Cheltenham Festival
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Was very very impressed with his run yesterday, and after reading Nicholls' comments they were too. He said he will have entries in the Ryanair and Gold Cup, but surely the Ryanair would be right up his street! As much as Poquelin has improved, surely Noland is a much better animal than him if back to his best, and I think yesterday's run shows he has a lot of his old ability still intact.
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In addition, I took some 42 on here yesterday and wish I hadnt, as have just seen Will Hill have him in at 50/1 (currently only firm with him in the market) but i thought he should be around the 16/25s mark, even over doubts of which race he will target.
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Poquelin is a 170 horse making him one of the to chasers in the country. Noland will be hard pressed to reach that rating.
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50/1 is a cracking price from Billies. A horse that can go on any ground, has festival winning form and is crying out for the Ryanair trip. Shows he still has pace over 2m at Kempton yesterday and winning races in Ireland on heavy at 2m5 form part of a lovely profile for the race. If he wins the handicap on the course that they run on on Ryanair day of the Festival on New Year's Day, 50/1 will appear even more ludicrous. John Hales is also more than likely to run Neptune Collonges in the Gold Cup (perhaps a prep for the GN) and Noland will probably stay at the distance he was running at before his injury in his comeback year before potentially being stepped up to 3m next year. Previous Festival form is so crucial come March, just look at Albertas Run in this very race last year.
Avail yourselves of those 50s. Not a smart bit of pricing from Billies. |
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The Commander, good post, they are most of my arguments. Thought yesterday was a superb run considering he was never going to have the speed to go with a race fit genuine 2 miler like pepe.
CV I am a big fan of Poquelin, but look at it, up to now he has only won handicaps, all be it his last one off topweight was superb. Noland has won grade 1's over hurdles and fences including at the festival. Surely you must agree 50/1 is bordering on insanity for a horse of his undoubted talent. |
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If he turns up on the day 50s is a huge price, but given his injury record that is far from certain to happen.
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I do agree 50/1 about the horse represents excellent value, I was just say I don't see him ever reaching Poquelins rating of 170. Still 50/1 is great value indeed if he goes for the Ryanair and not the Gold Cup.
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He may have had a couple of setbacks, but that must be built into the price as well.
cv, I don't see how a supreme winner and grade 1 chaser couldn't go on to achieve a similar rating to Poquelin. It is just my opinion but I don't think he will go for the gold cup. For one the owner has Neptune who may go for that, and secondly I think nicholls was probably surprised how close noland got to a (hard held) pepe over 2, and that would probably sway him into not going over staying trips. I may be wrong, but he is 50/1 afterall. [:D] |
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Off the track for 2 years man, that is the only reason, he's aged without improving. It's rare that horses fulfil their potential when out for that amount of time.
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owner has albertas run, surely he'll split them up?
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John Hales and Trevor Hemmings are different people [smiley:crazy]
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Agree with that CV, but I just think his run vs a race fit Pepe Simo, over a trip too short, after a 2 year layoff shows he retains a modicum of his ability, and at the price i'm willing to speculate whether he will get back to how good he was, or even improve on that.
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I'd be staggered if this had the speed for the RYanair. Before its injury it was slow so i think it will need further.
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You say you'd be staggered if he had the speed, but a key ingredient to finding a Ryanair winner is ignoring the myth that you need a speed horse. On the old course, which is the most stamina sapping 2m5f circuit in the UK, it is run on, you want to select a 3m horse over a 2m horse if you had to forcefully divide every horse in the race into one of those two categories.
