing europe hard to judge now up in trip, somersby doesnt seem top class (at that trip anyway) captain cee bee seems below top class, woolcombe folly has come on loads but seems the only one?

Probably not the strongest to be fair, given that Sizing Europe was going backwards up the hill and Somersby needs further, but by taking that 8/11 Master Minded or Big Zeb against the field id in effect have those two covered, and a free bet on Mad Max, just incase!

I'm going to be doing that special as well, in a double with Big Bucks.

It's a bonus that Sporting Bet are also top price on Big Bucks and NRNB - what a double!!

Blinding! I'm going Tuesday and Wednesday this year, so if Cue Card don't pay for my two days im confident that double will!

Very surprised by the response to his tip here. Think it was the only one he could legitimately put up and think he's absolutely right. Jumping is the major concern for me, but at 16-1 he is well worth a few quid. Would probably have smashed Sizing Europe in a Grade One last year and has previous winning form (beating Binocular) at the Festival. He's always been very classy and although he is a hard horse to catch right, it makes it way easier to forgive the odd lacklustre run. He was patently not going to run near his best the other day but would be one with a good chance on quickish ground.

Incidentally, I think the mighty Master Minded would be vulnerable if it did come up good. To my eye he is a different horse with cut and is very beatable on quicker ground. Big Zeb is clearly very classy but I still can't trust him to put in a very clean round of fencing and Woolcombe Folly is untried against the best (one big failure in the Arkle withstanding). I actually think Tataniano is another at the prices who commands a little consideration. If he got into a rhythm out front and the ground - again - was not too testing, I think he could take some catching. Similar to Captain Cee Bee, I think his last run is more than forgivable, which makes me think there is a little value in his current price.

He explains his pick on RPTV, the point of his antepost tips are horses who's prices have scope to contract, and the front 2 in the market have very little scope for this, hence him not tipping them.
Similarly in the gold cup he says IC is the most likely winner in his opinion, but will probably be 4/1ish on the day.

People seem to write Captain Cee Bee off due to a couple of lacklustre runs which he has had legitimate excuses for.  To say he "seems below top class" is way off the mark imo.  On good ground, if he is fit and healthy and puts a good round in I think he has a massive chance.

Ya the horse has huge talent but with bleeding issue I think he coulb be one  who wont fulfill his potential

I think at 10 he is to old to win it

Could someone please tell me how Captain Cee Bee can possibly beat Master Minded, Big Zeb or Woolcombe Folly???

Captain Cee Bee has already beaten big zeb, there ya go done.

don't understand the excitement around any Pricewise selections over jumps. Tom Segal consistently shows himself to be a very poor judge of jumps form and I don't rate his tips at all. He is much better on the Flat but even last Flat season he wasn't nearly as good as previous ones.

Good rant johnnyrant! I agree, he just marketed well! At the end of the day no one wins any money for backing a horse at a bigger price than he'll go off on the day; and he's so cautious he covers himself on every angle! He's not a tipster, he's a market analyist.

disagree with the previous 2 people as i am sure i am not alone in having backed both synchronised and long run and also getting the double up as i sure as hell wouldnt have picked them. bets were£70 on synchronised  14/1 + £200 long run 6/1 and a £25 dbl at 14/1 + 6/1 and a few weeks later £100 dbl at 7/1 syn + 7/2 long run w/o kauto as i thought like most people that kauto was invincible at kempton - but turns out tom knows more than us.

What all has he put up then so far?

Pride Of Dulcote GC
Captain CB

Yes I agree frankie, most of the time i dont understand why he picks certtain horses, and then they go and win. How you can say he is a poor jumps judge after last years Cheltenham winners 40/1 16/1 16/1 10/1 and he picks in the hardest races.

