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On Thursday Pwise does his selection for the Gold Cup, so I thought we would have a little competition just for fun and post our own selection and what we think Segal will tip all selections on by Wednesday 3pm.
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Myself. Pride Of Dulcotte
I think Segal will pick Diamond Harry.
I would say Pandorama but there are a lot of ?'s whether it's his main target or if he will run.
I think Segal will pick Diamond Harry.
I would say Pandorama but there are a lot of ?'s whether it's his main target or if he will run.
I think Tom will put up Diamond H and Pandorama.
I also have backed both myself at 25/1 as Kauto, Denman and Imperial are all too old now, not many 10 year olds + win this race
I also have backed both myself at 25/1 as Kauto, Denman and Imperial are all too old now, not many 10 year olds + win this race
My personal selection is Denman.
Segal may put that up.
I dont think he will put up DH - from a handicapping point of view and previous Festival form its a million and therefore no value.
He said today he was going to put Burton Port up so if that is the way he is thinking i would say Pandorama or Weird Al. Second season novices with a sole blip that creates a bit of a price.
Segal may put that up.
I dont think he will put up DH - from a handicapping point of view and previous Festival form its a million and therefore no value.
He said today he was going to put Burton Port up so if that is the way he is thinking i would say Pandorama or Weird Al. Second season novices with a sole blip that creates a bit of a price.
Interesting that Tom was saying that he was seriously contemplating backing and tipping Burton Port. I fancied him to reverse with Diamond Harry as the latter may be a falt track horse (at least his trainer fears this is the case).
Denman is unlikely to be quite as good as he was at his awesome best now and I think Tom may avoid him and the other 2 at the head of the market. I am not sure either if Kauto and Imperial Commander are likely to be as good as they have been at their ages. Statistically very few old men win Gold Cups, but against this is the fact that the top 3 in the betting are all pretty special, so this is a stat there to be smashed up this year and I would put no-one off backing either of the three myself, although I won't be personally.
Pandorama I have in the back of my mind, may need soft ground, and by the Friday I actually cannot seriously remember proper jumping ground - perhaps it was when Dezzie beat Yahoo.
Discounting all of them then I would agree with the idea that Punchestowns and Midnight Chase are the 2 likeliest sorts. They are both on the up (although they need to be as they have a lot to find if the top three run into the high 170's or better), and whilst its hard to split them, I would favour Midnight Chase fractionally as a result of his seeming to jump the fences at Cheltenham very well whereas Puchestowns I think has not (yet) won a chase there and lacks a bit of experience of the course over the larger obstacles.
Personally I rather hope that Denman wins it again.
Sop for me a small sentimental bet on Denman, a more cerebral bet on Midnight Chase, and I think Tom may well go for him too.
Denman is unlikely to be quite as good as he was at his awesome best now and I think Tom may avoid him and the other 2 at the head of the market. I am not sure either if Kauto and Imperial Commander are likely to be as good as they have been at their ages. Statistically very few old men win Gold Cups, but against this is the fact that the top 3 in the betting are all pretty special, so this is a stat there to be smashed up this year and I would put no-one off backing either of the three myself, although I won't be personally.
Pandorama I have in the back of my mind, may need soft ground, and by the Friday I actually cannot seriously remember proper jumping ground - perhaps it was when Dezzie beat Yahoo.
Discounting all of them then I would agree with the idea that Punchestowns and Midnight Chase are the 2 likeliest sorts. They are both on the up (although they need to be as they have a lot to find if the top three run into the high 170's or better), and whilst its hard to split them, I would favour Midnight Chase fractionally as a result of his seeming to jump the fences at Cheltenham very well whereas Puchestowns I think has not (yet) won a chase there and lacks a bit of experience of the course over the larger obstacles.
Personally I rather hope that Denman wins it again.
Sop for me a small sentimental bet on Denman, a more cerebral bet on Midnight Chase, and I think Tom may well go for him too.
It wont matter what big Tommo puts up. It will just be looking for a price. Imperial Commander wins the 2011 Gold Cup. 5 pts win. Bet of the festival. LOVES cheltenham. Goes there fresh. Both in his favour. Has barely lost fresh and has won pretty much every year at the festival - different races all be it but its the 2011 winner for sure.
