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eric_morris
14 Jan 11 10:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 1,694 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
Gloria Victis, Therealbandit just two examples of why novices are out of their depth against the best experienced chasers around in a Gold Cup. You would think Time For Rupert's connections dont want to destroy his chasing career barely as it has started.

Denman has shown there is a lot of nonsense spoken about the RSA by comparison. Got his jumping spot on in his novice season culminating in an impressive RSA win. The next season he took that experience into the Hennessy and then the Gold Cup and has had a long lasting career. Wonder if they might have had another demoralised horse or even fatality if they had gone for Gold too early and missed out on the excellent career he has had.

There will be a few taking 20 quid at 100 for him the Gold Cup on here and demanding he runs in the Gold Cup in the Festival build up who wont give 2 sh1ts about the horses well-being or future that's for sure ... it happens every year there is a good novice.


Poster Celtic Son will probably be one of them if history repeats itself.
Pause Switch to Standard View Is Webber going to ruin Time For Rupert?
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Report Extreme Conviction January 14, 2011 11:01 AM GMT
Agreed, would be totally unnecessary, he's still only a 7yo. The only reason I could have seen would have been to avoid Big Bucks next season - but now Andy Stewart's said it's unlikely he'll be going chasing, there's just no point possibly ruining him against Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander. Go for it next season when they're 12, 12 and 11 respectively; and with no other obvious horses coming though, if Rupert progresses as expected, he'd have to be one of the favourites.
Report buddeliea January 14, 2011 12:18 PM GMT
Agree,RSA is his race,next year is the right time to tackle the big boys.
Report revedesivola January 14, 2011 12:38 PM GMT
worth bearing in mind that webber has showed no more desire to run tfr in the gold cup than mullins has with mikael dhag
Report Mayweather January 14, 2011 12:44 PM GMT
I agree, Time For Rupert should stay in novice company this season. Be sensible Mr Webber and go for the RSA Chase this season. I will be a very angry if decide to go for the Gold Cup this season. What ever you do, please keep him in the novice division this season. Muppet!
Report eric_morris January 14, 2011 12:45 PM GMT
Maybe so, but a victory in a weak Pillar will definitely lead to the chancers with 100 on him and certain members of the press crying for him to be redirected to the Gold Cup. Will connections follow the correct course and go RSA then or basking in the glory decide to risk his career before it has barely started?
Report Extreme Conviction January 14, 2011 12:49 PM GMT
Will Kennedy stated on his Twitter, that after he schooled him this morning, RSA is still firmly the aim. Can't see it going for the Gold Cup personally.
Report revedesivola January 14, 2011 12:49 PM GMT
i dont think taking novices out of novice company does any good. nb dunguib at punchestown last year and cue card in the bula
Report SatelliteFlight January 14, 2011 12:50 PM GMT
Where did he say he was being aimed at the Gold Cup?
Report Far From Trouble January 14, 2011 12:54 PM GMT
revedesivola     14 Jan 11 12:38 
worth bearing in mind that webber has showed no more desire to run tfr in the gold cup than mullins has with mikael dhag


Difference is TFR has a Gold Cup entry, MDH does not

would be a silly thing to consider imo
Report eric_morris January 14, 2011 12:56 PM GMT
He hasnt but it doesnt sound like it has been ruled out -

Time For Rupert is bang on course for the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on January 29 after coming through his latest exercise in fine form.

