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Cheltenham Festival
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anybody got any opinions on this 1 , i just watched garde champetre and l'ami races from the weekend , if i had to pick id go for garde, looked like that race would put him spot on for chelt , he made 1 hell of a mistake last year just when he was getting in to the race , im prety sure lacdoudal is out injured even though a few still have him priced up at 8/1
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5/1 best price. As a 12 yo and and going off a sky high mark id tend to look elsewhere or wait til the day prob go off 3/1-7/2
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kings johns castle is the one to be on come march
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sizing australia good thing
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think garde and lami may had had there time. Kings John Castle is a fir shout but I wonder if one of the british trainers might pull somethin out of the bag nearer the time.
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have a look at king johns castle last run when beaten by his long odds on stable mate,could have won if he was allowed,this is the horse connections will be priming for the cc chase
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evra I remember thinking that 2 years back about lami when garde beat him pre xmas but the form was franked at the festival.
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KJC beat Tyrone Golden Rain in a P2P in Ireland today Evra.
Will be interesting to see if the French send anything over with it not being in the CC I doubt it but well worth looking out for. |
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12 year olds have a good record. Maybe garde champetre is good value at 5's.
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Maljimar
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Yeah since writing I've looked through the race and given the style of race (plot with a sprint) im still stuggling to get Garde out of the top 3. As for the 12 yo thing it seems risky but then in the not to distant past in the same colours, one word:
Spotthedifference! He was a cash machine round cheltenham. |
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I had a big eway bet on Garde last year at 4/1 antepost thought it was a point and aim job.
**** 5th!! But im drawn to him again this year 5/1 and 1/4 odds 1st 4 is really tempting |
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I see Lacdoudal is in the market for this race.....I'm 99% sure it's injured and wont run again this season.....be warned....just thought I'd flag it up. I think another postera week or so back flagged this up as High Street firms will still giving a price for it after the news broke
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Yup, dunno why he has nt been taken out of all markets
Lacdoudal definitely injured and ruled out for the season |
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one word bjg,BINOCULAR
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Ive entered this year given a quote of 9-2 from laddies. Shocking race imo but good to watch
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There is 0 chance he will run this season, may never race again imo
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LACDOUDAL, who delighted his many fans when posting a first winin more than four years at Cheltenham this month, could have run his last race after sustaining a tendon injury in that defeat of cross-country specialist Garde Champetre.
The 11-year-old, who had been without a victory since landing Sandown's end-of-season Betfred Gold Cup in 2006, has been a stalwart of Philip Hobbs's stable for seven years and showed his enduring talent and versatility when battling to a popular success at Cheltenham. However, Roger Skan's grey, ridden on his two biggest days by Richard Johnson, has now been denied the chance to compete in the season's remaining two races over the idiosyncratic track. "The news is not good, as the horse has done a tendon and will certainly be off for a year," said Hobbs. "It's disappointing that we can't carry on running him in Cheltenham's cross-country races, but at least we had a great day with himlast week. We haven't decided yet if he will be retired, but he's going to be at least 12 if he does come back. "He has been a phenomenal horse for us. He came to us as a four-year-old and has given us some great days, including winning the Betfred at Sandown and other decent races as well. If he is retired, he definitely has a good future ahead of him, as he's a brilliant hunter." Lacdoudal has won ten of his 49 races, accumulating over £350,000 in prize-money. |
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Garde Champetre (9/2) , LAmi (13/2) , Sizing Australia (8) , A New Story (14) , Arabella Boy (14) , King Johns Castle (14) , Maljimar (14) , One Cool Cookie (14) , Gullible Gordon (16) , Poker de Sivola (16) , Quezac de La Roque (16) , Another Jewel (20) , Northern Alliance (20) , Always Waining (25) , Fair Along (25) , Freneys Well (25) , Lord Nellerie (25) , Putney Bridge (25) , Quolibet (25) , Ballyvesey (33) - Others 33 or more
AS GOOD A 9/2 shot as your going to get in Cheltenham imho |
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I agree, maximum bet Garde Champetre.
Fair Along will be pulled out, biggest danger I think could come from Sizing Australia but Garde seems to always have the measure of that horse, Maljimar may be a test and Arabella Boy is of interest though with no XC experience you're taking plenty on trust. 9/2 and I'll go each way just incase |
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Quite confident about One Cool Cookie winning here and then going close at Aintree.
