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Cheltenham Festival
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11 Jan 11
23:44
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Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
Following on from the Novice Hurdlers to follow, below are 6 Novice Chasers from either side of the sea, whom I think can take high order in the coming months and at Cheltenham if they progress as expected.
1. Rock Noir - Arkle Chase (33-1 SJ, 41-1 BF)
(Lifted from previous post)
One I'm very keen on, and who I completely missed out in my first write up is Rock Noir. He fits the bill in that he was a classy hurdler, Grade 1 winner in France. Then JP McManus apparently forked out a fortune for him to come over to these shores. Such was the regard that he was held in that he was 2-1 favourite for a competitive handicap at Ascot on a saturday (think Beshabar won it?), when the odds came out midweek, before not making the race. This was off a handicap mark of 152. He then ran first time out in the County off 152 and was backed into 9/1 third favourite, so they obviously think a lot of him. He was disappointing here, but O'Neill's are notoriously not great first time out (excuse also for first time out this year).
Since embarking chasing, he has two electric runs to his names and two poor runs. However, there are possible excuses for those two failures. First time it was his first run for a while, and as I have said O'Neill's (especially this season) usually need the run. He then won next time out beating Phidippides. Phidippides is held in high regard by Evan Williams and was a 140 rated hurdler, yet Rock Noir brushed him aside with ease, winning in a time only about 3 and half seconds slower than the Haldon Gold Cup (and he was carrying 8lbs more than the winner). He then ran a shocking race at Bangor, stopping quickly next time out. However, that was only 8 days after his win at Exeter, and being a headstrong type (fitted with a cross noseband these days), it could be that he takes more out of himself in races than we think).
His most impressive win then came after a nice break to freshen up, when absolutely bolting up at Warwick in a decent time. He beat two 140 rated hurdlers (Keki Buku and Qozak) giving them 7lbs by 7 lengths in what RP described as a 'canter', if that form is taken anywhere close to literally, then it's one of the best runs by a novice so far this season. There are also reasons why he can improve more. Firstly his jumping is going from strength to strength (very good after he warmed up at Warwick) after being poor in his first run. Also being a french import, it may be he's only starting to acclimatise after coming over from france, often horses coming over from France do take a while to settle.
Some people may worry about this being his target (also priced up in the new Jewsons) but with Bellvano flopping for JP yesterday, and both him and O'Neill having no other obvious contender (GMOOH?) he will hopefully be targeted at the race. Also if he was being aimed at the 2.5 miler at the festival, I don't see why they would not run him a day later in the Dipper and not Sway? Hopefully from here he will go to the Kingmaker back at the same C+D he was so imperious at same time, before heading to the Arkle. This would fit in nicely to his schedule, giving him a 5 week break either side of the race. At the 50/1+ on Betfair he has to be of interest.
2. Shalimar Fromentro - Currently not quoted for anything - Novice Handicap Chase would be my guess or RSA?
One that has probably skipped many people's imagination is the highly unexposed 5yo Shalimar Fromentro trained by Nick Williams for his wife, Jane. Like many of Williams' young horses he seems to be bringing him along very slowly. He started him off in fact in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices' Hurdle at Chepstow, the fact he started him off in such a high quality race would indicate he thinks a lot of the horse. He put in a disappointing run finishing 5th of 8 beaten 40l. He then put in another disappointing run when making his debut over fences over 2 miles. However, on his next start when stepped up massively in trip to 3 miles he put in a great performance when going down 1/2l to Wymott. That was a very hot race that day with horses such as Adams Island, Definity, Fronteir Dancer and Flight Leader trailing in behind. Shalimar Fromentro was given a very very kind ride to put it lightly, slowly creeping into the race only being got at it when it was too late after the last.
It would be suggested that given the way he was ridden connections were worried about the trip, and there could be a different result if the race was run again. It must be also noted that this was at a time at which Nick Williams' horses had been badly held up by the weather and many had been running badly, so for him to run such a big race at this time must surely be a sign of the massive ability that he must have. He has been allocated a mark of 131 after the race, which could look very tempting for connections given the esteem Wymott is held in. Nick Williams' french imports are known to progress steadily throughout the season. The novice handicap chase could be right up his street at the festival, with a generous makr of 131 he should get a proper racing weight and given a more forceful ride over a slightly shorter trip he would definitely run a big race.
