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Catch Me ifyoucan
13 Jan 11 15:28
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Sep 03
| Topic/replies: 18,579 | Blogger: Catch Me ifyoucan's blog
Albertas Run (IRE)  Jonjo O'Neill  11st 10lb
Barker (IRE)  W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Breedsbreeze (IRE)  Paul Nicholls  11st 10lb
Calgary Bay (IRE)  Henrietta Knight  11st 10lb
Captain Cee Bee (IRE)  E. P. Harty, Ireland  11st 10lb
Crack Away Jack  Emma Lavelle  11st 10lb
Deep Purple  Evan Williams  11st 10lb
Edgbriar (FR)  Paul Webber  11st 10lb
Forpadydeplasterer (IRE)  Thomas Cooper, Ireland  11st 10lb
Gauvain (GER)  Nick Williams  11st 10lb
Glencove Marina (IRE)  E. Griffin, Ireland  11st 10lb
Golden Silver (FR)  W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Hell's Bay (FR)  Colin Tizzard  11st 10lb
Hey Big Spender (IRE)  Colin Tizzard  11st 10lb
Jack The Giant (IRE)  Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
Joncol (IRE)  Paul Nolan, Ireland  11st 10lb
Kalahari King (FR)  Ferdy Murphy  11st 10lb
Kempes (IRE)  W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Little Josh (IRE)  Nigel Twiston-Davies  11st 10lb
Long Run (FR)  Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
Made In Taipan (IRE)  Thomas Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Mahogany Blaze (FR)  Nigel Twiston-Davies  11st 10lb
Master Minded (FR)  Paul Nicholls  11st 10lb
Medermit (FR)  Alan King  11st 10lb
Nacarat (FR)  Tom George  11st 10lb
Noland  Paul Nicholls  11st 10lb
Panjo Bere (FR)  Gary Moore  11st 10lb
Poquelin (FR)  Paul Nicholls  11st 10lb
Prince de Beauchene (FR)  Howard Johnson  11st 10lb
Psycho (IRE)  A. J. Martin, Ireland  11st 10lb
Punchestowns (FR)  Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
Quiscover Fontaine (FR)  W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Rare Bob (IRE)  D. T. Hughes, Ireland  11st 10lb
Riverside Theatre  Nicky Henderson  11st 10lb
Roberto Goldback (IRE)  Mrs J. Harrington, Ireland  11st 10lb
Rubi Light (FR)  R. A. Hennessy, Ireland  11st 10lb
Scotsirish (IRE)  W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 10lb
Sizing Europe (IRE)  Henry de Bromhead, Ireland  11st 10lb
Somersby (IRE)  Henrietta Knight  11st 10lb
Tartak (FR)  Tom George  11st 10lb
The Nightingale (FR)  Paul Nicholls  11st 10lb
Tranquil Sea (IRE)  E. J. O'Grady, Ireland  11st 10lb
Vino Griego (FR)  Gary Moore  11st 10lb
Weird Al (IRE)  Ian Williams  11st 10lb
Zaarito (IRE)  Colm A. Murphy, Ireland  11st 10lb
J'Y Vole (FR)  W. P. Mullins, Ireland  11st 3lb



Poquelin (5) , Master Minded (7) , Somersby (8) , Tranquil Sea (8) , Long Run (9) , Albertas Run (10) , JY Vole (12) , Forpadydeplasterer (14) , Mad Max (14) , Bensalem (16) , Golden Silver (16) , Petit Robin (16) , Punchestowns (16) , Riverside Theatre (16) , Breedsbreeze (20) , Kalahari King (20) , Sizing Europe (20) , Tartak (20) , The Nightingale (20) , Captain Cee Bee (25)  - Others 25 or more
Pause Switch to Standard View *** RYANAIR ***
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Report CVByrne January 13, 2011 4:12 PM GMT
I really wanna sick with my boy poquelin after his december gold cup win but 5/1 is a bit short given the strong opposition.

I have a bet on sizing europe at about 30/1. But that's it.

