Forums

Cheltenham Festival

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
willie the milk
10 Jan 11 17:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 801 | Blogger: willie the milk's blog
With the Festival starting 9 weeks tomorrow, what is your biggest fancy for glory and why?

I think Big Zeb will take some beating in the Queen Mum. He is the current champion and to be honest, I dont think last years 2ml novices are up to much other than the winner and it looks like SE will be going for, at least, the Ryanair. Master Minded looked back to his best but is he? With Woolecombe Folly clocking a faster time over the same C/D in December, does that really mean he is as good as ever? Not for me. If you get the chance to watch last years "Arkle" you will see WF trail in a well beaten last and he was a 25-1 shot trained by the master 2ml trainer. Big Zeb now jumps like a stag and I'm confident he will retain his crownHappy

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 2  •  Previous 1 | 2 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 61
By:
R Carver
When: 10 Jan 11 17:46
Hard to say, but if forced, Imperial Commander.

No idea why Denman would reverse the form (I don't buy the freshness angle - last yr they were convinced he needed the AON as a preparatory, as he'd had the yr he won it), Kauto is going to have a slog in very soft ground on Saturday, who knows what will hapepn after that, and none of the youngsters appear to have reached (or yet be capable of reaching) the required level of form. If Imperial Commander returns in the same form (not having the same preparation is a slight concern) i see no reason why he should be beaten.
By:
CVByrne
When: 10 Jan 11 18:01
My big fancy would be Big Zeb too. I think he is a serious beast who is improving. I think we might see something really special from Hurricane Fly too, I have a feeling he's gonna be a multiple winner. But we'll only find that out on the day.


Also Kauto will love the slow ground at kempton RC, he's a big slowboat these days. Don't want him outpaced by younger quicker horses. Between IC and Kauto in the Gold Cup imv. And as yet no race has left it's mark on him. Especially this far from the festival.
By:
AaJay
When: 10 Jan 11 18:19
knight pass in the bumper the way he quickens when asked makes me think the cheltenham hill will suit just perfect-not much from ireland so far me thinks as traders from one leading irish book only let me have 20 pounds on
By:
Bhudda
When: 10 Jan 11 18:40
Time for Rupert RSA for me.

Only doubt is if thats the route he takes
By:
willie the milk
When: 10 Jan 11 18:51
Can't see TFR running in any other festival race other than the RSA Bhudda. An out and out stayer
By:
Bhudda
When: 10 Jan 11 19:01
Think your right Willie.

Hard to see anything beating him.
By:
Howdi
When: 10 Jan 11 19:08
Time for Rupert meet the new boss
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Jan 11 19:12
Toss up between TFR,BZ and Finians Rainbow.If Pushed would say TFR.
By:
davenufc.
When: 10 Jan 11 19:27
if hurricane fly turns up to the festival this year, think it would take alot of beating
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Jan 11 19:30
problem with HF is none of us know how good he is.Bit like most of his opposition!!
By:
CVByrne
When: 10 Jan 11 19:35
True, we'll only find out on the day if Hurricane Fly is the real deal. I've always believed in him. I'm gonna be there to see him run too. I've never seen him lose, well he's only ever lost once here anyway.
By:
davenufc.
When: 10 Jan 11 19:40
think hf is real dael but when you look keeps beating the same horses in ireland.
By:
CVByrne
When: 10 Jan 11 19:48
Not much else he can do though is there? He can only beat the horses he'll face. At least each win over Solwhit has become more impressive. Hopefully he hammers his by a good distance next time. To show he's improving.

Though he had hammered Go Native twice who's beaten Binocular twice.

I personally think Fly is something really special. Hopefully we'll all see that in March.
By:
willie the milk
When: 10 Jan 11 20:25
HF could be very special but the CH does look a really hard race this season. There are at least 4 could win it. HF, Menorah, Peddlars Cross and Binocular and thats before looking at Dunguib, Kyber Kim Oscar Whiskey. It is goona be the race of the meeting.
By:
jair1970
When: 10 Jan 11 21:21
Good to see someone championing Big Zeb!

