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BJG
15 Jan 11 19:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 533 | Blogger: BJG's blog
2010

Stayers - Big Bucks
Champion Chase - Big Zeb
Gold Cup - Imperial Commander
Champion Hurdle - Binocular



2011

Stayers - Big Bucks cant lose bar a fall on all form

Champion Chase - Match between Big Zeb and MM for me - id have strong preference for Big Zeb
Woolcombe Folly granted looks much improved this year but still has an awful lot to prove in this class to be 8/1 imo

Gold Cup - Imperial Commander cant be out of the 3 surely
Kauto doesnt look the same horse this year, cant be havin Long Run at 6s around here - Denman/Diamond Harry??
Think of the 4, this fella at 4s he rates a crackin e/w bet to nothing

Champion Hurdle - Very surprised Bino won today, was nt expecting him to, very good winner last year, fast pace and good ground will suit him down to the ground again in March
Jumped so fast today again as well
Peddlars Cross, Menorah, Hurricane Fly the only other 3 that could win


Look good on paper imo but all 4 cant win again can they? ShockedShocked
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Report sageform January 15, 2011 7:59 PM GMT
If they all reproduce their runs from last year they will be very hard to beat. Only Big Zeb looks vulnerable at the moment.
Report MOUNT CLERIGO January 15, 2011 7:59 PM GMT
what price you want?  all four 100-1?
Report woodworm January 15, 2011 8:02 PM GMT
Bluesquare were offering 200-1 on the 4 at the start of the season!
I meant to take some but when I got on the website I couldnt find the offer and completely forgot.
Am heavily tied into a Binocular win so will be satisfied with just the one myself!
Report woodworm January 15, 2011 8:04 PM GMT
Anyway it never happens; something will turn up at a price in at least one of the four!
Report BJG January 15, 2011 8:05 PM GMT
Have a few e/w luckies with the 4 - highly unlikely that all 4 will win again of course but id be surprised if 2 at least didnt win and 3 if not all 4 place
Report MOUNT CLERIGO January 15, 2011 8:31 PM GMT
i only said ton to one as laddies are 200's.  done the maths and make it 0.5% so having a 100% bet. fair if u like it n think the prices on here for respective are a little big
Report Paul4 January 15, 2011 8:31 PM GMT
all four were 150/1 with PP last week, had a nice round pound on it :)
Report MOUNT CLERIGO January 15, 2011 8:44 PM GMT
wouldnt have been value last week at 150-1 as isnt now after the GC picture improved for IC and the CH market improved for Binocular.  go in again at 200-1 for another nicker and improve your average!
Report rogerthebutler January 15, 2011 9:07 PM GMT
Can see them all going off favourite
Report Paul4 January 15, 2011 9:39 PM GMT
its 200/1 after today?! cant see that as wud be around 150/1 just normal 4fold. i dont think they will all win tbh (have actualy backed none of them) but just wouldnt want all 4 to win and not get something out of it :)
Report Colonel Sanders January 15, 2011 11:09 PM GMT
had a small bit on at 200/1

Decent bet to look forward to. Unlikely to happen obviously but worth a few quid at the price
Report Paul4 January 15, 2011 11:14 PM GMT
mount clerigo, good call, found laddies still showing 200/1, great price imo so had few more quid. i'd say big zeb may be the only one who i wouldnt make favourite based on performances so far, but then even he won his only race so has done nothing wrong, just that master minded and woolcombe folly have improved
Report silvercoat January 16, 2011 10:27 AM GMT
I just had £5 with Laddies at 200/1. Now if Binocular, Big Zeb and Big Bucks all go in again it means that I'll have Imperial Commander running in the Gold Cup to win £1000. So on Gold Cup morning I'll be in a position to back a few other horses almost to nothing.

Well I can dream can't I? And it's only a fiver.
Report Paul4 January 16, 2011 11:44 AM GMT
the exact reason i've done it silvercoat :) and most of my ante post multiples have master minded in, so kinda covers them a little if binocular wins as bucks shud and wil go onto IC
Report woodworm January 16, 2011 12:00 PM GMT
Didnt realise the 200-1 would still be available!
200-1 with lads is a pretty good bet imo.
The odds they are offering (5/2, 7/2, 4/1, 4/7) make ~124/1 accumulator.
You might beat the odd price elsewhere but I doubt you will beat 200-1.
I also agree with above poster, if bino and Big zeb win you can start laying the other 2, or certainly IC come gc day if the other 3 have gone in!
Report wellchief January 16, 2011 1:49 PM GMT
I didn't realise the odds would be this big = I'm with you guys - its worth a fiver.  Just checked Odds Checker and its

Billys - 143/1
365 - 132/1
Spoil Sports - 113/1
Bloo Sq - 111/1
Sid James - 111/1