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You need XC experience to win this, didn't One Cool Cookie fall in the race won by Garde a couple of weeks back ?
I think he'd need more practice in this specialist code before troubling the best |
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He unseated which was for the benefit of the handicapper. C F Swan publically criticised the handicapper 12 months ago for giving One Cool Cookie a Grand National handicap mark of 161. He has been campaigned in order to get a handicap rating of 139. I'm not going to go into it any more as I created a thread on this horse on the antepost forum, but will add that the LTO unseatting was the only jumping blip in his jumps career and that for me is all part of the plot. Also jumped perfectly over the National obstacles last year so no reason why he can't handle this. Very confident of a big price winner.
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Lord Nellerie would have a chance for me if lining up.
Loves banks courses, wants good ground, jumps fantastically and has yet to run in a handicap in a X-country. Now gets a 15lb pull with Garde Champetre for a 3 1/2 length defeat last time out when the winner was made to work for the victory. Got to be value at 25/1 NRNB with 365. |
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to be fair viper thats a good shout, i actually thought lord nellerie had G C beat at quite a few stages over the last half mile , but finally got there after the last , maybe a e/w bet at 25/1
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when will all you people learn that this race is an ENDA BOLGER benefit??
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Am really sweet on Maljimar here, only ran over this course and was less than 3 lengths behind Garde Champetre and Sizing, that despite walking through the last when making ground. I thought the horse was running a huge race in last years national and was travelling best of all when he tipped up at the Chair 2nd time around.
Am on at 14s and will continue to top up until the day. |
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latest news from bolgers
nina rides garde c, john thomas on lami. arabella boy will not run in this race in 2011, 2012 will be his year, instead he runs in the n hunt chase with nina riding, quietly fancied. king johns castle will not be travelling and might be retired for good. |
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Posted this last week if anyone hasn't seen it...
The banks races have often been seen as an Enda Bolger benefit race, but over recent seasons the tide has been turning against him and his brigade. One reason that could be put forward for this is now horses from other trainers have gained more experience round the course and hence are much more suited to the unique test it provides. Below are the RPRs for the more frequent competitors in these kind of races. The RPRs WITHOUT brackets are those achieved at Cheltenham, whereas, those WITH are for the Punchestown's banks course. The most recent rating is on the right. Garde Champetre - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152 Lacdoudal - 136, 140 Sizing Australia - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143 A New Story - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141 L'Ami - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138) Silver Birch - 137, (131), 150, (132), 114, (126), 87 Drombeag - (111), 135, 129, (131), PU, 132, (122) Dix Villez - (120), 136, 112, UR Native Jack - (127), 134, (71), 130, (115), 77, 134 Freyneys Well - (113), 121, 128, (123), (126), 137, (98), 137, (137), (128), 125 Heads Onthe Ground - (119), 122, (106), (141), 145, (137), (145), (127), 100, (67)............ Wonderkid - (103), 116, (99), (PU), 134, 107, (134), (124), PU, 93 Royal Auclair - 129, 124, 133, 144, 119 Interestingly also the great Spot Thedifference unseated first time out over a banks course after 'virtually refusing'. He of course went on to master the cross country course at Cheltenham and perhaps managed to continue defying the handicapper (like Garde Champetre) because of how much improvement each horse can make after an additional run over the unique course. The fact that even course specialists such as Spot Thedifference and Garde Champetre both failed to complete the course first time out for Enda Bolger means I couldn't back one of his first time out in such an event (Arabella Boy). As can be seen from most of these horses there is usually a pretty uphill trend as they gain more experience. So what does that mean for this year's renewal? Below are the main contenders and their respective RPRs. Garde Champetre (9/2f) - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152 L'Ami (13/2) - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138) Sizing Australia (8/1) - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143 A New Story (14/1) - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141 Maljimar (14/1) - 144 King Johns Castle (14/1) - (126) One Cool Cookie (16/1) -(UR) Another Jewel (20/1) - (135), 135, (132) Arabella Boy, Poker De Sivola, Gullible Gordon, Northern Alliance, Fair Along and Dream Alliance - All never run. As I have said experience is key so I would more or less rule out any of the last group. This is backed up by the fact that the last 21 winners of Cheltenham X-C races have all run over a banks course before. For me looking at the above results the stand out bet is Maljimar at 14/1. He managed to run an RPR of 144 on his first run at the course, which is absolutely massive given the