Ballydoyle, he's already beaten Big Zeb and even beat Woolcombe Folly allowing for a burst blood vessel!

spot on tomdeane, i know its not the same disipline but  capt,cee-bee has beaten binocular  over hurdle it proves he is very classy given the right conditions and he is the value bet at 16s for me  he has bled before but thats a risk worth taking at the price

dont know why people are knocking  (tom seagle)him he comes up with the goods time after time and at massive odds, i havent  always got the time got to study races in depth especially big field h,caps spints ect,so he is a godsend to me, whatever the racing post is paying him its not enough imo,to knock him for coming up with big priced winners is crazy i acctualy got my money on captain cee bee about 2 weeks ago as when i looked at the race i had a good idea that pricewise would select him ,was a bit suprised that he went for pride of dulcote i felt sure he would go for( diamond harry  backed him,)or maybee pandorama ,i never backed p.o.d but if he drifts out to 20-25s i will just incase

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but when a horse has run on heavy going twice and won both times (the 2nd time by 13-lengths, and described as "not extended, very easily"), how come when the horse comes last of 4 on its 3rd race on heavy going, the excuse given is that the horse hated the going?
By the way, Captain Cee Bee has also beaten Binocular at Cheltenham when giving it 8lb - does that mean it should be fav for the Champion Hurdle?
The horse is 10yo and is nowhere near as good a chaser as it was a hurdler - it struggled to beat Let Yourself Go at Punchestown last April whose not won since in 5 tries and is rated OR147.
I rate Captain Cee Bee at 155, and it'll only win the Champion Chase if all the others don't finish.

wayward lad ,i have also backed big zeb as he imo is the likliest winner but as you know races are not always won by the highest rated horses what i am saying is i was all over big zeb for champion chase indeed i backed him last year  but when i read connections of captain cee bee were happy with his last of 4 behind big zeb, i started to read between the lines and wondered if capt cb was short of work  on that occasion and figured that he cuold possibly  get much closer to big zeb in the champion and at the price i thought  he was worth taking a chance on  suppose it could be said i am guessing but in this game a lot of it is about guessing what abilty a horse has or retains ,connections have said that the champion is the plan but he is in the ryanair in case we change our minds so he is not certain to go anyway

Wayward Lad, the ground will obviously hinder him more when trying to topple the 2 best 2-mile chasers in Ireland. On good going he would definitely be a lot closer. That, coupled with the fact he was well short of work and who knows what he could do against the same horses on better going.

"Struggled to beat Let Yourself Go". I thought he beat him comfortably. Captain Cee Bee is a horse who finds plenty when push comes to shove and if McCoy had sent him on earlier he would have won by more imo.

To say he is "nowhere near as good a chaser as a hurdler" is also debatable. This is based on his Suprem Novice performace I presume? Imo he was cantering all over Sizing Europe at Leopardstown last year before coming down at the last, and we all know what he did at Cheltenham. That way he travelled and quickened that day was right out of the top drawer. Out of interest, what rating do you have Sizing Europe on?

Slabster: I rate Sizing Europe over 2-mile at 161.
Nobody knows what would have happened at Leopardstown as he fell at the last, but he was not in control of the race, he was under pressure - hence he fell when asked for a big one.
Given the form of that race worked out well in the Arkle, CCB would surely have been in the 1st-3 of the Arkle (but for a burst blood vessel), but the form of his win at Punchestown suggests he won not have beaten Sizing Europe. CBB has run to 155 on 3 occassions in my book; when falling at Leopardstown, and when winning on 06Feb10 and 30Oct10. I rated his win at Punch at 151.
I expected Sizing Europe to develop into a 168+ 2-mile chaser this season, but only de Bromhead knows what he's doing and I think the man is ruining that horse trying to make him a 3-mile chaser.
I have Big Zeb on 170, with Master Minded at 174(?) but his rating depends on his mental state on the day.
As for CBB being short of work, after his 30Oct10 win, his trainer said he expected to run him again 4 or 5 weeks later, then have another run at the Xmas/New Year, before going to Cheltenham. We know his missed his 30Nov-01Dec run, but that does not mean he missed any work prior to his latest run.
I've alway thought the quickest way to get a sports injury is to play while unfit - if that works for humans then it will probably mean the same for horses.

steamship: 'He only picks in the hardest races'

That very much depends on your point of view! For me, Championship races are the hardest to judge because you're dealing usually with very limited form, as the leading contenders often have only a handful of runs a season between them, every horse has been tuned to the second, and usually on their day they're all capable of beating each other! Tom Segal is very good in handicap races, where if anyone takes the time to go through the form with a fine tooth comb, a winner is often not that hard to find!

frankie57 - Fair enough he did put those two horses up at prices, but if you read his column from this Saturday his comment on Long Run was, and I quote, "capable of giving the great one a race"...now that's not a tip, he's covered his angles! He's not saying..."look Long Run is the one to be on here, that's my selection in this race, that's where my money's going"...I think everyone knew Long Run was capable of sticking in a performance on Saturday, the question was would it be good enough to beat Kauto Star...Tom Segal did not answer that question, yet on Sunday morning on the front page of the RP, Pricewise Does It Again! Does what? Gives a chance to the second favourite in the race? Big deal, so did I!