Look closely at the last two years....2009 favourite was Voy Por Ustedes who "had the speed etc." but was outdone by Imperial Commander who was always a 3m horse compared to the more 2n suited Voy Por. 2010 favourite was Poquelin who also "had the speed etc." but was outdone by more of a 3 miler than a 2 miler in Albertas Run, who had already won a 3m Grade 1 in the RSA Chase and placed 2nd in the Grade 1 King George also over 3m. If this horse hacks up on New years day in the 2m 5f handicap, people may ridicule me for saying this, but Ruby has a difficult decision on his hands between Noland and poquelin. A proven Grade 1 Festival winner versus a horse who is no doubt very talented, but a horse who is beginning to look more and more like just a brilliant handicapper who is just slightly short of top class in graded company. There are 20/1 antepost shots for the Festival, let alone 50/1 ones, who have far less promising potential credentials for a race than Noland does for the Ryanair. 50/1 is a price worth taking. |
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ruby might not have a decision to make
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2 things Commander.
1 The Ryanair is run on the new course 2 Voy Por Ustedes' jumping was the problem that day, not his staying. |
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The Commander - i agree, there is no doubt you need to stay. You do in most Festival races. 50s is very fair. If its softish, it would play into his hands too.
Regarding VPU, i do not think it was a bad effort getting beaten by a GC winner, particularly given the crucial errors VPU made. However, I just still think Noland could be done for speed - lots have been. I think he is a stayer and i can think of a few stayers that have been run off their feet in the race. I agree re Poquelin - as i've said elsewhere, I am a bit sceptical of his elevated rating and wonder how he can reverse last yr's form (he had 24 races on the clock before showing apparent improved form LTO - that is surprising to me, and I wonder if it can be all it seems; lots have however gone one better in subsequent renewals though - Fondmort, Our Vic and Taranis have come back from defeats to win it i think). I am also just a bit sceptical of Noland's G1 credentials. Obviously it cannot be a fluke to win 2, which he has, but his supreme (where he outstayed Straw Bear) wasn't exactly vintage (though it contained Sublimity, who later won a substandard Champion, and tough handicapper Buena Vista) and his win against The Listener didn't inspire me. He looked a slow horse in the Arkle (crazy favourite). I could be wrong but i just took the opinion of him before his injury, when he was on the up, that he'd simply been well placed to scoop nice pots against moderate opposition. I always thought he'd come unstuck agains something with a touch of class and have been waiting to oppose him as a short price favourite since. Unless I see something I dont expect to see, i'd be surprised if he was good enough to win a decent Ryanair renewal - tho 50s is fair, so GL to you. |
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Taranis didn't actually, thinking backwards.
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I do enjoy the way people examine every run to the pound and think it is an exact science, Some horses take different routes to the top and put in different performances during the season.
I agree i fit noland is a good price at 50's thou. |
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Apologies for mixing up my olds and news. Of course, what I meant was the Ryanair is run on the new course, not the old course on which Poquelin has won both his ****.
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**** = December Gold Cups
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No problem mate I get things mixed up the whole time myself, I agreed with most of your post. I only had the two points. Can't rule Poquelin out given he won the AP Chase under top weight over course and distance. His record is 121 on that.
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still pleased with the 95s i took a few weeks ago :)
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Imo noland goes on any ground!
Ground is a massive part in my thinking when i make a selection, so therefore looking at an antepost bet, the only antepost bets worth having are on horses which are decent value, which goes on any ground. I must admit you can normally guarentee cheltenham will be around about good to soft good in places due to their policy nowadays of watering for what they call 'decent' ground. |
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Billies how halved in price to 25/1. As short as 14/1 with £3.65. Here's hoping he wins nicely on New Year's Day over 2m5f and connections do the sensible thing by going down the Ryanair route rather than the Gold Cup one. 25/1 could even look big come the 2nd Jan.
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50/1 was a cracking price, well done those who got it. It's not potential you're betting on here fwiw, try rewatching his last chase, most just look at the bare form, you may even think 25s is big, hth [;)]
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must make my 95s a super cracking price? :) if i had to pick one for ryanair it would be somersby (love the horse) but noland must have a great chance if back to best?!
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If the KG is re-opened, i wonder if he will go there rather than Cheltenham on new years day?
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14/1, more sensible.