FWIW Despite the fact that it is unlikely to happen, I can seriously see all the championship races being retained this year...
And there's some good value in most of them.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 10 Jan 11 22:12
Quevega to do what she does in the mare's race biggest fancy - well, her and Big Bucks (obvious I know - wonder what the double pays?).

Biggest fancies in terms of having most confidence about them winning.
By:
magic carpet
When: 10 Jan 11 22:32
Was amazed when two "experts" in the post put up cue card as the worst value of the meeting.He is a long way clear of anything i've seen in the novice division and how anyone could crab his run behind menorah last time is beyond me.He looks solid value
By:
penzance
When: 10 Jan 11 22:33
Hurricane Fly,convinced this is the best for some time.
By:
orion
When: 10 Jan 11 22:38
Moai Chinn Tire for the Triumph Hurdle. 50/1 after winning a listed race by 9L beating Grandouet 15/1 by 15L.
By:
Bhudda
When: 10 Jan 11 23:27
That is a fair shout orion.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 11 Jan 11 00:08
Cue Card, stone bonking certainty
By:
Mayweather
When: 11 Jan 11 00:19
BIG BUCKS (6/4, 5/4, 11/10. EVS, 10/11, 4/5, 4/6 ANTEPOST)WIN WIN THE WORLD HURDLE (BANKER OF 2011 ALONG WITH FRANKEL IN THE 2000 GUINEAS). TIME FOR RUPERT WILL RUN AND WILL WIN THE RSA CHASE.MASTER MINDED ON GOOD//SOFT GROUND WILL WIN THE CHAMPION CHASE.
By:
thelegend
When: 11 Jan 11 02:25
i agree with the original poster regarding big zeb,one point about woolcombe folly in the arkle,the horse was a well backed outsider but suffered a bad fall schooling a few days before tha arkle,no confidence behind him after that.
By:
Gashboy13
When: 11 Jan 11 02:55
Agree with said tipsters. Cue Card - worst value. Strong traveller but looked a little one dimensional in the last race. It's a shame he hasn't run against anything decent novice wise to give a steer on his novice form. But Menorah went past him like he was stationary last time, in a race that didn't play to Menorah's strengths and Silviniaco Conti was unfancied that day. It makes his form look much better than I think it really is. Surely going to get done for toe by something - perhaps we haven't even seen it yet but i reckon there's something quick lurking in a stable somewhere where there are green fields.

Best value/bet - Not 100% decided yet but Binocular should still be favourite for the Champion Hurdle, one mediocre run behind very good horses first time out maketh not a faded champion. Just look at the time he clocked last year :-0 astonishing. Also like Dare Me for Neptune (or Supreme, but preferably Neptune), can be backed at massive win prices and trainer has won both races with unflashy types.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 11 Jan 11 12:06
Cue Card might not have beaten anything decent novice wise but he gave last year's Supreme winner, top weight Greatwood winner and big fancy for this year's Champion Hurdle a good run last time out. Silviniaco Conti and Clerk's Choice in behind are no mugs either, and he did it at Cheltenham

It is for me the best piece of 2m novice hurdling form around by a distance.
By:
CVByrne
When: 11 Jan 11 12:12
That just shows how over rated the bula win for Menorah is rather than anything else imv.

Backing short priced favs for the supreme. Not a chance in hell. I'd rather play one ew thank you very much.
By:
chelts
When: 11 Jan 11 12:24
sailors warne for the fred winter if it runs which i think it will owner/trainer had alexander severus a few years ago gambled on the day and wasnt far away same kind of profile as sailors warne imo
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 11 Jan 11 12:31
If you insist CV Happy
By:
Daggers Drawn
When: 11 Jan 11 12:36
Poquelin - Ryanair. Fits the profile seen within recent winners.
By:
willie the milk
When: 11 Jan 11 17:43
Still not convinced with Cue card either. It's form with Menorah does indeed read well, but last years bumper form is beginning to look a little iffy with Megastar and Al Ferof proving bitterly disappointing so far. As for Menorah, it has not yet proved he is in the same league as Binocular, Kyber Kim, Peddlars Cross and Hurricane Fly.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 11 Jan 11 18:13
Every time I look I think Albertas Run is a big price for the Ryanair - appreciate he's ground dependent and needs to prove he's none the worse for the crashing fall last time (when still going pretty well,imo) but the way he jumped at Cheltenham and Aintree last Spring left an indelible impression.