I suppose my gripe is for the admiration he recieves I want selections of strong conviction, because at the end of the day we can all give a horse a chance in a race, and on it's day it'll win, so how does that make him any different to you, me, or anyone else on here! Again, with Captain Cee Bee and Pride Of Dulcote, he's not saying 'I strongly fancy them to win the race!', he's saying at the prices they're worth an investment because they've got a chance! Every horse that lines up at the start of any race has some sort of chance, he's telling us nothing!

The problem is as his reputation's grown he's become keener to protect it, and so his tips are now more focused around getting value in a race than winners; if you were to back Captain Cee Bee to win the Champion Chase and he finished 4th, and I was to back Master Minded and he finished 5th, you've done no better than I have, we've both collect Sweet FA!

Wayward, I strongly disagree that he was under pressure against Sizing Europe. Captain Cee Bee is a horse who finds plenty off the bridle (Supreme Novices) yet he was hardly off it approaching the last. Sizing Europe is a horse known for his ability to cruise around on the bridle at pace, yet Captain Cee Bee was making him look slow! He took off grand at the last, hit his back end and the rest is history. This game is all about perceptions and I thought he would have went on to win by a good 4 or 5 lengths.

On the topic of his fitness prior to his last run, Eddie Harty said in an interview on RTÉ 1 pre-race that he had missed work due to the snow and would some on a lot for the run.

I agree regarding Sizing Europe, his season is halfway over and we're still none the wiser as to what his optimum trip may be, which is a shame.

I firmly believe Big Zeb is the one to beat mind [;)]

frankie 57 ,if you are winning money like that then stick with it if you say you would never have backed those 2 winners   otherwise then he has done you a massive favour, if he picked a winner once every pancake day then i would say o.k it must be all down to luck but he picks a lot  of big priced winners so he must be doing something right , must say i dont follow him blind i havent backed pride of dulcot as i fancy diamond harry more and have had a decent amount ( for me any way )on him ,but i have backed some fantastic priced winners  of tom seagles when i havent had time to make an assesment myself. evens and odds at 33s in a big sprint comes to mind  i would never have backed this it was only down to reading his column and thinking hes right this has got a decent chance at the price  we need all the help we can get this game is hard enough as it is well done with your bets and good luck

Anyway Slabster, I've given you my ratings with CCB on 155 and Big Zeb (the likely winner as MM may run like he did last March), on 170.
That's a 15lb difference, a lot to make up.
What are your ratings and how did you establish them?
CCB does not just have to beat Big Zeb and MM, there are probably another half a dozen horses with better form than CCB in the book that he'll have to beat as well, not including Sizing Europe who will probably contest the World Hurdle knowing de Bromhead.

You don't have to answer that Slabster, if you don't want to.
I've just noticed that you said your QMCC selection is Big Zeb, same as me.
With a rating of 155, CCB would have come 6th in last years QMCC.

To be honest I don't have any ratings Wayward, but I appreciate their value and the work you put into ratings can pay off in the long run if you are good at evaluating form. On what Captain Cee Bee has achieved over fences, he probably doesn't deserve to be rated any higher than 155, but I just feel there's enormous potential there, and if there is to be an upset, he'll be the horse to cause it. He has 9 lengths to make up on Big Zeb. That day, he was held up off a muddling pace which was always going to be a disadvantage. Taking into consideration a stronger pace, better ground, and being tuned to the minute and he weill be a lot closer come March imo.

However, Big Zeb is a far more reliable sort who travels, jumps, quickens, and stays. He hasn't ran a bad race since the Tingle Creek 2009.

great thread

You've answered your own question there Slabster. Big Zeb never runs a bad race, consistency is his middle name. He won't beat an "on-song" Master Minded, but that horse did not turn up last March. But he will beat anything else in the QMCC. Watch last years race again (I did earlier) - Geraghty looked like he was out hunting with the hounds coming round the bend on the run up to the last fence, double-handful or what!
The horse was immense, and the record books are full of repeat winners of the QMCC, so he has history on his side too. Billy go 7/2 and if MM was not in the race, then Big Zeb would be 4/5.