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Any more news on Noland after he was taken out on NYD?
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140 to lay here. Has he had a setback
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PFN just tweeted me, "Cheltenham 29th" so Argento or the 2m5 Hcap Chase? At least he hasnt had a setback!
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Fortunately the 2m 5 handicap chase. Off a mark of 157, expect to see him win that and then be a 12/1 shot for the Ryanair.
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Albertas Run (IRE) Jonjo O'Neill 11st 10lb
Barker (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 11st 10lb Breedsbreeze (IRE) Paul Nicholls 11st 10lb Calgary Bay (IRE) Henrietta Knight 11st 10lb Captain Cee Bee (IRE) E. P. Harty, Ireland 11st 10lb Crack Away Jack Emma Lavelle 11st 10lb Deep Purple Evan Williams 11st 10lb Edgbriar (FR) Paul Webber 11st 10lb Forpadydeplasterer (IRE) Thomas Cooper, Ireland 11st 10lb Gauvain (GER) Nick Williams 11st 10lb Glencove Marina (IRE) E. Griffin, Ireland 11st 10lb Golden Silver (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 11st 10lb Hell's Bay (FR) Colin Tizzard 11st 10lb Hey Big Spender (IRE) Colin Tizzard 11st 10lb Jack The Giant (IRE) Nicky Henderson 11st 10lb Joncol (IRE) Paul Nolan, Ireland 11st 10lb Kalahari King (FR) Ferdy Murphy 11st 10lb Kempes (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 11st 10lb Little Josh (IRE) Nigel Twiston-Davies 11st 10lb Long Run (FR) Nicky Henderson 11st 10lb Made In Taipan (IRE) Thomas Mullins, Ireland 11st 10lb Mahogany Blaze (FR) Nigel Twiston-Davies 11st 10lb Master Minded (FR) Paul Nicholls 11st 10lb Medermit (FR) Alan King 11st 10lb Nacarat (FR) Tom George 11st 10lb Noland Paul Nicholls 11st 10lb Panjo Bere (FR) Gary Moore 11st 10lb Poquelin (FR) Paul Nicholls 11st 10lb Prince de Beauchene (FR) Howard Johnson 11st 10lb Psycho (IRE) A. J. Martin, Ireland 11st 10lb Punchestowns (FR) Nicky Henderson 11st 10lb Quiscover Fontaine (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 11st 10lb Rare Bob (IRE) D. T. Hughes, Ireland 11st 10lb Riverside Theatre Nicky Henderson 11st 10lb Roberto Goldback (IRE) Mrs J. Harrington, Ireland 11st 10lb Rubi Light (FR) R. A. Hennessy, Ireland 11st 10lb Scotsirish (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 11st 10lb Sizing Europe (IRE) Henry de Bromhead, Ireland 11st 10lb Somersby (IRE) Henrietta Knight 11st 10lb Tartak (FR) Tom George 11st 10lb The Nightingale (FR) Paul Nicholls 11st 10lb Tranquil Sea (IRE) E. J. O'Grady, Ireland 11st 10lb Vino Griego (FR) Gary Moore 11st 10lb Weird Al (IRE) Ian Williams 11st 10lb Zaarito (IRE) Colm A. Murphy, Ireland 11st 10lb J'Y Vole (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 11st 3lb |
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That's the dream Commander!
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Entered for the 2m5 hcap next Saturday, does he need to win to keep the dream alive? Can't see too many unexposed entries in there with him...
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Little Josh would be a good yardstick off roughly level weight given how important the Paddy Power/**** have been as trials for the Ryanair.
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**** is an Irish bookie whose name the forum does not like who used to sponsor th 2m 5 chase at the December Cheltenham meeting.
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Does anybody know if any bookies are doing NR/NB on the Ryanair, thinking about having a couple of bets on this race
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Good point strontium, hopefully he runs so we can get a handle on how well Noland is.
PP12, no I dont think they are NRNB on Ryanair yet. |