Jy Vole would be the ew play at this stage given her close 3rd last year and the fact she loves good ground.
Report alexmillwall January 13, 2011 4:28 PM GMT
got my boy poq at 20's :)
Report gutfeeling January 13, 2011 5:04 PM GMT
have riverside theatre and breedsbreeze both on here at 36/1 and 150/1 for buttons,looks like being another very good field though.
Report buddeliea January 13, 2011 5:25 PM GMT
Albertas again for me,love the way no one seems to back him,always a good price this one.
Report aka January 13, 2011 6:08 PM GMT
Where do you begin with this lot!

No French Opera, I see. Presumably, he'll now be entered for the Grand Annual alongside his entry in the QM. No Mad Max, though he has a QM entry.

J'Y Vole, I agree CV, is interesting. Do you have a view on any of the other Irish entries? I see Roberto Goldback was tipped for this  on the SP site today. I thought Rare Bob came back to form well at the weekend. Zaarito is in here and has not received a QM entry. I have always thought Scotsirish a bit more capable than he is often given credit for. Not sure Golden Silver would be suited by the trip; Kempes is a bit more interesting, though questions about whether the undulating course would suit. Forpady and Tranquil Sea in there as well.

At this stage, I would probably take Albertas Run from those at the front of the market. He does seem to get a bit underestimated by comparison with the likes of Poquelin and Tranquil Sea. Just have it in the back of my mind though that they might still have ambitions to take in the Gold Cup this time while the horse is still at its peak, particularly if it looked like coming up decent ground on the Friday.  I see they have taken an entry for him in the Gold Cup.
Report buddeliea January 13, 2011 6:40 PM GMT
yeh,thats possible AKA, but i am hoping that his obvious liking for Ryannair distance will swing it.i am sure they know that 3m2f is too much for him in the company he will have this year,as it was the last time he tried it.As you say though,its possible that given decent ground they will have a go.Waste of tinme imo,but there yer go!!
Report CVByrne January 13, 2011 7:28 PM GMT
Well Jy Vole will certainly reverse Durkan form with Tranquil Sea, she was finishing like a train and with an extra furlong and better ground both being in her favour.

Roberto Goldback needs soft ground.

Golden Silver hates Cheltenham and will certainly be taking his chance in the Champ Chase.

Scotsirish certainly has a big win in him, but is just below the class required to win this.

Kempes is a very interesting entry, a horse I like a lot and I'm pretty sure he prefers better ground. I'd want to see how he shapes on his next run and I think I'll skip betting on him for this as I've a feeling Powers Gold Cup is the way for him.

Forpady, we all know enough about him. He likes Cheltenham, likes a sound surface and this is certainly the race for him. But I've never really taken to him. His string of 2nds must be disheartening.

Now Rare Bob has a great chance, I was very impressed with his win at Leopardstown and he certainly warrants respect in this.

Sizing Europe hasn't been entered for the Irish Hennessy, which could be an indication he's not going to be going for the Gold Cup. Ryanair might be the option instead of switching back to 2m and taking on two very smart horses in Zeb and Master Minded.

...and whisper this quietly, Zaarito might be going for the county Hurdle.

If I had to place 3 bets today they'd be in order Jy Vole, Albertas Run and Rare Bob. But it's a hugely competitive race.
Report pun run January 13, 2011 7:46 PM GMT
Albertas for me, he likes Cheltenham and if he gets his good ground has a great chance, like aka said though they could go for the Gold cup. Seeing as hemmings had Burton Port ruled out for the season they may be tempted to run Albertas in the Gold Cup. Although his racing manager said they planned the same route as last year but that was before Burton was out. Forpady should go this route as well
Report CVByrne January 13, 2011 7:50 PM GMT
Mixed up there with Kempes and last season re: Powers Gold Cup.
Report Paul4 January 13, 2011 8:07 PM GMT
are there any other entry stages? or does a horse have to be on that list to run in the race? no chance of later entry?
Report aka January 13, 2011 8:25 PM GMT
Very useful summary, CV, thanks. It would be good to see Kempes fulfil his obvious potential and, as you suggest, a very interesting horse for races in Ireland later in the season if we get beyond this wet weather that is making the going such a bog.

