Cheltenham Festival
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Surely this is a cracking each way bet.
His Festival form reads 21122
Nicholls says he will get him hyperfit at home and send him straight there.
In the last 2 Gold Cups he has run 2nd despite interrupted preparations both times.
Showing no signs of age catching up with him judging by Hennessy run which the ratings gurus say is up with his best.
All in all i think the 8/1 NRNB on offer is great value and im in!!
His Festival form reads 21122
Nicholls says he will get him hyperfit at home and send him straight there.
In the last 2 Gold Cups he has run 2nd despite interrupted preparations both times.
Showing no signs of age catching up with him judging by Hennessy run which the ratings gurus say is up with his best.
All in all i think the 8/1 NRNB on offer is great value and im in!!
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The place part of the bet certainly stacks up. Hard to see him bigger than 2/1 in the place market on the day, unless there are some fairly dramatic developments adversely affecting the horse between now and then. If you fancy his chances of winning, the win part also looks reasonable value against the 9/1 available on here without the NRNB security offered.
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i8 cant see how he can possibly win a gold cup now
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I agree.
If he turns up in the same form as the recent Hennessy, he'll take some beating, imo. |
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Thing is he will go into the race a fresh horse as he is not running again till then.Bearing that in mind,and With Sam Thomas back on board,i expect a similar tactic to that when he won the race,a tactic he has not been asked to do again since.
Big chance imo and value at current prices. |
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lets not forget guys he was beat 17 l and was being cantered over by diamond harry a very long way out . also didnt seem to have the normal tactical speed to me . i dont think hell win another race
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Stormey some valid points there. At level weights must have an outstanding chance come March. As for beaten 17l with Diamond Harry cantering all over him!! I should hope so carrying 26lb less for 3.2 miles around Newbury!!
I think Denman with the right prep will go very close in the Gold Cup in March.Denman has finished 2nd the last 2 years with terrible preparations.( 2009 heart problems 2010 fell at Newbury) Il be with Denman come the Festival! |
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Logically there is no reason to think Denman will not beat Harry and Burton at Cheltenham.
If the Hennessy was a level weights race he would have slaughtered them both and be joint favourite for the Gold Cup today. However although it looks like Denman has not deteriorated much at all, age must be catching up now, with him and Kauto - just look at how many 11 year olds win the Gold Cup. Its a nostalgic punt on Denman for me despite all the above. |
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This will be Denmans last Gold Cup,if they think the horse is A1 after all his problems then we could see Denman raced very differently,that would put everyones jumping under pressure,8-1 nrnb,one last battle my old friend,yes im in.
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He will be an 11yo in March, last years novices look a good bunch, would rather oppose him than back him.
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Thanks for the replies some food for thought.
A few points id like to come back on. The age thing is an obvious target and i can see where people are coming from but my take on it is that Denman Kauto and Imperial Commander have not been over raced and set such a high standard, which i cant see the others reaching, despite their advancing years. As for Diamond Harry winning the Hennessy fair play to connections who i think got their tactics spot on however will they be so forceful in the Gold Cup off levels?? I hope Sam Thomas rides Denman exactly as he did when winning the Gold Cup taking it up with a circuit to go and turning the screw. If this happens and Denman runs his race i cannot see how 3 can beat him. |
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i totally disgree i honestly think if he met diamond harry in the gc and both were fresh i think diamond harry would beat him. i thought it ws an unbelievable performance from diamond harry i expected him to be held up and the jockey just rode the race perfect very confidently and went some gallop imo i thought he might have problems staying the trip but none of it. the denman of last year would have been alot closer to winning saturdays race .
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So how do you want Diamond Harry ridden in the Gold Cup dananderson?
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As I diehard Kauto Star fan I must say the 8/1 looks fantastic. Don't read into stats about 11 year olds too much, it'll only be Denman's 2nd race of the season. His enthusiasm is still there, and I think you can safely draw a line through that Punchestown race.
Would you get 8/1 on the day? Would you f*ck! He'll be 3/1 with bookies on course going one sixth of the odds for ew. |
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Dan, 17 lengths over 3m2f is not very far. It sounds like he was well beaten but like I said, 3m2f is a real stamina test so throw in the wight concession it rates as a massive performance.
I understand the Age angle putting people off, but Denman has broke STATS all his life and his hardly you average top class horse. He is a top,top class horse. |
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* weight
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Love the horse but cant see how he would reverse placings with IC
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aintree,scotish national,punchestown last year ,march is a long way off and i,d be ready for an,the horse is flying and we might give him a run statement from pumpkin in the next month or so
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"the denman of last year would have been alot closer to winning saturdays race" . Dananderson Denman was carrying 8lb more this year than last and the ground was a lot quicker this year. Denman runs at 11st 12lb everytime. Think its a stupid statement to make.
The top ratings people say that Saturdays performance was a career best!! |
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You think Denman would turn the tide on IC anyway?!
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Its possible.He will go into the race a fresher horse than last season,and imo will be ridden differently.Not saying he will reverse placings,but its a definite possibility.
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I agree he has more of a chance than anything else imo but i dnt see it
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Well IC is worthy fav imo,but Denman and Kauto are not finished yet.
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We will see in the KG about Kauto i suppose, IC has a year on them age wise and that could tell
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Yep,that and the fact he won last season,is why he should be the fav
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Yeh, i could argue this is a better GC renewal than it was said to be last year
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