Ryanair does look like it might be a stronger race this year but if you think Bioncular is good value for CH at 5/1 based on his performance last year (and I could buy into that theory) then you must fancy Alberta's Run at twice the odds in places on a similar basis surely? CH also looks stronger race this year.
By:
Joist
When: 11 Jan 11 18:35
While I'm not a Cue Card backer, to crab his credentials based on the exploits of those behind in the Bumper seems a little harsh- it's not as if he was all out to beat them by half a length, in which case I'd understand that the form of those behind might have a bearing on Cue Card's actual ability. It was quite the opposite, he blew them away and was clearly vastly better than anything else.
By:
willie the milk
When: 11 Jan 11 18:42
Not crabbing CC bumper win Joist, just the form of the horses in behind. He looked miles better than the opposition last year, and still is. He also has the best nov hdl form on offer so far. It's just I think at 5-2 he is short enough and the Supreme has a habit of throwing up a big priced winner, of getting a short priced jolly beat.
By:
davenufc.
When: 11 Jan 11 20:07
agree about menorah beating two novices, may well be high class, but still novices and then was suddenly ch fav, seems silly to me.
By:
Joist
When: 11 Jan 11 20:09
Fair enough Willie. It just seemed a bit irrelevant to consider the form of horses so vastly inferior to Cue Card as a pointer to CC's ability.

I do agree that 5/2 is plenty short enough at this stage.
By:
Gashboy13
When: 12 Jan 11 01:24
Go back 12 months and look at Dunguib - His bumper worked out pretty well (Right of Passage/ Quel Espirit/ several other 140+ horses in behind) and he couldn't get it done in the Supreme (ok he didn't jump amazingly and the ride he got was questionable) although imo he is a vastly superior horse to Cue Card at bumper and novice hurdle stages of his career .

Don't think the bumper is a viable form guide for the Supreme at all, there's bits and pieces of form from in behind (Dare Me, Megastar [both bumper and hurdles runs since] with Shot from the Hip, Hidden Universe and Made in Time winning maiden hurdles), but nothing at all in graded hurdles from any of them bar Megastar (beaten). So although he slammed them, does that superiority translate into 5/2 over an entirely different bunch of horses in the Supreme considering what he has done over hurdles? The only reason he is quite so strong in the market is that there isn't a novice yet that has done anything to usurp him - but there will be.

And just a note on the form with Menorah, who clocked a time vs. Cue Card (on the other course) relatively 3s slower than he did in the Supreme with 3lb less on his back on similar ground. This is not detriment to Menorah, who in this case didn't have the race run to suit (clear evidence that he runs best off a very strong pace, having been beaten in slowly run novice hurdles twice last season and best ever run in strongest pace he's faced), more that the 4 1/2l Cue Card was beaten by isn't a fair reflection of the superiority Menorah has over him. But then again does this year's Supreme have horses like Menorah and Dunguib in it? At the moment, clearly not.
By:
Swinia
When: 12 Jan 11 21:39
On two that have been championed already. Big Zeb hasn't put a foot wrong and will go to Cheltenham with the same prep as last year.

Poquelin looks and improved horse this yr based in his win in the Vote AP Chase where he was 12llb higher (or 18) than previous yr. He has an exceptional record over C&D! Looks a very solid ew bet

Ghazio looks like he has all the credentials for the Arkle, nimble and fast over fences and a CD win !!!
By:
inchcailoch
When: 12 Jan 11 22:56
Medermit for the ankle( hopefully thats the route they take)it looks to be a poor year for novices so far
By:
magic carpet
When: 12 Jan 11 23:05
Gashboy13-interested to read your views on cue card.Little bit suprised as how you came to the conclusion that Silviniaco conti was unfancied for the bula though.Unfancied by whom excactly?wasn't he 5-2 for the race and came into the race unbeaten and on the back of two wide margin wins in grade2 company?
Page 1 of 2  •  Previous 1 | 2 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com