Entries for previous Ryanairs have included quite a few horses with jumping frailties of one kind or another. Sizing Europe's clean jumping and ability to put others under pressure with his high cruising speed would be a big asset in this race, imo, if they settle on that target for the horse. Rare Bob is certainly the type to look at for a price, with doubts about quite a few of those likely to go off at shorter prices. Rather a forgotten horse, as we saw from the price he was allowed to go off at last weekend. As you imply, though, the Ryanair is a difficult race to get a feel for.

I think it is very likely they will go for the Ryanair with Albertas Run for the reasons you give, Budd. There was just a comment from the trainer after AR's win in the Ryanair, where he said he thought they had at last got the horse back to what he was and promised to be as a novice i.e. an RSA winner and very promising three mile chaser. Just a suggestion in that comment that they might be thinking there have been legitimate excuses for the horse not quite fully firing in open company over three miles in the past.

Hard to see beyond the front three in the market for the Gold Cup at this stage though. But if events unfold in such a way that you could take two, or even one, of those three out of the equation, it would put a different complexion on things. If that situation came about, on good ground, it might be very tempting to tilt at the Gold Cup with Albertas Run.
Report CVByrne January 13, 2011 8:46 PM GMT
It's a very intriguing race isn't it aka. I think I'll wait until feb before having another bet in the race. I'll need to mull things over and there are many horses to review. Albertas run should drift a bit after he finishes nowhere on soft ground in the King George on Sat and so should be left alone at this stage.

As for Kempes, I'd love to back him in the Melling or Aintree Bowl on decent ground, but I think punchestown, whatever race he runs in there. He was a big win last year. I like horses who's form on unsuitable ground yields decent odds when they have their conditions.

Rare Bob is so unfashonable that there will be decent odds on offer at some point on here when he's forgotten.
Report Extreme Conviction January 13, 2011 9:00 PM GMT
Another fan for Albertas if the ground comes up quick. Remarkable record record on good ground since going jumping. 1132311, with two thirds being on arguably much slower ground. One was 3rd behind Madison and Denman in the rearranged Aon when the ground was very tacky which he would have hated, the other was at Aintree in a novice chase, where times that day suggest it was soft.

On time based good ground he has 3 wins and a second to Kauto in the KG, very underestimated horse when he gets his ground.
Report ReaseHeath January 13, 2011 9:06 PM GMT
Kalahari King interesting entry in Ryanair and absentee from Champion Chase. Mad Max vice versa - appreciate that can change at supplementary stage but indication of connections current thinking.

Think Champion Chase is right race for Mad Max.
Report CVByrne January 13, 2011 9:21 PM GMT
Mad Max doesn't stay 2m5f especially at the pace Albertas will take them at the end. Kalahari King is finished at the game imo. I always really liked the horse. But French 10yo.
Report ReaseHeath January 13, 2011 9:31 PM GMT
I think Albertas Run is a big price now but agree he could drift after Saturday for reason you state above. There are two other potential bonuses there too in that AR jumps round and proves he's recovered from crashing fall at Ascot and Long Run runs the type of race that sees him targeted at Gold Cup.

Loved AR's efforts at both Cheltenham and Aintree last Spring - his jumping was electric - and not as convinced as most that MM had him beat at Ascot - still a long way out and AR looked to be running a big race to me.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 14, 2011 10:19 AM GMT
Safety Factor/Maximum Figure 24

Entries 46

Next Deadline is Scratching by noon on Tuesday, February 15th 2011

Supplementary Entries Close by noon on Friday, March 11th 2011
Report Mayweather January 14, 2011 10:38 AM GMT
Kalahari King has gone completely! Master Minded had Albertas Run beat but he would have had to be pushed out to do so. On soft service in March he will win the Champion Chase again!
Report chelts January 14, 2011 10:52 AM GMT
tranquil sea wont be far away
Report Swinia January 14, 2011 11:31 AM GMT
Glencove Marina could be very interesting...was travelling very well in the Lexus but didn't quite stay the distance in the ground. Was only 3l behind Tranquil sea in the Durkan and the trip should suit...33's looks value
Report Mayweather January 14, 2011 2:40 PM GMT
Chelts - he will be far away if he runs anything like he did in last years Ryanair Chase lol
Report Mayweather January 14, 2011 2:41 PM GMT
The Ryanair might be competitive if the likes of Long Run, Punchestowns, Somersby etc go for the races.
Report Albion Dan January 14, 2011 2:49 PM GMT
As you can see from my thread I have backed Noland for this, only other bet at this moment is Jy Vole who I backed at the start of the season. Had to get Betfair to add her to the market, poor that they didnt have last years 3rd in there!!
Punchestowns would really interest me if this was his target, as I think the distance would be ideal.
Report Mayweather January 14, 2011 2:55 PM GMT
I agree Albion Dan. I think Punchestowns's current price is tempting but it maybe best to wait until plans are confirmed.
Report CVByrne January 14, 2011 3:03 PM GMT
aka Dessie said the blinkers showed how little Rare Bob was doing in his races, "acting the maggot" to quote him.