Will have a fiver with Billys
Report woodworm January 16, 2011 4:58 PM GMT
Wellchief.
Do you not have access to a Lads account? The 200-1 is still available now. Its in the specials section under how many of last seasons big 4 will win again. All 4 is 200-1. I have taken £20 for myself and the same for my dad!
Roll on March!
Report denman85 January 16, 2011 5:03 PM GMT
its 150-1 now:(
Report buddeliea January 17, 2011 5:41 PM GMT
yeh,just got 150.
Unlikely to happen,never does,but its possible and worth a fun bet.
Report Stake & Chips January 17, 2011 5:56 PM GMT
Are Laddies NRNB on the big 4?
Report downallstar January 17, 2011 6:28 PM GMT
If you select all four manually the odds on Lads is 123.75.
My guess is that would be nrnb, but the special isn't.
Report Stake & Chips January 17, 2011 6:34 PM GMT
Ta Silly
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 6:46 PM GMT
the more this thread is updated the more i fancy it :( just had another couple of quid
Report Colonel Sanders January 17, 2011 10:18 PM GMT
they must be starring down the barrel on this one. Woodworm had 8k/40

4 people I know (including me) had a tenner a head on which is to win another 8k

Add in the others on here who backed it (and a few other mates of mine went looking for it when I told them, even my missus wanted a fiver on LaughLaugh) and all the singles and doubles etc aside from this bet and I'd like to know their liability Shocked if all 4 go in

As others have said, a fun bet and happy spending a tenner on it
Report woodworm January 17, 2011 10:23 PM GMT
But like several people have stated, 'it never happens!'
When was the last time all 4 champs retained their titles?
Has it ever happened?
I am very happy with my bet but I don't suppose they will lose too much sleep; they were just a little slow reacting to 2 markets swinging in our favour (ie Bino +ve and Kauto -ve)
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 10:26 PM GMT
it could be argued that the longer it has been since it happened the more likely it is to happen ;) how many horses go unbeaten then lose? all good things come to an end (and all bad thing come to an end) in all fairness il be shocked (and rich, for me) if it does happen :) good luck all!
Report woodworm January 17, 2011 10:38 PM GMT
Just had a saver on 3 winners at 10s incase one of the selections lets me down!
Report Paul4 January 17, 2011 10:43 PM GMT
where is that woodworm?
Report woodworm January 17, 2011 11:37 PM GMT
Thats the lads price for exactly 3 winners.
Not as good value as the 4 but a bit of insurance!
Report Paul4 January 18, 2011 12:09 AM GMT
oh right, didnt see that. would it not be better value (trying to work out in my head) perming the trebles? at £2 stakes, the treble on binocular at 3/1, big bucks at 4/6, big zeb at 7/2 (as imperial commander would be the longest odds at 4/1) would return around £60, which would be £52 profit from the total £8 stake, whereas if big bucks was the one to lose it would return a hell of alot more, and similarly if all four did win u'd get alot more back.... am i wrong? im half confused :(
Report woodworm January 18, 2011 6:33 PM GMT
Depends what you're after Paul. For me I wanted some insurance incase just one of the four gets beat. I stuck a tenner on at 10s. The 4 permed trebles at £2.50 would win me more if all 4 won, or if BB was the only one to lose but the other trebles would win a lot less. As I dont need to win more on the all four option and I dont think BB is the one to get beat I am happy with the bet.