3. Beshabar - RSA Chase (20-1 VC, Sporting, 69-1 BF) or Novice Handicap Chase (?)
A very lightly raced 9yo with only 8 lifetime starts still under his belt. Formerly trained by Paul Nicholls for Harry Findlay, it's interesting that he's one of the few horses that Harry still has in training. A very talented hurdler when right, at the end of last season he was rated 149. Both chase starts have been plagued by jumping errors especially first time out at Cheltenham this season. After making a mistake at the first ditch he trailed at the back of the field, but after travelling poorly he came back on the bridle coming down the hill. Set to run a big race, he was then bought down 2 out when Chicago Grey fell in front of him, leaving Christian Williams no chance. Considering the winner Wayward Prince is much shorter in the betting for the RSA the 70s on Betfair seems a fair price if his jumping problems can be ironed out. More interestingly perhaps though is the Novice Handicap Chase, as he has now be given a mark of 138 (11lbs below hurdle rating). He won 2 competitive handicap hurdles (Grade 3 and Class 2) around that trip over hurdle last year (one off a 4lb higher mark) so the trip should suit. In fact taking out his first time out runs each season his form is 15111. If as I say his jumping problems are sorted he must run a massive race off 138 if he takes his chance in that race.
4. Stagecoach Pearl - Arkle (66-1 Betfred, 74-1 BF)
Not an obvious Arkle winner by any stretch of the imagination, coming through the handicap system, but this ultra progressive sort has run an RPR only third to Ghizao and Finian's Rainbow in the division, and as far as I can tell his topspeed of 146 for his Haydock run is miles clear of anything else. His last run was his most impressive after rallying after being headed. That day he beat Tara Royal by 15l giving it 7lbs and Smack That by 27l lengths giving it 17lbs. Tara Royal time before was only 12l behind Wishful Thinking giving it 6lbs! And similarly through Smack That, Stagecoach Pearl is a 15lb better horse than Tullamore Dew (who was only beaten 2l by Medermit, and has won his other 2 chase starts). The horses behind him that day and the time suggest this was a great run and he should not be underestimated at huge prices. He loves quick ground (why he's been put away over winter you'd imagine), though perhaps the Aintree 2 mile race might be more up his street given he's won over C+D before.
5. Royal De La Thinte - RSA (33-1 PP, 35-1 BF)
A horse who has come through the PTP field, having won his last 2 starts in that sphere at the beginning of 2010. He ran a very nice race first time out this season when going down by 7l to Bostons Angel at Down Royal. That form has been franked in no uncertain manner with the winner taking a Grade 1 over christmas. The third that day has also won since, with the trio pulling a further 29l clear of fourth. He then putting in an even better performance when stepped up to 3 miles on his second start this season, when hosing up by 10l to Alpha Ridge who would have loved the heavy ground (rated 135 over fences at the moment, buts rated 151 over hurdles). One thing that his stood out about Royal De La Thinte so far is his jumping, which would be a great asset to take to Cheltenham if connections decide to take up an engagement. However, he is only 6 at the moment, so connections could choose to pass it this year and stay in Ireland.
6. Peveril - RSA (25-1 freely available, 25-1 BF)
Perhaps not as dark a horse as the others, given his connections, but he still seems to have been relatively unmentioned by pundits for the RSA so far. A strapping sort,he was rated 139 at the end of his hurdling career. This included 3 wins last year (including beating the very useful Court In Motion giving him 3lbs), with the only defeat when coming 4th in the Martin Pipe Conditional Hurlde race at the festival off a mark of 138. An excellent jumper of hurdles, he possess a physique that was always likely to mean that he would come into his own over fences this season. Interestingly, connections started him off the same way as the very useful Burton Port (whom is also in their care). After trailing in a 24l third behind Grand Crus at Haydock in the fixed brush hurdle (Burton Port finished 2nd to Diamond Harry in the 2009 renewal) he then made his fencing debut at Folkestone on January 2nd. After taking a while to warm up he jumped well at the end pulling 5 lengths clear of Cannington Brook with ease. Cannington Brook isn't a bad sort, having only been 8l behind Wayward Prince two starts before at Cheltenham, and was also Grade 1 placed over the smaller obstacles. If as expected, he progresses, he looks sure to take high rank among the 3 mile novice chasers this season.
http://cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com/
EC
1. Rock Noir - Arkle Chase (33-1 SJ, 41-1 BF)
(Lifted from previous post)
One I'm very keen on, and who I completely missed out in my first write up is Rock Noir. He fits the bill in that he was a classy hurdler, Grade 1 winner in France. Then JP McManus apparently forked out a fortune for him to come over to these shores. Such was the regard that he was held in that he was 2-1 favourite for a competitive handicap at Ascot on a saturday (think Beshabar won it?), when the odds came out midweek, before not making the race. This was off a handicap mark of 152. He then ran first time out in the County off 152 and was backed into 9/1 third favourite, so they obviously think a lot of him. He was disappointing here, but O'Neill's are notoriously not great first time out (excuse also for first time out this year).