The RSA Chase favourite has also been entered for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and his trainer Paul Webber admits he will find out a lot more about last year's World Hurdle runner-up when he runs against more experienced horses.
Report eric_morris January 14, 2011 12:57 PM GMT
"He's on course for the Argento Chase at Cheltenham in which he'll meet more experienced chasers. That race should tell us a lot," said Webber.
Report eric_morris January 14, 2011 12:58 PM GMT
The race should tell him not to let it go to his head this year when he beats a sub-standard Pillar field.
Report revedesivola January 14, 2011 12:59 PM GMT
fft, id say if he pissed up in his last run hed have got one. its ultimately the owners decision so theres no harm in having him entered and from webbers point of view it would be unprofessional for him not to
Report magic carpet January 14, 2011 1:01 PM GMT
Though i agree that tfr should go for the rsa there will be a train of thought that would argue that he has equally as much experience as pride of dulcote over fences who pricewise gave out as his selection for the gold cup didn't hear too many in certain places suggesting that Nicholls could be potentially ruining pride of dulcote given his lack of experience over fences
Report Howdi January 14, 2011 1:04 PM GMT
I agree Celtic Son always advocates this and it is a poor show.
Report eric_morris January 14, 2011 1:06 PM GMT
That train of thought will come from those with 20 quid at 100 on him as I said above. Do you have  aprice on him for the Gold Cup magic carpet?
Report eric_morris January 14, 2011 1:07 PM GMT
That's because Celtic Son takes big prices for none intended targets hoping to start threads on here trying to guide connections in that direction ... misguided and annoying after several years of it.
Report Howdi January 14, 2011 1:08 PM GMT
He is also the most vile member of the Betfair forum.
Report magic carpet January 14, 2011 1:13 PM GMT
I have no financial interest in either race eric  for what its worth as i have said i personally think that rupert should go for the rsa as it is the easier option at this stage of his career the differnce between what i said and what some say is the fact that i dont have a financial intrest and can see a range of viewpoints without having to comment on connections decisions because i am financially involved
Report eric_morris January 14, 2011 1:16 PM GMT
Will take your word for that magic carpet.

History has shown what a bad move it is however it doesnt stop the hoohaa every time a half decent novice comes along learning his trade over fences.
Report zilzal1 January 14, 2011 2:46 PM GMT
i seem to remember Captain Christy winning the Gold Cup a year after being placed in the champion Hurdle, was probably a era where good hurdlers made the transition quicker though and its probably wisrer to wait a year.

What happened to Gloria Victis could have occurred in the RSA though, he'd earned his place with a top weight victory in the RP chase, the owner was a friend of a friend and got me a print of Kempton.
Report Celtic Son January 14, 2011 3:37 PM GMT
At least eye kan spell ewe moor rons.
Report Celtic Son January 14, 2011 3:39 PM GMT
I hope Time Four Roopert runs in the Gold Kup by the way. I'm on at big prices so that's all I kare about.
Report Mayweather January 14, 2011 3:47 PM GMT
Celtic Son - be quiet you muppet! Time For Rupert wants to run in the RSA this year (not the Gold Cup). We don't want muppets like you trying to tempt the trainer into a bad move.
Report revedesivola January 14, 2011 3:49 PM GMT
mayweather, im not sure that webber reads the forumLaugh
Report SatelliteFlight January 14, 2011 3:50 PM GMT
Laugh Webber will probably go for the Gold Cup now that Mayweather thinks its a bad idea LaughLaughLaugh
Report zilzal1 January 14, 2011 3:51 PM GMT
Dont expect that the trainer will use the betfair forum opinion as a factorLaugh
Report Mayweather January 14, 2011 3:55 PM GMT
Webbershould listen to me and go for the RSA Chase. It's the best thing for me and the horse. If Webber goes for the Gold Cup this year, he must be a complete and utter muppet!
Report downallstar January 14, 2011 4:32 PM GMT
Mayweather     Joined: 12 May 10
Replies: 316 14 Jan 11 15:47 
Celtic Son - be quiet you muppet! Time For Rupert wants to run in the RSA this year (not the Gold Cup)



You talk to horses now????
Did TFR tell you himself???
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Report Mayweather January 14, 2011 4:35 PM GMT
Downallstar - you are a muppet. At least I don't talk to my Gold Fish. Paul Nicholls talks to horses, look on the video with Kauto Star so don't think its odd you weasel! You are a complete muppet! lol you crack me up muppet boy.
Report downallstar January 14, 2011 4:37 PM GMT
Don't think Kauto Star has ever replied though!

Ask TFR why he doesn't want to run in the GC this year, ta.
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Report Wicketd January 14, 2011 4:47 PM GMT
Laugh
Report CVByrne January 14, 2011 4:58 PM GMT
Dad what's a muppet, well it's not quite a mop and it's not quite a puppet, but man can they, haha...