Most likely scenario if we are realsitic about this is only 1 or 2 will win anyway but I'm happy to have my £30 and let it run. Everything is crossed this end for the Champ Hurdle as Bino would win me more on his own than I stand to win from this bet anyhow!
Report Paul4 January 18, 2011 6:37 PM GMT
yeh i guess with ur potential return on the 4 ur better off with the 10/1 :) if first 2 win u should feel comfortable with big bucks?! oh right, big day tues for u then! i dont have any life changing wins but if nicholls has a good week i will :)
Report woodworm January 18, 2011 6:55 PM GMT
I dont bet big but I love combination multiples. I have been backing Binocular in multiples with Workforce (for the arc) and short priced favs all summer and have enough winning 4 and 5 timers at various prices (that now only rely on Bino) to win me a tidy sum. If Bino loses then the fourtimers have already paid for themselves. If bino wins then the 3s become 4s and 4s become 5s etc... Finians Rainbow is the only other horse I have tied up and should they both win I will be very happy!
Report Paul4 January 18, 2011 7:03 PM GMT
yeh good idea tbf. i have a load of very small festival accas but unlikely to win as finding one winner is hard enough! might start doing that, always have short price winners midweek but dont back them as no point with the stakes i do, might start doing them in doubles and trebles with festival fancies
Report woodworm January 18, 2011 7:12 PM GMT
I have a little bet I like to do. Its basically a Heinz 57 but without the doubles and trebles so becomes a 22 bet combi (1acca, 6xfive, 15xfour). Over the summer when theres loads of meets I like to find 6 horses I really really like. I generally bet horses between 1-2 and 5-2 in these multiples. At those odds the doubles and trebles are useless but a fourtimer gets your money back and 5 or 6 wins can win big.
This year I was doing so well I decided to find 4 horses and add Workforce and Bino as horses 5 and 6.
Annoyingly I never got 4 winners all summer; but got 2 and 3 winners several times. Workforce winning created the fourtimers that have paid for all the losing bets and Bino would create several more fourtimers and a few fivefolds.
I only do this bet to £1 or £2 but won 12 grand between May and October last year!
Report woodworm January 18, 2011 7:16 PM GMT
When Workforce won, I started adding Finians Rainbow and my 6th horse.
Annoyingly again I never hit 4 winners with this bet either!
Report Paul4 January 18, 2011 7:27 PM GMT
jesus! definitely worthwhile then! i've only done stupidly small multiples with pence so far, will do bit bigger ones when nearer the time. have a nice 1p lucky 63 on nicholls horses: woolcombe folly QMCC, sam winner triumph, silviniaco conti CH, toubab supreme, poquelin ryanair and ghizao arkle.... returns a nice 21k :D nothing wrong with dreaming!!
Report BJG January 22, 2011 7:52 PM GMT
The dream lives on Cool
Report Paul4 January 22, 2011 8:29 PM GMT
after the past couple of weeks, i'd say binocular, big zeb, imperial commander and big bucks look a hell of a lot more confident selections :)
Report woodworm January 23, 2011 5:27 PM GMT
Lads have shortened Big Zeb (since MM yesterday) and Imp Com (dont know when) so current odds are 5/2, 3/1, 4/7 and 7/2.
Thats 99-1 accumulator so the 200s looking better by the day!
Report Paul4 January 23, 2011 11:10 PM GMT
if tataniano runs, i think they'll save for aintree again. think the 200s looks very smart (even if i only got the 150s) :(
Report unclepuncle January 26, 2011 4:16 PM GMT
Fingers, legs and everything else crossed from me that it's a repeat of 2010 - though actually Big Bucks can lose if he likesBlush
Report strontium January 26, 2011 4:35 PM GMT
All four ought to start favourite (if they show up). I'm least convinced by IC of the four.
Report buddeliea January 27, 2011 7:58 AM GMT
well if you get the first 3,then you are in a great position for the Gold Cup.
Report CVByrne January 27, 2011 11:12 AM GMT
I think all four are vulnerable, big bucks will have a harder task than he did last year.

In fact all four have harder tasks than last year. I'd still be tempted by the multiple though as all deserve to be favourites.
Report buddeliea January 27, 2011 12:23 PM GMT
to me its one of those fun bets for chelt
small wager at 150,no hardship,and you just never know.
If Bino wins it should start to create some excitement i think.
Report sageform January 27, 2011 12:54 PM GMT
Every bit of new evidence reinforces the probability of repeat. I have only backed IC at the moment as I hate taking short prices when there is still about a 20% chance of any horse getting injured or sick before March.
Report Bhudda January 27, 2011 1:33 PM GMT
112.5 the fourfold on Ladbrokes and thats NRNB as well

In for £20 Laugh
Report bbsband January 28, 2011 9:59 AM GMT
same as ^ I like the nrnb too @ 100/1
Even the 3 timer could pay well if one dont
turn up or bucks got beat...
Report woodworm January 29, 2011 5:51 PM GMT
Still a good bet; but the world hurdle just got a whole lot more interesting!
Report Paul4 January 29, 2011 6:58 PM GMT
big bucks/mourad... grand crus 3rd
Report BJG February 3, 2011 8:53 PM GMT
Down to 125 wiv Lads ShockedDevil


World Hurdle - Big Bucks, Grand Crus

Champion - Binocular, Menorah, Hurricane Fly, Peddlars Cross

Gold Cup - Imperial Commander, Denman/Kauto??

Champion Chase - Big Zeb, Master Minded

After the last few weeks, i dont think much has changed bar Grand Crus emerging as a threat to BB, id stil fancy BB to be too good

Be very surprised if the 4 winners are nt mentioned above
Report spothediference February 4, 2011 10:31 PM GMT
any1 any idea which firm is biggest for these 4.thanks.
Report buddeliea February 5, 2011 6:11 AM GMT
i think lads are
Report sageform February 5, 2011 9:13 AM GMT
Gold Cup now between IC, DH, Joncol if he runs, Long Run and Denman imo.
Report TiptheOdds February 8, 2011 7:09 PM GMT
Joncol LOL.
Report silvercoat March 13, 2011 4:54 PM GMT
Ah well,  there's always next year I suppose.
Report Stake & Chips March 13, 2011 5:15 PM GMT
Laddies were NRNB on this I hope... Silly
Report buddeliea March 14, 2011 7:11 AM GMT
Am thinking we have lost this bet,but anyone know for sure??
Report silvercoat March 14, 2011 2:19 PM GMT
Yes the bet is a loser.

I just contacted Laddies and they confirmed it.
Report Ravage Again March 14, 2011 2:33 PM GMT
taxi for BJG Cry
Report properpunter March 14, 2011 11:36 PM GMT
Not confirmed as loser for me....?
Report mythical prince March 15, 2011 1:43 AM GMT
seems like an awful bet to me in any case. how often do all four do the business again? never. just doesn't happen.
Report buddeliea March 15, 2011 5:15 AM GMT
bit of fun mate,it was 150!!
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