Pricewise is Pandorama.
Pricewise is Pandorama.
Could be either Diamond Harry or sizing europe with the greater likelyhood of it being Diamond.The run at last years festival was too bad to be true but the win in the hennersey proved that run was all wrong he looks the one outside the top trio with the raw ability to bridge the gap
its obvious that he doesnt take much races being a sir harry lewis. nick feels his optimum amount of races in the season is 2 and he had a good few more as a novice hurdler / chaser. maybe having had too many races as a novice and going to cheltenham at the end of it was th reason for the poor runs, rather than having a dislike for the place. i think its entirely possible that had he gone to any testing track at the back end of a tough season he would have faultered
He said in this week's weekender that the year on year the Hennessy earmarks horses of the highest quality. I'll be surprised if it's not Diamond Harry he puts up.
In soft ground Pandorama could be interesting and so far he's my only bet in the race, but in all honesty I can't see Imperial Commander getting beaten.
In soft ground Pandorama could be interesting and so far he's my only bet in the race, but in all honesty I can't see Imperial Commander getting beaten.
burtons injury has saved segals embarrassment
i wonder is burton port actually injured?
i wonder is burton port actually injured?
Burton port would have been far from embarrassed he looked to be a real contender,an improving young stayer who has grade one form at the track its a shame hes out for the year
THINK HE WILL GO FOR DIAMOND HARRY OR POSS MIDNIGHT CHASE I REMEMBER READING AFTER D.HARRY HAD WON HENNESEY THAT HE THOUHT D.HARRY WOULD HAVE GIVEN DENMAN A RACE CARRYING 11 STONE SO WITH IMPROVEMENT HARRY MAY WELL BE HIS SELECTION ,OR AT A BIGGER PRICE MIDNIGHT CHASE GIVEN THAT HE IS IMPROVING FAST AND LOVES CHELTENHAM ,HAVE TO TAKE MY HAT OFF TO MR SEGAL HE DOES PICK SOME CRACKING PRICED WINNERS AND HAS GOT ME OUT OF TROUBLE NO END OF TIMES
Me (Diamond Harry) Tom (Long Run) as he has already tipped it for the KG5
Me - Pandorama with Lads NRNB
Tom - Probably copy me or Diamond Harry.
Be interesting to see if any other firms go NRNB before Thursday
Tom - Probably copy me or Diamond Harry.
Be interesting to see if any other firms go NRNB before Thursday
Me - Pride Of Dulcote as a pricewise pick 25/1
Joncol and Tidal Bay if it rains 33/1 and 50/1
Picewise - Probably Pandorama
Although backing a NM horse at the festival wouldnt be my ideal bet, he must bring them over on a rubber dinghy
Joncol and Tidal Bay if it rains 33/1 and 50/1
Picewise - Probably Pandorama
Although backing a NM horse at the festival wouldnt be my ideal bet, he must bring them over on a rubber dinghy
Me - Imperial Commander all day. Suspect PW will go for Diamond Harry given that he has done him a favour in the past. Pride of D would be a value bet though.
Couple of thoughts for those who think IC is too old at 10:
Firstly, he is a young 10 year old - born late May 2001 - so will actually still technically be 9 come March.
Secondly, he is very lightly raced for a 10 year old. Just 18 runs and only 12 over fences. Six runs as a 5/6 yo, three as a 6-7 yo novice, four as a 7-8 yo 2nd season chaser, and four last year.
Compare that to Denman (22 runs, and 17 over fences), and Kauto (35 runs, 25 over fences). Therefore not only is he a young 10 year old but he is also a young ten year old with very few miles on the clock, particularly compared with Kauto (who i love but just can't see regaining the GC again - please lord let him win a 5th KG on Saturday).
Finally (and this is striking), check out his record on the sportinglife website and tick the box that highlights his runs off a 60 day (8.5 week) break: 111211, with the 2 being the infamous "dead heat" with Kauto, if the photo had been a yard either side of the line then his record would be unblemished.
