Imperial Commander beats Tidal Bay a length and a quarter. IC now 5/1 for the Gold Cup, TB 50/1. Peddler's Cross beats Starluck a length and a quarter. PC now 6/1 for the Champion Hurdle, Starluck 55/1.
I'm not making a case for either TB or Starluck, but just wanting to illustrate how we all get sucked into preconceptions about horses. TB finished with such a flourish that, if you owned him you'd be thinking you would have a fair chance of turning the tables in the Gold Cup, with a better round of jumping and a more extreme test. Similarly, has no-one considered that Starluck, who is said by his trainer to be a stronger horse this year, might have blown up when he ranged alongside PC, looking for a moment as if he would swamp him for pace on the run-in? We all tend to focus on the big names, and ignore those who don't fit our ideas of Championship pretenders. I don't think Starluck's effort got more than a passing mention by Channel 4, such was their idolisation of PC. A length and a quarter is not a lot...................
Right... 2 things! Firstly, IC won the GC last year and was pushed out virtually hands and heels in the betfair chase! So why would anyone presume that a horse with huge problems with his attitude towards racing would go to Cheltenham where both the need to jump better and the huge test suit IC perfectly. IC is a Cheltenham specialist and i can tell you for free if you cant beat him when not trying at Haydock then you dont beat him in the race he was bred for at Cheltenham! Secondly, the world hurdle depends totally on the mind-frame of binocular. If binocular wants to win he wins, and if he doesnt Peddlars Cross does! Now these arent perceptions about horses they are opinions based on form that is there for everyone to see!
Right... 2 things!Firstly, IC won the GC last year and was pushed out virtually hands and heels in the betfair chase! So why would anyone presume that a horse with huge problems with his attitude towards racing would go to Cheltenham where both the n
Even NT-D admits Imperial is a hard horse to get right. So far, he's managed to do so at cheltenham but his runs in the King George, at Aintree and at Punchestown the season before were diabolical. As for the Champion (not "world") hurdle, don't you think your views are a tad blinkered and simplistic?
Even NT-D admits Imperial is a hard horse to get right. So far, he's managed to do so at cheltenham but his runs in the King George, at Aintree and at Punchestown the season before were diabolical.As for the Champion (not "world") hurdle, don't you t
IC is a 'hard horse to get right' due to physical issues not attitude issues, making him alot more reliable than TB. Every bad run has had a reason whether it be physical or due to an illness in the yard. It is unfair to presume that IC only works at Cheltenham as i remember him winning a bit of prize money a few weeks ago at Haydock (and arguably the same at Haydock last year). Until TB comes within a 'deat heat' of IC he cant be even be compared to the IC that 'dead-heated with KS' last year never mind the one that won the GC easily beating the best horses in this staying chase generation. For that reason 50-1 is a more than reasonable price as is 5-1 on IC. And with the Champion Hurdle Binocular had been waiting for years and finally got his attitude right. And unlike in the GC field Peddlars Cross is a ready alternative to him and has more reliable form then Starluck which is a shame as i really like Starluck as a horse. I remember through following IC in his novice hurdling season TB was in the same races often and showed alot of potential. I like the horse alot and hope he does challenge IC, KS and Denman, just unfortunately cant see it. On talking about simplistic views however TB would have been beaten much further had IC been pushed to the line and IC was also having his first run of the season (which can mean alot fitness wise) which you seem to have ignored. TB also does alot better with Brian Hughes then with any other jockey so fingers crossed to them he does ok in the GC, i just cant see it personally
IC is a 'hard horse to get right' due to physical issues not attitude issues, making him alot more reliable than TB. Every bad run has had a reason whether it be physical or due to an illness in the yard. It is unfair to presume that IC only works at
i'd agree the price differences are too big Cyclops. More so in the case of Starluck as he does do it on the racetrack more often than TB. And by ''do it'' , I just mean runs his race.