To answer your question I dont know.
LaughLaugh
Report SatelliteFlight January 14, 2011 5:00 PM GMT
LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report neill d January 14, 2011 6:02 PM GMT
I wouldn't think he'd win a Gold Cup this year anyway, Okay he came second to big Bucks but Big Bucks yreated him with the same disdain he treated Lough Derg the other day, at no stage did he ever look like winning the World hurdle, His form stacks up ok in terms of possibly winning this years RSA, but Gold Cup, this year, I don't think so. Also I think that if Mikael comes back to himself he is an intrinsically better horse than Rupert and will beat him in the RSA.
Report buddeliea January 14, 2011 6:57 PM GMT
Absolutely no evidence at all that says Mikd is a better horse than TFR,in fact looking at their respective races this season,the opposite is more likely.
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat January 14, 2011 7:31 PM GMT
ftm raised the question the other day......if tfr ran well or even won the argento would they be tempted to run in the gold cup?
looks like a legitimate question and fwiw i think it they might!
Report eric_morris January 14, 2011 7:38 PM GMT
If they want to go against the stack of evidence showing what a very bad move it would be they might. However if he is a true stayer in the mould of Denman maybe they should follow a similar novice route and reap the rewards next season when the 3 great horses in this years race will likely be over the hill.
Report ftm January 14, 2011 7:40 PM GMT
for the record i think novices are novices for a reason..totally agree the tfr should learn his trade b4 taking on seasoned jumpers.i was only playing devils advocate because by entering him in the argento you are asking yourself the question?!
Report paulo47 January 14, 2011 8:59 PM GMT
Dont think Gloria Victis is a fair comparison , at least TFR can go left handed .There are plenty of stats on various Chelt races that favour novices against their more seasoned counterparts , ok not in the GC , but that requires something special in a novice that we have yet to see . Doesnt make it an absolute no no in my book .
Report gutfeeling January 14, 2011 11:19 PM GMT
ok i mentioned on the "what have we learned about the rsa this weekend" thread that if he wins the argento he may be aimed at the gold cup and it seems to have stirred up some thoughts so here's the go.....trainer wants to go rsa/owner fancies gold cup,told by a friend who is very close to the yard and visits quite regular(weekly) as has known webber for a long time..personally i think the rsa is the better option as has time on his side but i dont own the horse and neither do any of you so its down to webber to convince owner otherwise as i doubt they log on and let these threads decide anything for them,would like to see him hack up in the argento myself then publically state they are staying within the novice ranks this year but right at this moment it is all up for discussion...if i hear anymore i will pass it on.
best wishes.
Report neill d January 15, 2011 12:01 AM GMT
I don't think its a great year for staying novices and I dont think Rupert will be winning any Gold Cups to be honest, he jumps nicely but I don't think he has the engine of a Gold Cup winner. Not really relevant exactly but if Quevega and Rupert met in a 3mile hurdle I'd fancy Quevega. As I say don't think the staying Novices are up to much, If Hells Bay is taking high rank it says it all really.
Report hemsby January 15, 2011 8:04 PM GMT
Personally I think TFR should run in the RSA,however after Kauto's performance today I just wonder if connections will go the Gold Cup route.....(Before you ask Eric, the answer is yes I have backed TFR for the Gold Cup.......£3.34 @ 303.59 [;)]
Report BJG January 15, 2011 8:06 PM GMT
Cant believe they are even talking about the GC Cry
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat January 15, 2011 8:07 PM GMT
looks a wide open gold cup considering the age of the main players..
Report eric_morris January 15, 2011 8:13 PM GMT
Maybe they will have to learn the hard way it is the wrong thing to do but I doubt it am pretty sure they will take the Denman and Long Run route to the Gold Cup by learning his trade in the RSA before taking on the seniors.

Long Run will be a bigger threat to Imperial Commander than Kauto would have been anyway he is a young up and coming horse who has the experience of a novice season and RSA behind him as the foundation for his current jumping ability. He looked dodgy at times last season but his novice season has got that together and their patience is paying off as it did with Denman.