Add to that his record at his beloved Cheltenham in chases: 114111 (with the 4 being a distant last in a novice race in which he was injured). I think we can justifiably discount that run, which again leaves an unblemished 11111 record at HQ over fences. Wins in Gr1 chases at the last 2 festivals can't be a bad thing either!
To my mind he is unlikely to face as stern a test in this year's gold cup as last year's, given that Kauto and Denman are both 11 year olds with plenty of miles on the clock, so i feel he is a very solid bet indeed at 4/1 NRNB.
If it were genuinely soft ground (unlikely) then i would worry about Pandorama. If the GC was run at Newbury in soft ground then i would definitely fear Diamond Harry (in fact I think DH would win if it were), but given a GC at HQ and normal good or g/s Friday ground I am really struggling to put up credible alternatives (possibly pride of dulcote?) and I don't see why/how Kauto/Denman should turn the tables after last year....
Apologies for the stream of consciousness - always welcome your thoughts!
Couple of thoughts for those who think IC is too old at 10:
Firstly, he is a young 10 year old - born late May 2001 - so will actually still technically be 9 come March.
Secondly, he is very lightly raced for a 10 year old. Just 18 runs and only 12 over fences. Six runs as a 5/6 yo, three as a 6-7 yo novice, four as a 7-8 yo 2nd season chaser, and four last year.
Compare that to Denman (22 runs, and 17 over fences), and Kauto (35 runs, 25 over fences). Therefore not only is he a young 10 year old but he is also a young ten year old with very few miles on the clock, particularly compared with Kauto (who i love but just can't see regaining the GC again - please lord let him win a 5th KG on Saturday).
Finally (and this is striking), check out his record on the sportinglife website and tick the box that highlights his runs off a 60 day (8.5 week) break: 111211, with the 2 being the infamous "dead heat" with Kauto, if the photo had been a yard either side of the line then his record would be unblemished.
Add to that his record at his beloved Cheltenham in chases: 114111 (with the 4 being a distant last in a novice race in which he was injured). I think we can justifiably discount that run, which again leaves an unblemished 11111 record at HQ over fences. Wins in Gr1 chases at the last 2 festivals can't be a bad thing either!
To my mind he is unlikely to face as stern a test in this year's gold cup as last year's, given that Kauto and Denman are both 11 year olds with plenty of miles on the clock, so i feel he is a very solid bet indeed at 4/1 NRNB.
If it were genuinely soft ground (unlikely) then i would worry about Pandorama. If the GC was run at Newbury in soft ground then i would definitely fear Diamond Harry (in fact I think DH would win if it were), but given a GC at HQ and normal good or g/s Friday ground I am really struggling to put up credible alternatives (possibly pride of dulcote?) and I don't see why/how Kauto/Denman should turn the tables after last year....
Apologies for the stream of consciousness - always welcome your thoughts!
Surely the 'value' on Midnight Chase has gone already.
Can't belive he will give Midnight Chase, simply not good enough.
Probably will give Diamond Harry
If he wants one to take on the big 3, he should play Punchestown
Probably will give Diamond Harry
If he wants one to take on the big 3, he should play Punchestown
Bookies seem to be thinking it is both DIAMOND HARRY + MIDNIGHT CHASE
Right here we go my value pick for the gc is Midnight Chase we are due a turn up and his fron running style could win it, i backed him at 30 and will stick with it . I hope that Denman can do it and believe that his Hennessey third is at the moment the best form on offer. Kauto Star has never found the gc to his liking and shows what a great horse he is by winning it twice before. I have no sound reason for opposing Imperial Commander except im looking from a value point and its difficult to defend your title. Diamond Harry is what Segal will go with. Lets hope they all get there and make it a marvellous race and all come back safe. Thanks for taking part in this guys, lets see what he goes for.
who was right? hat does the great man go for this time?
Tom Segal has tipped PRIDE OF DULCOTE at 25/1 lads nrnb or 28/1 c + BET365
I wonder will the layers push the prices back out on those 3 horses that they cut in advance last nite (DH, Pando & MC)???
Un****inglikely imo!
Un****inglikely imo!
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