A worthwhile investment

Interesting Mr Eboue..

I dont think either of te Nicholls pair will win it (though another of his could be a player); do think Imperial will so just backing him at the best prices i can get plus have a couple running for me at triple figure prices and 50s.

The prices look the wrong way around to me imo. Sgould be 4/6 for the big three.

Pandorama looks a threat, would need it Soft, imo, but not much else I can see just yet.

Personally think the tables could very well turn this year. I mean I would probably rather back Kauto 4/5 for the King George. It's an odd Gold Cup at the moment and I think the winner is probably trading at quite a big price at this moment.

Cracking bet,one of those 3 surely wins it,miles ahead of the rest.

Given that its been over 40 years since any horse older than ten has won the gold cup the stats don't look great for either Denman or Kauto star and given that no horse prior to best mate had managed to comeback to successfully defend the gold cup since L'Escargot doesn't bode well for Imperial Commander either

Stats eh,
what about the fact that Kauto,Denman and IC are streets ahead of any other horse that we know of over Gold Cup c&d,that must play a part i would think.

I'm just playing devils advocat in stating a couple of points related to recent history of the race.Kauto star for one has repeatedly broken stats throughout his career notably when reclaiming the cup after defeat and as you rightly say the trio are a long way clear of the field on ratings and form

Just an FYI, Mr Eboue.
If you dutch the best prices with high street bookmakers (9/2 IC 5s KC and 8s Denman) you are going to get a payout of about 2.17. Not an enourmous difference but all helps in the long run. If as you say your not overly keen on Denman you could even back him just to cover your other bets and give yourself a better return on the front 2.

Incidentally, when Paddy Power came up with this they were obv thinking along the same lines as Sintonian as they originally went 1/2 the big 3. They must of laid a fair few bets to their restricted clients at the 6/4 'the field' as for those who are that way inclined, backing the big 3 in singles along with the 6/4 the field would have locked in a relatively sizeable risk free return.

R Carver,"(though another of his could be a player)" just wondering who that's implying?

Pride of Dulcote maybe.

Paul4 / Rease - yes, I think he'd have a realistic e/w chance and if his prep goes smoothly i can see him starting shorter than 40's. What do you guys thnk?

Trainer said Punchestowns was beaten by fitness at newbury, but surely Pride of Dulcote will also improve for the run. I've long range AP bets on both. As much as i would love to see Kauto or Denman win it, i just cannot see it; i think they have too many miles on the clock and cannot see how Denman can reverse the form (the suggestion seems to be that he will improve for skipping the AON, though i think the yr he won it, the AON was his prep race; though horse's requirements do change); Kauto can run better on really decent ground, but that would not inconvenience Imperial Commander either). I think Imperial will start a red hot fav. I think Diamond Harry is a player and is being campaigned sensibly, though even if he reproduces his best runs it may still leave him short of Imperial. I thought Michel Le Bon was a contender at the start of the yr but he seems nowehere nr his comeback judging by his price.

What do you think?

Think he is a bit short on exeprience tbh. Only had two runs and and I expect he wont have many more than another 2 before GC day..

Nicholls has What A Friend aswell but he'll need to improve again.

Nicholls will be saving something for fir the Bowl at Aintree aswell .. could be WAF actually for a repeat.

Inexperience an issue, certainly; possibly 'soundness' too given his problems. i've backed at a v large price, so only a small stake. Suspect WAF may go to Aintree for a repeat - tends to be a softish G1, and I feel he has no chance in March.

It would be a bloody site bigger shock if kauto won it again than if Denman won it again.

I agree with PP. Denman's run in the AON last year messed up his GC chances. AP set off to get him into a rhythm without really forcing the pace the way he did the year he won. I think Sam Thomas will revert to the tactics that won him the race and put KS's jumping and IC's stamina under pressure.
What about Tidal Bay, is he running? Flew home in the Betfair against IC and could be a mild surprise contender.

I just don't think Punchestowns will be good enough based on what we've seen to date - think Pride of Dulcote has more scope for improvement (wish we could've seen more of the race at Newbury!).

Agree the signs now are that WAF won't be good enough and will probably bypass Gold Cup. Nicholls not averse to running three or more and some of his fringe contenders like Taranis and Neptune Collonges look past their best so maty not line up. Would think Pride of Dulcote is third string to his bow - biggest problem might be, because he's been off a long time (before Newbury), they probably want to get another run into him (possibly the Pillar,Argento or whatever it's called) and it might be closer to GC than they would like.

Could see him at least making the frame though.