Since embarking chasing, he has two electric runs to his names and two poor runs. However, there are possible excuses for those two failures. First time it was his first run for a while, and as I have said O'Neill's (especially this season) usually need the run. He then won next time out beating Phidippides. Phidippides is held in high regard by Evan Williams and was a 140 rated hurdler, yet Rock Noir brushed him aside with ease, winning in a time only about 3 and half seconds slower than the Haldon Gold Cup (and he was carrying 8lbs more than the winner). He then ran a shocking race at Bangor, stopping quickly next time out. However, that was only 8 days after his win at Exeter, and being a headstrong type (fitted with a cross noseband these days), it could be that he takes more out of himself in races than we think).
His most impressive win then came after a nice break to freshen up, when absolutely bolting up at Warwick in a decent time. He beat two 140 rated hurdlers (Keki Buku and Qozak) giving them 7lbs by 7 lengths in what RP described as a 'canter', if that form is taken anywhere close to literally, then it's one of the best runs by a novice so far this season. There are also reasons why he can improve more. Firstly his jumping is going from strength to strength (very good after he warmed up at Warwick) after being poor in his first run. Also being a french import, it may be he's only starting to acclimatise after coming over from france, often horses coming over from France do take a while to settle.
Some people may worry about this being his target (also priced up in the new Jewsons) but with Bellvano flopping for JP yesterday, and both him and O'Neill having no other obvious contender (GMOOH?) he will hopefully be targeted at the race. Also if he was being aimed at the 2.5 miler at the festival, I don't see why they would not run him a day later in the Dipper and not Sway? Hopefully from here he will go to the Kingmaker back at the same C+D he was so imperious at same time, before heading to the Arkle. This would fit in nicely to his schedule, giving him a 5 week break either side of the race. At the 50/1+ on Betfair he has to be of interest.
2. Shalimar Fromentro - Currently not quoted for anything - Novice Handicap Chase would be my guess or RSA?
One that has probably skipped many people's imagination is the highly unexposed 5yo Shalimar Fromentro trained by Nick Williams for his wife, Jane. Like many of Williams' young horses he seems to be bringing him along very slowly. He started him off in fact in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices' Hurdle at Chepstow, the fact he started him off in such a high quality race would indicate he thinks a lot of the horse. He put in a disappointing run finishing 5th of 8 beaten 40l. He then put in another disappointing run when making his debut over fences over 2 miles. However, on his next start when stepped up massively in trip to 3 miles he put in a great performance when going down 1/2l to Wymott. That was a very hot race that day with horses such as Adams Island, Definity, Fronteir Dancer and Flight Leader trailing in behind. Shalimar Fromentro was given a very very kind ride to put it lightly, slowly creeping into the race only being got at it when it was too late after the last.
It would be suggested that given the way he was ridden connections were worried about the trip, and there could be a different result if the race was run again. It must be also noted that this was at a time at which Nick Williams' horses had been badly held up by the weather and many had been running badly, so for him to run such a big race at this time must surely be a sign of the massive ability that he must have. He has been allocated a mark of 131 after the race, which could look very tempting for connections given the esteem Wymott is held in. Nick Williams' french imports are known to progress steadily throughout the season. The novice handicap chase could be right up his street at the festival, with a generous makr of 131 he should get a proper racing weight and given a more forceful ride over a slightly shorter trip he would definitely run a big race.
3. Beshabar - RSA Chase (20-1 VC, Sporting, 69-1 BF) or Novice Handicap Chase (?)
A very lightly raced 9yo with only 8 lifetime starts still under his belt. Formerly trained by Paul Nicholls for Harry Findlay, it's interesting that he's one of the few horses that Harry still has in training. A very talented hurdler when right, at the end of last season he was rated 149. Both chase starts have been plagued by jumping errors especially first time out at Cheltenham this season. After making a mistake at the first ditch he trailed at the back of the field, but after travelling poorly he came back on the bridle coming down the hill. Set to run a big race, he was then bought down 2 out when Chicago Grey fell in front of him, leaving Christian Williams no chance. Considering the winner Wayward Prince is much shorter in the betting for the RSA the 70s on Betfair seems a fair price if his jumping problems can be ironed out. More interestingly perhaps though is the Novice Handicap Chase, as he has now be given a mark of 138 (11lbs below hurdle rating). He won 2 competitive handicap hurdles (Grade 3 and Class 2) around that trip over hurdle last year (one off a 4lb higher mark) so the trip should suit. In fact taking out his first time out runs each season his form is 15111. If as I say his jumping problems are sorted he must run a massive race off 138 if he takes his chance in that race.