1.5 lengths is nothing but you can find reasons as to why the distances will be further next time out, or reason why the distances were flattering. It all depends what view you hold.
i'd agree the price differences are too big Cyclops. More so in the case of Starluck as he does do it on the racetrack more often than TB. And by ''do it'' , I just mean runs his race.1.5 lengths is nothing but you can find reasons as to why the dist
You could argue, Commander, that another furlong in the Haydock race would have seen a comfortable victory by Tidal Bay. He was eating up the ground at the line, and I'm not sure IC could have given a lot more. I'm not seriously entertaining TB as a Gold Cup horse - he has the talent, but probably not the attitude or the jumping ability - but I am saying that its easy to dismiss those off the radar, particularly when we know, like Tidal Bay, that they have huge ability. Punjabi would be a recent case of one who had won grade ones, and had already finished very close at Championship level, but attracted no support for his Champion Hurdle win.
You could argue, Commander, that another furlong in the Haydock race would have seen a comfortable victory by Tidal Bay. He was eating up the ground at the line, and I'm not sure IC could have given a lot more. I'm not seriously entertaining TB as a
IC was a clear case in last years GC, not many people mentioned him although he clearly had KS almost cooked in the betfair when half fit. It was a disgrace how he was treated last year and i understand what your saying.But TB would not have beaten IC as Paddy had stopped riding him, hence he was slowing
IC was a clear case in last years GC, not many people mentioned him although he clearly had KS almost cooked in the betfair when half fit.It was a disgrace how he was treated last year and i understand what your saying.But TB would not have beaten IC
Point taken, but I think your reference to last season enhances the point I started out with. You can follow the received wisdom, or you can think independently and assess what you see and, if the latter, then some strange discrepancies emerge. Of course, its all down to judgement and that's what eventually determines whether you're a good punter or not. But, to return to Peddler's Cross, those who think he's now proved it, he'll improve from the run, he's a worthy Champion Hurdle second favourite have to consider just where they place Starluck in the mix.
Point taken, but I think your reference to last season enhances the point I started out with. You can follow the received wisdom, or you can think independently and assess what you see and, if the latter, then some strange discrepancies emerge. Of c
Cyclops, on the face of it, a fair point about price differentials. Digging deeper, we see that TB has not won over fences for more than two years (8 outings) I doubt that in the history of the Gold Cup a horse with such a record has won it.
On Starluck, I like the horse a lot, but in two Festivals, there is substantial evidence that, good as he is on flat tracks, the hill drains him. I believe his trainer when he he says the horse has strengthened noticeably since last year, but if he could not pass Peddlers Cross at Newbury, I cannot see how he can do so at Cheltenham in March.
Cyclops, on the face of it, a fair point about price differentials. Digging deeper, we see that TB has not won over fences for more than two years (8 outings) I doubt that in the history of the Gold Cup a horse with such a record has won it.On Starlu
I was a big supporter of Tidal Bay in the World Hurdle last year having backed him at around 300. I do think he suits hurdles much better than fences. His jumping of fences is too sticky, and his attitude in the majority of races these days is a major problem. His run at Haydock was reminiscent of his run at Cheltenham (I think in the Ryanair from memory), when he was tailed off before the race got going and then ran on making punters think "if only". This is his problem, he gives hope to supporters running on late when the race is done, but isn't competitive often enough when the race is decided. I'm actually quite surprised at how short Tidal Bay is for the Gold Cup. He is not going to suddenly improve at his age. As for IC, his price is about right. He has every chance of winning again, but is in no way bombproof.
As for Starluck, you'd never catch me backing him at Cheltenham for the reasons "Steeplechasing" mentions above. A back to lay proposition, but can't win. PC could win as he has an engine and is gritty and tough which will help up the hill. Starluck would have to win it in the manner of Binocular (on the bridle) as he won't find anything in a battle, and he isn't that good. As for prices, this is a really open race, but Binocular is definitely too short for me in an already quality field with some potential improvers.
I was a big supporter of Tidal Bay in the World Hurdle last year having backed him at around 300. I do think he suits hurdles much better than fences. His jumping of fences is too sticky, and his attitude in the majority of races these days is a majo