above statistics. It is very likely (though I haven't checked every race) that Maljimar's run was the best ever debut by a horse over a banks course on strict ratings. He jumped very well in the main the day bar a few errors, one of which was at the last which cost him valuable momentum. For that race he is 8lbs better off with Garde Champetre for a 3l defeat, and a massive 13lbs better off with Sizing Australia for a 2.25l defeat. Yet both are much shorter in the betting even though on that day they both already had experience over the course. Since then much hasn't gone right for him but as a consequence he has dropped 8lbs in the weights to a very generous 134. In truth he's only had 3 runs, twice over the Grand National fences (fell both times, though departed at 22nd in GN going very well), and then one run on New Year's Day over the regular obstacles. However, it must be noted at the time Nick William's horses had been badly held up by the weather so this run can be forgiven. He is 11 now but he is not past it for this kind of race with the winners of it before being aged 12, 12, 10, 9, 10 and 12. Also he's a lightly raced 11 year old with 24 runs to his name, compared to 12yo Garde Champetre who has had 39 starts. At 14/1 I think he has to make massive E/W (4 places) value especially with the Bolger pair of L'ami and Garde Champetre not looking great this season. As an alternative I would pick Another Jewel, but I really do think Maljimar is a massive price at 14/1 and must be taken if possible. http://cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com/ |
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One word. One horse. MALJIMAR
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correct. daryl jacob nominated him as his best chance. couldnt be too bad. at the time he thought he had diamond harry. he has zarkander and for non stop. im on anyhow, although thats probably a negative against him now
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Another Jewel being massively over looked here.
Very promising effort last year on his first try over the course when 4th in this race. After that he placed in Punchestowns when 3rd to Lami receiving just 5lb, and 12 lengths ahead of Sizing Australia conceding 5lb. After that he went to France and won a listed X Country contest worth £44k. He came back with a gentle introduction at Gowran Park last month, I presume in preparation for this race and now comes here off exactly the same mark as last year. He has a 16lb pull with (2f) L'ami to find 5 lengths, and has a further 10lb pull with (3f) Sizing Australia to extend the 12 lengths he already has in hand on him. Another Jewell also finished in front of Garde Champetre in last years renewal and although he is 4lbs closer at the weights with the favourite this time around it seems clear that one is on the upgrade and one is (sadly) on the downgrade. Well worth a second look imo but GL with your bets anyway. |
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Was about to post the exact same thing, Benjy. Agree entirely, 20's looks very generous.
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X-Country Chase
A race farmed by the Irish and they have the first five in the market. It’s the usual suspects – Garde Champetre, L’Ami, Sizing Australia etc., but there could be a new kid on the block this year in the shape of Arabella Boy. Barely out of the Novice stage he has raced only 6 times over fences and never over this unique type of course – but the manner of his last victory, under a typical waiting Paul Carberry ride, gives every hope that not only will he cope with the obstacles, but that he’ll have the necessary stamina too. Just a 6yo and trained by the master for this event – Enda Bolger - he recorded his first win in his most recent run when different tactics were employed – normally a front running blaster he was held up at the rear and settled beautifully – jumped his way into contention down the far side to lead at the last and hold on from the very useful Ballymak.This was his first victory over the larger obstacles having ran placed to many good Irish novices. The biggest doubt would be his stamina over this trip just short of 4 miles, but if the great Paul Carberry is on his back again there would be no one better at switching an animal off and conserving stamina. He’s currently available at 14/1 with Corals/Hills (8/1 with Stan James) and is a sporting EW selection. Recommended Bet: Arabella Boy – 1 pt EW (6/1 to 14/1 envelope) |
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Arabella is not lining up for this.
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as i said ekbalco he aint running in the race and another irish possible gone today is kilty storm runner up in foxhunters in 2010, will not be seen at the festival in 2011 trying to go one better.
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Arabella Boy is a) Too Young anf b) has no experience of x crountry races which is the manditory trend for this race.
Another Jewel 3 runs in cross country races with form of 143 and is available at 20/1. |
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Oh I see Benjy has already made the case for Another Jewel.
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Good to have a couple of you agreeing though. [;)]
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Just had a good look through this race off 10'5 with hadden frost jocked up imo Oscar Bay has a massive chance if retaining his novice abilty and handling the course. massive price imo.
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