4. Stagecoach Pearl - Arkle (66-1 Betfred, 74-1 BF)
Not an obvious Arkle winner by any stretch of the imagination, coming through the handicap system, but this ultra progressive sort has run an RPR only third to Ghizao and Finian's Rainbow in the division, and as far as I can tell his topspeed of 146 for his Haydock run is miles clear of anything else. His last run was his most impressive after rallying after being headed. That day he beat Tara Royal by 15l giving it 7lbs and Smack That by 27l lengths giving it 17lbs. Tara Royal time before was only 12l behind Wishful Thinking giving it 6lbs! And similarly through Smack That, Stagecoach Pearl is a 15lb better horse than Tullamore Dew (who was only beaten 2l by Medermit, and has won his other 2 chase starts). The horses behind him that day and the time suggest this was a great run and he should not be underestimated at huge prices. He loves quick ground (why he's been put away over winter you'd imagine), though perhaps the Aintree 2 mile race might be more up his street given he's won over C+D before.
5. Royal De La Thinte - RSA (33-1 PP, 35-1 BF)
A horse who has come through the PTP field, having won his last 2 starts in that sphere at the beginning of 2010. He ran a very nice race first time out this season when going down by 7l to Bostons Angel at Down Royal. That form has been franked in no uncertain manner with the winner taking a Grade 1 over christmas. The third that day has also won since, with the trio pulling a further 29l clear of fourth. He then putting in an even better performance when stepped up to 3 miles on his second start this season, when hosing up by 10l to Alpha Ridge who would have loved the heavy ground (rated 135 over fences at the moment, buts rated 151 over hurdles). One thing that his stood out about Royal De La Thinte so far is his jumping, which would be a great asset to take to Cheltenham if connections decide to take up an engagement. However, he is only 6 at the moment, so connections could choose to pass it this year and stay in Ireland.
6. Peveril - RSA (25-1 freely available, 25-1 BF)
Perhaps not as dark a horse as the others, given his connections, but he still seems to have been relatively unmentioned by pundits for the RSA so far. A strapping sort,he was rated 139 at the end of his hurdling career. This included 3 wins last year (including beating the very useful Court In Motion giving him 3lbs), with the only defeat when coming 4th in the Martin Pipe Conditional Hurlde race at the festival off a mark of 138. An excellent jumper of hurdles, he possess a physique that was always likely to mean that he would come into his own over fences this season. Interestingly, connections started him off the same way as the very useful Burton Port (whom is also in their care). After trailing in a 24l third behind Grand Crus at Haydock in the fixed brush hurdle (Burton Port finished 2nd to Diamond Harry in the 2009 renewal) he then made his fencing debut at Folkestone on January 2nd. After taking a while to warm up he jumped well at the end pulling 5 lengths clear of Cannington Brook with ease. Cannington Brook isn't a bad sort, having only been 8l behind Wayward Prince two starts before at Cheltenham, and was also Grade 1 placed over the smaller obstacles. If as expected, he progresses, he looks sure to take high rank among the 3 mile novice chasers this season.
http://cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com/
EC
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excellent threads EC
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diff class. cheers EC
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A few of us mentioned Royal De La Thinte in the "what have we learned about the RSA..." thread. For me, it was the best round of jumping I've seen by a novice this season. Absolutely foot perfect, made all, plenty of petrol in the tank left at the end, nothing could get near him.
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Excellent read again, EC, thanks. Glad to see Stagecoach Pearl in the list. May have hit the ceiling now in terms of potential, but even so has achieved enough already over fences to be interesting in an Arkle that might not be quite as strong this year as some previous renewals. Agree about Royal De La Thinte's jumping. Potential to be a very interesting staying chaser in the coming years where the emphasis is very much on stamina. I'll post some more thoughts later.
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Not exactly below the radar but Wymott and Flat Out too.
Wish I knew where the latter was headed - I thought RSA straight after the Supreme Novices last year but it looks like it could be the Arkle. Think he heads for the Irish Arkle trial next. |
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Good stuff EC - agree re Beshebar, I do not think we have seen the best of this; if trained from Ditcheat still, I am sure it'd be far higher profile and have obviously grander aspirations.
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Top stuff EC really interesting
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