They'd be crazy to go Gold Cup this season when they can try and win the RSA then come out as next seasons Long Run ready to go for Gold for a few seasons.
Report Mickie D January 15, 2011 8:20 PM GMT
ok folks - the reason rupert is running in the pillar (argento or whatever it is called this week) is that the horse adores cheltenham. where else does he get a 2m 5f+ novice race for him in advance - the Reynoldstown at ascot wouldnt suit and as the horse runs best fresh is too close to the festival.  there is a race at wetherby but why travel all that way when the pillar is up the road and in all likliehood what will be in it? Barbers shop/tidal bay/deep purple maybe - thats about it.  The 2 softest races pre cheltenham will be the pillar and the grade 1 betfair at ascot.  Albertas, planet of sound et al got a proper gruelling today - so webbers decision, albeit outside novice company, is absolutely the right one - if he wins he will be evens for the rsa (mikael or no mikael) and they will have to go there.  webber is a sensible man and wil do right by his horse
Report rymattock January 15, 2011 8:23 PM GMT
agree they wud b crazzy to go  for the gold cup. rsa will b no walk in the park and the gold cup looks like a strong year. imperial commander is very lightly races horse for 10 years old. he guna b very had to stop.
Report eric_morris January 18, 2011 8:29 PM GMT
Denman came out of his novice season after victory in the RSA Chase and won the Hennessy and Gold Cup. Long Run just came out of his novice season from the RSA Chase and won the King George. It could be they might try to rush Time For Rupert which history shows is a bad idea. Has a great chance to win the RSA then follow in the footsteps of Denman and Long Run next season. The Pillar is a lousy Gold Cup trial anyway they must be mad if they are going to go unplaced in a Gold Cup or worse.
Report tomdeane January 18, 2011 9:08 PM GMT
I agree that TFR should be in the RSA come mid-March but more because it looks as though next year's Gold Cup will be wide open whereas I don't see Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander all running sufficiently below-par to make this year's race a weak one. I'm not as against novices taking on their elders as some - at least not per se.

Out of interest, what are the stats for novices running in the Gold Cup? Are we sure this isn't another one of those "5-year-old's have awful records in the Champion Hurdle" quotes? How many novices running in the GC have had realistic chances?
Report Steeplechasing January 18, 2011 9:38 PM GMT
Stays, has class, is young, jumps superbly (touch wood) 3 from 5 at Cheltenham (2nd to Big Buck's and Tidal Bay in other two). Denman and KS 11 years old (49 years back to last 11-y-o winner).  IC is 10 just two 10-y-o winners since 1990.

16/1 NRNB available.  If he skates up in the Argento he will shorten for the GC. If he struggles he won't run in GC - money back.
Report Steeplechasing January 18, 2011 9:43 PM GMT
The Pillar is a lousy Gold Cup trial anyway


Not brilliant last 3 years but pretty sound trial overall


1997    One Man    9    Richard Dunwoody    Gordon W. Richards
1998    See More Business    8    Timmy Murphy    Paul Nicholls
1999    Cyfor Malta    6    Tony McCoy    Martin Pipe
2000    Looks Like Trouble    8    Norman Williamson    Noel Chance
2001    See More Business    11    Mick Fitzgerald    Paul Nicholls
2002    Rince Ri    9    Ruby Walsh    Ted Walsh
2003    Behrajan    8    Richard Johnson    Henry Daly
2004    Jair du Cochet    7    Jacques Ricou    Guillaume Macaire
2005    Grey Abbey    11    Graham Lee    Howard Johnson
2006    See You Sometime [1]    11    Andrew Thornton    Seamus Mullins
2007    Exotic Dancer    7    Tony McCoy    Jonjo O'Neill
2008    Knowhere    10    Paddy Brennan    Nigel Twiston-Davies
2009    Joe Lively    10    Joe Tizzard    Colin Tizzard
2010    Taranis
Report Should be studying January 18, 2011 10:04 PM GMT
The answer to the original question has to be no, nothing wrong has been done so far and the Argento could well prove a good move. In recent years it has become a second division type of trial but TFR will benefit more from this than a 3 runner 1/4 stroll somewhere.

If he wins the Argento, as he may well do, he will likely be a 6/4 shot for the RSA and still a 12/1+ shot for the Gold Cup. TFR only has one chance to win an RSA, will probably never have a stronger chance to win any festival race and the connections are not regulars in the festival winners enclosure.

Bearing in mind that the last three high quality winners of the Gold Cup and the impressive KG winner Long Run will be in the 2011 race, add in a decent Hennessy winner Diamond Harry, quality grade 1 horses like Pandorama and Punchestowns and that does not even take into account untapped horses like Pride of Dulcote. Does anyone really think TFR will run in the 2011 Gold Cup?