Fascinating thread as it develops.

Wayward Lad - I agree completely with Slabster regarding last year's fall behind Sizing Europe. However you interpret that race, to my eye Captain Cee Bee was cantering all over Sizing Europe and that is what I base my speculative punt on him in the QM around. That suggested to me he has the ability to progress way past his current rating, and although 10-year-old's don't win many Queen Mother's, he is very lightly raced. Granted, he obviously comes with a bit of a health warning as he's not the easiest to train but we are talking about a horse that was 16-1 when first making these points.

As for the Binocular point - I am not saying hurdles form translates directly to chase form. But Festival form translates fantastically well - nobody can deny that you have to possess a stack of class to win any championship race at Cheltenham.

As for the Big Zeb fans, nobody could argue with you regarding the way he won last year and he has been doing everything right recently. I still find it hard to shake the memories of his poor jumping and disappointments in big races away from Ireland. He has, in my opinion of course, only won that one top-notch race, which just might not be that great anyway (Forpadydeplasterer has not done much for the form since and Master Minded was clearly way below his best). I like the horse a lot, but he is 4-1 and shorter and not a 16-1 or 20-1 (Tataniano) shot with scope to improve.

CCB's run at Leopardstown can be ignored, he is a good ground horse. He also burst a blood vessel in the Arkle, was about to beat Sizing Europe at Leop before falling, other than that 4 wins over fences.

He has a shout, he's the only one who I believe could trouble Zeb and MM.

With regards to the Big Zeb vs Master Minded debate, for this year's form, it is very difficult to seperate them.

Big Zeb continues to beat the same horses in Ireland over the past 18 months (Golden Silver, Mansony, Watson Lake, Made in Taipan etc), and Master Minded has, on the whole, continued to beat the same horses in England (Mahogany Blaze, Petit Robin etc).

This is the first year that in my opinion both are at the top of their game (apart from MM's first QM win).  Big Zeb has cut out his jumping flaws and Master Minded  has had an injury free season.  Therefore, I beleive it's hard to choose between them as they haven't been sufficiently tested so far, and probably won't be until March.  It's a shame they won't run against each before the festival.

I think they should be closer together in the market than they are.  I don't see why Big Zeb would be 7/2 and Master Minded 6/4 and 7/4.  I'd have Master Minded shorter than Big Zeb, but only just.  As I've said previously in this thread, I think 8/11 coupled vs the field is outstanding value.

In terms of the opposition, I can't see too much to worry the big two.

Woolcombe Folly - beat a 135 chaser by 6 lengths off 154 in his last race.  Surely Master Minded or Big Zeb could have easily have done that as they are both rated in the 170's, plus his flop in the Arkle last year for me is a worry

Sizing Europe - still nobody knows what his best trip is and this must be a concern.  Henry de Bromhead must believe that he hasn't got the speed for the QM otherwise he would be geared towards this all season, so that must be a worry

Captain Cee Bee - I think everyone can agree that barring his fall he would have easily beaten SE last year.  But the point is he didn't.  He then burst a blood vessel again.  He obviously has class as he had Binocular, Khyber Kim, Kalahari King, Tranquil Sea and Muirhead behind him in his Supreme Novices win.  However, I don't think he's shown that level of form over fences; I'm not sure how much improvement is in him at 10.

Tataniano - for me is too ground dependent.  Also, last year Nicholls didn't put him in the Arkle and put him in the Grand Annual instead (only to be withdrawn because of the ground).  For me, if he was that good he would have ran him in the Arkle, especially as the first few days of last years festival was on good ground.

The rest I think are much of a muchness, and can't see any of them posing a threat to the big two.  I know it's not very original (and I like backing a long shot), but the front two are miles ahead imo.

Wayward, I wasn't so much asking a question as stating my agreement with you regarding Big Zeb [;)]

Tomdeane, Big Zeb's "poor" record away from Ireland is pretty non-existent to me. He picked up an injury when running in the Tingle Creek and on his only other race in England he fell when still going well in the QM. Falling was not something he saved for trips across the water those days either. I wouldn't worry about his form away from Ireland [:)]

He did ok on his last trip to England.