With first time blinkers on he didn't see another horse on sunday and it goes to show how little he was doing.

Back to I/R lay bet imv.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 19, 2011 12:44 PM GMT
Poquelin (5) , Long Run (7) , Master Minded (7) , Somersby (8) , Tranquil Sea (8) , JY Vole (12) , Albertas Run (16) , Golden Silver (16) , Petit Robin (16) , Punchestowns (16) , Riverside Theatre (16) , Forpadydeplasterer (20) , Kalahari King (20) , Sizing Europe (20) , Tartak (20) , Breedsbreeze (25) , Captain Cee Bee (25) , Gauvain (25) , Joncol (25) , Noland (25)  - Others 25 or more
Report pun run February 15, 2011 11:47 AM GMT
anyone hear any news of albertas run lately, i thought he was due to run in the betfair as his prep for the ryanair this weekend going by what jonjo said after the st george about a month ago but he aint in the entries...hopefully all is well
Report marvinho February 15, 2011 1:00 PM GMT
Albertas very weak on here before the market closed for the next stage of forfeit and given he has always gone to Cheltenham with a prep, it doesn't look good.  Would hold fire on any bets until we hear further...
Report tomdeane February 16, 2011 11:10 PM GMT
Slightly worrying for sure but I couldn't resist a few quid at 16-1 because this race has cut up hugely and he would have a super chance if able to make Cheltenham in good shape. Still weak enough but bits and bobs appearing so hopefully all is well even though he is not in at Ascot.
Report pun run February 21, 2011 10:23 PM GMT
just found this and it aint something i wanted to see regarding Albertas....hopefully he's fit & well in just over 3 weeks

http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/racing/Backspin-gets-O-Neill-support-reverse/article-3214006-detail/article.html
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 2, 2011 11:09 PM GMT
Poquelin (9/2) , Riverside Theatre (6) , Tranquil Sea (8) , Kalahari King (9) , Albertas Run (13) , JY Vole (16) , Gauvain (25) , Weird Al (33) , Tartak (36) , The Nightingale (36) , Psycho (40) , Hey Big Spender (42) , Rubi Light (43) , Somersby (43) , Captain Cee Bee (49) , Voy Por Ustedes (51) , Noland (53) , Golden Silver (65) , Roberto Goldback (87) , Rare Bob (99)  - Others 100 or more
Report Cheltenham_Enthusiast.............. March 5, 2011 7:10 PM GMT
At the prices J'Y Vole is big. Only WH still going 16/1.

My fancy for this was Albertas Run, but looks like he will line up and take his chance in the Gold Cup.

On balance of looking at who will be running in this race the one that really interests me now is Kalahari King. When I was first looking at this race around the start of the year I didn't even consider him as he has been mainly kept over the Champion Chase distance throughout his career. I've always thought of him more as a stayer and the way he runs his races suggests he would relish further and now that his only entry is for the Ryanair I think it's all systems go!

Kalahari King has run to ratings in the 160's over imo an inadequate trip. With 5 furlongs further he can only improve on that. I make him my bet of the festival and have taken the 8/1 NRNB.

GL!
Report Cheltenham_Enthusiast................ March 6, 2011 11:43 AM GMT
Riverside Theartre is now ruled out with a hairline fracture.

For those interested Stan James are doing a special on Kalahari King going a stand out 9/1 NRNB. Be warned though they only let me have £50 on and the won't let you do him at that price in multiples.
Report Stake & Chips March 6, 2011 12:11 PM GMT
Surely it's about time Somersby was re-routed for this Mischief
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