Cheltenham Festival
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I love the horse, and I don't want to comment on form, but tactically I can't see how in anyway he can win the race.
At his devastating best he'd sit right up with the pace, turn the screw down the back straight of the 2nd circuit and break the heart of everything in behind. Now though, quite rightly given his age, it appears from last years Gold Cup and the Hennessey that he must be ridden with a touch more reserve, which results in him setting up the race for other horses who appreciate a moderate pace increase at that time in the race.
I think if he is sent out to make all on the 2nd circuit he'll tire, and I don't think he's got the pace to quicken away from what will be a bunch of decent horses in behind if his charge is held. Any thoughts?
At his devastating best he'd sit right up with the pace, turn the screw down the back straight of the 2nd circuit and break the heart of everything in behind. Now though, quite rightly given his age, it appears from last years Gold Cup and the Hennessey that he must be ridden with a touch more reserve, which results in him setting up the race for other horses who appreciate a moderate pace increase at that time in the race.
I think if he is sent out to make all on the 2nd circuit he'll tire, and I don't think he's got the pace to quicken away from what will be a bunch of decent horses in behind if his charge is held. Any thoughts?
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if he runs the same rating as he did in the Hennessy he will be very very hard to beat.
Giving 24lbs to Diamond Harry and Burton Port was a load of weight and Denman's form at the weights in the Hennessy was equivalent of beating then by 16 lengths at level weights - magnificent effort that would seem to indicate he retains much if not all of his old ability. Much will depend on whether (and how fast) he is deteriorating, and whether horses like Diamond Harry are improving fast enough. tactically I see no reason to worry. If Denman runs just the same as in the Hennessy he will have almost all the others well stuffed by half way down to the hill at Cheltenham, and only Imperial Commander has the form to indicate an ability to keep up. Past experience (they never come back etc) Denman's age - (just turned 11), his form overall (he hasn't won since his last Hennessy win) all contrive to put you off, and I suppose he will probably lose again. However strictly on the hennessy form of only about 9 weeks ago he is a really serious contender. |
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I agree in many ways, and I firmly believe that his Hennessey Gold Cup run is the best piece of Gold Cup form we've seen all season, which is why I posed the question because from a form perspective I think he deserves to be favourite...I just can't envisage how (Sam Thomas I presume) will get him home in front!
I just wonder whether his style of running requires so much stamina to be effective as a race winning tactic, and he just doesn't possess it anymore. I can see him running a place easily, but ive always thought Denman run's his races back to front, in that his best work will done in the opening two thirds, and any horse doing his best work in the final third will pick him up; assuming he doesn't leave them too far behind, which im not sure he can anymore. |
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I'd like to see a much more aggressive ride - i know hes a bit older with a dodgy ticker but Denman got where he was by destroying horses early on - since his illness he's never been ridden quite the same and i wonder if jockeys have been too easy on him. Nicholls said he summered really well and the hennessy form looks good - maybe its time to throw a bit of caution
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Well said Please.
AP rode him too conservatively in the Gold Cup simply because he fell at Newbury. This played into the hands of IC. With Sam on board I think he will revert to the tactics where he won, he has nothing to lose. This will put IC's stamina under pressure but I think it may well play into the hands of KS. |
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Look Kauto Star is the only horse EVER to regain the Gold Cup, so extremely unlikely it will happen and to top it all can't see him getting past Midnight Chase. Time will tell?
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If Denman runs to his Hennessey form he'l be very much at the sharp end for sure.Technically the 2010 Hennessey was his best performance in all his HGC races so difficult to say if he's declined at all.
Whether he's capable of the level of performance of pure brutality with which he destroyed KS in 2008 is unlikely though. He'd need to be at his very best and Sam T would need to turn the screw pretty early to get IP and KS off the bridle,though Denmman running up the hill in the lead would be a sight to behold. Great place bet Denman i'd say but i do hope KS and Denman both get home safely if nothing else. |
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he goes in to the race a fresh horse for a change,his Hennessey run was very good,and he has his winning jockey back.Three reasons why he can win the race,and imo if you have him and IC in your book,you have the winner.
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