People may be talking this up to suit their own purposes, but it would be astonishing if TFR ran in 2011. In 2012 the three titans will be too old, and most of the new pretenders this year will have proved they are not going to win a Gold Cup. Enter TFR!!
Report neill d January 18, 2011 10:23 PM GMT
I would put all those hoses ahead of him as more likely winners as well should be studying, He doesn't have agood enogh chance in the GC to justify missing his one chance at a novice win at the Cheltenam Festival
Report davescrazy January 26, 2011 10:59 PM GMT
didnt read yesterdays r post but some1 told me that webber said that whatever time for rupert does the weekend the rsa will still be  the main agenda ???
Report gutfeeling January 27, 2011 12:50 AM GMT
apparently owner has cooled off on the gold cup idea......but the words used to describe the horse earlier to me was he is "bouncing" at home....they are very confident for saturday and should announce then that its rsa all the way from here.
i'd say unlucky any who took those fancy prices if they wasnt nrnb but there's always next year.
Report Koo.... January 27, 2011 10:35 AM GMT
They should keep the option of the gold cup till the last minute though.  Always leave yourself options.

It might go backward next year and be useless.  The youve missed your best shot of winning it.   Needs careeful consideration imo
Report Stake & Chips January 27, 2011 8:33 PM GMT
Very weak in the antepost markets right now...

Anything up? Cry
Report Albion Dan January 27, 2011 8:41 PM GMT
Out of saturday - Bad Scope, and apparently going straight for GOLD CUP [:o]
Report Stake & Chips January 27, 2011 8:43 PM GMT
Has this been reported yet?
Report Albion Dan January 27, 2011 8:44 PM GMT
All over Twitter, including people in the industry "reporting" it. Don't shoot the messenger if its BS tho.
Report Albion Dan January 27, 2011 8:47 PM GMT
People now saying straight to RSA????

he is defo out of Saturday tho!
Report Albion Dan January 27, 2011 8:49 PM GMT
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival-paul-webber-rsa-fancy-time-for-rupert-out-of-argento/812701/top/

Apologies for RSA scare.
Report Stake & Chips January 27, 2011 8:49 PM GMT
Surely more likely to go straight to RSA...hope so anyway.

Betting suspended on Argento with PP.
Report Rob January 27, 2011 8:49 PM GMT
Its on the R Post website now - straight to RSA
Report PeddlersCross January 27, 2011 8:51 PM GMT
3 words - blessing in disguise - Bolts up in the RSA!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Report eric_morris January 27, 2011 8:52 PM GMT
If this is the case they have been telling whoppers all along re the Gold Cup. Scared of getting beat on Saturday (bad scope yeah) which is very likely imo against Punchestowns, Hendersons horses on fire and the fact he goes means Hendo fancies him strongly imo, so Rupert's connections giving it a miss as it would take them off course for the Gold Cup. They must be mad they are certainly going to ruin him if the rumour machine is correct, lets hope not.
Report Albion Dan January 27, 2011 8:53 PM GMT
5/2 still available Punchestowns bet365 if anyone wants it.
Report eric_morris January 27, 2011 8:53 PM GMT
Weak in the market because of talk of the GC this was a great opportunity for the spoofers to lay the few quid on here to get a better price. Happened with Ghizao last week turned out to be spoofing.
Report eric_morris January 27, 2011 8:58 PM GMT
Time For Rupert was second to Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle last term and is unbeaten in two starts over fences.

Webber, who trains him for the Littlecote Racing Partnership, added: "He'll have five days on antibiotics and a quiet week, then we'll build him up and look again.

"He'll go straight to Cheltenham for the RSA Chase."
Report eric_morris January 27, 2011 9:02 PM GMT
Blessing in disguise as if Henderson has done as excellent a job on Punchestown's jumping as Long Run's I think we are going to see an impressive performance from Punchestown's on Saturday. You wouldn't want a novice to have a test against him and Tidal Bay with only 6 weeks to Cheltenham. Think it was Wayward Prince's connections said they themselves wanted a run pre-Festival that wasn't going to rip the guts out of him which is understandable. Blessing in disguise for Time For Rupert this scope imo.
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat January 27, 2011 9:12 PM GMT
agreed
Report gutfeeling January 28, 2011 12:29 AM GMT
shows how fast things change eh....a day ago was fine,get home from work to hear the news....least we can expect a fresh tfr in the rsa which can only be a good thing for the horse and of course us backers.
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